Gold is on the Verge of the Next Major DeclineAt the moment of writing this alert our full 250% net short position in gold -0.34% 0.14% 0.79% , silver -0.13% -0.06% -0.26% and mining stocks are well justified from the risk and reward perspective.our positions are in good profit but it seems that our sizable profits on the short positions are going to become even bigger shortly.
Summary-The next reversal date for gold is August 21st and the reversal date for gold stocks is August 23rd. With multiple factors pointing to a looming and significant decline and two important reversal dates in about 2.5 weeks, we can see a sharp slide very, very soon.we’re going to see a rally in the USD Index to the 98 level or so and this would correspond to a big slide in the metals and miners
the outlook for the precious metals sector is extremely bearish and there are signs that we’re on the verge of seeing another big wave down and that the next local bottom is going to form in about 2.5 weeks. In other words, it seems that our sizable profits on the short positions are going to become even bigger shortly.
The conclusion-our outlook for precious metals is very bearish for the medium and long-term, we will keep you informed anyway,
many regards-Neeraj Pandey
Our existing positions
ASSET--XAGUSD
Sell Limit Price: 15.500
Take Profit: 12.80
Stop Loss: 16.46
ASSET-GOLD
Sell limit Price: 1231
Take Profit: 1080
Stop Loss: 1275
( It doesn’t, however, mean that we won’t adjust (limit, close or even reverse) the position before this price level is reached. If we get enough confirmations other than gold’s price level itself (for instance, mining stocks show strength and silver -0.13% -0.06% -0.26% -0.19% -0.06% reaches a very important support level , while the USD reaches a key resistance), then we might do it, just like we’ve done previously (which ultimately caused the short position to be more profitable).
Silversignal
Some important changes in our long-term trading positionAt the moment of writing this alert our full 200% net short position in gold 0.79% , silver -0.26% and mining stocks are well justified from the risk and reward perspective.
In other words, for the first time ever, we are increasing the position size to 250% of the regular position.
Not much happened in the precious metals market at first sight, but this time the first look is misleading. Just because not much happened, it doesn’t mean that nothing changed. Conversely, we saw new signals that were important enough for us to change our current trading position. But it’s not something you’ll read about in the popular financial media.
The thing is that the very subtle signs are visible only to those who know where to look. And financial journalists (who are not experienced analysts) generally don’t know where to look. If there is a major move in any direction, they try to find something that might have caused it and describe it in greater detail – but this is retrospective and doesn’t have significant (if any) predictive power.
What does have this power are signs that have been proven to work over and over again that are confirmed by many other similarly effective signs.
That’s what we saw yesterday. In the previous Alerts, we described the bearish implications coming from days when silver outperformed gold while miners underperformed it
We saw it once again yesterday and the strength of this bearish signal is now very substantial.
That was also the third consecutive close below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level in the HUI Index and this means that the breakdown is fully confirmed. This makes the outlook strongly bearish for the short- and medium term.
The new and clear signal that we saw was gold’s very weak reaction to USD Index’s daily decline.
The USD Index declined and it would be natural for gold to rally in this case. But it didn’t manage to form even a small rally. To be clear, there was an intraday move higher in gold, but nothing more. This move was quickly erased and ultimately – based on kitco.com’s prices – gold ended the day lower than on Friday. This is a very bearish confirmation that comes on top of multiple bearish signals and breakdowns.
This means that yesterday’s session provided us with yet another very important indication of what’s to come. The clarity increased and the risk therefore declined, improving the risk to reward ratio. This is the cherry on the precious metals’ bearish analytical cake and – as crazy as this may sound – it seems to make an even greater short position justified than we had up to this point.
Not much more happened and what happened was not particularly important, so we don’t have much more to add today except for the above.
The conclusion-our outlook for precious metals is very bearish for the medium and long-term, we will keep you informed anyway,
many regards-Neeraj Pandey
Our existing positions
ASSET--XAGUSD
Sell Limit Price: 15.500
Take Profit: 12.80
Stop Loss: 15.700
ASSET-GOLD
Sell limit Price: 1231
Take Profit: 1080
Stop Loss: 1275
( It doesn’t, however, mean that we won’t adjust (limit, close or even reverse) the position before this price level is reached. If we get enough confirmations other than gold’s price level itself (for instance, mining stocks show strength and silver -0.26% -0.19% -0.06% reaches a very important support level , while the USD reaches a key resistance), then we might do it, just like we’ve done previously (which ultimately caused the short position to be more profitable).
Silver short-term bear moveSilver should shortly break the sub-wave (iv) low to confinue the wave (v) move that will finish the larger degree down-move. Expecting a bounce after that.
Both the larger-degree wave extension and the smaller degree wave one extension put the 1.618 extension at 15.210 and thats good enough for me as a target.
Silver 1 Week ChartI love silver more than gold...WHY
Well looking at the chart and technology, gold is very manipulated and silver is almost 10x less than gold
Plus not to mention 1 oz of silver will get you 6 months of food in Venezuela, not that you are gonna go to Venezuela.
Right now it still needs to complete the weekly rising/ ascending triangle.
I would not be buying right now, although this is worth a long term investment.
Silver to break out?Silver looks to be breaking out from its short term downtrend. This will have long term ramifications on the gold and silver bull run. Expect much higher prices for both Gold and Silver by year end. Silver especially will be very volatile. Load up on silver miners as they will benefit the most from this.
Why Silver Will Outperform Gold 400%
The major monetary metal in history is silver, not gold
For most of mankind throughout most of history, silver has been the much more important monetary metal, familiar as the metal of daily commerce. Gold was used only for very, very large payments, which most people make only rarely, if ever.
Both silver and gold are monetary metals, i.e., they both benefit from monetary demand. (Monetary demand is also called “investment” demand. It is demand for silver as silver, and as an ingredient making something.) Most analysts miss silver’s monetary demand because they focus on silver’s use in industry. Certainly, since silver was politically demonetized beginning in the mid 1870s a vast amount of purely monetary demand disappeared. Today, most silver is used in fabrication, roughly split three ways among silverware and jewellery, photographic, and other industrial uses. But when confidence in central bank issued fiat money begins to fade, when fear strikes investors’ hearts, they run not only to gold, but also to silver. Especially in America.
SILVER BREAK OUT Silver is getting ready to break out of the pattern. I am bullish on COMMODITIES GOLD,SILVER etc. with all these QE and crazy money supply inflation would be inevitable to occur in next few years. Liquidity will be taken out from the market with int.rates and we are entering in the late phase of the economic cycle. Expecting to see huge rally in the price of Gold, Silver as safe heavens. USD weakening, JPY strengthens will see what will be the bride future. Good Luck.
Silver testing major support, potential for a bounce!XAGUSD is testing major support at 16.36 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) and a potential bounce could occur at this level to push price up to 16.71 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance, Fibonacci extension).
Stochastic (34,5,3) is also seeing major support above 4.3% where a corresponding bounce could occur to push price up.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Purchasing wave to be expectedResistance levels: 17,23 + 17,67 + 17,91
Support levels: : 16,96 + 16,60 + 16,26
Retrospective view :
Since the beginning of July, silver has been in a further upward trend, which started just below the USD 14.50 mark and initially pushed the value above the USD 17.91. Silver began a strong correction in September, which found support at 16.26 USD. Starting from this support area, silver moved up again in October and overcame the barrier at USD 17.23 for a short time. This increase is currently being corrected in the form of a bullish flag.
Technical outlook:
The bulls are still struggling for support at 16.96 USD. But even falling below the mark would only affect silver for a short time. Starting from USD 16.60, the flag formation could be resolved and thus pave the way for an outbrea over USD 17.23. If the barrier is overcome, the precious metal is likely to climb to USD 17.67 and above, rising to the resistance level at USD 17.97. Above this, gains of up to USD 18.50 can be expected.
Only a sustained break of the USD 16.60 level would have a negative impact and result in a correction to USD 16.26. However, the upward trend of recent weeks could continue there.
XAGUSD-Silver Medium TermMy previous recommendation on Silver to short at 17.30 for a target to 16.85 was successful, For now a top of the head & shoulder pattern is completed, expecting for the right shoulder to be formed to confirm the pattern. Intermediate trend looks to be bearish now as it broke the multi-days bull channel & all momentum indicators are turning bearish so a lower top is needed for confirmation of the bearish trend.
Strategy: Short on a bounce around 17.03-22 for a target to 15.87, tight stop above 17.41
Silver Ready For Bounce BackSilver on the daily time frame is now at the lower range and looks ready for a bounce back up.
As you can see the shape of the range is a bullish wedge. Meaning: a high chance to break to upper range and continue in an upwards trend.
How ever as you can see theres still a bit of space left. My prediction is that after going to the upper range, there will be 1 more wave down to the lower range before a bounce that will break the upper range and lead to a new trend up to 18.400.
Trading advice: Buy The Dips
SL: 15.200, take small buy positions and be ready/able to add more buys every 0.400 dip or 0.200 increase
TP: 17.800-18.400
Silver ShortArea of interest at 17.32 Short
- Respected weekly support channel Since February 29th
- Wedge pattern forming in weekly time frame
- Harmonic move A,B,C,D
- RSI Divergence down
- Most often When EMA is broken on 4 hour chart, the trend continues
- Target 1 15.33
- Target 2 14.25
Good luck in trading!
Silver Sentiment Back To Sub 17When look at silver on the daily time frame you can see that it has broken the lower range of a small channel and is now heading to the lower
range of the bigger channel.
Given by the looks of the Indicators it looks like theres enough selling pressure and strength for silver to break through this lower channel and 14 EMA level.
The previous up wave got rejected at the 72 EMA instead of breaking it. If you can see this also often means that price will retrace back.
Entry: 17.100-17.300 area.
Tp: 16.700 > 16.300 > 15.800
Sl: 17.700
Silver 4 hour at crucial levelSilver 4 hour is now at a crucial support level. If this level breaks we see 15.800 next. Indicators don't look great for silver bulls. Adx shows that theres still a strong bearish trend and Stoch RSI shows we still have strong selling pressure. A sell would be at its place, once 15.800 hits move your stop loss to the entry price.
Silver turning bullishSilver on the daily time frame is now at a resistance, with Stoch Rsi showing that the selling pressure is fading and Adx shows that the bearish trend is also fading (bearish line makes crossover downwards with the trend strength line).
This means that after selling Silver from 17.900 (which I published a week ago) it's now time to look for a buy entry.
How to trade:
Since there are multiple resistance levels and it's now approaching the 1st one I advice to start with a small buy position so that you have the space to add more if it might go 16.281. A break of 17.200 is also a nice entry for another buy positions. Take profit would be in the 18.000-18.500 region. A stop-loss at 15.400 is preferable.