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No longsMorning folks, So, market is trying to show the reaction on our major 26K support area, but it can't succeed yet. First is, today we could get bearish grabber that suggests forming of the new lows. Second - by taking a look at 4H chart we could see that BTC was not able even to complete minor 0.618 AB-CD target, hits the nearest 3/8 level and keep dropping. On 1H chart you could identify skewed H&S pattern, but BTC has problems with it as well These moments keep us aside from taking any long positions by far. Bears could try to anticipate grabber appearing with the stop somewhere above 32K initially. But - control that price close today at current levels or lower. Otherwise you will have to out, if grabber will not be formed. That's the risk. Alternatively - wait for tomorrow. In longer term, we see rising risk of BTC drop below 20K area, reaching our next 12K target as Fed doesn't stop sucking liquidity out of all markets, where the cryptos are the primary source and has lost already 60% of capitalization. Correlation with NASDAQ stands around 95% that confirms everything that we said since the last year - investors treat cryptos like second quality stock and it falls under sell-off first.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
26K target is completedMorning folks, Well, actually as BTC just has hit our long term target - it is not too much to tell about short-term situation. Now we avoid and short positions and wait for market reaction on strong support area. Particular speaking - what pattern will be formed around that let us to take tactical long position for the bounce. It probably takes few days. Supposed upside targets stand around resistance levels of 35K and the next one K-area. What is really interesting is a long term situation. As BTC confirms once again tight relation with the US stocks, and we expect miserable collapse of the stock market (that's actually already stands under way), chances of further drop of BTC in perspective of 4-6 months is growing. On monthly/weekly chart we already see rising bearish power. Next downside target stands around 12K. But if market drops there, hardly it recovers any time soon .
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
The road to 26K is openMorning folks, So, not occasionally we're skeptic on any tactic bullish setup. Thus, our recent intraday pattern even has not been formed, as market was not able to form the right arm of the pattern and collapsed not reaching the neckline. Thus, slowly but stubbornly we're coming to major 26K target. Actually BTC has no solid barriers on the way to it. Recent collapse has triggered the liquidation of miners' position as well. While BTC is coming lower - as more questions appears around final destination point. With the performance that we have on weekly chart, the 12K level doesn't seem like impossible anymore, especially in the light of our expectations of stock market collapse in nearest couple of months. That's being said, now we do not consider taking any long positions - neither for investing nor for speculative purposes. As BTC turns to extension mode, you could use most recent downside swing and its Fib levels to consider short entry. For instance, BTC could re-test broken support line, which also could be an option.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
moving with H&S patternMorning folks, So, our recent "222" is done and market re-tested 37K daily trend line support. With relatively dovish Fed comments, BTC gets the chance to show the bounce. If we get the pattern on the weekly chart- upside action could stand for 4-5K. Meantime, on 1H chart, market is forming the H&S pattern. Currently upside target based on AB-CD pattern stands slightly higher. Supposedly it should be the neckline. If we 're correct - then the bottom of the right arm, as usual, seems to be attractive point to consider the long entry
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Message merits repetitionMorning folks, So, it is nothing to please the bulls by far. April closed at tail, while weekly bullish grabber has not been formed. As we're coming to Fed and NFP and BTC still stands tightly related to stock market performance - we expect Fed comments might be more hawkish, which could put additional pressure on BTC. From this standpoint - on 1H chart we see absolutely the same setup as we've traded last time. It is once again "222" pattern that supposedly should start from $39.74K. This is for the bears. For the bulls right now we do not see anything suitable. In case of upside breakout of 40K area, something could be formed... but not yet.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Upside action looks weakMorning folks, BTC has shown a bit curious action in recent few days. The upward bounce that has become the surprise for us - has been reversed fast and price returns back to its own. The result of this action is bearish reversal session on daily chart. 1H chart shows very choppy bounce that cares no signs of thrust. It means that this is not the reversal. Now market stands at solid intraday resistance area. We suggest that downside continuation in current circumstances looks more probable and we still could keep an eye on 37K trend line support on daily chart. Bullish scenarios could return back on the table as soon as market forms some clear reversal pattern.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
We consider $37.3K and $35.7KMorning folks, So, BTC expectedly erased all potential bullish patterns around support area that we've discussed last time. H&S also has failed. With the recent J.Powell comments and dynamic of the S&P index we suggest downside continuation on BTC, with the nearest short term targets of 37.3K and 35.7K of 1H butterfly pattern. In the longer-term we do not see any reasons to change our long term view by far, and still expect that BTC should reach 26K area at least, in mid term perspective. That's why we think that time for long-term investing in BTC is not come yet.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
keep going with 38K pullbackMorning folks, So, this is mostly the update to the previous idea, as market confirms our plan and is forming reverse H&S pattern around 4H 5/8 Fib support. The butterfly that we've discussed last time, has become the part of the H&S, as we've suggested. Thus, market finally gives the pattern that bulls could follow. This is at least something. Personally I like extended pattern and better to stick with H&S and will be waiting for the drop to 5/8 support and right arm's bottom. Just because it gives best risk/reward combination and least risk. At the same time market is forming multiple patterns on 4H chart, that could trigger immediate upward action. That's why the possible compromise is to take small position now and add the bulk in a case of our primary scenario with H&S. H&S failure suggests downside continuation and the end of the upside bounce. H&S target is AB-CD based on the head and the shoulder. Now it seems it stands around next resistance area around 44K
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
38K could trigger minor tactical bounceMorning guys, So, as we've said last time - nothing has changed in our long-term view. We still think that background is not ready for long term investing in BTC. And now we see growing chances that our long-term target around 26K area will be achieved. We do not know, whether downside action stops at 26K, but at least, this area is worthy of consideration as very strong support, including all time 5/8 Fib level, daily AB-CD target and Yearly Pivot support 1. In short-term market stands around intraday 5/8 support level. Last time we said, that tactical bounce is possible, but as overall background is not friendly for the bulls - we have to wait for clear bullish pattern, because it could safe a lot of money, letting to place tight stop. On Thursday there was no suitable context for long entry. Now, with downside drop it is possible to keep an eye on 1.618 butterfly that could start from 38K. Currently price has completed 1.27 target, but since drop was relatively fast, it makes sense to wait for the next, 1.618 one. Second chance might be, if potential butterfly later becomes the part of reverse H&S pattern. IT happens very often. These are two tactical bullish scenarios to keep an eye on. And it would be better to not anticipate patterns, take position "by fact" when patterns are in place. Second - do not merry this position, take nearest upside target, because overall environment remains bearish, and the pullback will be only tactical (if it happens at all).
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Deceiving pullbackMorning folks, Last time we've discussed possible upside pullback, as around 41K area we had downside AB-CD (XOP) target, forming 3-Drive Buy and strong support area around. And now is the question - wether current pullback is what we were preparing to, or something different. We ask - it is different. In fact, we think that this pullback is just a by-product of the rivals' performance. Take a look - dollar shows the pullback, as well as traders book results on the US interest rates, preparing to Easter holidays. BTC hits 5/8 support on 4H chart and also shows the bounce, as well as S&P index. But, the truth picture is based on market response to our 41K target & support cluster. It was totally ignored - take a look at XOP area. No reaction at all. It means, that it is definitely not good time for long term investment. Upside bounce is not reliable and I would consider Fib resistance levels for the potential short entry next week. If still would like to make scalp bullish trades - wait for some clear pattern. Now market hits already first upside target and to take position you need something else. Currently we do not see any patterns by far, and think that it is not good idea to step in before weekend.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
At least something...Morning folks, In general this is an update to previous idea. So, take a look at them together. Last time we said, that it would be better to wait for 41-42K area, as market has have no bullish context and situation was blur. Right now we still think that time is not ready for long-term investing, as overall environment is not friendly for BTC. Still, tactically, in short-term, price stands at strong support area at least. And it might be used for short-term bullish trading. Thus, on 4H chart this is strong K-support area. And, here on 1H chart you could see that price simultaneously is coming to XOP (1.618) target of the AB-CD pattern and finalizes this action by 3-Drive Buy. So, If intend to buy BTC - you could use them together with K-area for position taking and stop placement. But don't marry on any position by far and move stops to breakeven ASAP. With rising US yields, falling stocks and rising US Dollar - overall background is not poisitve.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Better to wait for 41.4-42K areaMorning guys, Although we intentionally skipped Thursday update, as market was dead, today also we do not have any big progress. Speaking shortly, BTC stands now in tricky situation when it has multiple fundamental headwinds, such as interest rates rising, and at the same time constantly is supported by cross-border capitals flow from EU. This cross of different factors definitely promises volatility, but hardly could become reliable foundation for major bullish reversal. Capital flows is temporal feature that should be over within 2-3 months by our view, while fundamentals supposedly become more negative for BTC. Speaking on short-term performance we see few signs of weakness, mostly on daily chart and no acceptable bullish signs on intraday chart. Daily trend has turned bearish as well. With this environment, we think that it would be better to wait a bit more, at least until market hits 41.40-42K intraday support area. Hopefully we get something more interesting to our next update on Thu.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
cross-border capital flows support BTCMorning folks, Our last setup has failed as BTC has not shown any typical response to resistance area that we've discussed previously. At the same time, the fact that BTC is rising together with the US interest rates (which breaks the reasonable relation between these two assets) have made us to drill this question deeper. And we have come to conclusion that current upside performance is based not at sentiment changes or fundamental background but have pure fiscal reasons. As EU is coming closer to accept the US offer and put embargo on Russian hydrocarbons supply, investors start searching ways to protect the capital and reduce risk. This leads to acceleration of cross-border capital flows out from EU. In fact, once sanctions were imposed, we've seen fast jump on BTC due Russian oligarchs money inflow. Currently we have longer lasting process and capital flow could last longer, providing support to the BTC market, with some acceleration in May and June when EU economy gets the first fruits of its financial policy. This makes us to take in consideration the scenario with possible higher targets, although doesn't change our fundamental opinion that BTC is less attractive compares to bonds and dividend stocks right now. Fundamentals once again should come on the first stage, once EU capital flows start to dry out. Meantime, we consider two not mutually exclusives scenarios in short term. Right now on daily chart price hits 3/8 major Fib resistance, completing upside AB-CD pattern right around resistance line. This makes us could on tactical bounce at least, to 42.5-43K area first. Depending on how BTC response on intraday support, next target might be 55.1-55.3K which is 1.618 extension (XOP) of the same AB-CD pattern and Agreement with the next 5/8 resistance area. BTC failure to hold intraday support levels makes action to 26K target possible again. That's being said - bears could start searching reversal patterns on 1H chart to take scalp short positions, while bulls should wait when BTC hits intraday support areas. We return to this subject on Thursday, as usual.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
43K bearish setupMorning folks, By watching on the way, how BTC is climbing up, it seems that sentiment remains bearish but there is some monetary support exists on the market. As EU economy meets big problems, investors are searching for alternatives in a way of the US assets and cryptocurrencies. Still, as performance looks heavy, slow and choppy, we do not see any reasons to be optimistic and take long position here. Tactically we see bearish setup, that might be interesting, at least it provides acceptable risk/reward combination. BTC hits AB=CD target of 42.97K on 4H chart, forming "222" Sell and finalizing it with 3-Drive pattern, showed on the chart. Theoretically it could become the starting point of either downside pullback or more extended downside action.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Bearish sentiment is intactMorning folks, Despite that market has climbed slightly higher, since our previous discussion, we do not see any changes in sentiment of the market. Reaction on Fed statement was weaker than on other markets. Despite, we treat Fed statement as hawkish (we've explained our position last time) which brings a lot of headwinds to the BTC in longer term perspective. That's why currently we do not see any reasons to cancel our downside target @ 26K and expectations of downside continuation. Besides, if we compare right now the performance of S&P index last week and BTC one, we see the big difference, as BTC looks anemic. This just shows that investors have low interest to BTC and prefer blue chips stocks first, treating the BTC as stocks of a low quality. Technically it is visible in the shape of the upside performance. With tactic, minor upside AB-CD pattern, the CD leg is much slower than it should be and this is bearish sign. While market is contracting, and forming narrowing triangle - you could recognize multiple patterns in both directions. Mostly they are butterflies of different scales and sizes. And we can't forbid you to trade them, trying to anticipate its appearing. But... Our personal position that bears have more points right now, which makes us to treat bearish scenario as more probable. While market is coiling inside this triangle we suggest that to wait is best choice by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
Fed bearish commentsMorning folks, Despite just 25 bp point move from the Fed, overall comments are bearish for BTC market. The terminal rate is raisen to 2.4-2.8%, cycle term is extended until 2024 and GDP forecast is cut from 4% to 2.8%. It means that economy works with negative performance and should keep doing so in foreseeable future. Fed is few steps behind inflation that now is 8% and 12% on MoM basis. As BTC generates no passive income - dividend or interest, hardly it could compete with bond market, and rising rates is solid headwind for performance. This makes us to keep our 26K target valid. On short-term background, market shows wobbling action, giving no attractive trading setups. As bulls as bears could recognize multiple potential butterflies in both direction. It is not forbidden to deal with them, but with environment of wide uncertainty, we mostly gravitate to bearish scenario. Thus, BTC reaction on Fed decision looks weak, market wasn't able to reach the upper border of big triangle, which we treat as sign of weakness. To avoid setting too extended target, we suggest that BTC could try to complete downside AB-CD, or butterfly in short-term with target around 35.7-36K area. But trading process now impose high uncertainty and big risk because of necessity to anticipate possible pattern. This is suitable to not everybody. Reasonable mind is needed to make a decision on taking any position. For the truth sake to wait is probably the best decision now.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
bearish continuation patternMorning folks, Action of the last week is not very impressive as BTC tries to hold on the last 5/8 support area, forming no interest patterns on intraday charts by far. And week chart now provides more important picture. Now it is easy recognize forming bearish pennant, suggesting that downside action should continue. Fundamentally, it is correct, as BTC can't compete with interest-bearing assets, such as Bond and even dividend stocks, while rising interest rates as soon as this week should become another punch, especially if Fed provides more hawkish comments. And this is highly likely with monthly inflation around 12%. Besides, the price action also shows no signs of recovery. Thus, any attempt to rally was absorbed very fast and traders use any chance to close position as price is coming to 40-45K area. The pullback in recent 2 months has not exceeded 30% of the drop. Hourly chart shows choppy action that is difficult to treat as reversal. All this stuff makes us stay aside from investing and keep 26K target on the table.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
A tricky momentMorning folks, Bitcoin was able to stay above our "C" point, keeping at least theoretical chances on upward action. And theoretically both scenarios are possible. This is typical situation, when market stands in contraction mode, forming narrower and narrower swings, so we could easily imagine butterflies in both direction. But... we could be wrong actually. But we gravitate to bearish scenario by few reasons. First is, background has not changed and it is definitely not better than before 24th of February. Second - despite that big russian inflows, triggered recent jump and yesterday's attempt to go higher - sellers are absorbing any rally. Finally, on daily chart we have few bearish patterns, suggesting downside action. These moments makes us think that advantage stands on the bears' side. That's why there are two options actually. Either you anticipate and take trades on patterns that yet to be formed, taking more risk, or - just wait for the clarity. On the chart we draw short-term possible scenario to the downside. IF you would like to sell, then it is possible to hide stop above 43K now.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
37K is a signal levelMorning everybody, So, it seems that our doubts concerning recent rally, that it might be just flows of Russian oligarchs and EU investors at less degree, seems to be correct, as it was reversed very fast. Second is, BTC shows no positive reaction on supportive NFP report on Friday. Our vital support level, that we've discussed last time, has been broken fast. And now we have big bearish engulfing pattern on 4H chart. Although we suppose that bearish context is already re-established, formal confirmation is downside breakout of 37K lows of "C" point. In this case upside AB-CD pattern will be erased. Recent action makes us to keep our central scenario with daily butterfly and 26K target valid.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
41K invalidation pointMorning folks, So, last setup is done nice, but I suspect that it was driven by capitals flow as of Russian oligarchs as EU investors that are rebalancing assets and moving some out of the EU. It is interesting now, for how long this flow will last. But, this is different topic... In short term, market has great upside momentum, and technically it is difficult to think about short positions, although not impossible. For the long entry we suggest 41K area might be interesting as strong support and the neckline of our H&S pattern. Market has to stay above it to keep going higher. Additionally, you could use Stop "buy" order instead, somewhere around 45.5K area. Next target is 46.7-47K area.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4
The tricky patternMorning folks, On BTC we've got the pullback as on all the other markets, which could be wrongly treated as preparation to reversal. We do not follow to this suggestion and still keep 26K target on the table. So, our position is - No investments in BTC by far. Still, for short-term trading, you could consider this hourly reverse H&S pattern that might start from ~ 38K and potentially could reach 43K target. But, to get it we need silence from the geopolitical arena. Any surprises that hardly will be positive, push BTC to new lows. In this case, the coming J. Powell speech on Thursday and NFP release most probably will be ignored.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
26K is a question of timeMorning folks, So, it is no need to make big comments. Keeping all non-technical background aside, from technical point of view Bitcoin has failed to form H&S pattern and dropped below major 5/8 support. Thus odds suggest taking out of 32K lows - this is the usual performance, when H&S fails. Price drops below the head. As market has no solid support areas between 32 and 26K, we suggest that reaching of 26K is a question of time. So, we keep our position the same - it is not the time for long-term investing yet.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2