Gold and the next leg upGold looks like it's about to make a new leg higher but will it also drop 5-7% first? The dollar and gold tend to create very distinctive price cycles if you know how to look for them. Renko helps to see these price cycles and time seems irrelevant to them. I am seeing a cycle low in the works now but I'm not sure if it's complete yet. I will venture to say it's going to drop down into the 1700's before the next leg up but I'm not sure if we'll get that lucky. See my forecast on GDX (gold miners) and how this analysis could agree with that one. Smart money likes to flush the boys out so I am just expecting a wild ride here soon.
SILJ
#SLV Almost Ready for the Continuation#SLV Setting up a bullish pennant on weekly and daily time frames. High volume run ups are usually followed by a period of consolidation before a continuation/reversal. Once silver breaks above the upper trendline and clears 23.55, SLV should start its move to $30+ by the end of the year. This is just the start for silver and gold and if it isn't a part of your portfolio yet, I'd strongly consider it. Do your own due diligence as always.
Will the miners offer one more dip?I am wildly bullish on the miners and precious metals over the longer term but I suspect another corrective leg down. GDX has been forming a giant ascending wedge from 2013-2020 and just broke out of that pattern this year. The drop in March was just a small piece of that puzzle that flushed a lot of new & experienced traders out of the trade. I pointed out several times that it was potentially an extremely good buying opportunity. That turned out to be true and the miners have been one of my best trades this year. I'm not an expert on Elliott Wave Theory but I'm seeing what looks like 5 waves up that completed in August. Perhaps now price is still stuck in some type of correction before a much larger move takes place. Take note of the red flag on my lower indicator. There's clearly a trend there and price has not dropped enough to complete another touch. There's no rule that says it must but it's just something to watch. Be patient. Be smart. Do YOUR OWN homework. Follow price. Ignore emotion... and get ready!
The Absurdly Low Cost of SilverAny good trader or investor will tell you to buy low and sell high. Unfortunately, the masses tend to do the opposite- either because they follow the crowd into popular stocks/assets or they like something too much and make it personal (they believe strongly in something). In my opinion, the best way to actually measure value is to compare it to something. We all know TECH stocks are big right now- and they might continue to be for the next year or two. I don't know. But let's measure a hard asset against tech stocks to compare what is "low" vs "high". You can do this with oil, natural gas, coffee, lumber, toilet paper, etc.. In this case, I'm looking at silver compared to tech stocks (NDX). If you look at SILVER divided by the NASDAQ (SILVER/NDX), you get this really neat ratio that can help to identify the value of silver compared to the NASDAQ and look at the history of how the rotations work. You can be sure, SMART money is all over these ratio's. I prefer to buy low.
KGC- Gold/Silver mining play (Industry)As usual, demand for Gold mining stocks has risen with the ore rally. Mining stock such as KGC has outperformed major gold/silver mining ETFs and completely obliterated gold/silver ETFS since March.
It is a higher risk and higher reward play for investors who want to ride the gold/silver trend.
EV/EBITDA TTM, Price/cash flow TTM and many other valuation ratio indicate that KGC are undervalued compared to its peers.
The case for QUAD-digit silverIs it so difficult to imagine silver going 10x over the next 3-4 years? That would put the price over 290 per oz. What about a 30-40x move to over 1000 per oz? I can make an easy case for triple & quadruple digit silver over the next decade just by looking at the silver : M2 money supply. The creation of our currency = inflation. While this inflation (expansion) tends to go into financial assets first, it will catch up with the real economy in time. I believe deflation is temporary and the lag that we're witnessing is similar to the count down before a rocket takes off. Take a look at the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. We have a problem and it's going to catch up with us quickly. Look at the chart below of SILVER:M2 to understand where silver price is in relation to M2 money supply and how historically cheap silver actually still is..
SLV closing over 2016 August high of $19.71.On July 24th, SLV closing over the 2016 August high of $19.71. The next Fibonacci level (.786) is $23.48, then $26.93. On the options market, August calls for $22 was over 7000. Sept $22 calls over 12000. July 23rd, a $24/29 October call spread bought 20k in volume. FOMC meeting is July 30th and expecting jpow to say they are printing more money. Hope you all are banking on gold and silver stocks!, Have a great day! Cheers!
Newrange Gold Monthly breakout Newrange Gold Monthly breakout with highest monthly volume ever.
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B2Gold - Huge Volume TodayThe Breakout is confirming as a Trading Range formed with low volumes during the past few weeks.
Following a few weeks of low activity, very-large volumes were registered today.
Price is heading toward the next Resistance of the upper Ranging Channel at $7.8.
This movement could very easily push the price all the way to the next Resistance at $8.0 to a new all-time high.
Support at $7.25 and $7.5
Silver miners are looking good.2 possible counts.
The green count seems more likely because I see 5 wave subdivisions within the larger waves. We just reached the 1:1 fib extension and if we can continue upwards through there, our chances improve that this trade continues upwards.
Breakout will be confirmed if we reach $11.60
Gold/GLD Weekly Chart Video Shows What to Expect NextThis is my first video on Tradeviews and I'm still learning the software but I wanted to give it a try and share my overall analysis for what you should expect next in gold.
GLD GDX GDXJ JNUG NUGT SIL SILJ
I share my daily pre-market video each and every day before the market opens on my website
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SILVER Double Top Expected.end of January target is $15.91;
let's see if we can hit it. I'd like to see higher, but not likely in the short-term. I'm expecting not to break $16 this intermediate cycle; but very likely in the next one: come end of February to mid March, I think we then break resistance after a decent pull-back.
Silver finds support at $16.2Silver finds support at $16.2. COT futures data show that the Commercial Trader Short/Long Ratio is down to 1.23. This is a strong buy signal. The COT data can be seen on barchartdotcom and goldseekdotcom. Since USD has shown a lot of strength recently, it is reasonable to cost average smaller positions into this over the next 4-8 weeks. I am long 1 silver future and will open a half position in USLV in my 401k today.
SLV is a 1x long etf. USLV is a 3x long etf with an average volume of 2.9 million shares so it is highly liquid.
Silver Likely to See a Pullback Near-TermSilver has seen an unexpected rally to most and continues to show strength as holdings of silver-backed ETFs reach all-time highs. Since posting "Potential Inflection in SLV: Price Action and Options," (under CommoditiesTrader) SLV is up almost 22 percent.
However, near-term there will be a correction to work off the overbought conditions.
The RSI was quite elevated at 77, while the z-score hit a near-term high of 2.9
The +/-DMI is showing that price action still remains positive but the ADX is beginning to tick lower.
The stochastic indicator is currently over bought at 87.51/93.26
Of course, precious metals will move with headlines. Given the sharp two-day decline, the SLV looks promising between $15.90 and $15.60. If traders sell through the secondary uptrend near $15.60, we could see further selling to $15.
It's important to remember the risk is dynamic. Traders will flock to the safe-haven aspect of silver if more troubling news surface about European banks, Brexit and, simply, slowing growth.
A correction will only be healthy going forward. The weekly chart shows at $17 is a tough nut to crack - only seeing one close above this level since January '15.
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