My new silver idea...Based on the Fed's adamant nature on raising rates over the next two meetings, I see weakness in the silver price. But not much more.
I think the Fed pauses and possibly pivots to easing after August when the true nature of the coming recession reveals itself.
Following that I see a rapid rise in the price of silver, in a similar time frame between 2008 and 2011. However I do see silver will retaking $50/oz much quicker than it did the last time.
Then the price of silver is in no man's land and we must base our projects based on measurements of silver compared to other investments or commodities.
Silveranalysis
SILVER (XAGUSD) Important Breakout🥈
It looks like Silver broke a key weekly demand zone this week.
Weekly candle closes in just 10 hours.
With a high probability, we will see a bearish trend continuation to lower structure levels.
Next demand zone on focus: 18.8 - 19.6 area.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Get long Silver for the long haul? This chart is a super zoomed-out view of Silver priced in U.S. Dollars going back about 10 years on a Monthly time frame. While I think a very good trade idea could be coming a little later this year (2022), I think the thesis is best illustrated on the longer time frame.
As you can see in the chart, Silver spent about a year and a half consolidating in a range between the high $18 range, to the mid $24 range. I've drawn a rectangle from this time period to the Volume Profile to show that a small value area was formed at these prices.
Since April 18th, Silver has been crushed - it has barely seen an uptick on it's way to declining about -17%. The broader view isn't much better, as it is down -16.5% YoY, and -6.5% YTD. Over that same time, Gold has held up much better and is up +4% YoY and +1.3% YTD. Consequently, the Gold/Silver ratio has been trending upward on a steady incline.
While its possible that the current consolidation range can hold, and Silver can sustain prices above $20 before heading back up, but I think its easier to make the case that Silver is weakening over the near term, and could break its range to the downside.
If you believe that inflation will be a problem for months, if not years to come, metals should eventually rebound and back up to retest the previous highs. A break below $20 would likely push the Gold/Silver ratio higher, and offer a fantastic opportunity to get long Silver. with the potential tailwinds of a dramatic price rise in the near future - both in terms of U.S. Dollars, and Gold.
If the break lower does come to pass, good candidates to enter longs silver positions would be either via Futures, or options in the SLV ETF. I'd also look to put positions on in the Small Exchange's Precious Metals contract SPRE . While this is product would give exposure to the entire precious metals complex, Silver would act as the driver to push it higher.
Silver could reverse from supportSince the 18th Aprile Silver's price has dropped almost in a straight line with a single significant green candle on the 4th of May.
Now the price is trading in the important 22 support zone and we can have a reversal at this point
The first resistance is just above 23 followed by important 24.
Buy dips under 22 can be a good strategy with negation if support falls.
Silver: JumpyWhile bears aren’t normally known to be jumpy, the bears on the silver market have just shown signs of scariness. They must have been so focused on their way downwards that they didn’t realize how close they had already come to the support at $21.98. Although they have shrunken back from this mark, we expect them to pick up courage again quickly – after all, they have been so strong and composed lately. So, the bears should push silver below $21.98 and towards the orange zone between $20.91 and $19.59, where wave iii in orange should end. Then, a countermovement should lead silver back above $21.98, where it should finish wave iv in orange before resuming the overarching downwards movement.
XAGUSD - SILVER - LOOKING FOR THE LONGWe're looking for the LONG in SILVER - XAGUSD
We have hit the 618 retracement of the previous swing ( 15.12.2021 - 08.03.2022)
We are approaching a 1.272 extension of the last minor swing (28.03.2022-08.04.2022)
There is a buying tail now except we have no real evidence of buyers yet.
We could see further decline to 707 or 786. The 786 happens to match up with the 1.618 ext. This would be a great buying area.
Keep your eye on this one...
SILVER (XAGUSD) Correctional Move From Key Level 🥈
Silver reached a strong structure resistance yesterday.
From the underlined blue area we see strong selling pressure.
The price formed a double top formation and broke a support line of a rising wedge pattern on an hourly time frame.
Now I expect a bearish move to 25.37 / 25.02 levels.
❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
Updated Silver AnalysisLooks like my previous look on silver was wrong. Looks like it is still within a wedge and we are looking for a breakout within the next few months. After the breakout I'd fully expect to see at silver at a minimum of $50 an ounce. Personally, I'm seeing costs of goods go up higher than that currently, with the addition of increased labor rates, some raw materials are close to 3x what they were a year ago. It's only a matter of time before silver does the same.
BIG BULL COMING ON XAG/USD (SILVER) 🤔XAG/USD (SILVER) is most likely to go much higher in the coming days. Most likely we are going for the 3rd wave and if not that then we are going for the wave C. Silver looks like finished the 2nd wave correction on a short-term basis, but we have a chance to come down around 61.8% of Fibo to finish correction. So we will wait and see price action to confirm the trend and after that, we can go long. The black line is preferred and the red one is an alternative for the short term.
DISCLOSURE - Please be informed that the information I provide is not a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of my work is for educational purposes only. All labeling and wave count have been done by me manually and I will keep changing according to the LIVE MARKET PRICE ACTION. So don't bias, hope on my trade plans. Try to learn Elliott Wave or other strategies and make your own strategy. Following is not that much easy. I am not responsible for any losses if u took the trade according to my trade plans.
#XAGUSD #SILVER #silver #xagusd
SILVER - Test will be at 28.8 $CPI data coming up this week (tomorrow) and safe havens could be ready for a flight.
Methodology. A consumer price index ( CPI ) is a measure of the average price of a fixed basket consumer goods and services purchased by households. It is one of several price indices calculated by national statistical agencies. The percent change in the CPI is a measure of inflation .
Understanding Safe Havens
A safe haven investment diversifies an investor’s portfolio and is beneficial in times of market volatility. Most times, when the market rises or falls, it is for a short period of time. However, there are times, such as during an economic recession, when the downturn of the market is prolonged. When the market is in turmoil, the market value of most investments falls steeply.
One Love,
the FXPROFESSOR
Silver: Tenacious B 🐻The rock band “Tenacious D” consisting of Jack Black and Kyle Gass must soon face competition, namely from “Tenacious B”. The bears on the silver market have rightfully earned this name by perseveringly dragging silver further down despite recurrent countermovement. The expression “to bear up” doesn’t exist for nothing, after all! We expect the bears to keep going and to lead silver below the support at $21.98 and into the lower orange zone between $21.39 and $20.27, where wave iii in orange should end. The following countermovement in wave iv in orange into the upper orange zone between $22.90 and $23.52 should serve as a booster for the greater downwards movement, which should then continue below $21.98.
SILVER | SHINNING RESISTANCE AHEADSILVER has bounced from its old support zone of 23.9 - 24.1, where buyers once again pushed the price higher breaking minor resistance of 24.52.
Currently price is trading above the 24.5 area and is heading towards the strong trendline resistance.
We are expecting the price to break this resistance this time and continue its upward journey towards 30 mark.
Trade your levels accordingly