Singapore ETF, EWS to decide... bear in mindNot so much bullish from US elections, and quite the opposite really.
Already broke the support line as previously marked. Now, it is in a decision zone.
MACD is crossing down and VolDiv already crossed down.
Looks a more bearish outcome tho... even with a surging US market, the EWS would probably taper down instead of fall off cliff kind of thing.
Singapore
Singapore STI ETF (EWS) - Retracement modeIt has been a while since I pulled up this chart. Missed on the bullish breakouts twice in 2024. Thing is that it is very obvious the technical indicators are stretched and long in the teeth... and a recent spike ended with a consolidation.
Given all these, a break down of the condolidation support would spell a strong retracement.
Coming soon... akan datang.
Ryde Group Limited: A Look at Singapore’s Super Mobility AppRyde Group Limited (NASDAQ: RYDE) , a Singaporean tech company founded in 2014, has set its sights on becoming a “super mobility app,” integrating ride-hailing, carpooling, and parcel delivery under one platform. It aims to simplify urban transportation and logistics, catering to both individual users and businesses.
Ryde’s business operates in two key segments.
First, the mobility services segment, which started with carpooling and later expanded to ride-hailing options like RydeX, RydeXL, and RydeLUXE. This segment also includes tailored services like RydeFLASH for fast rides and RydePET for pet transport, demonstrating the company’s flexibility in meeting diverse user needs.
The second segment is quick commerce, which focuses on parcel delivery through RydeSEND, catering to e-commerce and F&B businesses. The acquisition of Meili Technologies Pte. Ltd. in early 2023 boosted Ryde’s capabilities in this space.
The market potential for Ryde is strong. Singapore’s mobility market, expected to grow at a CAGR of 26.7% and reach USD 6 billion by 2027, offers a significant opportunity. Likewise, the quick commerce sector is projected to grow from USD 6.4 billion in 2022 to USD 13.5 billion by 2027, driven by digital adoption and convenience-focused consumer behaviour. Ryde’s approach of integrating these services positions it well for growth.
Financially, Ryde has shown promising revenue growth, increasing from S$6.2 million in 2021 to S$8.8 million in 2022, with further growth in the first half of 2023 to S$5.2 million. However, profitability remains elusive, with net losses widening from S$1.2 million in 2021 to S$5 million in 2022, continuing into 2023 with a S$4 million loss in the first half.
These losses are primarily due to increased spending on incentives, tech development, and expansion efforts. The balance sheet shows a need for more capital, with liabilities reaching S$12.9 million by mid-2023 and limited cash reserves of S$2.3 million.
Ryde’s strategic plans include diversifying services and improving user experience. The acquisition of Meili reflects its ambitions for growth, and future strategies may involve more partnerships, joint ventures, or acquisitions. While its vision aligns well with market trends, achieving profitability will require disciplined cost management, and strong user engagement.
In summary, Ryde offers exciting growth potential as it seeks to redefine urban transportation and logistics. It has the ingredients to become a strong player in Southeast Asia, but success will depend on its ability to execute strategically while managing costs and securing sufficient capital to support its expansion plans.
Predictive Correlation the SG10Y Bond Yields on S&P500I have posted about this correlation previously. Perhaps this time it might be clearer to see...
This uncanny correlation between the SG10Y Govt Bond Yields as a leading indicator for the S&P500 was noticed some time ago, and tested since.
As shown, the major turning points were seen in trend changes of the SG10Y GBonds first, before the S&P500 reacted. The vertical time markings show when you would short or long depending on the trend breakouts of the SG10Y GBonds (see lower panel, blue line),
Comcomitantly, comparing what happens from that point, you can see the S&P500 in the upper panel with yellow line.
The lowest panel is the MACD... and this shows the correlated pattern of a (lagging) technical indicator.
Since 2023, there are at least six instances with 100% hit rate.
Now... that brings us to TODAY.
It appears that we are given advance warning of the next couple of months.
For now, there should be a quick pop up to the very recent high followed by a failure of support in the S&P500; and then the expected trends should play out...
Asian Currencies May Stall as Jackson Hole Looms Investors will be watching a series of key Asian central bank decisions and inflation reports this week, as regional currencies rally to annual highs.
The Bank of Korea is set to announce its rate decision on Thursday, followed by inflation data from Japan and Singapore on Friday.
The U.S. dollar's slide resumed from last week, with markets embracing a risk-on sentiment. The yen climbed past 146 per dollar, marking its strongest level in nearly two weeks. Further selling could open up the 140.450 mark.
However, Bank of America sees the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium as a game-changer, with Fed Chair Powell possibly striking a more hawkish tone, which could strengthen the dollar. This could make the Asian currencies trades interesting considering the risk-on sentiment that has helped push them to multi-month and yearly highs.
The South Korean won has surged to a five-month high, as the central bank is unlikely to cut interest rates this week. The BOK is expected to maintain its policy rate at 3.50%.
The Singapore dollar has also extended its gains, reaching an 18-month high.
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 49 - GBPSGD - (18th June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing GBPSGD, starting from the 3-Month chart.
If you want to learn more, check out my profile.
BiTGET (BGB): $0.45 | a gem in plain sight it takes few years for that one big thing to rise from chaos
this Exchange could be it
fast simple reliable and secure
decent liquidity
flexible platform
and so much more
probably the twin or offspring of Binance and Ftx
just dca accordingly and good luck
before listing in Binance
before being allocated to OKEX (binance done thru dealer)
there is BitGET where DEX Ogs and Defi Gurus come to feast
(in addition to MEXC)
this is where gems and next big things reside under the custody of the YOU KNOW WHO
Nuvei Secures Singapore MPI LicenseIn a strategic move aimed at bolstering its presence in the dynamic Asia-Pacific (APAC) market, Nuvei ( NASDAQ:NVEI ) has achieved a significant milestone by securing a major payment institution (MPI) license from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). This pivotal development marks a crucial step forward in Nuvei's ambitious expansion plans and underscores its commitment to providing cutting-edge payment solutions to businesses across the region.
The newly acquired MPI license empowers Nuvei's ( NASDAQ:NVEI ) regional entity, Nuvei Singapore Pte Ltd., to offer a wide array of payment services in Singapore, including domestic and international money transfers, as well as merchant acquisition services. Notably, the ability to facilitate international money transfers through direct card payouts represents a key addition to Nuvei's suite of payment solutions, further enhancing its value proposition in the APAC market.
Philip Fayer, Nuvei's esteemed Chair and CEO, expressed his enthusiasm for the company's foray into the APAC region, emphasizing the strategic significance of Singapore as a hub for financial innovation and technological advancement. Fayer underscored Nuvei's commitment to delivering innovative payment solutions tailored to the unique needs of businesses operating in this critically important region, thereby solidifying Nuvei's position as a leading player in the global payments ecosystem.
Founded in 2003 and headquartered in Montréal, Nuvei ( NASDAQ:NVEI ) has earned a reputation as a trusted provider of payment processing technology, offering a comprehensive suite of solutions encompassing risk and fraud management, as well as banking and card issuing services. With its proven track record of empowering enterprises to navigate the complexities of the digital economy, Nuvei ( NASDAQ:NVEI ) is poised to capitalize on the vast opportunities presented by the burgeoning APAC market.
The announcement of Nuvei's MPI license in Singapore comes on the heels of another momentous development—the company's recent agreement to be acquired by US private equity firm Advent International in a landmark deal valued at $6.3 billion. This strategic partnership is poised to further accelerate Nuvei's growth trajectory and reinforce its position as a formidable force in the global payments landscape.
Moreover, MAS's proactive approach in granting MPI licenses to leading global paytech firms underscores Singapore's status as a premier fintech hub and underscores the regulator's commitment to fostering innovation and competition in the payments industry. With companies like Nuvei and TerraPay receiving MPI licenses, Singapore is poised to emerge as a pivotal gateway for fintech innovation and expansion in the APAC region and beyond.
As Nuvei ( NASDAQ:NVEI ) sets its sights on unlocking the vast potential of the APAC market, fueled by its newly acquired MPI license and strategic partnerships, the company is poised to redefine the future of payments and drive sustainable growth and prosperity for businesses across the region and beyond.
Singapore STI ETF (EWS) - Royal Flush Part VEWS really going to do it this time it seems... close below the support line.
This is premature on the weekly chart, but heads up, two things to happen...
First, a close below the support means a breakdown underway, especially if it is accompanied with a lower low.
Second, there needs to be a late week rebound strong enough to get it back above support line. Then there is half a chance for a reversal.
MACD appears not as bearish really.
VolDiv is somewhat bullish to be honest.
I'd watch this closely...
Singapore STI ETF (EWS) - Royal Flush Part IVAs previously posted, BEAR. The thing is, since the last post, the EWS (and other indices) made a sucker rally that pulled in the bulls. And a few weeks later, they burned.
This time, the burn is shown by a failed breakout that is followed through the other side. Technical indicators are now in full support as cross downs are registered. Critical supports are broken. New downside targets shown.
SINGAPORE STI ETF (EWS) - Royal Flush part IIIJust to highlight the Singapore going into technical recession]news first... that a technical recession is in the horizon, closer than we even realize.
Otherwise, the EWS SG Singapore ETF, is technically challenged, with imminent downside.
1. Lower high made, and a possible imminent lower low to come in the next weeks. Breakdown below the red line is a lower low;
2. Downside target 1 hit. One more much further;
3. Last week's candlestick has momentum for more downside;
4. MACD crossed down and below zeroline; and
5. VolDiv continues to deteriorate...
All these points to breaking a lower low, and thereafter more downside to the lower target
SINGAPORE STI ETF (EWS) - Royal Flush part IIAs expected previously, the Singapore STI (EWS) hit the first target range. It appears to have bounced off a bit in the short week (Friday is a Public Holiday, being Vesak Day). However, the technical indicators accentuate that there is more downside to come...
Breaking down below the support to form a lower low is confirmation for the lower target to be the next downside target.
SG10Y Govt Bond and SPY relationship Part VI - Bear for EquitiesAs mentioned in previous heads up over the last weeks, it had finally happened (as expected) that the SG10Y GB yield rates break out of trend line resistance. And from previous occurrences, this is a very reliable inverse leading indicator of the SPY (and other related equity indexes); meaning that the SPY should be tanking downwards within the next week or so.
Enough said,
pattern recognition checked,
trend correlation checked,
projection based on hypothesis checked...
now the rubber hits the road.
Not expecting any deviation from the correlation, so is very likely that equities should be tipping over in a bearish slide.
HEADS UP!
SINGAPORE STI ETF (EWS) - Royal FlushMultiple signals all aligned to much more downside in the Singapore STI...
1. A lower high. Watch for the lower low incoming!
2. Break out and then break back into the consolidation range. This is the second time, and expect an extrusion through the bottom of the range.
3. MACD lower high, and crossed down. Bearish oops, look from crossing down into bear territory soon.
4. VolDiv crossed down.
Targets drawn.
On the other hand, the SG10Y bond yield just broke out too. This represents a flight to safety already in the making.
Heads up!!!
DBS to Gain as Funds Rain in SingaporeDBS is positioned uniquely at the intersection of both India and China to gain from growth in both countries. Facilitating capital flows out of China, continued rising footprint in India, digital asset presence, a trusted bank in Singapore which is emerging as the Swiss of Asia, DBS has more than one source of tailwind powering its upward flight.
Specifically, this paper identifies five key drivers powering DBS shares. Against the backdrop of sharp recession ahead, this paper posits a case study delivering 2.8x reward to risk ratio through a spread comprising of long DBS shares and short MSCI Singapore Index futures to gain from expected outperformance.
The DBS Story
Launched >50 years ago, DBS is the largest bank in South-East Asia and rubbing shoulders among global banks with S$743B in assets as of December 2022. Its diverse services cover consumer banking, asset management, brokerage, and digital assets. DBS' robust capital position, strong governance, and solid operational practices, with MAS as the regulator, makes it a bank with the highest credit ratings in APAC.
“Live More, Bank Less” defines the essence of the bank's strategy. DBS aspiration goes beyond being the best bank but aspires to deliver experience that's world class and on par with GANDALF firms. GANDALF stands for Google, Amazon, Netflix, Apple, LinkedIn, and Facebook. And D? DBS, of course.
A key figure in the transformation has been its CEO Piyush Gupta who has helmed its leadership since 2009 and is seen as instrumental in the bank's meteoric rise as a global banking player.
Last year, DBS delivered stunning record profits of S$8.2B driven by surging rates. 2022 was not entirely hunky dory as fees and commissions declined 12% YoY.
DBS expects 2023 to be better with a forecast of double-digit fee income growth plus rising income from cards business. While loan growth slowed with rising rates, DBS continued to gain market share across both corporate and consumer loans.
Key growth driver for DBS in 2023 and for the rest of the decade is the wealth migration from China. Singapore is a key destination for capital taking flight out of China. DBS is strongly positioned to take advantage of this as a trusted and customer-focused banking partner.
Five factors to propel DBS shares ahead:
1. Chinese Wealth Migration
Ultra rich Chinese have been emigrating with Singapore as the preferred destination. China’s crackdown on its business and entrepreneur class with a focus on “common prosperity”.
China faced capital flight of about $150B annually from its citizens migrating. Capital flight in 2023 is expected to be far higher, with some estimates suggesting it could top $100-$200B.
About 10,800 rich Chinese migrated in 2022, the highest since 2019, according to Henley & Partners. China has the world’s second-largest number of ultra-rich with more than 32,000 people holding wealth more than $50M.
DBS holds a key position to capitalize on this trend as the leading and trusted bank in Singapore. It is not just the Chinese but also the wealthy from India, Indonesia and Thailand finding Singapore as a convenient home for them and their wealth.
2. Regional Expansion via Digital First Strategy
DBS’s digitization dovetails nicely into their regional expansion as digitised infrastructure easily transcends geography.
Case in point is DBS' expansion into India. It had its presence in India since 1994. However, it was with the launch of Digibank India in 2016 that propelled its footprint in the country.
Digibank India was the first mobile-only, paperless, signatureless, and branchless bank in India. This allowed them to expand rapidly in the country while India was going through its own financial digitization following demonetization exercise in 2016. This provided DBS with a strong launchpad while keeping operational costs at bay.
DBS India has seen its deposits grow consistently since launch with a huge jump following the acquisition of Laxmi Vilas Bank (LVB). Over the past 3 years, DBS India has doubled its revenue. DBS has been profitable since launch, except for a tiny loss in 2017-18. LVB acquisition enabled DBS to expand its branch presence nearly 18x from mere 30 to >500.
3. Bold Forays into Digital Assets
In 2020, DBS launched DBS Digital Exchange (DDEx) enabling institutional and accredited investors to access digital assets.
With rising regulations for crypto firms, a fully regulated digital exchange like DDEx from a trusted bank such as DBS is a safe haven for digital asset investors.
Success of DDEx is evident in its performance in 2022 when BTC trading on the exchange increased 80% YoY. BTC’s custodied on the exchange also doubled while ETH custodied on the exchange increased 60%. DDEx also doubled its customer base to nearly 1,200 last year.
4. Deep Digitisation
CEO inspired DBS' purpose driven digital adoption agenda in 2014, with a five-year roadmap and a lofty aim of being named the best bank in the world.
DBS approached the challenge by thinking and operating like a major tech firm instead of a bank. It overhauled its internal tech, 90% of which was developed and managed in-house making it cloud-native enabling rapid scaling and easy deployment.
DBS pioneered “Digibank,” a mobile only bank that allowed it to scale rapidly and with low cost per retail customer. Digital customers have two times higher income per client compared to traditional clients with cost to income ratio of 34% relative to 54% for traditional clients.
5. Startup Mentality
Making Banking Joyful. DBS is deliberate in becoming ever more customer-centric by cleverly tailoring each customer journey to be hassle-free and enjoyable. The bank aims to become “invisible” to its customer while meeting their banking, financial, and investing needs.
In instilling a start-up culture, the leadership team continues to cultivate agility, continuous learning, customer obsession, data-driven experimentation and risk-taking across the organisation.
DBS Outperforms other Singapore Banks
Among top three Singapore Banks:
• DBS has the highest ROE at 14.95%.
• DBS operating margins of 41.5% are far higher than others.
• DBS margins are twice those of OCBC.
• DBS grew its Free Cash Flow at 76.5% YoY, far higher than others.
• DBS has the lowest P/E ratio making the stock relatively undervalued.
• DBS ROIC of 8.2% is marginally lower than OCBC’s 8.75%
• DBS asset growth of 8.3% YoY in 2022, lower than UOB’s 9.8%.
This puts DBS in a far better financial position than the other Singapore banks.
The better performance is also highlighted by DBS stock’s price action. Since Piyush Gupta took over as CEO in 2009, DBS has outperformed OCBC and UOB by an outsized margin and the stock stands nearly 300% higher in the period.
Similarly, since the start of 2020, DBS is up 29% and has outperformed the other two banks vindicating its strategy and execution.
Comparative Analysis with Other Global Banks
DBS shines bright among the global banking majors too as evident below.
• DBS has the highest Return on Equity at 15%
• DBS has the highest Return on Invested Capital at 8.2%
• DBS price to earnings is 6.85 only higher than BNP & Barclays
DBS strong operational efficiency stands out even among the top global bank. Additionally, DBS reported 8.3% annual asset growth in 2022, compared to US banks which have had moderate asset growth or decline.
Since 2009, DBS stock has far outperformed other major global banks and stands second only to JP Morgan.
Notably, DBS has also outperformed the KBW Bank ETF which tracks the performance of US Banks signalling that DBS has been providing stronger growth than the average growth of the US banking industry, particularly during the high-inflation environment of 2022.
The trend is even more apparent when looking at the performance of these stocks since the start of 2020. Among the selected banks, DBS is the only bank that has shown strong gains during the pandemic and stands ~30% higher. Other banks have either posted modest gains or losses.
In addition to providing strong growth, which is reflected in DBS stock’s price action, DBS also has a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders which can be seen from their nearly 4.1% dividend yield.
DBS annual dividend yield has grown by about 100 bps since 2020. Its dividend in 2022 of S$1.5/share exceeded pre-pandemic levels. DBS also announced a special S$0.5/share dividend last quarter reflecting improved earnings profile and strong capital position.
2023 Growth Outlook
Analysts expect DBS to continue its meteoric rise, with an average forecast of 15% growth in 2023. Some analysts expect DBS to be 31% higher while even the lowest forecasts are for -11% decline.
Key drivers for this growth are expected to be:
• Lean operational strategy and structure leading to lower operational costs.
• Capital outflows from China.
• Regional expansion strategy using their digital banking template.
DBS stock has rallied 86% since March 2020, compared to the Straits Times Index which is only 36% higher in the same period. DBS is the largest constituent of the STI and a major driver of growth for Singapore stocks.
Overall, DBS bucked the overall trend in the banking sector and provided growth in an immensely challenging environment by focusing on sustainable growth and lower costs.
What about the banking crisis?
Investing in bank stocks when uncertainty in the sector is so high can be daunting. The collapse of SVB, shuttering of Signature, and acquisition of Credit Suisse has incited turmoil in markets despite central banks stepping in to ease liquidity concerns and avoid contagion.
Amid the crisis there has been discussion of loose regulatory practices and risky bets. However, in Singapore, MAS keeps a tight check on the risk management of banks in the country.
According to Moody’s, DBS bank still has the highest tier credit ratings and none of its holding are currently under watch. Such stellar ratings suggest that DBS has extremely strong capacity to meet its financial commitments, making it unlikely to be affected by any remaining contagion in the sector.
MAS’s strict stewardship of Singapore banks was underscored by a recent outage in DBS digital services. Though the services were promptly restored on the same day, MAS ordered a thorough investigation into the outage. The outage also affected DBS stock price, driving it 1.5% lower but the stock quickly recovered. Both highlight the resilience in the regulatory, operational, and governance practices at DBS.
Trade Setup
In times of elevated stress, stock betas can spike causing share prices to tank on macroeconomic shocks. To harness pure alpha, this paper posits a spread with long DBS and short MSCI Singapore Index futures.
The spread trade ensures that the position remains hedged against a broader market downturn. DBS has outperformed MSCI Singapore index consistently over the past 10 years.
MSCI Futures on SGX (SGP1!) give exposure to S$100 x index price which translates into a notional value of S$30,905. On SGX, lot sizes for individual stocks are 100 which means that in order to balance the notional on both legs, 9 lots of DBS shares are required which translates into a notional value of S$30,042.
Entry: 10.8%
Target Level: 12.5%
Stop Level: 10.2%
Profit at Target: S$ 4,726
Loss at Stop: S$ 1,671
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.