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Silversignal

Silver stackers should see a bounce shortlyThanks for viewing everyone. This is typical TA, it might go up or it might go down (and I told you so in either case). But stick around anyway. After silver's top of almost $50 in 2011 it has made a clearly identifiable ABC formation correction of the intervening 8 years. If you squint just right, you can see the 5 wave wave (C) down too (complete with shallow wave 4 triangle and deep wave 2 correction. Wave 4 does not cross-over any of wave 1 price action (orange box - that also denotes the steepest price change - normally seen in wave 3). Recently there is a bottom forming after a quick rise from $13.700 to over $21 and a slow and steady price drop back to the swing low (low of 13.635 in December 2015). What I tentatively expect is a bounce from that level to around $22 (hopefully higher - very possibly lower). Retrospective fibonacci targets (to gauge if the correction is complete) are for wave (C) to equal wave (A) at ($13.768) and a 1.618 extension of wave 1 (at $17.032). Both have been met or exceeded. In my view this is a buy zone and I will be buying each month that the price is below $17. A word of caution; looking back a little ways into the price history (not displayed) pre-1980 to today. Silver rose from a sub-$2 base to exceed $50 in 1980. It then completed an ABC correction down to mid $4 range. This was followed by a weak wave C bounce and then the price slowly sunk lower to bottom at $3.50 in 1992 (10 years later). So, while the count holds up the price still slipped slightly lower in $ terms (more in % terms) before trying to set a new higher high. So, what? So, I am prepared for a potentially very long accumulation phase (last one 20 years) and also a potential price subsidence to below $10 (which will not change my plan). Remember everyone, no weak hands okay. Silver has been seeing increasing industrial demand but has been dropping investment demand. Why silver? Why not buy on an up-trending asset? 1. Silver is an asset with zero counter-party risk, and is my choice as a hedge against a (more plausible every day) debt crisis, 2. charts never repeat exactly, it could bounce strongly - but I don't expect it to set up for a new bull-run just yet, 3. The gold to silver ratio is indicative of silver being undervalued on a relative basis (hopefully when the GSR normalises to below 40 I will trade silver for gold - silver is my vehicle to acquire more gold, 4. If there is a currency / inflationary crisis, there will be little warning and I want to be in at the bottom for the next move up, 5. Silver is money, 6. COT commitment of traders reports show commercial traders reducing short positions significantly, 7. Commercial banks have created the worlds largest ever silver stockpiles - removing supply from the market. Asset allocation: 50% fixed income instruments, 30% low PE ratio (low debt, high return, recession resistant) stocks, 5% diversified commodity ETF (at a 30 year low), 7.5% silver, 2.5% gold, and 5% crypto. While I am here, I would like to plug bullionstar dot com in Singapore. They have low premiums, cheap vault storage of 0.59%pa (silver - lower for gold). E.g. A Johnson Matthey 100oz silver bar (as at right now- prices change per minute) is USD1545.05 for a low volume purchase on 1-9 bars (cheaper than one US based site I just checked at USD1575) and zero sales tax on bullion. I will likely choose their 1kg zero spread bar (at low volumes it has a spread but it is lower than normal) and possibly small nibbles from their bullion savings program BSP where I can buy as little as 1g at a time. I just thought I would pass than on because it took me a long time and searching multiple countries to find silver at a reasonable price.
TVC:SILVERLong
by flyinkiwi10
Gold / Silver Ratio PredictionExpect the gold/silver ratio to leap higher as silver underperforms Gold. Gold will rally but silver will remain muted, at least for a while. Then as the Gold/Silver ratio hits resistance at around 100 a clear buying opportunity for silver will emerge. Gold should rally as the Gold/Silver ratio collapses and therefore Silver is a screaming buy at these levels. Inflation picking up will be the key for silver and the gold/silver ratio collapsing. The Fed will lower interest rates, attempt new rounds of Qe to avoid a recession, but unfortunately all they will achieve will be inflation. Follow the breakdown of the ratio as it hits the upward resistance line, then it'll be off to the races for the pm bull market.
TVC:GOLDShort
by WinstonWolfe
1
Elliott Wave View: Silver Extending LowerShort term Elliott Wave view on Silver (XAGUSD) suggests that the decline from February 21, 2019 ($16.21) is incomplete. Structure of the decline from $16.21 is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Wave B of this zigzag structure ended at $15.63. Wave C lower has started and should subdivide in 5 waves. Down from $15.63, wave ((i)) ended at $14.88 and wave ((ii)) ended at $15.34. The internal of wave ((i)) subdivides as 5 waves of lesser degree. Wave (i) of ((i)) ended at $15.35 and bounce to $15.58 ended wave (ii) of ((i)). The metal then turned lower in wave (iii) of ((i)) and ended at $14.95. Wave (iv) of ((i)) ended at $15.16 and wave (v) of ((i)) ended at $14.88. Bounce in wave ((ii)) unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure in lesser degree. Wave (a) of ((ii)) ended at $15.8, wave (b) of ((ii)) ended at $15.08, and wave (c) of ((ii)) ended at $15.34. Silver has since resumed lower and broken below wave ((i)) at $14.88, suggesting the next leg lower has started. We don’t like buying the bounce and expect bounce should find sellers in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at $15.34 stays intact
FX:XAGUSDShort
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Silver (XAG/USD) entry a Short Signal1. Long- term trend on D1/W1 bearish 2. Price came to Key level $14.39, bounced from it so many times and made a fake broke. 3. Potential profit in 4 times bigger than risk. 4. The price is moving to key buy level $13.66. Near that level we can look for a Long only. Sell at: $14.30 S/L: $14.46 T/P: $13.76 C.C.L. — Candle created level C.A.P. — Candle Approved level F.B. — Fake broke P.S. Push like and send to your friend if you like it.
TVC:SILVERShort
by Yuriy_Bishko
12
Silver downtrend completeHi all, Silver is at an interesting point right now. I am waiting for a set-sup to go long on it due to: - The five waves down have completed, - RSI is at very low levels (and showing a small bounce. There is some reason to be cautious: - This may be wave A of a larger ABC correction down, - Silver declined 9% after breaking the lower trend-line but I expected it to go lower if basing the drop on the width of the triangle formation, - The larger-scale ABC correction (in which the triangle is wave B) would put the price a lot lower if the C wave extended 100% of wave A (that it didn't indicates strong support). However, it appears to me that a valid 5 wave formation has completed in the short-term. At a minimum I expect a strong ABC correction up - that may approach the bottom trend-line of the symmetrical triangle. Afterwards, I will be watching closely for a wave 1 and 2 forming either upwards or downwards. I will probably post here when this is identified. Unfortunately, I am not able to invest in physical silver because there isn't much liquidity where I live and they offer much lower buy back rates. If that wasn't the case I would have started to accumulate physical silver due to my TA and: - Silver is closer to its bottom than gold is IMHO, - The GOLDSILVER Ratio is very high at 80+ and a correction in the favour of silver is on the cards (historically this can be seen to be the case - 83.5 is the highest in the last 20 years), - GOLDSILVER is finishing/ finished wave B up and it seems to have formed a smaller-degree wave 1 and 2 down and if that is the case, expect a sustained bull-run of silver against gold / general appreciation of silver, over the next few months, - Silver is on sale right now and the risk vs reward of silver looks quite good, - Silver is mined at approximately the rate of 10 units per 1 of gold and demand for silver is stable if not increasing. If you value gold I view buying silver, selling at the peak, and buying gold as one of the better avenues to achieve this within Commodities. This is 95% Technical Analysis with a small amount of fundamental analysis and is published for my own education and to easily keep a track of the targets / instruments I trade or want to be trading. Disclosure: I am not presently in any position in silver, I am a newcomer to technical analysis, and am not a finance professional.
COMEX:SI1!Long
by flyinkiwi10
SILVER TO GO LONG OVER THE YEARS!No long explanation here, just thought i'd do a quick share on markets I am watching to get in on for the long haul. If you read most of my charts in the past 3 weeks, you should know how I trade. Feel free to use this as your guideline. This is long-term trade so atleast a year upwards before you look into collecting your winnings. I don't really suggest where to get out, you decide for yourself, but if you want my suggestion on where to consider an exit then feel free to ask. Wait to bottom out and buy in at trend reversal to the bull side at below suggestions; 1st/top yellow line sitting at 13.723 2nd/bottom yellow line sitting at 9.683 DISCLAIMER! I suggest working on the monthly view (1M) timeframe, using the MACD , Stoch RSI and CM_Ultimate_MA__MTF_V2 (combo of multiple indicators created by someone and accessible if you have pro account on tradingview). Do set stop losses but be generous with how much room you allow for this due to candle wicks and there is also the possibility to hedge yourself, for more confident traders. All comments and questions welcome, thanks.
TVC:SILVERLong
by Dani0
2
It's Just The Beginning Not The EndIn the light of today's huge decline,we decided to move the stop level below our entry point,so at the end we are locking-in some of the profits while giving the space to letting them grow further. please note-The decision we are taking is a preparation for a possible huge price drop,it simply does not reflect the likely outcome. At the moment of writing this update our full 250% net short positions in gold -1.31% -1.65% , silver 0.14% -0.53% and mining stocks are well justified from the risk and reward perspective. -If you have been following our trades for some in trading view or if you are our premium subscriber.you made a lot of money in this year and you know technical analysis and daily written updates matters a lot but if you haven't you might be thinking why you should even care about these charts and daily updates instead of just watching and observing the real-Gold supply and demand , geopolitical conditions, interest rates and so on. you are making a very novice and dumb mistake because the technical analysis of the precious metals market is clearly justified from the fundamental point of view. The conclusion-our outlook for Gold -1.31% 0.05% , Silver 0.28% -0.53% and mining stocks is very bearish for the medium and long-term, and it seems gold -1.31% 0.05% is likely to plunge more within next 2.5 weeks and it seems $1130 target is very much likely to reach but it may even drop to $1060.We may touch a local bottom later this month, though and we’ll keep you informed regarding the possibility of seeing a bigger turnaround. more likely scenario- we’ll see some kind of local bottom with gold -1.31% at $1,125 - $1,130 or so. we will keep you informed anyway many regards-Neeraj Pandey Our existing positions ASSET--XAGUSD Sell Limit Price: 15.500 Take Profit: 12.80 Stop Loss: 15.600 ASSET-GOLD Sell limit Price: 1231 Take Profit: 1080 Stop Loss: 1221 ( It doesn’t, however, mean that we won’t adjust (limit, close or even reverse) the position before this price level is reached. If we get enough confirmations other than gold’s price level itself (for instance, mining stocks show strength and silver 0.28% -0.53% 0.13% -0.13% -0.06% -0.26% -0.19% -0.06% reaches a very important support level , while the USD reaches a key resistance), then we might do it, just like we’ve done previously (which ultimately caused the short position to be more profitable).
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by NeerajPandey
9
possibility of seeing a bigger turnaround? Quick update-T.P Hit for Previous short-term trades for gold and silver At the moment of writing this update our full 250% net short positions in gold -1.65% , silver -0.53% and mining stocks are well justified from the risk and reward perspective. The USD Index broke above the medium-term reverse head and shoulder pattern and the rising wedge pattern while silver closed below its July 2017 lows.so now it's confirmed what we had written in our previous analysis. The same goes for Gold and Silver crystal clear breakdown which we witnessed in terms of weekly closing prices. The white metal declined with such a big volume which means that the breakdown is very likely to be confirmed, overall implication is very bearish for gold and silver.so nothing really changed but for the sake of the change, we decided to do something unique today. In today’s analysis, we will present you numbers of key factors that are likely to result in lower Gold, Silver and Mining stocks(precious metals)prices in the coming weeks and months. obviously, we will not discuss them in detail as that would imply writing a book but due to this platform text restriction if we won't be able to finish our post here, we will highly suggest you visit our page(mentioned at the end) for full analysis we’ll provide very brief summaries of each point that is likely to result in lower Gold, Silver, and Mining stocks(precious metals)prices in the coming weeks and months. Let’s start with the big picture. 1-Apex based reversal shows that the shape of gold decline, The way yellow metal is declining since 2011 is very similar to the way in which gold declined in the 1980s. This is a major issue for gold bulls because it suggests that gold is likely to form new lows. Long term situation is USD Index is yet another major factor which suggests that the precious metals are about to plunge in a drastic manner.we are not referring to the last couple years chart of USD Index,Instead we are talking about the 48 year chart where you would be able to see the extremely massive confirmed breakout in the case of the USD Index. Implications are profound as it suggests more rallies in the USD Index. 2-The next factor that remains in place is the link between 2012-13 decline to current plunging going on in the yellow metal. we wrote in our previous posts that gold was likely to move higher for about 2-3 weeks in July and then to decline with the strong and major decline will start in august.we have exactly seen that and our previous comments are still up-to-date. 3-On January 28,2018, we saw the major signs from the volume reading in terms of weeks. On Feb 2,2018 we wrote about the major record-breaking monthly volume levels. The implications are bearish anyway and they may contribute to lower gold prices in the future. 4-let's talk about key analogies, The first analogy in silver is between 2008 and last few years. This analogy is shockingly accurate in terms of prices. The WHITE metal rallied to the price levels and to which it declined in 2008 are extremely similar to where it rallied since early 2016. The implications are very bearish. 5-let's talk about the important ratio in the precious metals sector-gold to silver ratio. most analyst and traders have a misconception about it.you may have read some analysis about the ratio is moving or reaching to its long-term resistance at about 80. Instead, the real long long-term resistance in the gold to silver ratio is at about 100. This is the actual level at which the ration really reversed from the long-term perspective. 6-Another factor is the way gold reacted to the extremely positive fundamental news this year and in the previous years. due to some news and some short-term rallies, even some of our investors got excited, we tried to calm them down by posting another analysis.we saw a price barrier of $1350-$1451 in gold within previous years. We saw the news like Russia taking over Crimea, we had trade wars, nuclear threats regarding North Korea. Gold didn't really by this news which shows that P.Ms is not ready to rally yet-it really needs to find the real bottom first. 7-If you have been following our trades for some in trading view or if you are our premium subscriber.you made a lot of money in this year, you know technical analysis and daily written updates matters a lot but if you haven't you might be thinking why you should even care about these charts and daily updates instead of just watching and observing the real-Gold supply and demand, geopolitical conditions, interest rates and so on. you are making a very novice and dumb mistake because the technical analysis of the precious metals market is clearly justified from the fundamental point of view 8-Another major factor which we would address here is the currency sector. Interest rates drive the currency prices but in practice, the reaction can be delayed. The rally in USDX started in early 2018 and it seems that there is much more room for the higher prices in the USDX, This is a bearish implication for the PMs prices, we covered this full subject in our old analysis 9-The next and last factor is the correlation between the Nikkei 225 Index with gold. This correlation is negative.we still view Japanese stock market as an indication of what's likely to happen in the PMs.it seems that Nikkei value is about to soar in the medium and long-term which indicates lower Gold prices. The conclusion-our outlook for Gold 0.05% , Silver -0.53% and mining stocks is very bearish for the medium and long-term, and it seems gold 0.05% is likely to plunge more within next 2.5 weeks and it seems $1130 target is very much likely to reach but it may even drop to $1060.We may touch a local bottom later this month, though and we’ll keep you informed regarding the possibility of seeing a bigger turnaround. we will keep you informed anyway many regards-Neeraj Pandey Our existing positions ASSET--XAGUSD Sell Limit Price: 15.500 Take Profit: 12.80 Stop Loss: 16.46 ASSET-GOLD Sell limit Price: 1231 Take Profit: 1080 Stop Loss: 1275 ( It doesn’t, however, mean that we won’t adjust (limit, close or even reverse) the position before this price level is reached. If we get enough confirmations other than gold’s price level itself (for instance, mining stocks show strength and silver -0.53% 0.13% -0.13% -0.06% -0.26% -0.19% -0.06% reaches a very important support level , while the USD reaches a key resistance), then we might do it, just like we’ve done previously (which ultimately caused the short position to be more profitable).
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by NeerajPandey
Gold is on the Verge of the Next Major DeclineAt the moment of writing this alert our full 250% net short position in gold -0.34% 0.14% 0.79% , silver -0.13% -0.06% -0.26% and mining stocks are well justified from the risk and reward perspective.our positions are in good profit but it seems that our sizable profits on the short positions are going to become even bigger shortly. Summary-The next reversal date for gold is August 21st and the reversal date for gold stocks is August 23rd. With multiple factors pointing to a looming and significant decline and two important reversal dates in about 2.5 weeks, we can see a sharp slide very, very soon.we’re going to see a rally in the USD Index to the 98 level or so and this would correspond to a big slide in the metals and miners the outlook for the precious metals sector is extremely bearish and there are signs that we’re on the verge of seeing another big wave down and that the next local bottom is going to form in about 2.5 weeks. In other words, it seems that our sizable profits on the short positions are going to become even bigger shortly. The conclusion-our outlook for precious metals is very bearish for the medium and long-term, we will keep you informed anyway, many regards-Neeraj Pandey Our existing positions ASSET--XAGUSD Sell Limit Price: 15.500 Take Profit: 12.80 Stop Loss: 16.46 ASSET-GOLD Sell limit Price: 1231 Take Profit: 1080 Stop Loss: 1275 ( It doesn’t, however, mean that we won’t adjust (limit, close or even reverse) the position before this price level is reached. If we get enough confirmations other than gold’s price level itself (for instance, mining stocks show strength and silver -0.13% -0.06% -0.26% -0.19% -0.06% reaches a very important support level , while the USD reaches a key resistance), then we might do it, just like we’ve done previously (which ultimately caused the short position to be more profitable).
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by NeerajPandey
7
Some important changes in our long-term trading positionAt the moment of writing this alert our full 200% net short position in gold 0.79% , silver -0.26% and mining stocks are well justified from the risk and reward perspective. In other words, for the first time ever, we are increasing the position size to 250% of the regular position. Not much happened in the precious metals market at first sight, but this time the first look is misleading. Just because not much happened, it doesn’t mean that nothing changed. Conversely, we saw new signals that were important enough for us to change our current trading position. But it’s not something you’ll read about in the popular financial media. The thing is that the very subtle signs are visible only to those who know where to look. And financial journalists (who are not experienced analysts) generally don’t know where to look. If there is a major move in any direction, they try to find something that might have caused it and describe it in greater detail – but this is retrospective and doesn’t have significant (if any) predictive power. What does have this power are signs that have been proven to work over and over again that are confirmed by many other similarly effective signs. That’s what we saw yesterday. In the previous Alerts, we described the bearish implications coming from days when silver outperformed gold while miners underperformed it We saw it once again yesterday and the strength of this bearish signal is now very substantial. That was also the third consecutive close below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level in the HUI Index and this means that the breakdown is fully confirmed. This makes the outlook strongly bearish for the short- and medium term. The new and clear signal that we saw was gold’s very weak reaction to USD Index’s daily decline. The USD Index declined and it would be natural for gold to rally in this case. But it didn’t manage to form even a small rally. To be clear, there was an intraday move higher in gold, but nothing more. This move was quickly erased and ultimately – based on kitco.com’s prices – gold ended the day lower than on Friday. This is a very bearish confirmation that comes on top of multiple bearish signals and breakdowns. This means that yesterday’s session provided us with yet another very important indication of what’s to come. The clarity increased and the risk therefore declined, improving the risk to reward ratio. This is the cherry on the precious metals’ bearish analytical cake and – as crazy as this may sound – it seems to make an even greater short position justified than we had up to this point. Not much more happened and what happened was not particularly important, so we don’t have much more to add today except for the above. The conclusion-our outlook for precious metals is very bearish for the medium and long-term, we will keep you informed anyway, many regards-Neeraj Pandey Our existing positions ASSET--XAGUSD Sell Limit Price: 15.500 Take Profit: 12.80 Stop Loss: 15.700 ASSET-GOLD Sell limit Price: 1231 Take Profit: 1080 Stop Loss: 1275 ( It doesn’t, however, mean that we won’t adjust (limit, close or even reverse) the position before this price level is reached. If we get enough confirmations other than gold’s price level itself (for instance, mining stocks show strength and silver -0.26% -0.19% -0.06% reaches a very important support level , while the USD reaches a key resistance), then we might do it, just like we’ve done previously (which ultimately caused the short position to be more profitable).
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by NeerajPandey