SILVER (XAGUSD): Top-Down Analysis & Bearish Outlook 🪙
Silver tested a major falling trend line on a daily.
The price immediately reacted to that, forming a descending triangle formation
on an hourly time frame and breaking its neckline.
Bears will most likely push the prices even lower.
Goals will be 24.4 / 24.22
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Silversignals
DeGRAM | SILVER potential buySilver is in a bullish trend in the ascending channel.
The market reached the demand zone, where the price made a sharp bullish move.
Price action created a pinbar at the support level, an indication of potential upward momentum.
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SILVER / XAGUSD I am BEARISH! Sell
This week fundamentals are very bearish for Silver.
Analzing the indicators, I got a very strong bearish confirmation.
Also, the bearish engulfing candle on 12H time frame increases
the chances that sellers will push the prices low.
Target Level - 23.5
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XAGUSD Massive success on last trade now looking for the next!Silver (XAGUSD) gave us a very successful sell trade on our last analysis (see chart below) on April 12:
The price rebounded right before hitting the 21.715 Pivot because it touched the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Even though May's rejection was done at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down that started in August 2020, we may witness the break-out above this bearish structure finally as since the August 29 2022 bottom, a Bullish Megaphone and later a Channel Up are guiding the price action.
On top of that, Silver is completing the first 1W Golden Cross since May 2020. In any case we will not jump on this impulsively but rather wait for a clear bullish break-out signal, which will be if a 1W candle closes above the Lower Highs trend-line. In this case we will target Resistance 1 (26.230) and Resistance 2 (26.935) respectively. If the price gets rejected on the Lower Highs instead, we will wait for a buy on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
Notice also the 1W MACD Bullish Cross that is about to be formed, indicating that a continuation of the current uptrend might be more probable than a rejection.
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BluetonaFX - SILVER CHART UPDATEHey Traders,
This chart ideas was shared last week. We shared targets and highlighted that if we saw support break below 23.854 pivot point, we will see the level below open to 22.904. This was hit perfectly once the level was broken.
We are now seeing the SILVER PIVOT CHANNEL (OUR UNIQUE WAY TO DRAW CHANNELS) bottom being respected.
UPDATED LONG RANGE TARGETS
TARGET 1 - 23.854
TARGET 2 - 24.681
TARGET 3 - 25.097
TARGET 4 - 25.518
As long as price maintains above this level we should see a test to our targets above.
We will trade this movement in stages from support to resistance and maintain a Bullish stance overall.
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BluetonaFX
Is Silver ready to rise again?Since the false break under 18, back in September 2022, Silver has entered a nice up trend and has risen around 40%.
After the recent high of around 26, the price corrected, and after the confirmation of new support in old resistance bulls look ready to take control again.
The next target could be the 27 zone.
Buyers should keep in mind that before both strong reversals, the price has had a false break
Silver/USD AB=CD Bullish Reversal Pattern - 1hr time frameAB = CD Harmonic Pattern formation has been observed which indicates an increase in the Silver Price (USD).
You can buy at 25.150 price point. Place a Stop Loss at 24.760.
Take Profit 1 @ 1:1 risk/reward will be 25.509 and Take Profit 2 @ 1:2 risk/reward, will be 25.890.
XAGUSD First major sell signal in 3 months!We had a blast with our buy signal on Silver (XAGUSD) in late February as we caught the exact bottom on the oversold 1D RSI:
Now the tide is turning as the STOCH RSI on the 1W time-frame is vastly overbought and is waving the first sell signal after more than 3 months. This doesn't mean that the price can't extend slightly its rise, but this is an optimal level to start adding sells based on our long-term strategy.
Right now the price is just above the 0.618 Fibonacci level, having broken above the dashed Lower Highs but is near the dotted Lower Highs. A max extension near the March 07 2022 High and the 0.786 Fib isn't likely but isn't unrealistic at the same time. As mentioned though, that is good enough for us to sell and as of today we switch back to being bearish on Silver, targeting initially the 2 year Pivot at 21.750.
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XAGUSD Our great masterplan continues to work to perfection.Since early last year, we have been following a certain buy low/ sell high approach on Silver (XAGUSD) after we identified that it has been trading inside a 2-year Channel Down:
We most recently turned bearish again on precisely the right time on our previous January 31 sell call:
Right now however, with the price having broken on Friday below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since November 30, it hit the 20.625 Support formed by the November 21 Low. This is potentially the formation of the Right Shoulder of a giant Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern. With the 1D RSI deep below the oversold barrier, this is were we will attempt our first medium term buy targeting the (green) Symmetrical Resistance Zone and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), any of the two gets hit first.
We will attempt an additional buy entry near the Higher Lows trend-line (holding since the September 01 Low), as this would complete a -19.50% decline, similar to the June 06 - July 14 pattern. Its target was a +15.10% rise to the 0.618 Fibonacci, but again we will settle for just the (green) Symmetrical Resistance Zone and the 1D MA50 as targets.
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XAGUSD Hanging on a tight thread about to turn bearish.Silver (XAGUSD) couldn't have gone better since our September 12 buy signal as following the Lower Lows Double Bottom, it not only broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 ( orange trend-line), but also made a new Extreme High on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension .
As you see, we've charted Silver's pattern since February 01 2021, which is a Channel Down, most effectively viewed using the Fibonacci channel levels. This is basically the pattern we used to analyze the metal 3 months ago, and it helped us call accurately that bullish break-out.
At the moment, with a slight modification to better adapt to the new Highs and Lows, we see that Silver is has been pushing downwards on the 1.382 Fib treating it as strong of a Resistance so far as the March 08 High during the Ukraine - Russia war. Now of course the fundamentals are not the same but technically since the price broke below the 1D MA50, the confirmation of the downtrend will come if it breaks inside the Ichimoku Cloud, which is exactly where today's low hit. That was the Bearish Signal on the April 19 2022 Ichimoku breach.
If that happens, we can see a nose-dive even as low as the 0.382 Channel Fib. Notice also how the RSI on the 1W time-frame is being rejected on the Resistance Zone which since February 2021 was rejected and formed all major Lower Highs of this Channel Down.
In order for us to call for a bullish extension and invalidation of this long-term bearish trend, we ideally want to see XAGUSD closing above the 0.786 horizontal Fib, which failed to get tested during the March was High. In that case we will target initially the 26.900 March High on the short-term.
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Silver could drop 2k pipsSince the low back in June 2022, Silver has traded in a range and although there were 4 attempts for a break under 18usd figure and even a false break at the beginning of September, bulls held strong and finally won the battle.
XagUsd started to rise in October and broke above the resistance of the 6 months range in November. A nice rise followed and the precious metal has gained more than 6k pips in 3 months if we count from the bottom to the top.
However, at this point, Silver looks like it wants to correct and the first and the second trading days of the year are Pin Bars.
The ascending trendline is also broken to the downside and these could be signs of an imminent drop.
My strategy is to sell rallies against 22.80 with a target at the 22 zone. Also, a deeper correction could drive the price even at 21 important support.
XAGUSD Hit the extreme top of the 2 year Channel Down.Silver (XAGUSD) couldn't have gone better since our September 12 buy signal as following the Lower Lows Double Bottom, it not only broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), but also made a new Extreme High on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension.
As you see, we've charted Silver's pattern since February 01 2021, which is a Channel Down, most effectively viewed using the Fibonacci channel levels. This is basically the pattern we used to analyze the metal 3 months ago, and it helped us call accurately that bullish break-out.
So what now? With a slight modification to better adapt to the new Highs and Lows, we see that the rejection 3 days ago is so far as strong as the March 08 High during the Ukraine - Russia war. Now of course the fundamentals are not the same but technically as long as the price is below the 1.382 Channel Fib, we should see a 1D MA50/ MA200 test, at least on the short-term. If after that the price fails to regain the 1D MA50, we can even see a nose-dive back to the 0.382 Channel Fib.
Notice also how the RSI on the 1W time-frame just entered the Resistance Zone which since February 2021 was rejected and formed all major Lower Highs of this Channel Down.
In order for us to call for a bullish extension and invalidation of this long-term bearish trend, we ideally want to see XAGUSD not just closing above the 1.382 Channel Fib but above the 0.786 horizontal Fib, which failed to get tested during the March was High. In that case we will target initially the 26.900 March High on the short-term.
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XAGUSD Huge sell opportunitySilver (XAGUSD) has been trading since September exactly like we wanted it to, as we have been tracking its long-term Channel Down pattern correctly:
Our 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) target has been hit, with the price also marginally breaking above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down (Fibonacci level 1.0). That doesn't call for a bullish extension towards the 1.382 Fib like the Ukraine - Russia was extreme did, as the price quickly retraced back below the 1D MA200.
This continues to replicate the rebound after the Internal Lower Lows, which is the fractal that helped us take that buy trade on September. That sequence, following the 1D MA200 rejection, pulled-back to the 0.236 Fibonacci level. Since the current top on the September - November bullish leg was made a Fib level higher, we are setting the targeted low higher as well, on the 0.382 Fib instead of the 0.236.
The next buy opportunity would be when the 1D RSI hits the 30.000 oversold barrier again.
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Silver could rise from supportAfter the break above descending trend line's resistance followed by a break also above horizontal resistance, Silver made a high at 21.20 and started to drop.
As I said in my previous analysis, prices under 20 should provide strong support and a new leg up could follow.
At the time of writing Silver is trading exactly in this support and bulls can regain control from this point.
22 zone can be buyers' target and negation comes with a drop under 19
SILVER Can't rise more unless this level breaksSilver (XAGUSD) has been pulling back in the last 3 days following an impressive +18% rise since the September 28 Low. As you see, we've charted Silver's pattern since February 01 2021, which is a Channel Down, most effectively viewed using the Fibonacci channel levels. This is basically the pattern we used to analyze the metal almost a month ago, and it helped us call accurately that bullish break-out:
After breaking above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), the price didn't reach as high as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but it did hit the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which is the level that the October 2021 rise topped (on November 12 2021) and got rejected back to the 0.236 Fibonacci a month later. The similarities between the two fractals are obvious even between their 1D RSI sequences where are you see, based on the symmetry, Silver might have made a peak similar to that of November 12 2021.
If the price continues to replicate the 2021 pattern, then we can target the 0.236 Fib again. The ideal confirmation will be given once the 1D MA50 breaks again. So trade this in accordance to your tolerance levels. The lowest risk buy would be exactly on the 0.236 Fib.
On the bull side, the above strategy is invalidated if the price breaks and closes above the 1D MA200 first. In that case, we can start buying again and target the 1.382 Fibonacci extension which was reached in March 2022 at the height of the Ukraine - Russia war.
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Silver breaks both the 50-day MA and the bearish trend lineWhat a day for silver !
Spot silver went up more than 5% to $19.7 per troy ounce in one of the best sessions this year, hitting the highest levels since August 18.
Silver's daily price action broke through both the 50-day moving average and the 2022 bearish trend line connecting the lower highs of April and August.
Momentum indicators show the daily RSI spiking above 50 and the MACD providing a bullish crossover last Friday. The latter has been a reliable bullish technical signal. The May 19 MACD bullish crossover led to a 5.7% rally until June. The July 21 MACD bullish crossover sparked a 12.1% rally to mid-August.
The following key resistance levels to keep an eye on are: 20.00 (psychological), 20.8 (August highs), and 21.15 (38.2% Fibonacci of 2022 low to high). The 50-dma at 19.23 now represents the immediate support level on the downside.
Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
XAGUSD Hit the 1D MA50. Major break-out possible!Silver (XAGUSD) hit today its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 4 weeks (since Aug 17). It did so after rebounding on an Internal Lower Lows trend-line similar to that of August 09 - September 29 2021. This is basically the formation that emerged within the 1.5 year long-term Channel Down pattern that has been dominating the bearish trend since the February 01 2021 market high.
The Aug-Sep 2021 fractal rebounded after hitting the Internal Lower Lows and following the 1D MA50 break-out, it hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on the 0.786 Channel Fib retracement. Notice that both fractals made the 1D MA50 test on the 0.382 Fib. The 1D RSI patterns among the two are also similar. As a result, if the price closes above the 1D MA50, we will target the 1D MA200 or the 0.786 Fib (whichever comes first, most likely th 0.786 Fib will).
We are only willing to short if the price closes below the Channel Down and target the Bearish Extreme of -0.382, just like the Bullish Extreme of the March 2022 Russia - Ukraine war, targeted the 1.382 Fibonacci extension.
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XAGUSD At the bottom of the 2 year Channel DownSilver (XAGUSD) has been approaching the bottom of the long-term Channel Down that has been trading in since the February 01 2021 High. This makes it an automatic technical buy targeting first the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) in extension. This is depicted on the 1D RSI as well which is rising after breaking below the 30.00 oversold level.
As long as the bottom (Lower Lows) trend-line holds, the price action is a buy. If it breaks, we may see the price drop as low as the -0.382 Fibonacci extension, which is the symmetrical move that happened during the March 2022 war extreme.
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XAGUSD Maybe temporary bounce unless the 1D MA50 breaks.Silver (XAGUSD) has been on a short-term rise since the May 13 Low. The long-term pattern is a Channel Down since May 18 2021, so practically a whole year of Lower Highs and Lower Lows. The recent one, isn't a solid Lower Low however, in fact it resembles the August 09 2021 Low, which despite a short-term rise, it failed exactly on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and got rejected to a Lower Low.
It was only when the price later broke above the 1D MA50 that the uptrend was sustained and eventually made a new Lower High. As a result, with the 1D Death Cross imminent (when the 1D MA50 crosses below the 1D MA200), it is best to buy either on the exact bottom (Lower Lows) trend-line of the Channel Down or if the 1D MA50 breaks first. Notice how in the rise to the Lower High, the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) also rejected the uptrend twice. Keep those in mind if you engage into long-term trading within this pattern. It is also important to have the 1W RSI Resistance and Support Zones in the equation.
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XAGUSD Pull-back are a buy to $29.00 - 30.00What was set in motion last October when the price rebounded on the 1W MA100, is taking place now, as Silver (XAGUSD) broke above its 1W MA50.
On the shorter time-frame of 1D (current chart), the price appears to be replicating the December 2020 aggressive rise, which initially reached almost the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (28.000) and after a 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) pull-back, tested the 30.000 Resistance.
This time, the rally broke above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since July 16 2021. Our long-term strategy is to buy every pull-back up to the 1D MA50 and look to book profits within the 29.000 - 30.000 Zone.
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XAGUSD Strong rally towards the end of the yearAs the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting Silver since late October, it is a good time for me to update my outlook on the metal. So far my September 30 trading plan remains valid:
As you see we caught the market bottom on that exact date and the price has been rising ever since, creating an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern in the process, which is a technical bullish formation.
Last time we saw the 1D MA50 turning into a Support after a break-out following a rebound on the 21.650 Support, was in January 2021. As you see that was also after a new High and what followed was a rally that gave a new Higher High. With the 1D CCI being also on a symmetrical Support level (-100.00), I am expecting a similar rally this time also, which can last as long as until the end of the year. The 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level has always served as a strong Resistance and that is an ideal target for swing buyers.
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#XAGUSD SILVER LONGTERM BUYING OPPORTUNITYIn Weekly time frame price has formed a line formation, and currently siting on a support area. As a result of this important support area price structure in 4H time frame has shifted to bullish as you can see and price is creating a HH and HL.
Now price is above 4H timeframe 144 EMA and also price is in bearish corrective move for retesting a previous resistance area which because of price bullish move has turned to support.
in lower time frames we have bullish divergence which is another confluence for our trading idea.
Now if price fail to come below the 23.045$ which is our previous low and manage to create a HL comparing to that low in 1H time frame we can technically say this lower time bearish corrective move has ended and we can look for buying opportunity today.
We should remember this is a long term buying opportunity and our target could be around the high of this weekly time frame line formation which is around 29$, so use a wide and good stop loss in order not to get stopped out of this big bullish move in line with your trading strategy.
XAGUSD hit the 1W MA100. Best long-term buy for $40.Silver (XAGUSD) is posting a bullish reaction (rebound) after marginally breaking below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) last week. During the metal's previous multi-year Bull Cycle and more specifically its parabolic rise (2003 - 2011), all three times that the price hit the 1W MA100 (excluding of course the outside catalys of the 2008 subrime mortgage crisis that caused a sharp market crash), it rebounded and rose to at least the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. The LMACD sequences of today and those preceeding the 1W MA100 hits of the past, are also fairly similar.
If last week was the bottom then, the 2.0 Fibonacci extension is currently a little over $40. We consider this the most optimal long-term buy opportunity.
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