Singapore COVID-19 Wave 3 UpdateSo... Technical analysis is not the orthodox tool for Pandemic infection monitoring, BUT it appears that IF we can look beyond the box, we can see more, and get ahead of the curve a little more.
This is the SECOND time the Singapore COVID-19 charts are giving us about 6-8 weeks heads up of an imminent spike in COVID-19 cases.
Much could have been done IF we looked closer and took appropriate actions.
Last post on this matter, on 5th March, it was clear and present danger that a 3rd wave spike was to happen in April... and now, we are in the onset of a spike in cases in Singapore.
It should be about another 8 weeks before things we under control...
This is NOT chance, but high probability (though unusual) projection of the dynamics.
You see, the RPM in the middle panel shows that it is not as powerful a run up this time (as previously expected); and the MACD histograms correctly warned of this imminent spike, now indicating that it is probably nearing a peak out.
This predictive model also works for other countries. So it is robust.
Till next time, stay safe and stay healthy!
PS... see related ideas below for the historical tracking
Singapore
OCBC [1-3 week view]This is an analysis for a client.
Price just did a triangle upside breakout with indicators showing room for further bullish upside.
Please do your own due diligence.
Losses can happen so please understand your risks and investment objectives first.
Midterm Bullish on SingtelMidterm bullish on Singtel. Looks like an under and over on weekly. Reclaimed range low and it looks like it wants to tag range high.
Here are the bullish scenarios:
1) Tag and reclaim range high and move higher.
2) Tag range high, reject and range. (Most likely scenario)
There is a bearish scenario where price loses range low again and go lower. So far looks low probability.
STI TARGETS 3406 TO CHALLENGE 10 YEAR RANGEWith all time frames bullish supported by 70% of its major components in a bullish multi time frame uptrends (refer to the STI Matrix), the STI approaches the upper end of its 10 year channel at 3406.
The STI has been broadly in a trading range between 2300 to 3400 since 2011 and a break of the lower range of 2300 was tested in the pandemic drop in feb 20 which hit a low of 2203. We now see a test upwards of 3406 which may occur if the uptrend of the STI continues in the medium term.
PIVOT 3127
Long positions above 3127 for 3406 and 3664
Short positions below 3127 for 3000 and 2637
STI ENDS MARCH 2021 BULLISHThe STI establishes a new uptrend on ALL TIME FRAMES after it closed at 3181 with a significant break of its long term downtrend on the monthly Supertrend resistance of 3108.
Referring to my STI Matrix table, the stocks that are on multiple time frame UPTRENDS include JMHUSD, UOB, DBS, OCBC, VENTURE, SEMBCORP IND, ST ENG and MAPLETREE COM TR. These are the components providing the tailwind to the STI for the past month. The REITS are building a base led by MAPLETREE COM TR and the banks are very bullish. Property counters like CAPITALAND, CITYDEV and UOL are showing strength.
LONG TERM UPTREND SINCE 010321
MEDIUM UPTREND SINCE 071120
SHORT TERM UPTREND SINCE 250221
PIVOT 3115
Long positions above 3115 for 3411 and 3664
Short positions below 3115 for 3037 and 2974
STI BUILDS ON THE BREAKOUT, 3406 NEXTAll short, medium and Long term trend time frames of the STI are pointing up after the breakout of 3108 on the monthly Supertrend line. The STI is now on wave 3 of the daily buy signal issued on 041120 at 2506. The current upside target will be at 3188 that coincides with the supertrend break on the weekly charts on 150519 and 3406 on 050218 respectively.
PIVOT 3076
Long positions above 3076 target 3188 3406
Short positions below 3076 target 3011 2813
CAPITALAND JOINS LIST OF MEGA UPTREND STOCKSThe break of $3.63 from the long signal at $2.74 on 101120 has materialized with a strong close at $3.85 on 260321. The upside target is now 4.60 that was the level that Capitaland broke down on 010828 from its highs of 7.27 in 020407.
STI PROPERTY OUTLOOK : CAPITALAND & CITY DEVT 301120 (quantstrategic.com.sg)
Short term UPTREND since 101120
Medium UPTREND since 161120
Long term uptrend since 230321
PIVOT 3.45
Long positions above 3.45 for 4.60 and 5.75
Short positions below 3.45 for 3.25 and 2.37
UOL GROUP LIMITED (SGX:U14) 22/3/21Study...based upon Volume Price Spread Analysis and Momentum
UOL has shown Breakout.
Close: 7.82
EP: 7.66 - 7.97
SL: 7.20
TP: 8.43 /8.79
Disclaimer: This study does not constitutes Buy/Sell per say. Please consult your financial advisor before making any trading/investing decision
STI BREAKS DOWNTREND SINCE 2018The STI has broken its Long Term downtrend that started on the 1st oct 2018 with a break and close above 3108 to be confirmed when the monthly candlestick closes in another week plus.
3108 was the supertrend pivot resistance on the monthly charts that defined the downtrend for almost 26 months.
PIVOT 3050
Long positions above 3050 to target 3411 3664
Short positions below 3050 to target 3011 2892
Long term UPTREND since 190321
Medium UPTREND since 071120
Short term UPTREND since 041120
SIA BREAKS 5 YEAR DOWNTRENDSingapore Airlines broke the long term downtrend that started in Aug 2015 with a close at $5.70 surpassing our target at $5.46.
PIVOT 5.27
Long positions above 5.27 target 5.75 and 7.05
Short positions below 5.27 target 4.91 and 4.63
Long Term UPTREND since 190321
Medium Term UPTREND since 161120
Short term UPTREND since 051120
STI CLOSES IN ON 3108The STI closed on an intraday high of 3116 on 090321. The break of the monthly pivot point of 3108 will reverse the downtrend of the STI since 011018. The strength of the banks, Jardine, SGX and Wilmar may support this climb in the short term.
PIVOT 2995
Long positions above 2995 target 3108 and 3207
Short positions below 2995 target 3041 2843
Long term DOWNTREND since 011018
Medium term UPTREND since 071120
Short term UPTREND since 250221
SATS $4.55 then $5.85SATS S58 : TARGETS $4.55 (quantstrategic.com.sg)
Refer to my previous post, $4.55 has been hit intraday.
Short term trend is UP
Medium trend is UP since 091120
Long term trend down pending break of $4.55
PIVOT $4.15
Long positions above $4.15 target 4.55 and 5.85
Short positions below $4.15 target 3.65 and 3.55
STI SHORT TERM INDICATORS UP to start March 2021Long signals on 250221 at 2932-2964 reverses the downward pressure since 280121 to continue its test of 3108.
ST uptrend since 250221
MT uptrend since 071120
LT downtrend since 011018
PIVOT 2867
Long positions above 2867 to test 3108 3270
Short positions below 2867 to 2813 2780
Singapore, improving COVID-19 statisticsChart of Singapore’s COVID-19 cases, since October predicted a rise in case numbers, which played out with a small spike in December. Posted in November about this idea.
From February onwards, the risk appears to decelerate and lower.
Slight indication of next smaller spike wave may be appearing... check in again in two weeks to see.
STI BREAK RANGE TARGETS 2780The STI has broken the range on the downside with sell signals on the short term charts on both the 4hr and day charts at 2987-2963 from 260121. The immediate target will be 2780, the pivot point on the weekly charts providing critical support.
Short term trend DOWN since 260121
Medium trend UP with 2780 as support
Long Term trend DOWN since 011018
PIVOT 2967
Short position below 2967 target 2780 and 2716
Long positions above 2967 target 3108 and 3270
STI in trouble... seriously.The Straits Times Index (STI) rallied so hard at the beginning of 2021, only to sputter out, failing to break over 3000 , clocked a Lower High, and today, a Lower Low. The past two weeks have been under a Sell signal too.
It's troubles are just beginning as a series of Gap Downs skipped through a couple of gap support levels, and is now testing to break down below the 55EMA; wait till end of day.
The RPM and MACD indicators are clearly bearish.
Look's like the early January rally will be erased... as downside target is at 2800.
STI SETTLES IN A RANGE 2925-3020The STI settles within a range between 2925 and 3020 with relative strength coming from the banks stocks like DBS, UOB and OCBC together with some interest in SIA and SAT shares providing some support.
The short signals on both the day and 4hr charts are still valid on the 26/28th feb.
PIVOT 2989
Long positions above 2989 to break 3020 and 3108
Short positions below 2989 to test 2906 and 2782
STI SUPPORT AT 2780With short signals on both the 4hr and daily providing a breather just before Chinese New Year in Singapore, profit taking may just set in with support at 2780.
The weekend Supertrend support at 2780 comes into play if 2906 (Tenken line) is broken to the downside as support for the weekly uptrend to remain intact.
Pivot 2780
Long above 2780 with targets 2962 and 2989
Short below 2780 to test 2719 and 2422
STI TARGETS 2782Short term weakness observed in the Short term Daily and 4hr charts with shorts on 260121 at 2963 breaking the Daily supertrend line at 2932 targeting 2782, the supertrend pivot of the weekly charts.
Please refer to the STI Matrix to see which are the components driving the weakness of the STI. The banks have ceased their climb and the property counters and REITS have short term sell signals across the board. Keppel Corp is leading the decline in the shipping related components.
Pivot 2975
Short positions below 2975 to test 2782
Long positions above 2975 to test 3010
COVID-19 Wave 2 trajectory still ongoing... SD, MY, ID and CNFirst up... obvious from November 2020 that Singapore was already heading towards a spike/Wave2.
After so long, appears sthat the inevitable is happening, and projecting forwards, by end Feb or early March, the MACD histogram would be positive.
Note that this has had happened to China, obvious int he MACD histograms since Octoboer 2020, through to December 2020 and has prompted localized lockdowns in the NorthEast of China.
Malaysia and Indonesia unfortunately are not seeing any reprieve... not surprising, given the measures taken, too little too late, if at all. This eventually will pose problems for Singapore.
No change in the trejectory as outlined months ago...
STI watch the range break 2983-3018STI is bullish on both the short and medium charts with targets at 3108 on the monthly supertrend line.
Watch the range for a break between 2983 and 3018.
Pivot 2936
Long positions above 2936 target 3108
A break below 2936 will test 2906 and 2813
SG: SIA ... to continue its fallLooking at the SIA weekly chart, it is obvious that there is a lower high, and a concomitant failure of the 55EMA. 4.15 is the final support, breaking down of this level means more downside.
The MACD, RPM and Volume Divergence are all supportive of the bearish outlook.
Possible to revisit its last low... around 3.50
