EURUSD Ambitious trend analysis ideaHello future me, this is an ambitious idea to find out general areas of tops and bottoms for the EURUSD based on the past three decades. We draw up some basic greater support and resistance on Monthly EURUSD. The pair looks like most of the price action has taken place topside.
When learning about markets and trading we keep hearing that markets move in cycles. Pay no attention to the placement of Sine Waves in the chart, instead pay attention to the highs and lows. Highlighted areas are of interest where tops or bottoms occur. Blue zones are drawn equally to determine if there’s a general area where these extremes could be found. The waves don’t say anything other than “here there possibly be an extreme”. We have two instances of Sine Wave tops and two instances of bottoms in our theory, meaning no confirmation as per the three-touch rule. The top would be after the trend convergence, which price would break to the upside.
Overlaid with Fibonacci Time Zones (black verticals), they align near the centre and extreme point. From these two tools it looks like we could hypothesise that the EURUSD is indeed cyclical and can use this as a basis for a working theory on which general time area the market may top.
Applying Fibonacci Extensions (right side) to estimate possible important price levels we can see that historically price has reacted to these levels. Right now we’re being squeezed between the upper resistance and the 23.6 extension.
Fibonacci Retracements (left side) from the last great bull trend confluence at certain levels. Namely the 50.0 retracement and the 23.6 extension, the 23.6 retracement and the 50.0 extension, with some deviations among the others. The confluence of retracement, extension, the possible end of the bottom, and nearing the greater resistance, we may be looking at the turning point where we find ourselves in a new bull trend. If the patterns hold true, we could be in the confirmation stage of a new bull trend.
The market looks to be favouring the long side, with risk to the short side. Anyone attempting to trade the overall trend idea should only do so with small lots due to possibly wide swings. If applying this idea as a basis for near terms trades in the shorter time frames, this idea could offer a guide for possible overall market trend. Look for entries either at the 23.6 extension or if bulls break resistance. Make sure to look at near-term price action to confirm breaks as we want to see conviction in whatever move the market makes, meaning price should accelerate. Highlighted are two possible candidates for tops. The first being around the 50.0 extension and 23.6 retracement confluence, and the second possible top could be a full retracement back to the 2008 high and the 78.6 extension.
If we zoom in a bit (still monthly time frame), the EURUSD is trading constructively in a Pitchfork. We’re seeing conviction in the market breaking the median (red solid) and 0.5 medians (green solid), and consolidation/exhaustion if the price can’t push through. This could be an opportunity for when to enter the market. There appears to be three possible areas where price action could hit resistance, if it doesn’t break down from exhaustion (median). If the market breaks resistance that marks the end of the great resistance starting 2008 and the beginning of a major breakout. Usually at such times the market is very volatile and even chaotic, with fake-outs and irregular price movements.
Or the market could just either break support or trade in a range for years to come. As traders we trade probabilities and never certainties, because there are none.
Whatever the case may turn out to be, good luck out there and have fun.
