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Reading the Right Side of the Chart : USDJPY 16 September 2019On Friday the daily range was 37 pips whilst the 20-day ADR was 65 pips. That's almost 50% short of hitting the daily range. When price misses the daily range projection, the following day or next few days, price will compensate that. Price expansion should happen and if it happens today, then I hope a 70 pips run today. The 20-day average daily range (20-day ADR) for today is 64 pips. I am anticipating 80 - 100 pips run between today until Tuesday's London open at 3 pm (Singapore/Malaysia time). I was looking the price to tap at 107.500 - 107.600 price levels and I would be looking for bullish triggers to LONG USDJPY. Price has tapped the price levels and now I just have to wait for a bullish trigger (which I hint at a "line" I mark on the chart) No Risk Events today for the U.S and Bank Holiday in Japan.
Long
by sufiansaid
Spitting Thoughts : BRENT/WTI, Trading the Drone Attack?....I had a friend who said to me as soon as I said I have a Long position on an airline stock CFD, would I short sell that stock CFD if, god forbid, something bad happens to that airline? It made me sick to think about it. If there were accidents happened and there were ways that me as a currency/stock CFD trader, able to take advantage of it i.e short or long the involved currency or stock while someone probably hurt or died from that accident, would I still do it? I do not know as of now if there were human casualties from this drone attack to Saudi oilfields (I pray that no one was killed) but as soon as I read the news yesterday, I knew the oil price would shoot up. I could not help myself as a trader, almost immediately, thought of this: buying the dips. The Brent closed at $ 60.43 and price as of now is $ 67.xx. I appreciate institutional traders do manipulate market prices for Brent and WTI. What makes the energy market little bit more sensitive is it like pegged with geopolitics. The market reacts this way because potentially, this oil field destructions would cost Saudi 50% of their daily production. The supply will be definitely affected. Demand Enough fundamental analysis, what does the technicals tells us? There is nothing in my end. Price shoots up and the spike, at the moment has stopped. I am not saying I will trade this as I do not feel good about it, but if someone asked me if I was a human being with no heart and still want to trade the Brent based on this, what would I do moving forward? Buy the dips. I will look at "key" old resistance levels and see If I could find bullish triggers around that price levels at $ 66.00 - $ 66.50. I expect the price will continue to go up as long as the narrative remains that Saudi Arabia production will be affected, even the company that runs the oilfield claims that they will get it running in no time, market confidence will remain bearish on the company (consequently bullish for the Brent and WTI). Retail traders who don't care much about fundamental analysis, is already lining up to short this instrument hence that is just FOOD for institutional traders who looks at liquidity above anything else right now. But please, don't trade this.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by sufiansaid
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : XAUUSD 16 September 2019On Friday the daily range was 226 pips whilst the 20-day ADR was 224 pips. Allow me for little hindsight analysis here (the worst kind I know) : The 20-Day ADR was hit on Friday and the root of that intraday bearish move was on Wednesday when price close above Monday and Tuesday-Wednesday high and tested the Tuesday-Wed Low. The 20-day average daily range (20-day ADR) for today is 226 pips. I am anticipating a 300 pips run between today until Tuesday's London open at 3 pm (Singapore/Malaysia time). I am looking at the liquidity pool around 1510.00 - 1515.00 prices level. If price closes inside or above it between now until Tuesday London open, I will be looking to short XAUUSD .
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by sufiansaid
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : EURUSD 16 Sep 2019On Friday the daily range was 53 pips whilst the 20-day ADR was 57 pips. I would consider it as a hit and pretty surprising considering the range on Thursday was 159 pips but I appreciate that it probably be skewed by the fact that it was ECB Rate Decision day, hunting day for the institutional traders looking for liquidity. The 20-day average daily range (20-day ADR) for today is 57 pips. I am anticipating a 65-75 pips run between today until Tuesday's London open at 3 pm (Singapore/Malaysia time). I am looking at the liquidity pool around 1.11100 - 1.11200 prices level(equal-ish high with Friday's high and 27th and 28th August 2019's high) and a quick stop hunt at those levels which coincided with Weekly High. If price closes inside or above it, I will be looking to short EURUSD. No Risk Events Today.
Short
by sufiansaid
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : GBPUSD 13 September 2019At the beginning of the week, price closed above previous Friday's high and that Monday high became a strong resistance level for this pair until today. I was bearish bias even until now. Why am I bearish bias even though the P1 had been activated thanks to the institutional traders failed to be very subtle with their stop hunts. I have mentioned in my other posts that they use risk events like its hunting season. Brokers widened their stops and oceans and oceans of orders from market participants (from retail to smaller fish commercials participants) Whilst it is now bullish mode from the P1 activation (price close below Tue-Wed low), my discretion would ignore this activation and will wait for a P1 activation after price close at 1.23750-1.23900 and then I will wait for the bearish trigger. I doubt it will hit the 20-week downside projection by NY close today but do take note that since Monday, this pair failed to reach it's basic 20-day average daily range. If the price keep failing to reach the minimum average daily range then it "owes" the market and indeed plenty of range needs to be paid and that usually means a very volatile pay up follows. (Please check my post regarding daily range and how it is a useful analysis :
Short
by sufiansaid
1
Market Range - Anticipating Price ExpansionI have mentioned several times in my post that when a pair didn't reach its minimum range based on the 20-day average daily range, the market will compensate that "pips shortages" in the following day, in two or three days or the following week. These small ranges are more common in a flat market, where it is in an accumulation phase. "Ranging market begets trends" was the common belief back when I first started trading. I do not think it's necessarily true BUT I do believe ranging market or market in an accumulation phase, whatever you want to call it, will beget price expansion and more often than not, when the price do expand, it will pay back all the pips shortages few days/weeks earlier. How can you benefit/what are the actionable you can do from this repetitive yet tend to be overlooked market behaviour? Here are the three things I tend to use this information into my advantage : 1) Liquidity Pool will be there in a day where the range is so small because price is in accumulation phase 2) You can start managing your trades as small ranges particularly after a price expansion, means a retracement or reversal will happen. This gives us opportunities to look for either continuation trades or to move your stops to protect your profits 3) If you have a trading signal during the accumulation phase, you can expand your profit target more than usual as the smaller the ranges in the previous day(s) the bigger the price expansion would be. The smaller the ranges and the longer is the period of accumulation, the bigger the liquidity pool going to be hence the more delicious the price expansion going to be
Education
by sufiansaid
7
Looking at the Right Side of the Chart : EURGBP 13 SeptemberThanks to liquidity run before the ECB rate decision towards .88900 - .89000, it activated P1 (Price broke and close below Tuesday-Wednesday low) and I am intraday bullish bias for EURGBP. There are two potential targets for my bullish intentions for this pair which are the 20-week average range (upside projection) and the Boomerang target. If you do not know what is Boomerang target, please find the linked post below or click here :
Long
by sufiansaid
1
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : Accumulation in AUDUSDI am still stuck in this trade (read it here : Yesterday and just today's Sydney session, I saw stop a hunt towards at .68850 - .68750. You could just see the long wick candles. These two "tests" towards that price level creates two equal-ish highs hence I will determine just above it as a valid liquidity pool. My stoploss is in that as well. There is equal-ish lows at 0.68500, so I determined underneath is as a liquidity pool as well. I have marked Tue-Wed high and low (adjusted to the nearest 00s and 50s) so I will see where price would tap into and then I will react accordingly. Monday High have held the bullish intentions so far. It would be cool if price breaks the Tue-Wed high and even close above the Monthly high (yes it will stop me out, that besides the point
Short
by sufiansaid
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : USDCHF Manipulation ZoneApabila nampak level yang terlalu jelas, maka besar kemungkinan tempat itu akan menjadi zon yang diperhatikan dan apabila zon itu menjadi tempat perhatian maka banyak "orders" akan duduk disana. When you see obvious levels, you can bet EVERYONE will see it. When everyone sees it, then there will be A LOT of interest at those zones. When there are a lot of interest, begets liquidity for the market to latch onto. Price had been trading above Monday's high and currently testing the weekly high. Another zone that big players looking at (too simplistic you might argue but think about it, retail traders and other participants look at the obvious and the ones that make sense to them. Picking a weekly high seems arbitrary I agree but it is what is. I am currently bearish bias "standby mode" at the moment but I would feel better and comfortable if the price trades higher into one of the two levels I marked on the chart. Please be wary trading this pair though as it is somewhat correlated with EURUSD and this pair (EURUSD) super duper sensitive with the major risk event tomorrow : ECB Rate Decision. Be careful out there guys.
Short
by sufiansaid
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : CHFJPY Sept 10thPrice still trading inside last week's range / Friday's range. So far, it has been an "inside day" week as the price didn't even close above Friday's high or low. I have identified several price zones that (based on my personal believe where recent turning points and/or zones that have equal highs or lows have clusters of retail orders) I believe institutional traders (banks, hedge funds, LARGE prop firms) are looking to exploit to get enough liquidity to eventually get their entire, if not some, of the positions they intended to do for the week or month. I have marked Monday's high and low to simplify my process. When/if price close above the Monday high, and preferably higher tapping in the liquidity pool above it, I will wait for a bearish trigger to get into the trade. The arrow I put int the chart is just a rough estimation where one of my several take profit levels would be. Vice versa for the bullish signal. To better understand my concept in navigating the market for intraday moves, please read the post linked below
by sufiansaid
Splitting Thoughts: Anatomy of a Stop Hunt in Accumulation PhaseCall me a conspiracy theorist all you want but the fact is price look for liquidity. Liquidity exists in price zones that have a lot of participation. Obvious levels and obvious patterns are liquidity pool haven. No, I do not have a "solution" or steps to avoid this phenomenon. I have my own personal ways to navigate it. Is it the best? It is the best for me personally for sure, it could be the worse for you. Refer to the links below how I navigate the market in a very simplified way
Education
by sufiansaid
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : BRENTPrice closed above the Monday high/Weekly high and there was a slight bearish reaction. I am biased on the bearish side because the P3 activation. I, however looking for the price to make another push and test yesterday's high and if it could reach the last month's high (green line) and take out the liquidity pool sitting above yesterday's high and the monthly high. I am anticipating a quick stop hunt at yesterday's low and maybe even towards Monday's low, as long as it doesn't close beyond that. If price closes below Monday's low, then I will re-assess my bias and analysis.
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by sufiansaid
Read the Right Side of the Chart : XAUUSD Sept 10thThis pair has certainly moved to the downside followed by the bank's price manipulation around 1555.225-1555.400 You can read the post about where the current wave originated (the setup that I missed. Yes writing this isn't easy for me : Price closed below last week's and Friday's low. Monday was pretty quiet and low volume trading day as this pair didn't reach the 20-day average daily range, which I believe it will eventually be "paid" the following days which it did during Sydney session today. Price also trading inside the liquidity pool that I have determined but there is also price zones that I have determined below it and I would love it if price reach in that zone. I would be an interested buyer at those prices, but of course, after there is a bullish trigger. Depending how volatile this pair going to be this week, if this pair goes off to the upside with momentum, price entering the liquidity pool at 1520-1535, I will be looking for a bearish signal and would seriously consider it as a continuation of the bearish wave You can read the linked posts below to understand the context of this post and also to understand my concept in navigating the market
OANDA:XAUUSD
by sufiansaid
AFTER the fact trade : GBPCHF 8 Sept 2019Refering to this trade (also linked below the post) I exited the trade when the GDP number came out. The probability was against me when that number came out so I cut my loss immediately. I risked 0.8% for this trade and ended losing approx 0.4%. The takeaways that I would like my readers to get from this post are as follows : 1) Trading isn't about being right, it is about managing risk when you are wrong 2) Don't over-leverage 3) Apply discretion around a very well thought out trading plan/strategy (i.e the GDP number came out and I did not see the value to stay in the trade as the probability was severely against me) 4) It is okay to take a loss 5) Be wary of risk-events even if you don't include fundamental analysis in your trading methodolgies
Short
by sufiansaid
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : #EURAUDPrice broke and closed below Friday high. When that happens, that would trigger my bias to Long the pair. It still needs a trigger though. One of the triggers for me is for the price to go lower and find more stops. If the buy stops at 1.61200-1.61500 aren't used by the banks to manipulate the price to go lower towards 1.61300 (or in plain English - If the price goes up from and continues going up) then I will do nothing. Please read my post regarding the Friday-Monday relationship concept to make navigating the market simpler and more efficiently. Linked below
by sufiansaid
USD short against Singapore dollar As we have posted earlier, the pattern Sperandeo worked well on USD SGD currency pier. Also now is very important moment which can help fo USD trading with other currencies also, take a look on MA233 (red). On 4 hrs chart price has stopped at this moving average and crossing of MA233 as a support will be the signal for another 70-100 pips rally. But be careful L2 trend line, which is the 3 target of our trading during this week. This you can focus more on technical analysis as Non-farm employment change is already released - 130k (159k previous ).
Short
by AmiranAzaladze
Reading the Right Side of The Chart : Asian Session AUDNZD It's Monday, it's still in Asian Session. Just wait. I am not one to predict/choose a direction out of thin air. Having said that though, I would love it if price close above those delicious liquidity pool haven 1.0700-1.0720. If the price reaches there, I would set my intraday bias into Bearish and will short this pair once a bearish technical signal been triggered. Please read my post (linked below) about Friday/Monday relationship as a concept to navigate the market more simply and efficiently.
by sufiansaid
Reading The Right Side of The Chart : EURUSDJust imagine every turning point of a trend or a continuation of a trend, a fractal if you like, lies underneath or above it clusters of stop losses that the institutional traders look for to get liquidity. It sounds that it's evil, but whether we hate it or despise it, that is how the market works: you want to buy, you need someone willing to sell and vice versa. Putting buy stops and sell stops (in a form of stoploss or pending order) is another way of saying "I am willing to sell my position here". On Mondays, particularly before the London open, the Sydney/Asian bank traders would seek liquidity in order to get their orders filled. Since market volume generally very thin, hence stop hunting reign supreme at this time so they could get the liquidity needed to get their orders in. Actionable : Using my Friday/Monday relationship concept (I call it Phase 2, don't ask why), I would wait if the price breaks and close Friday low (the deeper the better, preferably at 1.1000 - 1.0900) and then I will look for a bullish signal. And Vice versa.
by sufiansaid
Trapping Breakout and Retracement TradersThis is by no means to be anti-breakout/anti-retracement. I find these entry methods as a valid entry method. As valid as it is, the triggers for such entry method are mostly obvious hence easily to be taken advantage of by the institutional traders. For breakout traders, how these banks would trap is the normal fake breakouts. We all know this as it is a guarantee that it is part of a retail trader, to be the receiving end of this stop hunt. Even if the breakout turns out to be the start of a trend, the institution would tap into the breakout traders stop-loss first (if there is not enough liquidity) before the move continues away from the breakout level. For retracement traders (who prefers the price to retrace first upon the breakout before entry) are not safe with this stop hunt as well. Whatever triggers it was, the stop loss for this traders tends to reside the recent highs or lows of the underlying move. In this example, let's assume the trigger was a bearish engulfing candle. The stop loss would normally be a few pips above the high of the candle. This is just my personal preference with all due respect for those who trades breakouts and retracements (and I am sure some of you made tons of profits trading this way, I just can't make it work and I never able to be comfortable with it, for these reasons I tend to fade breakouts and avoid "retracement" and "continuation" trade triggers respectively. Read my other posts on that has titles like "Navigating the Market" and other educational posts which I share how I navigate the market to eliminate the noise and finding the optimal time to trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by sufiansaid
Stop Hunts = Necessary Evil Every stops being taken out is to service one of the purpose = A) to push the price further in the institution trader's intention of price manipulation towards their ultimate intention i.e their ultimate intention is to buy at a low price say 1.0000, so they take out some stops at 1.0500 to provide liquidity for the short term move towards the cheaper price at 1.000. In this case, a sell stop at 1.0500 would have been consumed so the price could go further down. B) to get enough orders for them to consume so they will avoid or limit slippage when they execute their market order and/or their buy/sell stops gets filled. i.e They manipulate the price towards 1.000 and take out all the sell stops so they can buy it (sometimes the buy stops AND its stop losses. A stoploss for a buy stop is a sell stop and vice versa) For SGDJPY, if an institutional trader in Singapore or Japan wants to Short SGDJPY with a huge order, they need to manipulate the price to get more liquidity. If i was a reversal support/resistance trader and I already shorted this pair, I would definitely put my stoploss at the area I illustrated in the skyblue line at 77.35 to 77.50. My stoploss is FOOD for the bank traders. The rule of thumb is simple : The more obvious the S/R line is, the more likely it is becoming a manipulation zone/stophunt zone. So, if price breaks above Friday High and close above it, I would be looking a bearish signal. The higher it goes, the better . If the bank trader wants to go Long and there is not enough liquidity (it's a Monday, of course, it is more likely not enough liquidity), a stop hunt is basic modus operandi to make sure your Long order would get spilled without slippage/limited slippage (also they could split their order which on the chart would cause a lot "re-tests of support" and ugly whipsaws (accumulation). If the price breaks and close below Friday low (preferably going at 76.80-76.60 (the lower the better), then I will be looking for a bullish signal there Please read related post below.
Education
by sufiansaid
Trade the Other Side of RetailSpotting where the buy stops and sell stops (which the institutional traders would look for and eventually consume it) is not that difficult. All you need is to think "when I was a newbie trader, where would I put my stops based on xyz method" The most common stop losses that is easy to spot are ones for reversal traders (using reversal candlestick pattern such as the bearish engulfing candle for a short signal) and retracement traders (and MA crossover traders) You can refer to the chart what I am talking about. Once you determine the potential stops, then that becomes your own discovered liquidity pool. It will come very handy for your own entry points, bias setting or simply knowing which levels to avoid to put your stops. Remember, institutional traders have BIG positions to make and with big positions you need liquidity so there will be no slippage when they make their market order (i.e Bank Trader in Canada wants to buy 500 million units AUD at 0.90600 but not enough supply/sellers at that price, so to avoid being filled at much more expensive price (slippage), then he wait and/or manipulate the price where there are enough sellers for him to buy the AUD that is at a better price than 0.90600. Liquidity Pool is the area where the Bank Trader in Canada would look to buy the AUD and where that liquidity pool would be? Where there are a lot of stops. 0.89800 resides a lot of stops that would be enough for the 500 million order to be filled without slippage (This is just an oversimplification, sometimes Banks would split their orders) Using my own personal market navigational method, I draw Friday High and Low, and see where the price would close above/below. If price breaks above Friday low, I would see if it could breaks above the blue line where the bank would take out all the stops around 0.90400-0.90800 (the higher the better) there and then perhaps push the price down after that. If price breaks below Friday low, I would see if it could break the stops around 0.89800-0.89600 (the deeper the better) and then I would be looking for a bullish trigger to long AUDCAD
by sufiansaid
Navigating The Market : Monday with Tue/Wed RelationshipThis write up is an extension to this post : The concept is when the price on Tuesday or Wednesday broken and close above the Monday high, generally that potentially could be the "anchor" /high of the week hence the intraday trend of that week will rooted from this. Vice versa. Of course, this doesn't happen 100% of the time but it happens repetitively. Usually, this block (Tuesday-Wednesday) is, very often, the "final stage"/"final push" from the institutions with their price-fixing/stop hunts/liquidity hunt. It tends to extend until Thursday or Friday but generally, those block (Thursday-Friday) tend to be a profit-taking day for the banks
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by sufiansaid
1