BITCOIN and Silver: Striking similarities of a Bull Cycle.After analyzing the price action on the short term , I want to bring to your attention an interesting analogy: Bitcoin's Cycle on the 1W chart since the December 2017 top versus Silver's Cycle on the 1D chart since the September 2019 top.
As you see the similarities between the two fractals are striking. I know the time frames are different but serve well enough the purpose of comparing market Cycle. More precisely the abrupt end to a Bull Cycle (ending the parabola) then the whole Bear Cycle and lastly the start of the new Bull Cycle.
** Similarities **
First of all both appear to have put their respective Bear Phases behind as they've made Higher Highs.
- The end of the previous Bull Cycle came when the MA50 was crossed from the upside.
- The MA200 was never crossed and acts as a Support for the new Bull Cycle (in fact for Bitcoin it made a perfect bounce on it).
- The Bear Cycle ended after a new Higher High was made which on both assets was on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement.
- The start of the new Bull Cycle is validated by the test of the MA50 which is acting as a Support.
** Differences **
- The only notable difference is seen on the MACD. For Bitcoin it has already turned bullish while on Silver it is close to. This is because the correction of the start of the new Bull Cycle has already finished on Bitcoin and since January 2020 we see the new bullish leg (oval shape). Silver hasn't posted that leg yet but as long as the MA50 is in support, the MACD will make that bullish cross. Interesting to point out that Bitcoin's current bullish leg has marginally crossed again the 0.618 Fibonacci.
Well that wraps it up. The point of this study was to see how similar Market Cycle's are, irrespective of the time-frame. It is the human psychology factor that is the one constant in all trading investing/ activities and as you see the pattern we human's print under certain conditions (denial when the Bull Cycle ends, panic sell after, disbelief at the bottom, euphoria near the top etc etc) is the same.
I hope you enjoyed this analysis. Do you agree with the above? Let me know in the comments section!
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