$BTC1! Fib Simulation of Fractal (UPD)Perceiving the price action as a function of trading time justifies the quantitative approach in drawing geometric relationship between phases of cycles. Hence, it's safe for me to assume that market is a time fractal which has its own path regardless the collective opinions of the market participants. Logistic curve that reflects well the speed of information spreading made me ignore the voices of masses. The principle aligns with EMH - that the condition of the market is already reflected in the current price.
Impulsive and corrective waves are governed by golden rule in one way or the other. That's why I used fibonacci channels to build predictive models which reflect the interconnectedness of composite fractals to the whole cycle. By measuring the extreme levels of historic wave, the derived fibonacci channels exposed the timing, size and probability levels of the next ones.
In regular TA, people are wrongfully focused on covering their immediate expectations from the market, analyzing a narrow data range of the chart. Whereas, Fractal Analysis graphically shows how current price is interconnected with the entire history of fluctuations in a single probabilistic map.
In this update I fused earlier discovered structures and boundaries to the chart
Added more series of fib ratios derived from white triangle (src 0;1)
Linear boundaries of macro-fractal:
Implementation of fibs with big time Intervals:
As violet Fibs:
Other observations:
We're in a big triangle derived by linear extension 2021 tops and Full cycle (COVID - 2022 LOWS)
Source:
Implementation:
(On interactive chart it darkens till intersection)
Simulation
$BTC: Fib Interference PatternAdded 2 other fib ratios for extending awareness about the presence of extra golden proportions.
Those are 0.146 and 0.887
2021 double tops define an important angle which is relevant to the chart in terms of its distinctive angle of the shift towards the side.
Given angle we could define the width of fibonacci channel by applying the Nov 2022 bottom:
Tops 2017 & 2021 applied to Coving bottom:
Establishing fabric of PriceTime based on its historic incline.
To increase further the awareness on waves of probability limits, the process can be repeated.
Tops 2013 & 2017 applied to 2011 Low
High angle fib channel related to timing:
2011 & 2013 Tops applied to August 2015 Low
TradingView Masterclass: Paper TradingIn this Masterclass, you’ll learn how to use our official paper trading tool. Paper trading gives trades the capability to test their trading skills in a simulated environment without risking real money. For all the new traders out there, you’ll want to make paper trading your best friend. Why? Have all the fun you want, practice endlessly, and never lose a dime.
Reminder: With Black Friday nearing (seriously… it’s coming soon), now is the time to master one of our most important tools. You’ll be ready to go the second you activate your upgraded account.
To get started, follow the steps below:
Step 1 - Click the ‘Trading Panel’ button located at the bottom of the chart.
Step 2 - Once you click the ‘Trading Panel’ button, a list of brokers in your region will appear, but also, at the very top, a Paper Trading account powered by yours truly, TradingView.
Step 3 - Click Paper Trading and you’ll now start the process of opening your free, simulated trading environment, entirely powered by us.
You made it! Time to celebrate! 🕺💃
Alright, let’s go a little deeper and talk about the buttons you’ll want to understand now that you’ve got your Paper Trading account opened.
While still having the Trading Panel open, click the button that says “Trade” and an order slip will appear. It’ll look like this:
As you get started, here are some tips to keep in mind:
Take Paper Trading seriously. Work Paper Trading as if it were a real account:
Record your trades, the reasons, the results obtained and the lessons learned.
Explore different approaches like intraday trading or swing trading.
Maintain emotional discipline, your trading strategy and risk management.
Practice, practice, practice - that’s what this is all about, getting better at trading through practice.
It gets better, because there are multiple ways to trade and customize your paper trading experience. Open the chart settings menu or right click on the chart, and you can add specific trading features to the chart as needed.
In-fact, we’ll explain all of the features available to you in the chart settings.
🟥🟦 Buy/Sell buttons :
When these are turned on, you’ll see a Buy and Sell button at the top right of the chart. When it comes to buying and selling, there are three primary order types:
Market (executed at the current market price),
Limit (executed at a defined specific value), and
Stop (executed when the price falls below a certain level).
👆 Instant Orders placement :
This option allows you to open positions at the market price by simply clicking the buy and sell buttons. You can choose the quantity by clicking on the number below the spread.
⏰ Play Sound for executions :
You can enable this option to receive an audible notification when a trade is executed, with eight different tones to choose from.
📲 Notifications :
Receive notifications for All events or Rejection orders only.
Tip : You can open the order panel by using the Shift + T shortcut or by right-clicking on a chart, then selectings Trade > Create a new order.
👁🗨 Positions :
Uncheck this box if you don’t want to see your active trading positions.
🔺🔻 Profit & loss :
This option allows you to view the profit and loss changes in your trades, which can displayed in both ticks and percentages.
🔃 Reverse button :
When enabled, a button is added to your active trading positions that allows you to reverse your trade.
👁 Orders :
See your current open unexecuted orders by checking this box.
🔺🔻👁 Brackets profit & loss :
It functions similarly to the Profit & Loss option, but for pending orders.
⏪ Executions :
It displays the past executed orders on the chart.
Execution labels :
Enable this option to view specific information about past execution orders, including trade direction, quantity, and executed price.
Extended price line for positions & orders :
It creates an extended horizontal line for your active trades.
⬅⬆➡ Orders & positions alignment :
You can move the alignment of your orders to Left, Center and Right in your charts.
🖥 Orders, Executions and Positions on screenshots :
Check this box if you want to download screenshots (shortcut: Ctrl + Alt + S) with active and pending orders.
Thanks for reading and we hope this tutorial helps you get started! We look forward to reading your feedback.
- TradingView Team
ANSS AnSys The Software Simulation Engine For Everything AI Ansys, Inc. is an American company based in Canonsburg, Pennsylvania. It develops and markets CAE/multiphysics engineering simulation software for product design, testing and operation and offers its products and services to customers worldwide.
Opening positions under $220 and attempting to hold for $300
S&P 500 ETF MicroFractal I 15mSource of General Fractal of current decline rhymed to historic pattern:
Breaking below shallow upward angle switch to:
Doesn't hold 394.83? Switch to chart below if you believe that market should make a recession type of decline:
If you still feel optimistic about the economy and your analysis doesn't reflect apocalyptic drops:
What if this time isn't different? A 2 year scenario projecting the financial crisis of 2008-2009 into the future
Chart (W, LOG):
Stocks: The averaged futures for SPX, NAS and DJ were weighted so that a 1 point change will imply the same change in $ terms. (For weights see www.barchart.com
200MA, 50MA, and 21MA
Today's price and date: at the intersection of the cross.
Financial crisis: Purple box on the left
Implied scenario: Purple box on the right. Left edge starts 10/5/2022 ("Today" .. for the next 10 min)
Methodology:
The scenario is a scaled up copy of the box at 2008-2009. It is stretched to fit the current price, and it's 3 MA's.
For simplicity the price / time aspect ratio was preserved.
Criteria for 'best fit' (using IEI ) were the absolute level and curvature of the 3 MA's. In other words, the distance between the MA's, their slopes, and the speed each slope was changing.
Main Implications:
The scenario implies a crash (ripped from Feb 2009) beyond the March, 2020 COVID low, as far as the highs of 2015. This is after the end of QE, when Greece went into default and the Yen was devalued overnight .
"Bottom" of the implied crash is one year from today (10/5/2022).
Notes:
1. IEI : I eyeballed it
2. Gann would not be happy and the result could be different on a RENKO or equivalent treatment of time (a great follow up idea)
3. The night the Yen was devalued I held positions in gold in bond futures (GC and ZB). I have used stops without exceptions from that day on.
best graphics:
Ethereum Simulation - NeutralHope the momentum does not break and keeps heading higher and higher.
Please share your thoughts, ideas, and evaluation. If you liked this analysis, smash the like button which will motivate me to publish more of my analysis often. Thanks for viewing!
Disclaimer: There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. This is my very personal analysis and it does not intend to be a bit of advice in anyways.