USD/SGD Price Action: A Bearish Outlook EmergesYesterday, the USD/SGD currency pair rebounded at a supply zone around 1.34500, creating a bearish candle that has persisted into today. As I write this, the price is currently around 1.34195.
Analyzing the technical landscape, the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals that retail traders remain in long positions, while other market participants have adopted a more neutral stance without clear positioning. This scenario could allow the Singapore Dollar to capitalize on a potential retracement of the US Dollar, potentially enhancing its value.
Looking at historical trends, our forecasting data indicates that over the past decade, this period of the year has frequently seen bearish retracements for the USD against the Singapore Dollar. Given the prevailing market conditions, traders may want to consider positioning themselves for short opportunities.
As the market evolves, it is crucial to monitor price movements and broader economic trends closely to make well-informed trading decisions.
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Singaporedollar
NZD/SGD Tests and Rejects Key Demand Area, Bullish Sentiment.Over the past three days, the NZD/SGD pair has retested a previous demand area and shown a clear rejection, signaling potential buying interest at this level. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report adds weight to this scenario, revealing that retail traders remain predominantly short, while "Smart Money"—institutional investors—are beginning to edge higher in their positioning.
Large speculators have already turned bullish, reflecting a growing confidence in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) relative to the Singapore Dollar (SGD). This shift in sentiment could set the stage for a possible long setup, particularly as seasonal trends suggest further upside potential for NZD/SGD.
From a technical perspective, the rejection of the demand zone, combined with the bullish shift in institutional positioning, points to a potential upward move. Traders will be closely monitoring price action in the coming days for confirmation of a breakout, which could present an opportunity to enter long positions in alignment with the emerging bullish sentiment.
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USDSGD Time to sell this rally.The USDSGD pair has been rebounding non-stop since the September 27 bottom and yesterday broke above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in more than 3 months (since July 04). This confirmed that the correction since July is over but with the 1D RSI above 60.00 and heading towards the overbought barrier (70.00), we expect a rejection there.
In fact, there was a similar fractal that was rejected on March 10 2023, on the correction's 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level a little after the 1D RSI turned overbought. This resulted into a test of the 0.618 Fib of the rebound Leg.
As a result, we are expecting a rejection on the 0.382 Fib or when the 1D RSI gets overbought above 70.00 and our Target is the 0.618 Fib at 1.29150.
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Asian Currencies May Stall as Jackson Hole Looms Investors will be watching a series of key Asian central bank decisions and inflation reports this week, as regional currencies rally to annual highs.
The Bank of Korea is set to announce its rate decision on Thursday, followed by inflation data from Japan and Singapore on Friday.
The U.S. dollar's slide resumed from last week, with markets embracing a risk-on sentiment. The yen climbed past 146 per dollar, marking its strongest level in nearly two weeks. Further selling could open up the 140.450 mark.
However, Bank of America sees the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium as a game-changer, with Fed Chair Powell possibly striking a more hawkish tone, which could strengthen the dollar. This could make the Asian currencies trades interesting considering the risk-on sentiment that has helped push them to multi-month and yearly highs.
The South Korean won has surged to a five-month high, as the central bank is unlikely to cut interest rates this week. The BOK is expected to maintain its policy rate at 3.50%.
The Singapore dollar has also extended its gains, reaching an 18-month high.
USDSGD Buy signal at the bottom of a Channel Down.The USDSGD pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the April 16 2024 High and today almost touched its bottom (Lower Lows trend-line). That is a technical short-term buy opportunity towards its top (Lower Highs trend-line).
The previous Bullish Leg of the pattern registered a +1.31% rise. Our Target is slightly lower than a new potential rise of this magnitude at 1.35000.
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USDSGD Bullish unless this Support breaks.The USDSGD pair is on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) currently but within conflicting Channels. The long-term one is a Channel Up that hasn't yet been invalidated, the medium term one a Channel Down and the shortest term a Channel Up.
As long as Support 1 (1.34225) holds, we will go with the short-term Channel Up and stay bullish, targeting 1.37250, which will be a Lower High on the medium-term Channel Down. If on the other hand, Support 1 breaks, we will take the loss and go short instead, targeting 1.32725 (Support 2).
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USDSGD Still a buy but not for long.The USDSGD pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern (blue) since the February 02 2023 Low but on December 28 2023 it posted a Lower Low, so we have to consider the possibility of an emerging (dotted) Channel Down.
As a result, the trend remains bullish but technically we should be careful and only target the top of Channel Down at 1.37350 (symmetrical Bullish Leg at +4.49%).
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USDSGD Strong bullish signal above the 1D MA200It's been again a long time since we traded the USDSGD pair (October 03 2023, see chart below) but it did manage to give us a low risk sell opportunity:
The price hit today the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in exactly 2 months (since November 17). That is a major pressure level as it is also exactly where Resistance 1 (1.34550) is. The long-term pattern is a Channel Up and technically this is the 3rd Bullish Leg. The previous two rose by more than +4.00% but the 2nd made a temporary pause at +3.44%.
That is our 1D MA200 break-out target and it interestingly falls almost exactly on Resistance 2. We are targeting 1.36100 but if the 1D MACD forms a Bearish Cross earlier, we will the the profit on that market price.
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USDSGD Channel Up trading strategyWe haven't looked into the USDSGD pair in a long time (May 16), with the last idea giving a great bullish break-out signal:
The pair has since entered a Channel Up pattern, with the latest bullish leg since July 14, just reaching the top (Higher Lows trend-line) of the pattern. This is also the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level from the 2022 High. As long as the price trades under it, we will be short, targeting the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at 1.36250. If the 0.5 Fib breaks, we will close the sell and go long instead, targeting 1.38600 (Resistance 1).
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CHFSGD Bullish runHello traders,
We have yet another great market set up to take advantage of. The CHFSGD has been consolidating in a falling wedge. We have since seen an opportunity to take advantage of a trend violation on the daily timeframe. Should we close above the trendline today, we are definately bullish unti we reach our target set at 1.48927, this target was set by our primary observation of an ABCD trend hike which is currently in motion. We will now take the long trade and hold, should we not break out of our trendline, we will close this trade.
Disclaimer
NASDAQ Guru offers general trading signals that does not take into consideration your own trading experiences, personal objectives and goals, financial means, or risk tolerance.
EURSGDEURSGD - Break out...Coming soon!
EURSGD - Technically it's brewing for break out to either direction. We are currently within the ranges of Highs: 1.44965 Lows: 1.41187
If we are to break the lows, expect the recently low areas of 1.37625 to be target areas.
If we are to break the hight, expect the the two key resistance areas to be tested and to be target areas 1. 1.47285 & 2. 1.49660
I have even enjoyed trading the USDSGD - very clean set ups!
Have a great week ahead,
Trade Journal
CADSGD, Descending Triangle For A Big DropCAD/SGD - The price dropped below the lower boundary of the descending triangle.
The target is around 1.00
USDSGD Entered its 6 year Resistance Zone.The USDSGD pair has entered a Resistance Zone where it has made long-term tops and got rejected since January 2016. Even if the long-term pattern is a Channel Up, technically there isn't much room for further growth before a correction near the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at least.
It is interesting to see also that all rejections had the same aggressive sell-off behind them, reaching the middle of the Channel (0.5 Fib) in a matter of 2-3 months. Also check the 1W RSI. Strong rejections took place once it broke above the 70.000 overbought barrier. Right now we are above it.
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SGDJPYHELLO GUYS THIS MY IDEA 💡ABOUT SGDJPY is nice to see strong volume area....
Where is lot of contract accumulated..
I thing that the buyers from this area will be defend this long position..
and when the price come back to this area, strong buyers will be push up the market again..
UPTREND + Support from the past + Strong volume area is my mainly reason for this long trade..
IF you like my work please like share and follow thanks
TURTLE TRADER 🐢
USDSGD pulling back. Two levels to buy.The USDSGD pair made a Double Top rejection two days ago and is currently on a strong bearish 1D candle. With the 1D RSI also rejected on a Double Top last since in September 29 2021, the next level to consider entering is just above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is where the June 16 Bull Flag found Support. A 1D candle close below the 1D MA50, should target the bottom of the long-term Channel, just above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is where the last two Higher Lows were formed on August 11 2022 and April 14 2022.
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Singapore dollar weighing down the British poundThe Singapore dollar has shown great strength for the past 12 months against the Great British pound, underpinned by the Singaporean economy growing 7.6% and expectations for it to continue growing the rest of this year. Adding to the strength of the Singapore dollar in recent weeks is China starting to lift its strict lockdowns, as China is Singapore’s third largest trading partner.
Looking at the weekly chart of the GBPSGD, we can easily see the strength of Singapore weighing this pair down. The BGPSGD has recently taken out the low from June 2020 and is possibly targeting the March 2020 next.
With an Aroon indicator on the chart of GBPSGD, we can look at the portions highlighted within the two circles and their corresponding trends in the chart above. The Aroon indicator is typically used for spotting trends and the strength of trends by following the movement of an orange ‘Up’ line and a Blue ‘Down’ line.
Within the first circle, the rising Up and Down lines suggest a weak trend for the corresponding chart. As such, the uptrend quickly petered out and entered a period of consolidation and a quicker reversal.
Within the second circle, we can see the Down line cross below the Up before reversing its trajectory. This movement in the Aroon indicator corresponds with the attempted bullish push in the GBPSGD. Once the Aroon lines reversed, The bullish push disappeared, and a strong bearishness entered the GBPSGD, and did so until the start of May. Currently, we can see that the two Aroon lines are separated by quite some distance. It may be worth keeping track of the Aroon lines to determine how close the GBPSGD wants to move toward that March 2020 low, if its downward trend holds.
SGDMYR 3.5 targetWas in a conversation and the SGDMYR exchange rate came up. Since 2016, Ihad thought that the SGDMYR would hit 3.50 as a target, a very painful target for many. Well, I was not right as it only breached 3.20 then and nicely consolidated.
The 3.50 target is still in play, and now present to you technically how it is projected to be...
Over the years since 2016, a multiyear triangle had been forming and 2021 seems to have broken out, retested and in 2022 April, launched upwards with the strong SGD.
The strong SGD, and even stronger USD is going to propel the exchange rate to the 3.50 target ( Current projections point to 3.45)... target projected to hit by end of 2022.
Technically, the Bollinger Bands are now expanding and the rate is pushing or leading the upper band. It has also been bouncing off the Monthly 55EMA. So, trend is going up for the next year or so.
Heads up, it is more pain to come really. And we all thought 2020-2021 were bad...
Take care folks.