USD/SGD Price Action: A Bearish Outlook EmergesYesterday, the USD/SGD currency pair rebounded at a supply zone around 1.34500, creating a bearish candle that has persisted into today. As I write this, the price is currently around 1.34195.
Analyzing the technical landscape, the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals that retail traders remain in long positions, while other market participants have adopted a more neutral stance without clear positioning. This scenario could allow the Singapore Dollar to capitalize on a potential retracement of the US Dollar, potentially enhancing its value.
Looking at historical trends, our forecasting data indicates that over the past decade, this period of the year has frequently seen bearish retracements for the USD against the Singapore Dollar. Given the prevailing market conditions, traders may want to consider positioning themselves for short opportunities.
As the market evolves, it is crucial to monitor price movements and broader economic trends closely to make well-informed trading decisions.
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Singapore
Rising Costs Drive Singaporeans Away from Car OwnershipOwning a car in Singapore has long been associated with substantial financial commitments, but recent developments have further escalated these costs, making vehicle ownership increasingly prohibitive for many residents.
A significant contributor to the rising expenses is the Certificate of Entitlement (COE), a mandatory permit required to own and operate a vehicle in Singapore. COE prices have surged dramatically; as of May 2024, premiums for smaller cars (Category A) reached S$92,700, while those for larger vehicles (Category B) climbed to S$105,689. These figures represent record highs, reflecting intensified competition for limited vehicle quotas.
Beyond the COE, additional taxes such as the Additional Registration Fee (ARF) have been adjusted to further deter car ownership. The ARF is calculated as a percentage of the vehicle's Open Market Value (OMV), with rates escalating for higher-value cars. In February 2023, the government increased ARF rates for luxury vehicles, imposing a tax of up to 320% on cars with an OMV exceeding S$80,000.
Operational costs have also risen. Fuel prices have been affected by global oil market fluctuations, leading to higher expenses at the pump. Additionally, Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) charges, which are levied to manage traffic congestion, have seen periodic adjustments, adding to the daily costs of driving. Parking fees, maintenance, and insurance premiums have similarly trended upwards, contributing to the overall financial burden of car ownership.
These escalating costs have prompted a shift in consumer behaviour. Many Singaporeans are reconsidering the necessity of owning a personal vehicle, opting instead for alternative modes of transportation. Public transport systems, including buses and the Mass Rapid Transit (MRT), offer comprehensive coverage and are viewed as cost-effective alternatives. Additionally, the rise of ride-hailing services provides flexible and convenient options without the long-term financial commitments associated with car ownership.
In this evolving landscape, companies like Ryde Group Limited stand to benefit. Established in 2014, Ryde is a Singapore-based technology company specialising in mobility and quick commerce solutions. Its services include on-demand and scheduled carpooling and ride-hailing options, connecting riders with a network of driver-partners. Additionally, Ryde offers real-time, on-demand, scheduled, and multi-stop parcel delivery services through its driver-partner app. In March 2024, Ryde became the first Singaporean ride-hailing startup to list on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol " RYDE ", raising US$12 million through its initial public offering.
By providing cost-effective and convenient alternatives to car ownership, Ryde is well-positioned to cater to individuals seeking to navigate Singapore's transportation network without incurring substantial expenses.
Ryde Group Ltd (NYSE: RYDE), Powering Mobility Innovation throug Ryde Group Ltd, recently listed on the NYSE American as “ RYDE ,” is revolutionising the mobility landscape by transitioning to a platform-as-a-service (PaaS) model. No longer just a ride-hailing service, Ryde now offers businesses across sectors—from logistics to quick commerce, a robust suite of tools for fleet management, driver integration, last-mile delivery, and data-driven insights.
Ryde’s shift to PaaS enables businesses to leverage its scalable, cloud-based infrastructure to streamline operations and respond to fluctuating urban demands. This modular platform provides critical flexibility, allowing companies to use Ryde’s AI-driven routing, hyperlocal delivery tracking, and advanced analytics to enhance operational efficiency. Ryde’s unique zero-commission model has also attracted a large driver network, adding value for partners without high fees.
Financially, Ryde is well-positioned for growth. Though revenue saw a slight decline in H1 2024, primarily due to the zero-commission shift to enhance market share, the company improved its adjusted EBITDA by 20%, demonstrating a commitment to sustainable, profitable growth. With cash holdings of $3.19 million and a successful additional financing round in September 2024, Ryde is equipped to continue investing in its platform and expanding its market presence.
As Ryde advances its mission to support businesses in the Asia-Pacific region, its PaaS model positions it as a key enabler in the future of urban mobility. By empowering companies with adaptable, efficient solutions, Ryde is not just keeping pace with market trends but actively shaping the future of transport and commerce.
We remain positive on the future prospects of Ryde in 2025.
Singapore ETF, EWS to decide... bear in mindNot so much bullish from US elections, and quite the opposite really.
Already broke the support line as previously marked. Now, it is in a decision zone.
MACD is crossing down and VolDiv already crossed down.
Looks a more bearish outcome tho... even with a surging US market, the EWS would probably taper down instead of fall off cliff kind of thing.
Singapore STI ETF (EWS) - Retracement modeIt has been a while since I pulled up this chart. Missed on the bullish breakouts twice in 2024. Thing is that it is very obvious the technical indicators are stretched and long in the teeth... and a recent spike ended with a consolidation.
Given all these, a break down of the condolidation support would spell a strong retracement.
Coming soon... akan datang.
Ryde Group Limited: A Look at Singapore’s Super Mobility AppRyde Group Limited (NASDAQ: RYDE) , a Singaporean tech company founded in 2014, has set its sights on becoming a “super mobility app,” integrating ride-hailing, carpooling, and parcel delivery under one platform. It aims to simplify urban transportation and logistics, catering to both individual users and businesses.
Ryde’s business operates in two key segments.
First, the mobility services segment, which started with carpooling and later expanded to ride-hailing options like RydeX, RydeXL, and RydeLUXE. This segment also includes tailored services like RydeFLASH for fast rides and RydePET for pet transport, demonstrating the company’s flexibility in meeting diverse user needs.
The second segment is quick commerce, which focuses on parcel delivery through RydeSEND, catering to e-commerce and F&B businesses. The acquisition of Meili Technologies Pte. Ltd. in early 2023 boosted Ryde’s capabilities in this space.
The market potential for Ryde is strong. Singapore’s mobility market, expected to grow at a CAGR of 26.7% and reach USD 6 billion by 2027, offers a significant opportunity. Likewise, the quick commerce sector is projected to grow from USD 6.4 billion in 2022 to USD 13.5 billion by 2027, driven by digital adoption and convenience-focused consumer behaviour. Ryde’s approach of integrating these services positions it well for growth.
Financially, Ryde has shown promising revenue growth, increasing from S$6.2 million in 2021 to S$8.8 million in 2022, with further growth in the first half of 2023 to S$5.2 million. However, profitability remains elusive, with net losses widening from S$1.2 million in 2021 to S$5 million in 2022, continuing into 2023 with a S$4 million loss in the first half.
These losses are primarily due to increased spending on incentives, tech development, and expansion efforts. The balance sheet shows a need for more capital, with liabilities reaching S$12.9 million by mid-2023 and limited cash reserves of S$2.3 million.
Ryde’s strategic plans include diversifying services and improving user experience. The acquisition of Meili reflects its ambitions for growth, and future strategies may involve more partnerships, joint ventures, or acquisitions. While its vision aligns well with market trends, achieving profitability will require disciplined cost management, and strong user engagement.
In summary, Ryde offers exciting growth potential as it seeks to redefine urban transportation and logistics. It has the ingredients to become a strong player in Southeast Asia, but success will depend on its ability to execute strategically while managing costs and securing sufficient capital to support its expansion plans.
Predictive Correlation the SG10Y Bond Yields on S&P500I have posted about this correlation previously. Perhaps this time it might be clearer to see...
This uncanny correlation between the SG10Y Govt Bond Yields as a leading indicator for the S&P500 was noticed some time ago, and tested since.
As shown, the major turning points were seen in trend changes of the SG10Y GBonds first, before the S&P500 reacted. The vertical time markings show when you would short or long depending on the trend breakouts of the SG10Y GBonds (see lower panel, blue line),
Comcomitantly, comparing what happens from that point, you can see the S&P500 in the upper panel with yellow line.
The lowest panel is the MACD... and this shows the correlated pattern of a (lagging) technical indicator.
Since 2023, there are at least six instances with 100% hit rate.
Now... that brings us to TODAY.
It appears that we are given advance warning of the next couple of months.
For now, there should be a quick pop up to the very recent high followed by a failure of support in the S&P500; and then the expected trends should play out...
Asian Currencies May Stall as Jackson Hole Looms Investors will be watching a series of key Asian central bank decisions and inflation reports this week, as regional currencies rally to annual highs.
The Bank of Korea is set to announce its rate decision on Thursday, followed by inflation data from Japan and Singapore on Friday.
The U.S. dollar's slide resumed from last week, with markets embracing a risk-on sentiment. The yen climbed past 146 per dollar, marking its strongest level in nearly two weeks. Further selling could open up the 140.450 mark.
However, Bank of America sees the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium as a game-changer, with Fed Chair Powell possibly striking a more hawkish tone, which could strengthen the dollar. This could make the Asian currencies trades interesting considering the risk-on sentiment that has helped push them to multi-month and yearly highs.
The South Korean won has surged to a five-month high, as the central bank is unlikely to cut interest rates this week. The BOK is expected to maintain its policy rate at 3.50%.
The Singapore dollar has also extended its gains, reaching an 18-month high.
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 49 - GBPSGD - (18th June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing GBPSGD, starting from the 3-Month chart.
If you want to learn more, check out my profile.
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Nuvei Secures Singapore MPI LicenseIn a strategic move aimed at bolstering its presence in the dynamic Asia-Pacific (APAC) market, Nuvei ( NASDAQ:NVEI ) has achieved a significant milestone by securing a major payment institution (MPI) license from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). This pivotal development marks a crucial step forward in Nuvei's ambitious expansion plans and underscores its commitment to providing cutting-edge payment solutions to businesses across the region.
The newly acquired MPI license empowers Nuvei's ( NASDAQ:NVEI ) regional entity, Nuvei Singapore Pte Ltd., to offer a wide array of payment services in Singapore, including domestic and international money transfers, as well as merchant acquisition services. Notably, the ability to facilitate international money transfers through direct card payouts represents a key addition to Nuvei's suite of payment solutions, further enhancing its value proposition in the APAC market.
Philip Fayer, Nuvei's esteemed Chair and CEO, expressed his enthusiasm for the company's foray into the APAC region, emphasizing the strategic significance of Singapore as a hub for financial innovation and technological advancement. Fayer underscored Nuvei's commitment to delivering innovative payment solutions tailored to the unique needs of businesses operating in this critically important region, thereby solidifying Nuvei's position as a leading player in the global payments ecosystem.
Founded in 2003 and headquartered in Montréal, Nuvei ( NASDAQ:NVEI ) has earned a reputation as a trusted provider of payment processing technology, offering a comprehensive suite of solutions encompassing risk and fraud management, as well as banking and card issuing services. With its proven track record of empowering enterprises to navigate the complexities of the digital economy, Nuvei ( NASDAQ:NVEI ) is poised to capitalize on the vast opportunities presented by the burgeoning APAC market.
The announcement of Nuvei's MPI license in Singapore comes on the heels of another momentous development—the company's recent agreement to be acquired by US private equity firm Advent International in a landmark deal valued at $6.3 billion. This strategic partnership is poised to further accelerate Nuvei's growth trajectory and reinforce its position as a formidable force in the global payments landscape.
Moreover, MAS's proactive approach in granting MPI licenses to leading global paytech firms underscores Singapore's status as a premier fintech hub and underscores the regulator's commitment to fostering innovation and competition in the payments industry. With companies like Nuvei and TerraPay receiving MPI licenses, Singapore is poised to emerge as a pivotal gateway for fintech innovation and expansion in the APAC region and beyond.
As Nuvei ( NASDAQ:NVEI ) sets its sights on unlocking the vast potential of the APAC market, fueled by its newly acquired MPI license and strategic partnerships, the company is poised to redefine the future of payments and drive sustainable growth and prosperity for businesses across the region and beyond.
Singapore STI ETF (EWS) - Royal Flush Part VEWS really going to do it this time it seems... close below the support line.
This is premature on the weekly chart, but heads up, two things to happen...
First, a close below the support means a breakdown underway, especially if it is accompanied with a lower low.
Second, there needs to be a late week rebound strong enough to get it back above support line. Then there is half a chance for a reversal.
MACD appears not as bearish really.
VolDiv is somewhat bullish to be honest.
I'd watch this closely...
Singapore STI ETF (EWS) - Royal Flush Part IVAs previously posted, BEAR. The thing is, since the last post, the EWS (and other indices) made a sucker rally that pulled in the bulls. And a few weeks later, they burned.
This time, the burn is shown by a failed breakout that is followed through the other side. Technical indicators are now in full support as cross downs are registered. Critical supports are broken. New downside targets shown.
SINGAPORE STI ETF (EWS) - Royal Flush part IIIJust to highlight the Singapore going into technical recession]news first... that a technical recession is in the horizon, closer than we even realize.
Otherwise, the EWS SG Singapore ETF, is technically challenged, with imminent downside.
1. Lower high made, and a possible imminent lower low to come in the next weeks. Breakdown below the red line is a lower low;
2. Downside target 1 hit. One more much further;
3. Last week's candlestick has momentum for more downside;
4. MACD crossed down and below zeroline; and
5. VolDiv continues to deteriorate...
All these points to breaking a lower low, and thereafter more downside to the lower target
SINGAPORE STI ETF (EWS) - Royal Flush part IIAs expected previously, the Singapore STI (EWS) hit the first target range. It appears to have bounced off a bit in the short week (Friday is a Public Holiday, being Vesak Day). However, the technical indicators accentuate that there is more downside to come...
Breaking down below the support to form a lower low is confirmation for the lower target to be the next downside target.
SG10Y Govt Bond and SPY relationship Part VI - Bear for EquitiesAs mentioned in previous heads up over the last weeks, it had finally happened (as expected) that the SG10Y GB yield rates break out of trend line resistance. And from previous occurrences, this is a very reliable inverse leading indicator of the SPY (and other related equity indexes); meaning that the SPY should be tanking downwards within the next week or so.
Enough said,
pattern recognition checked,
trend correlation checked,
projection based on hypothesis checked...
now the rubber hits the road.
Not expecting any deviation from the correlation, so is very likely that equities should be tipping over in a bearish slide.
HEADS UP!