SILVER | XAGUSD Weekly Outlook Oct 21st: Wait For BUYS!This weekly forecast is for Oct 21 - 25th.
After closing last week with a strong bullish candle, the week ahead maintains a bullish bias.
Be mindful of a short term pullback this week, as price tends to retrace after breaking swing highs. Just remain patient and wait for valid buy setups in this case.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
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Silverlongsetup
Silver - LONGThis is worth a try here - LONG;
Overall environment is a mixed bag, with a strong deflationary bias at the moment. Rates (and the $) is sitting smack in the middle of all possible ranges thus, anything can happen here - and most likely will. If this doesn't turn here (quickly!) then it's no good. (Gotta watch it closely, with narrow stops.)
XAGUSD Spot Silver Long XAGUSD on the 2H chart over the past month has ascended into a head and shoulders pattern
and then descended into a pivot on June 22nd. As it is now ascending, silver is a long trade
candidate. I see the stop loss as pivot low on 5/25 . Based on the volume profile and its
POC line, as well as the H & S pattern, the first target is the POC line at $ 23.3, the second
target at $23.45 which is the neckline of the pattern while the runner is $23.9 the horizontal
line of the top of the shoulders. I will take off 1/3 of the position at each target. Additionally,
I will raise the stop loss to break even upon getting halfway to the first target and to the first
target upon getting halfway to the second target. While leveraged on forex I expect
a high profit compared with the risk in the trade which will be risk off upon moving the
stop loss.
Get long Silver for the long haul? This chart is a super zoomed-out view of Silver priced in U.S. Dollars going back about 10 years on a Monthly time frame. While I think a very good trade idea could be coming a little later this year (2022), I think the thesis is best illustrated on the longer time frame.
As you can see in the chart, Silver spent about a year and a half consolidating in a range between the high $18 range, to the mid $24 range. I've drawn a rectangle from this time period to the Volume Profile to show that a small value area was formed at these prices.
Since April 18th, Silver has been crushed - it has barely seen an uptick on it's way to declining about -17%. The broader view isn't much better, as it is down -16.5% YoY, and -6.5% YTD. Over that same time, Gold has held up much better and is up +4% YoY and +1.3% YTD. Consequently, the Gold/Silver ratio has been trending upward on a steady incline.
While its possible that the current consolidation range can hold, and Silver can sustain prices above $20 before heading back up, but I think its easier to make the case that Silver is weakening over the near term, and could break its range to the downside.
If you believe that inflation will be a problem for months, if not years to come, metals should eventually rebound and back up to retest the previous highs. A break below $20 would likely push the Gold/Silver ratio higher, and offer a fantastic opportunity to get long Silver. with the potential tailwinds of a dramatic price rise in the near future - both in terms of U.S. Dollars, and Gold.
If the break lower does come to pass, good candidates to enter longs silver positions would be either via Futures, or options in the SLV ETF. I'd also look to put positions on in the Small Exchange's Precious Metals contract SPRE . While this is product would give exposure to the entire precious metals complex, Silver would act as the driver to push it higher.
Bullish SeptemberThere's a very clear bull pennant near completion for XAG.
The flagpole started at 12.134 (lower wick) and goes up to 29.592 (upper wick). More conservatively, the pole would be slightly shorter, but this range is what I view as the maximum potential move after the completion of the pattern, a somewhat drastic movement of 17.458.
According to the range of the flagpole added to the price at completion in the area of about 26.115, it indicates a potential move to as high as 43.573 in this run up.
The timing of this pattern seems to coincide with the completion of the ascending wedge of SPY and ES1! that's been steadily becoming concrete since March 2020. That ascending wedge seems to be headed for its terminus at just around the same time, if not a bit before. This makes some sense as silver prices tend to be reactive rather than predictive, so we can expect that silver's run-up (if it happens) will take place after any market correction.
Buy the dip on Silver support lineCommodities are rapidly increasing in prices while the US govt continues to pump trillions of fiscal dollars into Biden's infrastructure plan & federal unemployment benefits. Also with feds fund rates kept at 0% and recent reported inflation at 5%, negative real rates should continue to provide strong support for monetary metals like gold/silver. Additionally with green initiatives like solar panels and EV requiring more silver for production, we can continue to see strong industrial demand in the near future too.
Trade idea for Silver XAG/USDWhen we have a look at the chart we can see that Silver has been struggling to go below the 23.7 level for a while now. So this is the reason why I would consider to go long on it for now.
The thing that we need to keep in mind is that there are a lot of people going long on Silver at the moment so we need to make sure that out SL is low enough so that we don't get stopped out when there is some SL hunting going on.
If you like the idea don't forget to give it a like than
Feel free to share your idea for Silver in the comments below
If you have any questions, feel free to PM me.
SILVER ON THE GLOBAL RISE - LONG Dear viewers, followers, silver lovers, reddit traders, all in one (we are together)
Thank you for taking your time to read the information, that i am sharing with you all for free and backed by available research on internet.
Firstly, i will take the credit of being the early retailer that get into SLV last year in april when prices were hovering around $14, you can go back on my tradingview profile to read that idea.
I understand i will be questioned for this, but i simply am just using publicly available information, my countless hours of study and reading history to back up my idea on SILVER LONG.
Here we go!
Silver has been manipulated both ends, that being said Silver has been manipulated when it was "short" and as well when it was "long". But why?
The answer to that made me dig deep in to silver history from 1980's to 2021.
Silver is globally used in industrial sectors, recently in the last 10 years it became an important element in Automotive and Technology. Jewellery market consumption for silver is relevantly low as Gold is highly consumed in jewellery market, apart then that Gold just sit under a tight vault in banks.
From 1994 (the year i was born), silver reserve metric (q) was around 420,000 MT, in which after 2 years it raised to 1,570,000 MT, a staggering rise in mining sector around mexico, peru, bolivia, china and the rest of total 59 countries that produces silver around the world. America has by far being the biggest importer for silver since 1990's ever since gold standards were lift off by President Nixon.
During the early rise of computer and dot com boom, Silver met a giant rise in year 2000 to 1,860,000 MT and right after 2 years it dropped down to 430,000 MT. Since year 2002, Silver never went back up in reserve above 600,000 MT, which means the last time we ever had a lot of Silver available for consumption was year "2000".
Fast forward today in 2021, Silver reserve has shrunk down to between 570,000 MT to the lowest 400,000 MT. (WHAT DOES THAT MEAN) take a guess!
We have been running short on Silver since year 2004, price remained super cheap for Silver as low we saw $12 per oz in 2020 to the higher of $48 per oz in 2011 during Obama tenure.
Why recently Reddit Community have been pulling strings on going Long on Silver? Because historically it doesn't make any sense for the 15-1 ratio btw SLV & GOLD.
Meanwhile Gold remains all time high at $2075 in 2020 and Silver at $30 (2021)
Why is SILVER CHEAP? when other commodities are expensive?
Take a good guess?
From technical point of view, we have seen strong price manipulation since 1st of february 2021 when reddit pumped in over $230 million of contracts and hit new highs, and right after that it was dumped in the same direction by big banks, it could be JP Morgan or Someone out there leasing silver to private institutions for dumping (aka short squeeze). I HATE THIS GREEDY MOVE but theres nothing we can do about it, they are scared that we are all notbaly understanding the undervalued precious metal. This will EXPOSE everything about everything!
CURRENTLY ONLY 500,000 MILLION OF SILVER IN RESERVE IS AVAILABLE! (SUPPLY CHAIN) was over since 2004, but banks purposely kept the value for silver low (idk) for what BS reason.
The law of supply/demand that was stamped by Buffet in early 90's, Buffet was super big on SLV but until he found timid pressure, he had to sell off his positions. BUFFET WAS BIG SINCE 90'S.
"NUMBERS DON'T LIE" BUT THE BANKS CAN LIE
There's so much i can share about Silver, but i guess for that we will have to keep the conversation private.
Feel free to reach out to me, if you believe in Silver and it has been manipulated!
SILVER LONG
Entry: $25-$26
SL: $23.5-$24
TP1: $30
TP2: $32
TP3: TO THE MOON! ($100-$300) per oz
TP4: WEALTH FORVER (IM SURE YOU KNOW WHAT I MEAN)
Silver and AGQ Looks like a buyGreetings! Precious metals and therefor AGQ look attractive on several time frames for both traders and investors Here is a quick run down of why I am in AGQ as of today (p.s. this isn't financial advise, it is why I do what I do):
Price action just
retested previous horizontal resistance as support at 39.5
popped below the daily bollinger band and is recovering.
retested the 300 daily EMA as support
and the 9 seasons rainbow is suggesting we are crazy oversold
This reinforces my notion in the chart below that the flag pole created a falling wedge and we can reasonable suspect to see price action continue its way up the flagpole with this consolidation either bisecting or trisecting the total move. It is nice to see the flagpole hypothesis backed up with lots of bullish divergences as the chart shows below, with a rough target for silver futures.
A broader look at silver futures shows that price action has just completed a consolidation between the 0.5 and 0.382 fib channels levels and if the flagpole performs it gets us into a nowhere land and between the 0.618 and 0.786 retrace level. That is a pretty wide level but, as an optimist, I hope for overperformance.
The volume situation is looking absolutely lovely for blast off. The Volume Profile Visible Range is definitely something that you can use to see whatever you want so I use it with the Average true range (set to log scale here) to help me find an absolute low in volatility to help set the chart. After setting the chart properly I can then look at what price action would be doing. The Value area is set to contain 68% of price action and the fact that price action has found support on top of the value area, by interpretation, suggests we confirmed the first up-leg in this bull market. These are going to be heady times for precious metal bugs as there is a good chance that this move will set up a multi-year consolidation pattern as we see happened between 2004 and 2006 and them massive continuation and with all the quantitative easing going on I would expect a quicker consolidation this time around.
Out of everything in this post what is below is the furthest reach but it is still exciting to see a potential inverted complex head and shoulders on silver futures divided by nasdaq futures. Hell, even if I am wrong and price action just returns to the neckline this is a great chance to buy silver against equities.
The linked idea from yesterday has much of the same analysis as here but on gold. The other linked idea shows where I used a lot of the same patterns I did in this idea to nail the bottom on SPXUSD during the great dip of 2020. I have gotten pretty good at identifying these lows and getting good entries, the problem for me now is holding them closer to investments as opposed to trades. If you follow me you will see I now use the volatility stop and fib channels to help me make sure levels are met, but that isn't applicable to this post yet.
[SILVER/USD] One Of The Best Silver Trades In Our Lives!Hello and welcome everybody!
Today I want to share this Legendary silver trade that I spotted ( and for sure many other silver/gold bugs did too)
I'm already in this trade actually. I bought silver at the 2020 Q1 March bottom lol.
That is the lower white line at 14 usd. So practically Ze Bottom.
Bought it physical though in case fiat crashes/hyperinflation/civil war occurs so I got something to buy food with if we see a doomsday scenario.
The top white line is the silver All-Time-High price.
The green line is Ze buy-in line with a candle close over the green line on the weekly chart as buy trigger.
The green line is above all resistance in that area and will work as support for a test of the All-Time-High 120% away.
Stoploss for me would be a weekly candle that closes below the green line :)
We are looking at the monthly chart because it is the most relevant timeframe for this trade.
Last time silver went for the all-time-high it only took about 190 days after break of the green line to reach the top.
Remember it is highly likey that silver smashes through the old all-time-high and nobody knows where that bull-run will end.
When to sell? Many options. I dont really know tbh. I bought in lower so it is just a free ride for me right now.
Option #1
Sell below magical numbers/former resistance ( pyramiding out/ scaling out )
1# sell 33% at 33 usd (red line)
2# sell 33% at 39 usd (red line)
3# sell 33% at 43 usd (red line)
Option 2#
Hold and hope silver breaks all-time-high and if silver is rejected the sell trigger is a red monthly candle after the test of the old all-time-high.
Many other options. I would pick option #2 and buy-in again if the all-time-high is broken :) I will likely throw up a new trading idea by them :)
Good luck and stay positive & never give up.
Confucius_The_Great
Silver priceSilver price long term
Price zones
Silver has lost over 60% of its value since 2011 and appears to be priced below the cost of extraction, slowing economy resulting in copper and zinc mines closing is a bullish sign for silver but before price catches economic reality silver is going down first.
Silver is costly to dig out of the ground. While many of us agree that cost of mining is around $10.00 per ounce. The actual cash expenses of silver mining have to take into account the reality that silver mining is now not worthwhile at a price underneath $20 per ounce. Silver is a commodity that is deeply oversold from a technical standpoint with mining stocks in the zone buying and selling like penny stocks. Just take a seem at the weekly chart of Nevada Gold (NYSEMKT:ANV), which is commonly a silver mining employer -- the inventory is trading for simply 33% of book price and for simply $1 per share. yet silver has a long wat down first.
SILVER EXPLOSTION !! Gold / Silver ratioSupporting the SILVER EXPLOSION idea... here is the rising wedge on the Gold / Silver ratio chart.
Below is an example of a rising wedge from the BCH/USD chart that recently played out to give you an idea of how these can move.
Looking at the SILVER EXPLOSION chart, and using this as supporting evidence, only adds to the probability of much gains.
SILVER MONTHLY DEMAND ZONE HIT. WHAT'S NEXT?Hello everyone! I'm excited to say, that my region of interest has been hit! Been waiting for this moment since OCTOBER.
If some of you remember, in my last idea I said - region to consider buy orders are at $16.40-$16.60..
We had very bearish weekly close, so dips lower than 0.618 are possible.. Personally, I think this white zone is ideal for investors and long term traders. In short term we might consolidate before another leg up.
Next monthly supply zone is $21-23$ region.. For large swing traders - $22,54 could be ideal for profit taking. Not ruling out possibility of 1.618 fib being hit, but as we see very often - it might be front-run :)
So far, 2/2 trades were successful on silver! Let's continue this streak.
Check out all previous ideas!
This is not financial advise! Have a great day :)
Silver: Where Do We Go Now?I have focused heavily on the Gold run that I have called to perfection thus far and I have neglected Silver so I will post an update regarding Silver!
Silver, like Gold, is on the verge of a large bull run and historic break-out - this is only the beginning. I am expecting Silver to get 20.00 sometime in October, with a move to 17 again next week, and 18 in the next 2 1/2 - 3 1/2 weeks.
The most major retracements will be once we reach into the 28-30.00 range where we could give back 10-15% +/- 2% in the form of a correction. However, after that, expect some large and parabolic moves to record highs in 2021.
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Remain patient. Remain long. Do not short.
#1 The race to the bottom for 0 interest rates, and a global recession sometime in 2020, is all the information you need to know.
#2 The fact we got close to 16 but did not go below proved the fake bear flag. Welcome to the historic bull run.
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Many people have been DM'ing me on my recommendations for stocks for Silver (and Gold).
My recommendations for Silver are: Americas Silver Corp., and First Majestic.
- zSplit