$50 Silver"Decade of zero returns" for the stock market = Shortening Bear Market for Commodities
Price target = $50
Fractal backbone + Room in technicals for such move.
Price target was established in June 2021.
Time frame pushed up in anticipation of 2023 bear.
Silv
Cycle Low in Silver, Gold? Inflation Hedges Take Off NYSE:AG MCX:SILVER1! AMEX:GDX TVC:GOLD
It takes zooming out at least 20 years to feel good about buying gold or silver, traditional inflation hedges.
It's been a boring asset class since the Federal Reserve began its most recent monetary experiment, but as we all know, the piper will get paid.
Regardless - silver (shown) and gold are hinting at cycle price lows. After breaching a year-long trendline and triggering selling pressure, silver prices held support over the previous major low before forming what now may be a H&S Bottom, as defined by Edwards & Magee (1951).
SILV, Stochastic Oscillator left the oversold zone on Oct. 26This is a signal that SILV's price trend could be reversing, and it may be an opportunity to buy the stock or explore call options. Tickeron A.I.dvisor identified 63 similar cases where SILV's stochastic oscillator exited the oversold zone, and 57 of them led to successful outcomes. Odds of Success: 90%. Current price $9.36 crossed the resistance line at $9.09 and is trading between $9.58 support and $9.09 resistance lines. Throughout the month of 09/24/20 - 10/26/20, the price experienced a +8% Uptrend, while the week of 10/19/20 - 10/26/20 shows a -2% Downtrend.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SILV's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 14 of 17 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
The Stochastic Indicator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SILV just turned positive on October 09, 2020. Looking at past instances where SILV's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise, Tickeron A.I. shows that in 40 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
The 10-day Moving Average for SILV crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2020. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. Tickeron A.I. detected that in 13 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Following a +6.18% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SILV advanced for three days, in 231 of 271 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. Tickeron A.I. detected that in 259 of 286 cases where SILV Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.
SILV price channel - Upward trend continuesNice upward trend trading in a price channel. There was some pre-earnings profit taking, this was before silver's one-day price drop, but it has resumed its upward trend. Looking like it will soon re-enter the price channel. This dip is a good buying opportunity and I added to my position today.
SILV - Big Volume Surge Upwards Due To Permit In SonoraSilvercrest Metals Inc is a Canada-based metals exploration company. The Company is engaged in acquisition and exploration of mineral property interests in Mexico. The Company's projects include Primary Kimberlite Projects, Alluvial and Eluvial Projects and Tailings Re-Treatment Projects. The Company owns interest in DMI Minerals South Africa (Pty) Limited and interests held by the Company's South African Black Economic Empowerment partner Nozala Investments (Pty) Limited. The Company has interest in over two mineral concessions, Cruz de Mayo 2 and El Gueriguito, which are located in Sonora State, Mexico. The Company's Las Chispas, Sonora, Mexico property is located in northeast of Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico, and consists of approximately 20 concessions. The Company's other projects include The Silver Angel Property, The Estacion Llano Property and The Guadalupe Property, which are located in Mexico.
SHORT INTEREST:
241.11K (06/28/19)
P/E Current:
-75.93
Analysts Price Target:
$6.57
Analysts Recommendation: BUY
PERMIT Information Source: finance.yahoo.com
Silver Lining Up For Dull Move | $XAG $USD $SILV #silver $XAUTraders,
ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT:
A L/T look at $XAG suggest a protracted bearish correction in the shape of an Elliott Wave Leading Diagonal, based on:
1 - A deep correction from a 49.780 high reached on April 25th, 2011.
and
2 - Internal alternations of 5-3-5-3-5 waves, identifying the overall pattern as an EW's Leading Diagonal.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL;
Apart for the wave count, the predictive/forecasting model eyes the following target:
- TG-Lo = 9.655 - 20 OCT 2014
OVERALL:
While the scale of the chart might appear difficult to trade to retail traders, the emphasis here is put on a bearish bias that is not simply based on a sustained bearish trend born in 2011, but also on the wave count expectation of a termination at Point-5 and a separate predictive/forecasting model that defines a bearish target at 9.655.
A limited upside exists in the near interim, as price could attempt a shallow rally to 18.191, corresponding to a significant line-up of a then-triple support, turned now-resistance. This interim rally might occur following the recent sustained downtrend that developed since Point-4.
Look for a correlating action in the RSI to confirm these alternative moves between resistance and support in price.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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10-Year Treasuries Near Support | #TNX $XAU $XAG $COMP #ForexFriends,
This past April 15, 2014, I offered a relatively imminent value where the benchmark 10-Year treasuries would possibly reverse and start a new upward trajectory.
In this new chart, I would like to offer mitigating views from Fibonacci values, Elliott Wave counts, and an predictive analysis, each standing in contrast to one another, and offering lower values than the one imminent support defined this past April 15th, here: "$TNX: Early BULLISH Reversal Signal ... Confirmation pending" -
I decided to do this to offer the different types of traders (pattern, Elliott Waves, Fibonacci and occult geometrist) an array of technical angles, all calling for a relatively narrow support and potential reversal.
Please, refer to the chart for the overall technical commentary, under "Tech-Note". Also, in the link beneath the chart, feel free to review recent analysis for Gold, Silver, DOW Composite.
Thank you for your supportive readership and friendly referrals.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
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Get my signals, forecasts and analyses via Twitter.
- Alias: @4xForecaster
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$XAU vs $XAG Remains Bullish | #Gold #Silver $GLD #SILVFriends,
A quick note on this relative strength chart between Gold and Silver. Last October 10th, 2013, I offered a bullish directional idea based on the completion of a pattern of moderate/high reliability, called the "Kiss Of Death ("KoD").
As the pattern play out quite well, so did price action, as it is now ever closer to the targets defined at the time as well, namely:
1 - TG-3 = 77.75 - 10 OCT 013. Targets #1 and 2 were it as per the two remaining yellow lines @ 50.80 and 503.98.
and
2 - TG-Hi = 80.29 - 02 MAR 2014, defined later on as low-probability.
OVERALL:
In the Forex context, I would keep an eye on Gold-sensitive currencies, such as AUD, CAD and CHF, as well as NZD, which are positively correlated to Gold. So, a decline in this relative strength chart should alert the Forex trader to the possibility of such throughout effect.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting
Get my signals, analyses and forecasts on Twitter:
(Alias: @4xForecaster)
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Disclaimer:
- All my comments are founded on unshared proprietary as well as common knowledge of technical analysis: Do your own due diligence before trading any market/asset. Additionally, my signals, forecasts, analyses and directional opinions are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. Again, do your own due diligence first, then seek financial advice from a licensed professional, and only then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
19.065 Target Hit; 18.815 Target Open | $XAG #XAU $SILV #GLDTraders,
A quick target-hit announcement: Target defined last April 15th was hit - See analysis here:
System continues to see further downside. Floor is not open to 18.185 ... And below as well.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
TradingView.com
---------------------------------
Get my signals, predictive analyses and forecasts on Twitter.
- Alias: @4xForecaster
---------------------------------
Overview of $XAG $XAU $JPY $AUD $NZD $CAD $CHF $USD #forex $TNXFriends,
Last January 25th, 2014, I defined a bearish target as TG-1 = 18.815 - 25 JAN 2014, and offered the following note:
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#XAGUSD: Predictive Analysis / NEW Target | #XAG #XAU #Silver #Gold
- For the record, chart annotated as: "xagusd - 2014-01-25 - h4- new TG-1 = 18.815 - 25 JAN 2014 - 4xquad forecasting"
TECH-NOTE:
#Silver remains under bearish pressures. Predictive analysis remains bearish unless market reversal events occur to contradict current bearish outlook. High-probability target offering highest support is defined as "TG-1 = 18.815"
- David Alexandre Alcindor
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(Source: www.facebook.com - That short analysis can still be view on my former 4xQuad.com site - I have since migrated to this focused, professional site)
As of today, I have defined a higher probability interim target, defined as: TG-int. = 19.065 - 15 APR 2014. Considering global fundamental threats (Chinese market softening and imminent housing market collapse), I expect related commodities to under-perform (and that's a euphemism for my professional gold trading friends - they know who they are - who have tried to convinced me of a rallying in the precious metals.)
Metals have maintained their forecast courses, and at these levels nearing targets, I expect a significant relief rally could occur, but this would be technically driven (not by current fundamental merits), as in this $Copper chart:
$Copper - Potential relief rally to 3.180, per March 11th predictive analysis and forecast:
-
However, this relief rally is becoming less probability as markets are reacting to a broad commodity depreciation.
On the Forex side, look for significant decline in the commodity-dependent currencies, such as the AUD, NZD, CAD and CHF. Here are my comments for each of these, plus TNX:
(... continues in comments underneath chart - TradingView has a word-limitation that forces me to truncate analysis. Sorry)