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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-14 : GapUp-Lower In Counter TrendGood morning, This video highlights what I expect to happen in the SPY/QQQ, Gold/Silver, and Bitcoin over the next 5 to 7+ days. Remember, I'm using my proprietary modeling systems, SPY/Gold Cycle Patterns, and other research to share a roadmap of expected price action 5- 7+ days into the future. I don't know anyone else who can do this research accurately and provide such clear trade/entry/exit signals. This week should be exciting as we'll see multiple opportunities in the SPY/QQQ and Gold/Silver. Bitcoin is nearing a Phase #4 (consolidation) trigger near recent highs. At this point, traders need to wait for a breakout of the recent range before getting more aggressive with BTCUSD. Let's get some this week. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
Silver Soars amid China’s Stimulus and Investment DemandSilver’s dual role in both investment and industry makes it highly sensitive to economic slowdowns but also well-positioned to thrive during periods of strong growth. Silver prices have surged 30% year-to-date, driven by a fourth consecutive year of supply deficit, soaring demand from the expanding photovoltaic (PV) industry, and spillover momentum from gold, which has also risen about 30% this year. However, unlike gold, silver remains well below its 2011 peak of USD 50/oz. With bullish sentiment building, the question remains—could silver catch up with gold’s blistering performance? CHINA’s STIMULUS SUPPORTS SILVER China’s broad stimulus announcement supports a bullish view on silver. The announcement of the massive stimulus package in China drove a 4% rally in silver prices. However, since then, further announcements have failed to drive a similar rally in silver. The scale of the stimulus package was the largest since the pandemic. The stimulus package included a 50 basis point cut in the Reserve Ratio Requirement for Chinese banks which is expected to free up about 1 trillion yuan of liquidity. The stimulus package also included a 20 basis point cut to the 7-day repo rate, as well as a 30 basis point cut to the medium-term lending facility. Over the past weekend, China announced additional broad stimulus measures, signalling a “significant increase” in debt. While the exact scale of new debt issuance remains uncertain, the scope and tone of the announcement reflect the government’s commitment to delivering sufficient monetary support to revive the struggling economy. The stimulus package benefits silver through multiple channels. It bolsters industrial demand by driving increased activity from PV and electronics manufacturers. Additionally, improved consumer sentiment is likely to boost silver consumption in the form of jewellery and electronics. RUSSIA TO INCLUDE SILVER IN PRECIOUS METALS STRATEGY According to a report by InterFax , the Russian Finance Ministry is considering adding silver to its State Fund's precious metal holdings. Although the volume of potential acquisitions remains unclear, this move represents a new source of demand for silver. PV PRODUCTION AND INSTALLATIONS REMAIN STRONG PV production continues to thrive, boosting silver demand. Data from Ember Climate shows that global solar installations are 29% higher than last year. This growth has remained steady throughout the year, with several agencies, including the IEA and S&P Global, continuously raising their forecasts for annual installations in recent months. Source: Ember Climate The growth slowdown observed in China last April has since reversed, with solar additions rising sharply and projected to close the year 28% higher year-over-year. The easing of installation curbs in June played a key role in supporting this renewed growth. Source: Ember Climate MASSIVE ETF INFLOWS SINCE JULY Silver ETFs have experienced significant inflows in recent months, indicating strong investor interest. Since July 1, cumulative flows into four U.S.-listed silver ETFs have reached USD 942 million. Notably, over USD 400 million flowed in following the Fed’s first rate cut in September. A lower interest rate environment encourages investment in non-yielding assets like silver and boosts industrial demand. COMEX SILVER OPTIONS SIGNAL BULLISH SENTIMENT Source: CME QuikStrike COMEX Silver Options positioning suggests a strong bullish sentiment. Overall OI put/call ratio is at 0.52 suggesting nearly twice as many calls as puts. Options skew points to higher IV for calls relative to puts suggesting higher demand. Moreover, bullish positioning has only increased since the disappointing announcement by the National Development and Reform Council (NDRC), China’s top economic planner, on 8/Oct with a large call buildup on the December expiry. Source: CME QuikStrike SEASONALITY POINTS TO BULLISH OCTOBER Seasonality in silver prices since 2015 suggests a bullish outlook for October. 78% of the time, the month has returned positive returns for silver with an average increase of 1.7% and a low standard deviation of returns. The outlook is even more bullish for December which has yielded a 4% gain on average. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP The fundamental outlook for silver remains bullish with support from China’s stimulus package, central bank interest, sustained PV demand, and ETF inflows. Silver prices have remained in an uptrend year to date due to the convergence of these factors. However, prices have struggled to cross past USD 33/oz, with this level acting as a strong resistance. Prices have retraced sharply from near this level thrice this year. The most recent reversal came after China’s stimulus announcement. Investors can express a bullish view on Silver using CME Micro Silver futures. Each Micro Silver futures contract provides exposure to 1000 troy ounces (1/5th the size of a full silver futures contract) and requires margin of USD 2,300 as of 14/Oct. A hypothetical trade setup using CME Micro Silver futures expiring in December offering a reward to risk ratio of 1.67x is described below: Entry: 31.595 Target: 33.66 Stop Loss: 30.36 Profit at Target: USD 2,065 ( (33.66 – 31.595) x 1000) Loss at Stop: USD 1,235 ( (30.36 – 31.595) x 1000) Reward to risk: 1.67x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX_MINI:SILZ2024Long
by mintdotfinance
2
Metals bull run has legs - Silver is gaining momentum!The gold-to-silver ratio is a key signal—a roadmap, if you will—showing us where we are in the cycle of precious metals. Gold typically takes the lead, but then, like clockwork, silver catches up, and fast. In recent months, we’re seeing that exact shift—silver is gaining momentum. We’re entering a phase where silver is primed to outperform over the next several months. The first conservative target? $44.3. But here’s the thing—if BRICS nations decide to step in, if they start stacking silver too, I believe we could be looking at a price much, much higher by the time this move plays out. Buckle up—this could be big.
GLong
by dabaint
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-11 EOD UpdateOverall, this week has been rock solid. Even though the markets moved downward after the US Treasury auction early this week, the recovery and rally on Thursday and Friday were right on schedule. Remember, I've highlighted my SPY Cycle Patterns more than three weeks into the future before the beginning of October. Mapping Daily price action like this is impossible for almost anyone. The idea that I can identify price patterns weeks and months in advance and attempt to identify where and when trade opportunities may exist based on these advanced patterns is of real value. I'm not waiting for price to move in some formation or setup, I know where price will likely base/bottom, or peak/top, and I know where opportunities should exist for profitable trades days or weeks in advance. Now, you've seen how these patterns work and how I use other advanced TA techniques to identify real opportunities. What are you waiting for... Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
6
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-11 : Inside Breakaway PatternHappy Friday. Today's Inside Breakaway pattern for the SPY should prompt a solid rally attempt - where the SPY/QQQ should rally higher to close out the week. I'm targeting the 580+ level for the SPY over the next 5+ trading days. Gold and Silver are moving into a Top-Resistance pattern. This suggests Gold and Silver will rally, form a peak, then roll slightly downward today. I'm still targeting the 2670-2680+ level for Gold as a peak today. Silver will lag, but will likely setup a peak near 32.00. Bitcoin collapsed, then recovered overnight - forming a very large Deep-V base. Now, this recent recovery is setting up as a Bearish Excess Phase Peak pattern and may likely roll into the Downward Flagging phase. Be aware, this type fo deep low was the result of a Bullish Excess Phase Peak pattern completing the full 5 phases - ultimately reaching the "ultimate low" with the Deep-V bottom. This current setup in BTCUSD suggests price will attempt to recover as long as the Deep-V low price is not breached. Volatility is here. Price ranges will continue to be volatile through and after the US elections. So be aware that news, data, or other items may cause price to react very violently over the next 2+ months. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
2
Gold & Silver Have Confirmed An Attempt To New ATHsWatch this video to understand how Fibonacci Price Theory suggests Gold & Silver are moving in a bullish price trend - attempting to break recent resistance levels. I believe Gold and Silver will continue to rally, reflecting global capital risk factors, and break to new ATHs before the end of 2024. My target for Gold by Dec 31, 2024 is $3030-$3250. My target for Silver by Dec 31, 2024 is $34.5-$37.50. Here we go. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
COMEX:SI1!Long
by BradMatheny
4
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-10 : Carryover in Carryover ModeToday's cycle pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ price action will be very similar to yesterday's price action. I believe the markets are starting to move away from the basing/bottoming phase and moving back into trending phase. Thus, I believe the SPY & QQQ will begin a rally up to highs reached before October 20-21, then form a top, and toll downward just before the US elections. Gold needs to find some support and move higher - away from the 2625 price level. It is critical that Gold stay above 2620 at this stage. if Gold falls below 2620 - there is a very strong chance Gold will move into deeper consolidation and fail to rally above the 2750++ level I expect. BTCUSD has already reached my lower support zone. I do expect Bitcoin to consolidate a bit near this lower price channel, but the next move is to either revert higher, or breakdown even further. Currently, I suggest waiting 20 to 48 hours with Bitcoin to let price settle on a new trend. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
Rebound correction Silver. H4 09.10.2024Rebound correction Silver Silver made a reversal downwards, which I wrote about in the last post Now the price has approached the margin zone and local support 30.20 from which they can make correction upwards. However, I believe that the fall will continue to the strong support zone 28.06-28.86 and in this zone I will look for culmination and a buy signal. Also, silver is now trading in the past profile accumulation area and if there is no reaction up, it will confirm the thoughts of a deeper decline. CAPITALCOM:SILVER
CAPITALCOM:SILVERShort
by KovachTrader
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-9 : Breakaway In Counter TrendToday's video goes over why I believe today will be somewhat quiet in terms of trending and expectations. As I suggested in the video, today is a good day to trade with only 20-30% position sizes - or to take a day off and go golfing. I don't expect any big moves today - even though today's pattern is a Breakaway in Counter-trend mode. I believe the markets will pause today - seeking support/resistance and trying to establish a range for a bigger move on Thursday/Friday. I hope you guys are learning how to use the Excess Phase Peak patterns more efficiently. They are not easy to learn - especially now that I'm showing both the Ying & Yang side of these patterns. They happen everywhere and can be very important when making decisions. Remember, price only does two things: Trends or Flags. That's it. There is no other type of price action you have to prepare for. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
Can SILVER BREAKOUT above 32.50?Silver (along with every other beaten down commodity) exploded on the news of China's stimulus! Unfortunately for silver bugs "somebody" was lying in wait with a mighty big hammer when it poked its head above 32.50. In a vacuum the fundamentals (supply/demand) are incredibly bullish. However in the macro context of China's housing and economic woes there is a bear case to be made for base and industrial metals. If Copper starts rolling over I expect Silver to follow. Raw cash injections might keep Chinese stocks afloat but I do not believe it alter the reality of the real economy and its effect on commodities. In addition to the issues with China, the US is at serious risk of a recession. 50 basis point cut has never been bullish. If you take the time to look at the last initial 50 basis point cuts it might curb your enthusiasm. I know... this time "its different" TECHNICALS: Silver may retrace to the $30 breakout level.... Great re-entry... if it holds... ( ; If Silver is able to hold above 32.50 the rally remains intact.
COMEX:SI1!Short
by TheSilverOracle
Silver H4 | Potential bounce off swing-low supportSilver (XAG/USD) could fall towards a swing-low support and potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 30.05 which is a swing-low support. Stop loss is at 29.48 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 31.13 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:XAGUSDLong
by FXCM
XAGUSD H4 | Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 31.12, which is a pullback resistance and a 38.20% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit will be at 30.13, an overlap support level. The stop loss will be at 31.79, an overlap resistance level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:XAGUSDShort
by FXCM