SINGAPORE COVID-19 Wave 3 Projection Update IXLike a bad zombie movie, the unexpected happened. The start of July appeared as if all was going well, and then suddenly, a new cluster was discovered and the depth and width of this cluster spread was far deeper and wider than anticipated. The model did not pick up this incoming, and for the first time it failed to. This has significance as it is an anomalous event, a game changer if you will, and in such circumstances, it tells a lot.
The green arrows depict the speed of the spread, as well as the discovery by detection. Yes, we are getting better at detection, but only after knowing that there is a cluster. The green arrows point steeper upwards in the past two weeks and the weekly chart signals that this would take more weeks than previously, as well as there would be more affected than previously.
The initial spike has not yet decelerated, but should be tapering off in the weeks to come, thereafter, we may or may not see smaller spikes with smaller clusters surfacing.
Stricter measure have just been put in place and it would take months for this one to pan out, taking us to end August.
Nonetheless, Singapore still remains very lucky by any comparison to the rest of the world. When luck runs out, we would not know, but this is a warning yet again that any complacency would be met with a viral comeback response.
HODL would be appropriate for this circumstance... stay well and safe!
Singapore
SINGAPORE UK INDONESIA COVID-19 UpdateSingapore COVID-19 is on a downtrend, albeit a potential small spike due to some infected hostesses may have affected a number of people. Not the most flattering of ways to get a spike. But it is tapering off for now...
UK on the other hand, eases its measures today, but leaves me wondering IF anyone is even watching the charts, or doing any statistical studies. The wave onset projected is on time, and it is on now... starts now, for the next couple of months! Hello ??
Indonesia has gotten from bad to worse to even worse. Projections are underestimating the acceleration as daily cases from 20,000 a week ago now hits 40,000 yesterday. This would take more than a couple of months to slow down, if at all. IT's too little too late for vaccinations now, but that's the best weapon there is in the shed.
Malaysia is modulating the current wave, and current projections point to a slow down in infection spread.
Abaxx Technologies $ABXX /$ABXXF TANotes state my thoughts on the matter. I could see price being supported by the LR mean if a roll over does occur.
There is SPECULATION that Abaxx may be awarded its clearing house license over the coming week. This may provide the catalyst to push Abaxx out of its DTL. I am holding long shares and looking to see some tight price action in the +3SD channel to set up a push up.
Abaxx is a pre-rev company and trades on the NEO exchange in Canada. It trades OTC on the QX by the ticker $ABXXF. You can expect spreads of up to 0.05. I recommend Limit Buys.
As always do your own due diligence before buying a security, especially a pre-rev one. And follow your own trading rules.
Cheers,
Luke
DBS also has downside riskDBS, the biggest component of the STI, appears to have great downside risk.
Breaking below support of 29.60, after a lower high, means a lower low is put in place.
The weekly chart already had a Bearish Engulfing last week, and this week (left with 1.25 days) closing down below 29.60 to end the week would be another toppish candlestick pattern called the Three Outside Down pattern. Bad for tops.
MACDs and RPMs look like shite... heads up.
Oh, btw... may be a couple of weeks for this to pan out IF it really breaks down.
Singapore STI at risk...At risk of falling...
support is at 3140
Daily MACD and RPMs do not look good.
Immediate downside target is 3020.
SINGAPORE COVID-19 Wave 3 Projection Update VIIFinally! The MACD histograms are heading further down, suggesting that we are moving into the clear and probably have control over the current wave. The week is "over" and weekly chart documents a retrograde. Looks like we are coming out of this on June 13th!
COVID-19 tracking SG and her neighbours (MY, ID and TH)Looking at the weekly charts...
1. All, except ID, are increasing in Wave 3, with differing levels of acceleration.
2. ID may be having an uptick...
3. SG's momentum is still strong for another two weeks at least.
4. Both My and TH have strong momentum to further increase. MY's situation is bad enough with TH's situation being worse.
Overall, the three neighbours have at least another 2-4 weeks of the wave to ride out; of which the northern two probable take months more...
PS. Previously described, the MACD and MACD Histograms are very useful in projecting the virus infection waves. Used here for personal monitoring and analysis. What this simple tool identified does is to allow an advantage to be ahead of the curve instead of being behind it chasing the virus as it silently sweeps across the population.
SINGAPORE COVID-19 WAve 3 Projection Update VIAs projected, and not optimistic and overconfident about the downward momentum, the MACD Histograms are again increasing, and about to break above zero. This leads into the insight and foresight that the week to come should see more detected cases, and also more clusters probably.
We need to understand that virus infections work in waves, and this method allows a reliable tracking based on data analytics, simply on the MACD histograms.
PS. apologies for the mislabeling of colours of the arrows in the last update. Rectified.
Genting Sing G13 [1-3 weeks view}This is an analysis for a client.
Technical indicators showing room for further bullish momentum.
Please do your own due diligence.
This is for analysis purposes only.
Losses can happen so please understand your risks and investment objectives first.
SINGAPORE COVID-19 Wave 3 Projection Update VAn update to just say that the numbers are really looking really great now, with the MACD histograms falling and going below zero, not only for the Daily, but also for Weekly chart (not shown here).
Now, to wait and see the next week or so, if it flattens or starts increasing again...
Having said that, our neighbour, Malaysia, is undergoing a huge resurgent wave. And I just saw a reaport that over 8,000 students have been diagnosed. This is terrible for the country, and I fear that IF they do not manage to control it well enough, the future holds that the next wave would be from our immediate neighbours.
I do wish them well soonest.
S51 SGX BUY/LONG NOW READY 0.175 to 0.655 by Early-Mid 2022TICKER CODE: S51
Company Name: SEMBCORP MARINE
Industry: Singapore Stocks Producer Manufacturing Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery
Position Proposed: BUY
Entry: NOW READY (0.175-0.190)
1st Partial Take Profit: 0. 465(August-October 2021)
2nd Partial Take Profit: 0.655(Early-Mid 2022)
Note that timeline buffered, I would expect Full Take Profit by Early 2022
Stop Loss: 0.160
Technical Analysis
1. Large Inverted Head & Shoulders (Forming)
2. Fibonacci Retracement at 0.786 ( Silver Zone)
3. Flag Pattern (Nearly Completed)
4. 1st Take Profit will be at Fibonacci Expansion Safe Take Profit and Flagpole Length
SINGAPORE COVIS-19 Wave 3 Projection Update IVWhile the weekly chart still show some momentum, the daily chart has plateaued as expected (from update III) and the MACD histograms have started to decrease. This means that as we grapple with the current situation, with a pseudo lockdown, the effects are observable as we catch up with the curve. This downtrend needs to continue consistently for the next two weeks. Any flare up would mean we missed a part of the next infection generation and are actually in the eye of the storm instead of on the way out of the storm.
Let us see...
EUR/SGD:TECHNICAL AND FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS - SHORT 🔔Singapore Industrial Production for April increase by 1.0% monthly and 2.1% annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 0.5% and 3.4%. Forex traders can compare this to Singapore Industrial Production for March, which decreased 1.7% monthly and increased 7.6% annualized.
The Final German GDP for the first quarter is predicted to decrease by 1.7% quarterly and 3.3% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the German GDP for the fourth quarter, which increased 0.3% quarterly, and which decreased 3.3% annualized. The German IFO Business Climate Index for May is predicted at 98.2. Forex traders can compare this to the German IFO Business Climate Index for April, reported at 96.8. The German IFO Current Assessment Index for May is predicted at 95.5. Forex traders can compare this to the German IFO Current Assessment Index for April, reported at 94.1. The German IFO Expectations Index for May is predicted at 101.4. Forex traders can compare this to the German IFO Expectations Index for April, reported at 99.5.
The forecast for the EUR/SGD turned bearish after stalling at resistance.
Singtel Z74 SGX BUY/LONG 2.30 to 2.86 by September 2021TICKER CODE: Z74
Company Name: Singapore Telecommunications Limited
Industry: Telecom Services| Communication Services | Singapore
Position Proposed: BUY
Technical Analysis
1. Large Inverted Head & Shoulders (Forming)
2. Pennant Pattern (Broke out and Retraced)
3. Take Profit will be at Key structure level and 80% of Head & Shoulders Price Rane
Entry: NOW READY (2.30-2. 50 )
1st Partial Take Profit: 2.86(August-September 2021)
Note that timeline buffered, I would expect Full Take Profit by Early 2022
2nd Partial Take Profit Analysis will be updated when we are close to our 1st Take Profit Area
SG: STI gonna snook manyBullish case for the STI
1. Technicals are looking bullish
2. Quick recovery after failing the 55EMA
3. Waiting to break out of trend line resistance
Bearish case for the STI
1. IF it breaks down the support of the last low, it is a goner.
and somehow, IF I had to make a call, against obvious odds, I see that in higher and unexpected probability of a down draft.
Let's see by the end of the week... heads up anyways!
MEDTECS SGX BUY/LONG 1.15 to 2.65 by end 2021TICKER CODE: 546
Company Name: Medtecs International Corporation Limited
Industry: Medical Instruments & Supplies | Singapore
Technical Analysis
1. Large Pennant Pattern Broke out and retested already
2. Fibonacci Retracement at 0.618
3. Fibonacci Expansion Safe Take Profit Level 1 (Grey Zone) Also the length of Flagpole
Entry: Already Active (0.90-1.15)
1st Partial Take Profit: 2.65 (May consider full exit here)
2nd Take Profit: 3.80 (The market may not reach here as there is not enough historical data to project)
Stop Loss: 0.45
EXPECTED Take Profit in September - December 2021
OV8 BUY/LONG INCOMING! 1.45 to at least 2.30! TICKER CODE: OV8
Company Name: Singapore Airlines Ltd.
Industry: Grocery Stores | Consumer Defensive | Singapore
Technical Analysis
1. Large Pennant / Falling Wedge Pattern Broke out and WAITING for Retracement
2. Fibonacci Retracement at 0.5 ( Silver Zone)
3. Fibonacci Expansion Safe Take Profit Level 1 (Grey Zone) Also the length of Flagpole
Entry: NOT Ready
Entry at: 1.45 - 1.55
1st SAFE Partial Take Profit: 2.30
EXPECTED Take Profit in November 2021 - March 2022
MEDTECS SGX BUY/LONG 1.15 to 2.65 by end 2021TICKER CODE: 546
Company Name: Medtecs International Corporation Limited
Industry: Medical Instruments & Supplies | Singapore
Technical Analysis
1. Large Pennant Pattern Broke out and retested already
2. Fibonacci Retracement at 0.618
3. Fibonacci Expansion Safe Take Profit Level 1 (Grey Zone) Also the length of Flagpole
Entry: Already Active (0.90-1.15)
1st Partial Take Profit: 2.65 (May consider full exit here)
2nd Take Profit: 3.80 (The market may not reach here as there is not enough historical data to project)
EXPECTED Take Profit in September - December 2021
SINGAPORE COVID-19 Wave 3 Projection Update IIILast week, an update was made and projected that this Wave 3 was to be more significant and previous, as well as longer in duration.
The days passed with events that corroborated with the projection, and in fact, surpassed the projection.
The MACD histograms had crossed sooner than expected and the MACD lines show the momentum of the up trend. What this translating into is that this Wave is growing and becoming larger as the days go by. The previous projection was still underestimating the amplitude of the wave; which now looks larger and longer to contend with. By estimating the the momentum, together with virus infection dynamics and including measures imposed, it may be reasonable to expect at least 6-8 weeks before we see the plateau. This would bring us into July 2021.
Check in again next week... meanwhile, stay safe, seriously.
Keppel Corp BN4 [1-3 weeks view]This is an analysis for a client.
Technical indicators showing room for further bearish momentum
Bounce before chance of a further drop.
Please do your own due diligence.
Losses can happen so please understand your risks and investment objectives first.
STI breaks down below 6 week trading rangeLooking at STI Weekly chart, price was in range for about 6 weeks and had a significant break down.
It will seem that the long term downtrend channel may be as a temporary support and further breakdown back into the downtrend channel will likely resume bearish outlook.
The past movement indicate highly cautious move, sell into exuberant strength seems higher probability than attempt for range trading.
Y92 BUY/LONG INCOMING! 0.620 to potentially 1.100 and higher! TICKER CODE: Y92
Company Name: Thai Beverage PCL
Industry: Alcoholic Beverages/Drinks | Consumer Goods | Singapore
Technical Analysis
1. Large Pennant / Falling Wedge Pattern Broke out and Retraced already
2. Large Head & Shoulders
3. Fibonacci Retracement at 0.618 (Golden Zone)
4. Fibonacci Expansion Safe Take Profit Level 1 (Grey Zone) Also the length of Flagpole
5. Full Take Profit at Fibonacci Expansion 1.618 is also at H&S Take Profit (80% of Head Price Range)
Entry: NOT READY
Entry Price: 0.620
1st SAFE Partial Take Profit: 0.910
2nd Partial Take Profit: 1.100
EXPECTED Take Profit in November 2021 - July 2022
NOTE THAT MY BIAS ON this would be a good long climb in the coming years.
Expecting the market to climb to 1.8++
SINGAPORE COVID-19 Wave 3 progress updateQuick check in the COVID-19 situation for Singapore shows that there is some level of stabilization.
As more cases and clusters surface, this may be the eye of the storm, and the next weeks will show us what might come in June...
Watch for it!
