Silvershort
Elliott Wave View: Silver Extending LowerShort term Elliott Wave view on Silver (XAGUSD) suggests that the decline from February 21, 2019 ($16.21) is incomplete. Structure of the decline from $16.21 is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Wave B of this zigzag structure ended at $15.63. Wave C lower has started and should subdivide in 5 waves. Down from $15.63, wave ((i)) ended at $14.88 and wave ((ii)) ended at $15.34. The internal of wave ((i)) subdivides as 5 waves of lesser degree. Wave (i) of ((i)) ended at $15.35 and bounce to $15.58 ended wave (ii) of ((i)). The metal then turned lower in wave (iii) of ((i)) and ended at $14.95. Wave (iv) of ((i)) ended at $15.16 and wave (v) of ((i)) ended at $14.88.
Bounce in wave ((ii)) unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure in lesser degree. Wave (a) of ((ii)) ended at $15.8, wave (b) of ((ii)) ended at $15.08, and wave (c) of ((ii)) ended at $15.34. Silver has since resumed lower and broken below wave ((i)) at $14.88, suggesting the next leg lower has started. We don’t like buying the bounce and expect bounce should find sellers in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at $15.34 stays intact
Silver Buy & SellAs shown in the chart, i believe silver is on its C leg, could extend further into the blue area or just go up from here. My TP & Sell zones are only a rough idea of where i think market will touch before it goes back down again.
DISCLAIMER
Please note that this chart is an opinion based chart only. Please trade at your own risk
Elliott Wave View: Short Term Weakness in SilverSilver broke below March 7 low ($14.96) and shows a sequence of lower low from Feb 21 high ($16.2), suggesting further downside is likely in the shorter cycle. The decline from Feb 21 looks is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from $16.2, wave (A) ended at $14.96 and wave (B) bounce ended at $15.64. Internal of wave (B) subdivided as a double three Elliott Wave structure where wave W ended at $15.53, wave X ended at $15.1, and wave Y ended at $15.63.
As Silver has broken below wave (A) at $14.96, this confirms wave (C) has started. An ABC zigzag Elliott Wave structure has a subdivision of 5-3-5. Thus, wave (C) lower needs to have at minimum 5 waves subdivision. Down from $15.63, wave ((a)) ended at $15.35, wave ((b)) ended at $15.58, and wave ((c)) of wave 1 ended at 14.95 low. Above from there we are currently in the bounce in wave 2 which should fail against 15.638 peak.
Potential wave (C) target can be measured as equal to wave (A), which comes to as low as $14.08 – $14.37. This will effectively retest the 2018 low at $13.87. Wave (C) may truncate and not reach the ideal equality at $14.08 – $14.37, but at least we should be able to see 5 waves subdivision within wave (C). Near term, while bounces stay below $15.63, expect Silver to extend lower.
Silver on turning pointSilver has reached an important resistance: the long term falling trend line! This line is coming from 2011.
A fight between bulls and bears is to be expected at this zone.
If the bears win the price will fall on to the lower limit of the trend channel (14.14$) - where we find also support from a swing trend line. Below that level the price finds another support on 13.91$ (fib retracement Zero and lower limit of the parallel trend channel).
RSI stays in bullish zone and is signalling strength; meanwhile MACD seems to give a new bearish sign.
It would be not too surprising if the bears make it this time.
But in longer term I expect the price to cross the resistance and to reach the circle.
The difference between investing now or investing at prices around 14$ isn´t very much. Some 8% to 12% or so.
This is no trading advice!!
Most analyst don't even understand the Gold and Silver marketToday's analysis, we would like to cover consequential fundamentals and technicals which can affect gold and silver prices in both short-term and long-term
let's start the update with gold prices-At the time of writing this report gold prices are down and trading at around $1223 and silver prices are sharply lower trading at $14.28 which implies that our short-term position is going quite well in white metal while gold prices are hovering around our entry price-
most important fundamentals
-Reports suggest that due to cybersecurity risks U.S is thinking to take some harsh action for a Chinese technology firm and may even suspend this firm for future trades which implies that The U.S- China trade war has no improvement-(Many investors and portfolio managers was looking into this matter especially gold-bulls as improvement in the U.S-China trade war would have a major impact(Bullish) for precious metals sector.U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi are scheduled to meet face-to-face in Argentina next week
-we need to see the fed cutting or pausing the interest rates hike which will ultimately drive the precious metals prices higher but as we already know fed rate hike seems not to stop very soon-Markets are expecting fed to raise rates in December and two another rates hikes next year, however, this expectation has been cut in half as previously market expectation was four rate hikes in the next year,Negative sentiment can also be seen in futures markets as bearish speculative positioning continues to dominate the precious metals
-Manufacturing PMI released today in U.S which will not cause any strong impact as data is very light whereas crude oil prices hit 13 month low of $51.71-The U.S dollar index was higher today and it seems there is much more room for USDX to move upward from this point however Asian equities were down for the day as you know Japan markets were shut down for a public holiday-however the most important thing to note is that downfall which we witnessed in U.S Stock indexes wipes out all this year gains and that's a big deal-
-Italy said it would not accept the pressure receiving from Brussels to review its big-spending budget, however EU countries are trying to make a poll regarding Italy budget and this poll will decide whether EU authorities will punish Italy with fines or not-
Technicals-we believes buyers should be very cautious at this point as we believe 1200 level will be easily broken and there is not much support until 1180. Gold -0.37% 0.17% 0.69% likely will not be able to support around its psychological level if the U.S Dollar keeps rising and there are numerous factors which are suggesting the future dollar strenth-The declined started in Asia-pacific trade after it went below the 100 days moving average at last week
overall it seems that our long-term position in gold -0.37% 0.17% 0.69% and silver -0.35% 0.49% 0.57% will be highly profitable in coming weeks-we are very bearish for the precious metal sector and we think the downfall has just been started. stay intact in our long-term positions as we do believe profits are likely to much higher soon)
Please, note-We do believe the major turning point in gold -0.37% and silver -0.35% is about to come in coming months but before that happens it's crucial to understand that the precious metals sector hasn't made their bottom yet, there is enough room for prices to go lower before we witness a substantial rally in gold -0.37% and silver -0.35% prices.
our previous comment
The midterm election has been already ended which resulted in the
Democrats now controlling the house of representative, at least they got the needed majority so now they would be able to control the House of representatives,
but what about gold -0.37% -1.22% and silver? let's come to the point
following the election the dow jones broke 26000 point, The S&P -0.13% -0.95% had made a quite good rally while the NASDAQ was the best performer among made a net gain of about 163-167 points(approx). The US DOLLAR 0.48% 0.27% had also made significant upward rally since the election has ended sitting over 96.50. The entire precious metals market is benefiting from dollar strength today but it's still holding onto respectable levels
our technical analysis suggests that the gold -0.37% -1.22% has its weak support at 1221.70 where the 100-day moving average stands and $1218 which is the 0.618% retracement-however we believe these levels are very weak and once gold -0.37% -1.22% will break below these level a free fall in gold -0.37% -1.22% and silver -0.35% 0.49% will follow- Gold -0.37% -1.22% price settles below the EMA50, to keep the bearish trend suggested on the intraday basis, waiting to visit 1208.40 level as our short-term next main target
LET'S MAKE IT VERY SIMPLESometimes it feels like this consolidation period in gold and silver is not going to over for months but trust me we have seen this kind of range bound movement in precious metal sector numerous times and then we witness an explosive breakout or breakdown in both of the precious metals? but there is no denying that we are in the middle of the boring times but we are expecting it to end very soon but the question is will this time we'll see an explosive breakout or breakdown in PMs?
However, Every analyst have their own idea about the same market while most of the analyst are either neutral or significantly bullish for the current market condition in precious metals sector but for us market is saying only one thing- Don’t get tricked by a false move
we witnessed gold to drop below $1214 level on Oct 31 which we believe was caused by the fund selling to take some profits for client statement purposes to recover some losses in the stock market-
Gold price tested 1227.00 level without managing to break it, waiting to surpass this level to reinforce the expectations of continuing the decline towards our main waited target at 1208.40, to keep our bearish trend scenario valid for today
USDX has also formed inverse head and shoulder pattern about which we informed you already-The breakout is already confirmed by numbers of daily closing candles and there are numerous sign pinpointing to the upcoming US dollar rally which is negatively correlated to the PMs sector but what's interesting is even the good economic numbers on Friday which helped to strengthen the dollar, didn't push gold and silver prices above,The market is likely to quiet ahead of the U.S midterm election and people are waiting to see how it's going to play out after tomorrow however opinion polls show strong chances that the democratic may win this midterm election by which we can expect a pressure in dollar and a slight move higher PM sector However we believe once this matter of election between Democrats and Republican will over this inverse correlation be back to normal which will help drive gold and silver prices to fall in a significant manner-
patience will reward us
please note- Hedge funds and money managers raised their net short position in gold to a three-week high in the week ended Oct. 30, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
Silver (XAG/USD) entry a Short Signal1. Long- term trend on D1/W1 bearish
2. Price came to Key level $14.39, bounced from it so many times and made a fake broke.
3. Potential profit in 4 times bigger than risk.
4. The price is moving to key buy level $13.66. Near that level we can look for a Long only.
Sell at: $14.30
S/L: $14.46
T/P: $13.76
C.C.L. — Candle created level
C.A.P. — Candle Approved level
F.B. — Fake broke
P.S. Push like and send to your friend if you like it.