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Navigating the Bias Shift : GBPJPY 27/9I am intraday bearish bias for Sterling today (both technical and fundamental rationale). I have marked levels that, if reached, will wait for a bearish signal. Price could go further down without tapping in these levels, which I would not chase. Let the price comes to me. The daily range yesterday was small compared to the 120 pips 20-day ADR so I am expecting a price expansion today between 130-150 pips. There are no risk events for the U.K and Japan
Short
by sufiansaid
Navigating through Aramco B.S - I am still bullish BrentI am still bullish Brent for both technical and fundamental reasons. Fundamentally (and I am extremely oversimplifying this) am on the side who thinks 10-weeks restoration of the oil pipe/oil production is too ambitious and all a smoke screen. Technically, the daily chart still tells me we should be bias on the LONG side and P3 Bullish activation happened yesterday (Price broke below Monday low) I would warrant a long position now half the risk I usually put out and I would anticipate price would trade lower than yesterday's low around 61.500-60.500. If that happens, then my conviction to LONG Brent would increase and I would "bet" with the remaining risk I accommodate for this pair. To understand the P3 activation, please find the link attached below (Monday with Tue/Wed Relationship)
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by sufiansaid
reading the right side of the chart : GBPCHF 25 SeptYesterday's trading range was 70-72 pips whilst the 20-day ADR was 102 pips. In a day when there was a risk event (political) and there was a stop hunt spike during the London session, it is indeed a bizarre day. After a "missed" day, I always anticipate a price expansion within 36 hours. I am still bullish on Sterling hence I am still waiting and looking for a low of the week anchor which I hope would form around these price levels 1.22700-1.22850. There is an ongoing risk for this plan which is Brexit Brexit Brexit. There is no risk event for Switzerland today.
by sufiansaid
Update AUDUSD This is referring to initial AUDUSD plan (below) RBA was less dovish than what the "market" expected. Technically, i was hoping the price would go up, which it did, and tap into chunks of buy orders. I am still bearish the Aussie in spite of that RBA statement. Even if his words had much more weight than just a spike reaction (in truth, it was an opportunity to load positions from the bank, the liquidity run), I THINK (an opinion, don't need your bark as if I am saying it like its fact) its priced in already. I could be wrong and I don't care. I will react what the chart is telling me. And the reaction would be a bearish signal at any point of the day, I will short AUDUSD since price have gone into the minimal point for me to short. (refer to the initial post) There is no risk event for Australia, HOWEVER, there is a rate decision from the RBNZ which could effect this pair via AUDNZD.
Short
by sufiansaid
Update : GBPJPY PlanI don't need to do hindsight analysis/review of this pair (any pair really). I can say this though.. that stop hunt during a risk event? "experts" in the media claims the spike was a headline reaction . The fact that Sterling was BID literally 5 minutes before the confirmation of the supreme court it was claimed by the media experts that it's due to "buy the rumour, sell the fact" I see in a different angle though. LIQUIDITY RUN. Buy Stops stacked just around Monday's high (obvious level hence banks use it against us/for them). The bank made a liquidity run/stop hunt. From that hunt, now the range have been formed, setting up traps for breakout traders or range traders. Technically I am still bullish on Sterling. I don't have a rationale based on sentiment/fundamental analysis apart from Sterling is almost all about Brexit nowadays so I gather from yesterday's supreme court decision, sterling is bid right now I guess? I wont allow it to confuse me because my SOP is clear, if there is no clear sentiment/fundamental analysis based bias, I just rely on what the charts telling me I am looking at the liquidity pool (marked in the chart) and if price goes there the low of the week formed, I will look to Long GBPJPY (and other GBP pairs)
Long
by sufiansaid
Navigating through Aramco's B.S : BrentI think the market was pricing in the narrative pushed by Aramco that Saudi would only lose not more than 80 barrels per day a few hours after the price spike. Now even Saudi officials stated that it would take more time than what Aramco pushed into the media. Some experts claim that Saudi will lose more than 80 barrels per day and there will be a supply crisis in the future. Speculators are net-long for Brent futures and in the spot market, institutional traders are putting a lot of split orders, testing the water for liquidity hence the price right now is in a tight range. I am long bias for BRENT and i am looking at another test on the liquidity pool I have identified.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by sufiansaid
Navigating the RBA Rate Cuts - Pricing In AUDUSD 23 SeptSentiment/fundamental rationale tells me to look for short signals only this week. It is reported that the market is starting to price in RBA rate cuts on Oct 1st (81% as of now so plenty of moves to be had) Technically it is very obvious, at least in an intraday context, AUDUSD have been trading lower and now in an intraday bearish trend. Since I am bearish on the AUDUSD, I am looking to "short the rallies". I have identified several liquidity spots, which I marked with green sniper crosshair, as a place I would place my short (if there were bearish signal). The targets potentially be the Boomerang level (purple line) or the 20-week AWR downside projection
Short
by sufiansaid
Navigating the BEAST (GBPJPY) - 23 Sep 2019Last week's range was approx 190 pips whilst the 20-week AWR was 275 pips. It was a "miss" hence I am anticipating a price expansion (weekly) probably hitting several pips more than next week's 20-week AWR , which probably be around 300-320 pips give or take. My bias for GBPJPY is bullish hence I am looking at "support" levels to go Long. If price enters in the liquidity pool at 1.3300-1.3900, that will activate my bullish mode and will LONG if there is a trigger for me to do so. My potential target is illustrated in the chart: the liquidity pool on the upside at 1.35650 - 1.35950 Side note, if you are a scalper, you probably have a chance to short GBPJPY when the price reaches between 1.34650-1.34900 and target at the liquidity pool below. There is no risk event for the U.K and Japan have a bank holiday on Monday
Long
by sufiansaid
Navigating the USDCAD 23 Sep 2019Last week's range was approx 100 pips whilst the 20-week AWR was 151 pips. It was a "miss" hence I am anticipating a price expansion (weekly) probably hitting 10% more than next week's 20-week AWR, which probably be around 160-170 pips give or take. My bias for USDCAD is bullish hence I am looking at "support" levels to go Long. If price enters in the liquidity pool at 1.31950-1.3200 and 1.32170-1.32380, that will activate my bullish mode and will LONG if there is a trigger for me to do so. My potential targets are illustrated in the chart: the liquidity pool on the upside at 1.33050-1.33200, Boomerang Level** and the 20-week ADR upside projection **you can read here to understand the Boomerang concept : There is no risk event for the U.S and Canada
Long
by sufiansaid
Navigating the Market : USDCHF (EURUSD cousin)Last week's range was 118 pips whilst the 20-week Average Weekly Range (20-day AWR ) was 124 pips. I would consider it as a range hit This upcoming week's 20-week Average Weekly Range is 124pips. My bias for this pair is bullish (I am bullish on USD across the board) hence I will be looking to LONG at dips and/or at a completion of a stop hunts/liquidity run at a potential low of the week. My guesstimate of this upcoming week's low between 0.98800 and 0.99000. If price enters this liquidity pool that will activate my bullish bias and I will wait for the bullish trigger. There is a reported Option Expiry at 0.97800, that would probably become my first take profit target. It coincides with a liquidity pool to the upside as well and 13-18 pips aways from the 20-week Average Weekly upside projection. No risk event for U.S and Switzerland
Long
by sufiansaid
Navigating the Market : USDJPY 23 September 2019I am bullish bias for this pair. My sentiment/fundamental analysis rationale to be bullish is the hawkish Fed's rate cut and the easing safe haven flow based on the US-China trade war and the potential "Oil War" provoked by Houthi's strike at Saudi two big oilfields. My technical rational to be bullish is what I read from the daily chart (I am not sharing how I deduced the daily chart for now) Last week's range was 96 pips whilst the 20-week Average Weekly Range (20-day AWR) was 147 pips. I am anticipating a price expansion (weekly range wise) this coming week to the upside. This week's 20-week Average Weekly Range is 146 pips. As I am bullish for this pair, naturally I am looking for the low of the week as late as Wednesday but it could happen as early as Monday Asian session. My guesstimate of this upcoming week's low around 107.350 - 107.500. There are reported sell stops at 107.250 and some huge option expiries in this price as well. If price enters the liquidity pool 107.350-107.250, that will activate my bullish bias and I will wait for the bullish trigger. Monday is a bank holiday in Japan and no risk event for U.S
Long
by sufiansaid
Navigating the Market : EURUSD 21st Sept 2019In terms of sentiment & fundamental analysis, last week and this coming week I have established a bias**. The bias is that I am moderately bearish on EURUSD (weak bearish) ECB is in quantitative easing mode whilst the Fed had done a hawkish interest rate cut. **There will be a week when I do not have a fundamental/sentiment bias due to my limited knowledge on the matter but when I do, I put this bias on top of anything else, above Technical Analysis. Having said that though, I rely heavily on Technical Analysis to tell me where and when to trade. In terms of Technical Analysis, the EURUSD is still in bearish mode (tho weakening). I look at the Daily Chart, even though our eyes would scream "EURUSD has gone bearish too long now". That is classical retail trader way of thinking. Picking tops and bottoms, claiming Euro is too cheap etc. I disagree with this completely. I am NOT saying the price would continue moving another 200-300 pips downwards (even though that is what I am anticipating because I am, after all, bearish bias EURUSD) but the average leg/wave for EURUSD (Daily Chart) before it retraces more than 38% of the impulsive wave, is 589 pips. Current wave/leg barely touches the average. So, anyway.. quick hindsight-reading-the-left-side-of-the-chart analysis to make me sound stupidly smart: the EURUSD had been trading in the range since 5th September. It is true on the 12th and the 13th this pair broke above the trading range but that was due to the institutional liquidity run (conveniently coincided with the ECB Rate Decision). The pair traded back inside within the range until NY closes on Friday. Now, time to read the right side of the chart instead. The nearest liquidity that I have identified is in between 1.10250 and 1.10400. Small retracement usually has stacks of orders that institutions love to consume. If price enters this zone I will be on Bearish standby mode waiting for a short signal. If the level I explained above would be broken through then I will be looking at the next level which is between 1.10750-1.0900. It would break the Friday High and that usually activates my bearish mode. Risk Events on Monday for the EU are the Flash Services PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI and German Flash Services PMI. Nothing for the U.S
Short
by sufiansaid
Trading Plan Update for GBPJPY The BeastReferring to the this post 2 days ago : The daily range for yesterday was 100 pips roughly whilst the 20-day ADR was 130. I would consider it a hit. Today's 20-day ADR is 132 pips and I expect this will be reached today and hopefully to the downside. I am still bullish the Sterling and I am looking at liquidity pool at 134.600-134.500 and 134.00 price levels. There was a valid bullish signal on Tuesday but I missed that signal. That signal formed an accumulation zone which creates another "liquidity plot" around 134.500-134.00. If price enters in one of these price zones, that will activate my bullish mode and will look for bullish activation. There is a risk event for UK and Japan today but either I don't expect anything significant.
Long
by sufiansaid
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : EURAUD 19 September 2019Yesterday's trading range was 63 pips whilst the 20-day ADR was 114 pips. I am expecting a price expansion today and I am hoping the high of the week will be formed for this pair and goes on a downward move towards the weekly downside projection (the 20-week weekly range is 230 pips). I am looking at the liquidity pool around 1.616 -1.620 and when price enters and/or breaks through it, then it will activate my bearish mode and will wait for a bearish technical signal to go short EURAUD. Moreover, price closing at these area coincides breaking the Tue-Wed high price (Phase ONe activation or "P1"). You can find the linked post to understand this concept There is a risk event for Australia today, the Job Number in less than an hour of this writing
Short
by sufiansaid
Reading the right side of the chart : CADCHF 18 Sept 2019Yesterday the daily range was 32 pips whilst the 20-day ADR was 52 pips. Price missed the daily range hence I expect a decent price expansion of above today's 20-day ADR of 48 pips or at least hitting the exact range projection. I am bullish bias for CADCHF hence I am looking at the liquidity pool at 0.74800-0.74880 and/or 0.74700-0.74600. If price enters into this price zone, then it is a bullish activation for me and I would proceed to look for a bullish trigger to long this pair. There is a CPI number for Canada today at 8.30 pm (Singapore/Malaysia time). I have looked at the last 3 data release of CPI. My concern of risk event is generally only the inevitable stop hunt that occurs during this time hence I only look at the reaction candle (the 30-minute candle at the time of the release of the economic number). On June 19th, 2019, when the number came out better than expected with +0.3% deviation (0.4% vs 0.1%), there was a 25 pip bullish spike (30 min candle) followed by retracement taking out the 25-26 pips bullish spike and price movement was flat until NY close. The price moved up again and closed above the high of that 30-min candle at NY close. The price went into an intraday bearish move the following day. The underlying trend at that time was Bearish. On July 17th, 2019, the number came out better than expected with a +0.1% deviation (-0.2% vs -0.3%), there was a 17 pip run. That 30-min candle closed as a spinning top type candle and price moved down and closed below the close price of this 30-min candle at NY close. The price went into a bearish move the following day. The underlying technical narrative at that time was Bearish as there was a Double top at a significant level. On August 21st, 2019, the number came out better than expected with a +0.4% deviation (0.5% vs 0.1%), there was a 24 pip bullish spike. That candle closed as a solid bullish candle and price moved slightly flat after NY close. The price went moderately bullish the following day. The underlying technical trend at that time was Bearish (which the price went into a bearish intraday trend 2 days after the CPI numbers released) Based on these small sample data (but rest assured I have checked larger sample size but for the sake of simplicity and avoiding this post to be a very dragging and long post, I just present the last 3 CPI numbers that came out), very often the candle spike reacts according to the headline numbers but the price action afterward were somewhat mixed and "random". The candle spike did show there was a stop hunt i.e June 19th, after the bullish spike, the price went down at the next several candles and July 17th, there were two-sided spike even though it was only 17 pips but the candle closed as spinning top which suggested there was an "accumulation" in that 30 minute period. I will trade around this risk event and looking for a stop-hunt at the levels I have determined as liquidity pool so I can Long CADCHF. The forecast is -0.2%, huge decrease from previous 0.5% (-0.7% deviation). If the actual number is somewhat better than -0.2% with huge deviation, then I expect a 20-25 pip bullish spike. I will enter the trade after the 8pm candle close (enter a trade at 9 pm Singapore time) BUT only if the price at the time was already tapped into the liquidity pool. IF not, then I will wait until the next day and see if the market can give me new and fresh structures to work on. If the number came out worse than expected, then I expect 20-25 pips bearish spike. As I mentioned, the aftermath of this event seems to be random and that suggests me I can proceed to trade according to my technical bias. The reactionary bearish spike, at which I hope will be the catalyst of liquidity run towards the levels I have determined so I can look for bullish triggers to long CADCHF
Long
by sufiansaid
Reading the right side of the BEAST : GBPJPY 17 Sept 2019Yesterday the daily range was 122 pips whilst the 20-day ADR was 142 pips. There was a miss in daily range even though 20 pips for this beast could be considered a hit. (Discretionary analysis red flag!), I am NOT anticipating a price expansion today (price exceeding the daily ADR range). Having said though, I am looking at the liquidity pool around 134.00 - 134.20 and 133.30 and 133.50. If price enters in the zone, that is a bullish activation and I will wait for a bullish trigger before I could enter Long the beast. There are no risk events for the U.K and Japan
Long
by sufiansaid
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : EURUSD 17 Sept 2019Yesterday the price went on a 90 pips price expansion. I anticipated a 65-75 pips yesterday (Read it here : ) and this was not good for me personally. Yes, I was Bearish bias for EURUSD but I would only short the pair if the price taps into the liquidity pool that I have pre-determined. Well, new day, let's move on. As I already mentioned above, yesterday the price expanded more than the 20-Day ADR projection hence I am anticipating a wee bit amount of price correction or accumulation today. What that means is, which I also hope for, price to tap into the liquidity pool that I have identified based on yesterday's price action. By the way, the price area that I marked with a yellow box, is a trading concept that I haven't introduced but I am sure every price action trader know what that is. Liquidity pool can also be identified via areas where you see a decent amount of price accumulation/small correction. The 20-day ADR for today is 60 pips. Since yesterday had a price expansion day, I would not be surprised if the daily range today is between 35-45 pips, few pips short of 20-day ADR, which means I potentially have to wait until Wednesday to get any possibility the price would tap into the liquidity pools that I have identified. If price gets into one of these pools, that is a bearish activation for me and I will wait for a bearish trigger signal to short the EURUSD. No Risk Events today for the U.S and the Euro
Short
by sufiansaid
Reading the right side of the chart : GBPCHF 17 Sept 2019Yesterday the daily range was 63 pips whilst the 20-day ADR was 91 pips. There was a miss in daily range hence I am anticipating a price expansion today, and hopefully to the downside tapping into the liquidity pool. I am looking at the liquidity pool around 1.12270-1.12300 and once price enters in the zone, that is a bullish activation and I will wait for a bullish trigger to long GBPCHF. If the price goes lower, all I could do is wait and see if the price reacts at the liquidity pool at 1.12180 - 1.1220. There are no risk events for the U.K and Switzerland
Long
by sufiansaid