Bitcoin - Key LevelWhats going on traders, today I am analyzing BTC/USD on the 1D chart.
After price reached the 10,000 level, investors are now thinking with logic and not hype and enthusiasm. Reaching this level was the pique of many Bitcoin analysis that I have seen all over TradingView and my Bloomberg Terminal. I believe now the level was hit, a correction is due.
Price recently showed 2 huge doji's, showing major indecision. I believe this is the bulls running out of steam and bears starting to nudge the market into submission.
I am expecting price to correct. On the chart, I have outlined a few possible places for BTC/USD to correct to on the chart.
The correction measurements are:
Correction move to 8100-7500. Then price will regulate and continue its intended trend.
Correction move to 5530. I believe this will be the maximum correction the pair will have.
Bare in mind that however strong an instrument is, however compelling it is, however amazing it is performing, it will ALWAYS CORRECT. A correction is not a sign of a change of ideology, it is simply a sign of trading.
Always remember, trade your CHART and not your MIND. If you do this you will be a successful trader always.
In my related ideas, I have posted my previous BTC/USD analysis. If you review both of these analysis together you will see how I have come to this analysis.
I will be updating this analysis as the trade progresses. Leave a like & follow to keep up to date with my analysis.
Signalspackage
AUD/USD - Downside LikelyHi traders, hope you're all having a good weekend.
We have a potential setup forming for AUD/USD on the 4H chart with a breakdown trade.
This could be an excellent shorting opportunity. I have tested a few hypothetical trading scenarios that could come into play when the FX market opens later. Each time, I have got over an 1:2 Risk to Reward.
When analyzing the pair, I discovered that price seems to react when it hits specific technical levels. Each time price hits the sideways resistance, it seems to test the resistance, and price stalls, and falls into the lows. I then zoomed out on my chart, and drew the line acting as sideways resistance further back. I was surprised to discover that the sideways resistance line I'd drawn had been having a strong affect on price for a very long time (Since May 2017).
With this information, I now knew that the sideways resistance line I'd discovered was more likely to be reliable, because it had been having an affect on price for a long time. I then discovered that price is currently at a horizontal support level as well, and is about to break the support level. If price breaks the horizontal support, coupled with the discovered sideways resistance, I believe these lines will act as a very strong resistance ceiling.
At the resistance line there is multiple reversal candlesticks showing weakness. And a clear Fibonacci retracement was hit. This further consolidates that we have hit a resistance level in play.
I am expecting a down move of 55-100 pips. If price is not affected by local support levels, it will achieve the full 100 pips. Only if a minor support affects price it will not achieve target.
Upon using a Stochastic indicator on this instrument, I discovered a strong hidden bearish divergence. I am personally not an indicator trader, but to those who do may find this information useful.
Do remember that price needs to open below the current price & support level, to be favorable to trade. So it is important to watch this trade carefully before considering a position.
I will be posting updates on this trade below as it progresses, so like & follow to keep at to date with this analysis.
If you have any questions or queries on this trade, feel free to connect.
NZD/USD - New Uptrend OpportunitiesTraders I recommend reading this entire post so that you fully understand what I have done to come to my analysis.
NZD/USD looks like a long opportunity on the 12H chart.
After analyzing this pair, I discovered that price appears to be moving in patterns. Price seems to have an impulse leg, and then has a corrective leg which measures approximately 124 pips each time, before the next impulse down move begins.
When I began analyzing the pair, I started by measuring the downtrend legs. I discovered that each correction seems to be around 124 pips. Price has recently hit a bottom, and has had some upside, and is showing signs of a new uptrend. Sure enough, when I measured the upside legs, we had a measurement of 124 pips as well. Despite the change of trend, the measurement of the corrective legs remained intact. This shows that these cycles are obviously having an affect on price.
With this information, I was able to predict and plot the next move on the chart. I have calculated each cycles move by measuring the amount of points it moved before a new impulse. After I found there was an approximate 124 pip corrective move before each new impulse, I was then able to replicate a cycle at around 124 pips to see the future direction of the instrument.
I am expecting an up move of 124 pips which will complete at around 0.7029. Below I have illustrated the calculations as to how I came to this conclusion.
The principle of the cycles being used here is that every time there is an impulse leg in either direction, there is a corrective move of 124 pips, and then an impulse move which exceeds the impulse leg. (With exception of Cycle #1, which was the first leg of the trend and excepts this rule). With this information we can calculate (using data from the downtrend corrective cycles + Cycle #1 data) where cycle 2 is likely to end up. Using the calculations below we can make a mathematical assumption as to where price will lead.
Cycle 1 = Cycle 1 + 124 = 0.6905
Cycle 2 - Cycle 1 + 400 = 0.7029
Following these calculations, we can expect a reliable short term up-move, by using the previous trend cycles from the downtrend. Since there is a change of trend, it will interesting to see where these cycles end up. We could get a lot more pips than we bargained for.
Do remember that price may have a correction before Cycle #2 begins. It is important you watch this carefully before considering a position.
I will be posting updates on this trade below, so leave it a like or follow so that you can keep up to date with this analysis.
BTC/USD - Upside OpportunitiesTraders I recommend reading this entire post so that you fully understand what I have done, and how I have came to my analysis.
BTC/USD looks like a long opportunity on the 4H chart.
After analyzing this pair, I discovered that price appears to be moving in patterns. Price seems to move up, have a corrective move, and then move up again, exceeding the previous top by around 400 points every time.
With this logic, I was able to predict and plot the next move on the chart. I have calculated each cycles move by measuring the amount of points it moved up before correcting. After I found there was an approximate 400 point move before each correction, I was then able to replicate a cycle at around 400 points to see the future direction of the instrument.
I am expecting an up move of 400 points which will complete at around 8780. Below I have illustrated the calculations as to how I came to this conclusion.
The principle of the cycles being used here is that every time there is an up move, there is a corrective move, and then an up-move which exceeds the previous move by approximately 400 points. With this information we can calculate (using cycles 1+2 data) where cycle 3 is likely to end up. Using the calculations below we can make a mathematical assumption as to where price will lead.
Cycle 1 = Cycle + 400 = 7980
Cycle 2 - Cycle 1 + 400 = 8380
Cycle 3 - Cycle 2 + 400 = 8780
Following these calculations, we can expect a reliable short term up-move, using previous trend cycles to predict a reliable, yet conservative move.
Do remember that price may correct before cycle 3 initiates. So it is important that you watch this trade carefully before considering a position.
I will be posting updates on this trade below, so leave it a like or follow so that you can keep up to date with this analysis.
CAD/JPY - Bearish OutlookToday we have a potential setup forming for CAD/JPY, on the 1H chart, with a swing trade.
This is an excellent short opportunity with a just over 1:2 risk to reward.
Price has been struggling to find upside for sometime now, and a move to 86.90's is on the horizon.
If price breaks the 87.40 support level, I am expecting a breakdown to our measure target.
This trade could potentially turn into a good long opportunity in the near future if it bounces at our target level.
Feel free to connect with me below :-)
EURNZD watch for a sell.Hi traders, I hope you all had a wonderful weekend.
I am expecting EURNZD to fall. Price is currently at a long term high, and is showing topping behavior. Coupled with this, price is showing a very compelling dark cloud cover and is showing a short in the bigger picture, expecting further downside.
Best regards,
Tom_Killick
EURNOK buy setupHi guys,
The pair EURNOK looks like a buy. The pair nicely landed on the resistance turned support structure, and there has been a nice bullish engulfing signal and a clear follow on to the upside after. It is clear that there is more upside to be seen, and I am expecting a move to at least the previous structure high, as outlined on the chart.
Best regards,
Tom_Killick
NZDUSD down move into the mean priceHi guys, and I hope you all had a great weekend.
NZDUSD looks good for some downside. I am expecting a move to the lows of the range. The price should break down, correct, and then have another down move where I expect price to finish at the mean price level. There is also lots of structure at the mean price level so this is a good indication that the target we have is legitimate and more reliable.
Best regards,
Tom_Killick
USDTRY sell setupHi guys,
The pair USDTRY looks like a sell. I am expecting a retest of the above moving averages, or highest the previous swing high, before the breakdown. I expect then a break of the sideways support level where I am expecting a strong drop to the downside.
If you don't know where to enter or exit this trade, you are NOT ready to trade live funds.
Best regards,
Tom_Killick
GBPUSD buy setupHi guys,
I've lately had many people messaging me and asking my whereabouts lately, as I've not posted on this site for some time. For those of you who don't know I'll explain it here so that you're all informed.
I've been working on my managed fund lately. For those of you who know, I am a full time fund manager, and as it's half year period, I have been EXTREMELY busy, and have not had any time to commit to posting my free content for the community. Saying this, my time has now significantly cleared up and I am back like before, and will now be making my contributions as before.
It feels really good to be back, and I'm excited. Just so you all know, my services are all business as usual, so contact me if you need anything.
Now, to analyse.
The pair GBPUSD looks good for a buy setup. The pair lately broke a minor resistance level after a pullback following a bullish impulse leg. I suspect price will now move up to the highs, and create a 3 wave move. Target is the measure move of the first wave.
All the best,
Tom_Killick
USDJPY sell setup.Hi traders,
Keep an eye on this one for downside. I am expecting price to roll over to the lows, in the form of a 3 wave move. I expect price to hit the 3 wave measure move target, where previous support structure is located. Use your tested trading strategy to find the move.
Best regards,
Tom_Killick
USDCNH weekly outlookHi traders,
Keep an eye on this one for a short into the coming weeks.
Price could move straight down after structure breakout right into the lows, in the form of a new down impulse. Alternatively, price could break structure, and retest structure. ALWAYS USE YOUR TESTED TRADING STRATEGY TO TRADE. IF YOU DON'T KNOW THE ENTRY AND EXIT LEVELS THEN YOU SHOULD NOT BE TRADING.
Best regards,
Tom_Killick
USDJPY watch for a buy.Hi traders,
USDJPY looks like a buy. Watch for a setup using your tested trading strategy.
It could move straight up the highs in one swing move, there is a possibility it could bounce off swing low before the move up. If it manages to break structure, wait for a corrective structure before any further buys.
Best regards,
Tom_Killick
GOLD sell setup.Hi traders,
GOLD has broken out. Watch for a sell setup using your own tested trading strategy.
Price could break structure as shown and immediately go the lows in the form of an impulse leg. Alternatively, it could retest the previous sidewards support as a resistance before the breakdown.
Best regards,
Tom_Killick
NZDCHF 60 sell setup.Hi traders,
NZDCHF looks good for downside. Keep an eye on this for downside. It could bounce off structure before the down move begins.
The pair looks weak, and looks as though it will break sideway support, after resisting on the horizontal resistance as well. This looks like a good area to look for a short setup using your tested trading strategy.
Best,
Tom_Killick
DOLLAR sell setup.Hi traders,
DOLLAR looks good for a sell on the smaller TF's. I particularly like it on the 4 hour chart, where it is showing early signs of a breakdown.
I am expecting either a straight breakdown to the 3 wave target. Alternatively, price could break the structure and retest the support as resistance before the breakdown occurs.
Please like and follow all my ideas so I am motivated to post more content for the community.
Best regards,
Tom_Killick
COPPER sell setupHi traders,
COPPER looks good for downside. Keep an eye on this one for an entry. I suspect that price will hit the 3 wave move to the lows.
I am expecting price to break down, in the form of a 3 wave minor move. There is a chance price will move higher before the move down starts, but with a tested trading strategy you should have no problem finding the entry level
Best regards,
Tom_Killick
USDNZD sell setup.Hi traders,
USDNZD looks good for a sell setup. I am expecting a nice move to the downside. Use your tested trading strategy to determine the best buy and sell levels.
There's a few ways this trade could play out, and how you play it entirely depends on your trading strategy and risk tolerance. I am expecting a bounce at the sidewards support level before a breakdown commences. Alternatively, it could break the sideways support, and retest the sidewards support as resistance before the break down takes place.
Best regards,
Tom_Killick