Top of the WaveWell it is finally here.. We have reached the date of the above green time cycle. This cycle marks the date of significant highs, normanly followed by a sharp break down. This cycle has remained acurate for last 3 years (we are entering 4 year) and it remain spot on.
The Green time cycle shows the dates when oil stops a bull run. Even in a bear market, there will be bull run leading into this date... On this date we see the high. Even thought I only use this to predict the Week of the event (break to bearish).. It has been acurate to the DAY the last three years. As it predicted the break happened on Friday. October 7th. That is six complete cycles going back over three years. Simply put, we have reached the top of the wave until Apex of Red cycle, Jan 20, 2017. Oil is going down.
The Red sine wave shows at what point in the cycle oil will be at its low. Think of it as the inverse of the Green time cycle with a different wave timing. The low for oil will be on the Apex date of the Red sine wave. The last apex occurred (and was predicted) on Aug 4. This wave timing longer than the Green time cycle, so you can see it's apex can occur from days to months after the High of the Green time cycle. The difference in time between the two dictates the speed of the fall. This pattern is consistent.
Sure... I only make a handful of trades a year, and i normally swing them for about 3months, so why is this important to short term traders.. Because if you know the direction for the next few weeks or months, and you know any spike up before the Red sine wave date will be reversed to at least the prior low since the Green time cycle date.
All of last years gains where based on these trades.. I will be updating our other published ideas to consolidate them here. All are subsets of this cycle chart. If you have been following you know we are on a longterm big short from 47.10
You also know we made the trip from 40'ish to above 47 twice and our longterm shorts are still underwater. You also know that we also swung short-term shorts for +21% profits with a 1week trade.
Neither of these cycles predict price, just course and direction. Our target remains 38 WTI by Jan. 20, 2017. No do overs, not yea buts.. We feel oil will bottom on this day for cycle, and although it will take a few days to confirm a top, and could test 50 this week, we feel this marks the end of this last bull run of the year.
Sine Wave
XMR sine trendI tried to see if the trend of XMR could be represented by sine waves, which reduce their period and amplitude at each contact or approaching the edges of the two triangles in which I have confined the graph. Comparing the net flow, volume and MACD, I have noticed a reduction in the approach to the summit of the triangles, in particular the smaller one. This correlation could be confirmed if the next two points of contact occur (respectively, 25/9 22:00 and 26/9 14:00 UTC2 +). Is The trend expected to have an increase of movement in the next two days, after hitting a low of flow?
DAX - GER30 prep. to rise?The "Big-Boy fork" catches the important swings.
As we can see, price behaved textbook like where the breakouts and pullbacks occurred.
Even the sine-wave swing- pullback to the U-MLH is just perfect.
Price climbed up to where it is going over 80%, to the centerline (white fork).
On its way up, it found support at the centerline of the shiffed-fork twice (slanted blue fork).
After reaching its target at the centerline (white fork), price pulled back as expected, never really breaching its centerline resistance from the white forks centerline.
And here we are - at the centerline of the shiffed-fork, finding support again, and backed by the natural support from the previous highs.
My view:
1. Price has potential to go north again, because of all the supportive facts. (centerline, natural support, swings...).
2. Price has potential to go down to the Big-Boy's Warning-Line (WL1), because it never pulled back to it.
Choose your own move or just stay on the sidelines until something interesting show up.
P!
eurusd technical analysis combined with some fundamentals !!!On a daily chart as we can clearly see the price is oscillating in a Sine Waves between 1.15 and 1.04.
Also a head and shoulder pattern is on its way to break the inclined neck line but not yet.
Now coming to the fundamentals. Today according to a Bloomberg report the oldest Italian Bank Monte dei Paschi di Siena has lost 9% when the markets opened on Monday, all this just before the stress test scheduled by the end of the month. This allows us to think that if Italy will be the next fall in europe it can cause a domino effect in the eurozone making investors loose confidence and sell the euro !!!
Another big event as the FED rate will also affect the pair and a possible hike could make all this happen to target the pair to 1.04 again as last summer.
Anyhow this is a personal interpretation of the facts.
I will be looking forward to hear alternative scenarios :)
Long SXP500 Till the End of March Beginning of April Short AfterThe big blue arrow is pointing at a key price level which happens to intersect with the intra-bearish turquoise dashed line and the intra-bullish green dashed line. The intra-bearish turquoise dashed line is the longer-term trend over the shorter-term bullish trend as shown by the green dashed line. There is a horizontal ray at this key Fibonacci level (where the big blue arrow is pointing) to illustrate that it is in tandem with heavy price-volume action, which is subsequently followed by more heavy price-volume action above this key level due to previous trading history.
We are currently above a thin Ichimoku cloud, (and above the 200 sma on the daily chart) which is bullish and the ease of movement indicator (the bronze-green indicator at the very bottom of the chart) is turning positive which is bullish as well. When EOM (Ease of Movement Indicator) is positive, that means that prices have been closing higher than previous closes on an average of 14 days in this particular study.
We are looking good above the 20 sma in the Bollinger cloud for the shorter-term bullish trend line. The 50 sma is the black line, which is showing the overall resistance. Once we break through this level we are on our way to the convergence of all of the trend lines in the upper chart and convergence of the negative and positive directional movement indicator as shown in the lower chart; the DMI (Directional Movement Indicator). Once the directional movement indicators converge we will be in bearish territory and follow through with the overall bearish trend as shown by the turquoise dashed trend line.
Expect to see a bullish move in equities in the coming month, then a bearish follow through. Also, expect to see SPX500 to cross back down through the Ichimoku cloud in 3 weeks.
A sine wave was plotted over the chart, which also converges with the rest of the key trend and price level lines. This sine wave is accurate from roughly 2016 forward.
Enjoy and invest wisely!
USDCHF - Rebound after Head Banging on the CLLast week we had ECB decision about int. rat. to zero, what caused the flash down to the A/R line to the tick.
Now, the Action is over and the reaction can follow.
Price landed in the Buyers Zone again, which was first washed out by the Sine-Wave move down to equilibrium.
Then we see the normal "Bubble-Up" (the reaction from priors action) up to the CL, which price reaches over 80% of time.
From down here, a new story is starting beeing telled....
P!
Free for you: Action/Reaction and Forks
Daily chart SPX Stoch RSI has been very regular.A simple sine wave overlay on the S&P Stochastic RSI has been timed almost perfectly for a year and a half.
The period is about a month long.
Notice the "short circuit" between peaks during November 2014 and October 2915.
First half of each month has been bearish; second half of each month has been bullish.
Bitcoin finally going to make a moveI discovered this fib angle during the recent bull move to the upside of the local triangle. These cyclic lines and the sine wave were just put in for possible time sequencing.
I don't think this recent bullish move by LTC is going to assist BTC at all in the long run. LTC will have it's mini bull cycle and BTC will falter along the bearline. Most probably, the Dollar will find some footing and stop falling. This will cause all inverted USD currencies to find their final stop including LTC. For BTC this should be about $133 or $100 on BFX. Since BTC has already invalidated the EW on the previous bull cycle in 2013 with the pin candle of Jan '15, this should not be a surprise. This will modify the current bubble cycle for LTC and stun a lot of traders.
There is a small chance that BTC will use the LTC momentum and jump out of the bear trend for a short while. But even if it did, I still think a return to the bottom of this fib channel is required for the bear cycle to end.
Nothing fundamentally has changed with Bitcoin yet and until it does (soft/hard fork), no one is going to return to investing in the coin when there are better alternatives. Once the sidechain fork is implemented along with transaction malleability fix, there will be a huge return to the coin as a technology wonder.
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