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41k or 30k first? Here's what I see.We've had a bit of bull-spring / short-squeeze at 34k, and now have some small potential to reverse the daily bear trend by breaking above 41k. This will however require a ton of bullish pressure for an extended period of time for that to happen. As long as we remain in the yellow zone, having higher low but staying below 41k / the blue downtrend resistance trendline you see here, then we are simply in a relief rally. If we stay under 41k and the resistance trendline, but we start moving more sideways into the orange zone and making lower highs as implied by the descending resistance, then we will be slowing be eating up all the demand at ~34.5k until the bears come in to drop us into another bearish impulse. But if we go into the orange area and eventually fail to break the 34.5k area (failing to make it a new resistance), then we break above the trendline resistance and do one of two things most likely. We may either accumulate or distribute in the blue zone, depending on how sentiment develops in that 34 to 41k range. Finally, naturally, if we break above 41k and the trendline, we will have bulls back in control again and we could begin expecting each higher high to be a followed by a higher low; a bull-trend on this scale.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by lysergik
ICT OTE example breakdown, Looking at the chart as evidence. here we go again another ICT OTE in the NY session. I know the charts a bit messy so lets simplify. 1. Order block is in higher TF structure GREEN BOX 2. we are working against a HTF trend (pushing up when the Daily and 4 hour bias is down) 3. We are at extensions of the Sunday range, (price is looking for that sell high discount) 4. price shows us it has the backing to extend back to mitigate the order 5. price hits the order, DISCOUNT, HTF BIAS IN FAVOUR 79 percent entry (some people use this as a more reserved entry, Even the 62 is still not stopped out, could have entered again at 79 better price depending on Risk management and your flavour. 6. short break of structure to upside again, Trend line broken and stops hunted. 7. 3-1 easy.....5-1 if you held it. Simplify, Things are easier to see when you simplify.... money doesn't care about your fancy indicators or rituals or mathematical calculations, The trade is an investigation, The chart IS THE EVIDENCE LEFT IN THE CRIME SCENE.. ill keep dropping them in, so that people can see examples, Drop a like and let me know they are helping. designate target, Aim ... fire.
by hunterprotocolFX
2
Education Excerpt: Simple Moving AverageSimple Moving Average The origin of inventing the Simple Moving Average (MA) is not clear. Although, some of the first documented cases of its use date as far back as the early 20th century. Implementation of moving averages in technical analysis is one of the most successful methods of identifying trends. Moving averages are simply constant period averages - usually of prices, that are calculated for each successive period interval. The result of calculation is then plotted on the chart as a smooth line that represents successive average prices. Thus, the calculation of the moving average dampens fluctuations of price of an asset, making it easier to spot an underlying trend. Though use of the moving average goes beyond identifying trends. Support, resistance and price extremes can be anticipated by correct interpretation of the moving average. Crossover Generally, when the moving average with a lower period interval crosses above the moving average with a higher period interval it is considered a bullish signal. On the other hand, when the moving average with a longer period interval crosses above the moving average with a lower period interval it is considered a bearish signal. These crossovers can serve as specific buy and sell signals in markets that are trending. However, moving average crossovers tend to produce many false signals in non-trending markets. Furthermore, these same crossovers can act as support or resistance levels. Illustration 1.01 Picture above depicts daily graph of PepsiCo (Ticker:PEP) with 20-day SMA (blue) and 35-day SMA (red). With implementation of these two moving averages it is easily observable that prevailing trend is bullish. Crossovers between these two simple moving averages reveal where trend began (10th February 2017) and where it ended (7th July 2017). In addition to that analyst can identify price extremes when price deviates too far from its 20-day SMA. Length of the period Different lengths of moving average directly translate to the amount of data used in the calculation. Including more data in the calculation of the moving average makes each data per time interval relatively less important. Therefore, a large change in one particular data would not have as large an impact on the overall result of the calculation in comparison to if the moving average with a shorter period was employed. Hence, the longer moving average produces less false signals at the cost of revealing underlying trend sooner rather than later. Usually, the use of two moving averages with different period intervals is encouraged as opposed to use of a single moving average. This comes from the premise that when two moving averages with different period intervals are plotted on a chart, they tend to show two separate lines converging and diverging. Illustration 1.02 Picture above depicts daily graph of XAUUSD with 3-day SMA (blue) and 6-day SMA (red). Viewer can see that 3-day SMA copies price move more agressively than 6-day SMA. Illustration 1.03 Picture above depicts exactly same graph as is showed in Illustration 1.02. However, length of SMAs differs. Blue line represents 10-day SMA while red line represents 20-day SMA. It is clear that when length of SMAs was extended then SMAs produced less mechanical signals (crossovers) as opposed to SMAs used in Illustration 1.02. Calculation The calculation of the moving average usually involves use of the close price. Normally, 10, 20, 50, 100 or 200 periods are used and the calculation is conducted by creating the arithmetic mean of a dataset. SMA = (A1 + A2 + An) : n A = average in period n n = number of time periods Illustration 1.04 Picture above shows daily graph of Coca Cola (Ticker:KO). In this particular example trend was neutral and it is visible that crossovers between two simple averages produced many false signals. Disclaimer: This content is just excerpt from full paper that will be published later. It serves educational purpose only.
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OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Tradersweekly
60