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40-40.5K pullback and 45.25K targetMorning folks, It was a good rally last week, the H&S pattern that we've discussed has not even been formed, but the major test still stands ahead. The point is 44.70-46.50K is a strong weekly resistance area. Upward action looks nice but mostly it is due to the weakness in the USD but not of strength in BTC itself. We suggest that it is too early to forget about the downside trend and 26K target. We suggest that BTC shows a downside reaction from ~45-46K area and it should be a moderate pullback at least. Although we do not exclude the downside continuation also. In the short-term BTC has free space to 45-46 area and our next target is XOP @ 45.25K. But, as we have completed AB=CD and "222" Sell pattern, the minor downside pullback to 40-40.5K area could happen first. That's being said, bears should wait when upside resistance will be touched and XOP target will be completed, while bulls could consider 40-40.5K area and 45.25K destination point.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Lucky to get 38K pullback before collapseMorning folks, This week is relatively quiet as geopolitical tensions calm down temporarily while everything that could be said about Fed hawkish policy already was said... But it doesn't mean that situation is changing. We treat current action as temporal relief and still do not see any signs of reversal and think that it is early to invest in BTC. Just watch the video on the FPA site for analysis of other time frames and more in-depth analysis. So, we still see nothing to do for the bulls. For the bears... maybe you could consider this pattern. BTC could start dropping right now, and we become lucky if first, we get upside bounce to 38K to form the right arm...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Everything is mostly the sameGreetings everybody, In recent two sessions market has got relief as geopolitical tensions calm down a bit and dust around Fed hawkish policy has settled. Still, we suggest that this is temporal relief, as in geopolitics as around Fed policy. Technically it takes shape of wobbling choppy and heavy upside action that difficult to call as reversal stage. As we've already discussed - to let us to think about any reversal at all, market has to form upside reversal swing and break LL-LH downside tendency. Right now BTC is not able even to reach 1H 5/8 resistance area. Thus, in current circumstance we do not consider any long entry by far and keep our mid term 26K target valid. For the short entry there are few options exist. Most obvious right now is potential butterfly pattern that could trigger downside continuation. Theoretically, we could imagine some upside continuation in a way of AB=CD pattern and minor upside butterfly that could finalize it (try to imagine it by yourself), but we do not see sufficient fundamental background for this action using cross-market analysis, especially with interest rates market. it makes us to treat this scenario as less probable. For more details - watch our video on FPA site.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Not enough upside powerMorning folks, As we've suggested last time, daily Oversold could push price a bit higher to test intraday Fib levels, but it is not enough to overcome fundamental reasons of weakness. Thus, yesterday's Fed statement has pushed BTC back down again. To keep it clear - we need action above 42K area to get only the first signs of changing. Intaday "lower-lows, lower highs" tendency has to be broken first, before we start thinking about investing. Currently we do not see it. Taking the detailed view on recent performance - market has tried to form upside AB-CD but was able to reach only minor 0.618 extension. CD leg is slower than AB and recent reversal already pushed price under the "C" point, forming bearish reversal swing. Thus, although we do not exclude chance for another one, larger AB=CD upside pattern, downside continuation seems more probable. For example, it might starts with H&S pattern, but not necessary. That's being said, we still do not see good investment background and keep our 26K target and final point of the initial swing down.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
When I'm 26...Morning folks, So, it seems that our suggestion on rising of the bearish dynamic pressure on Thursday last week was correct... Right now a lot of things to discuss in relation to BTC, so if you have a time, it would be better if you watch our daily video on FPA site. Anyway, shortly speaking, we do not see any bullish signs right now and suggest that reaching of 26-28K area seems very probable within few weeks. Current stop is due reaching of daily oversold area but not because of reaching our targets. Other words speaking - it was not the drop to the targets, it was just the drop down. Once market takes some rest, it probably keep going lower. Thus, right now we do not see any good background for investing. Bears could try to catch some pullbacks to intraday resistance areas- - 37.5K seems as most suitable. Analysis of the longer-term charts looks a bit scaring, as it suggests solid upside pullback at some moment, highly likely that it happens right from 26K area, supposedly back to 40-44K area, but then we should get another downside extension. Still, this is long-term picture that could change many times an we return back to discuss of these issues when time will come.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Bearish dynamic pressureMorning guys, Well, market shows anemic action, upside butterfly on 1H chart from our last report has been cancelled. Today we have "222" Buy on 1H chart, but it doesn't matter, actually. The one thing that we would like to show is the daily picture, and the price action that we do not like and that might become the first sign of downside breakout. It calls "bearish dynamic pressure'. The red line on the chart is MACD derivative indicator. When price stands above it - MACD shows bullish trend and vice versa. So, now trend stands bullish, but price action is not, it shows downside continuation. Very often it leads to downside breakout, whether it will be short-term spike or real downside continuation. THere some other moments exist on the intraday charts, why we do not consider yet the buying of BTC, but daily pressure is the one that should be watching first.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
BTC - no signs to buyMorning folks, So, the last analysis seems to be completed nicely. Now the big question is where we go next. The problem is we do not have this week any important speeches or statistics, so interest rates performance could be wobbling, as well as BTC market. In fact, current performance shows nothing bullish and we still do not see any reasons to buy BTC. Besides, we suggest that Dollar Index retracement should be a bit higher, which limits the upside potential of the Bitcoin market as well. For the truth's sake I would say - do nothing by far. But just to not leave you without a dessert, we show two possible scenarios that you could consider depending on your own view on the market. We suggest that market is more bearish now rather than bullish, but we could be wrong... Anyway, if you would like to buy BTC - you could consider upside butterfly with the target around the XOP and vital area at recent local lows. Coversely bears could think about downside butterfly that, as we suppose could finalize our short term target on 4H chart around 36K area within a week or two. S.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Wait for pullback, at leastMorning folks, We do not want to upset you, but our opinion that recent upside action is not the major reversal yet. Mostly it is not achievement of BTC market but the weakness of the US Dollar due recent CPI report. BTC shows much weaker reaction compares to the FX market, which makes it similar to the Gold and Interest rates market. As dollar stands oversold right now on daily chart and BTC stands at strong 1H chart resistance, we suggest two downside scenarios. The light one is just the pullback, at least to 42K area before BTC tries to reach 46K target. And the heavy one - BTC could even keep downside action to our next target of 36.5K. Both of them suggest downside action, although of different kind. With the view on higher time frames - we do not see reasons yet to invest in BTC. The only move above 48-49K could become the first hint that something positive is going on, as a lot of bearish moments exist right now around the different time frames.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
We keep valid 40K and 36K targetsMorning folks, It is a difficult choice today - what chart to show in the update because higher time frames are more important. Anyway, in two words - we think that downside continuation has more chances to happen this week. Taking in consideration how BTC has reacted on Fed minutes publication and that weaker NFP numbers were not able to support it, we suggest that we could get another drop, especially with coming CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales this week. Thus, we suggest that it is not time for investing in BTC, taking long-term positions. Still, 10-year yields hit 1.8% of our predefined target, forming a bearish butterfly and we have two sessions until the PPI report, BTC could show minor bounce. The price action that we see on the 1H chart is hard to call "reliable", but, at least it has a relatively small risk. This is only for scalp traders who want to buy BTC. A minor pullback could happen here. Besides, this is the only pattern that we could extract from messy and choppy fluctuation by far... But with a high degree of certainty, this trade will be rather bumpy.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
40K is highly likelyMorning folks, Now you understand our doubt on taking any long position on BTC by far. Despite our H&S setup has tried to show upward action with some bounce and was with relatively low risk, BTC once again shows its dependence on interest rate performance. The recent fed minutes release just has crushed it once again. We really hope that BTC will be able to avoid serious bearish consequences, but now situation is becoming more tricky. Anyway, as we suggest that 10-year yields should rise at least to 1.8% area, it makes very probable BTC drop to 1.27 extension of 40K area. Drop to the next 35.5-36K target is also probable but to say it definitely we need to see the performance to 40K target first. If it becomes the same way as yesterday, then yes, BTC follows to 36K as well. That's being said, now we do not consider taking any new long positions. Besides, we do not have any patterns and other technical reasons to do it by far. Now BTC price shape accurately repeats the shape of consolidation on daily chart after the May collapse. Let's hope that this duplication continues and BTC keeps chances on the reversal from current levels.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
IF you want to...Morning folks, Hopefully, you've got a good time and Holidays with your family and had some rest... We have a lot of things to tell today, but all of them stand on higher time frames, which is out of the scope of daily analysis. Our previous setup has worked perfectly and confirmed our doubts about BTC strength. Today we could confirm the same, as we see a lot of technical moments that increase chances of another drop on BTC. But, if you still want to try to buy it - here is a 1H pattern. At least it provides reasonable risk to deal with it. And in the worst case, you could be out at breakeven. This is the reverse H&S pattern on the 1H chart that BTC likes to form. The market now is coming to the final stage and forming the right arm. It means that somewhere around 46.3-46.35$ the entry point should be ready. Our suggestion is that chances stand high that this pattern fails, but anyway, this is a probability game and it doesn't mean that you can't try it. If you're not sure - then sit on the hands and wait for clarity. Our basic scenario is BTC should challenge recent lows within a few sessions. So, with our next update on Thu, we should get more clarity on this situation.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
No bullish breakthroughMorning folks, So, we've got the drop that counted on last time and BTC once again at 5/8 support. But is it ready to be bought now? I have big doubts on it. BTC now stands in tight performance with the US interest rates. Once they have jumped to 1.56% area - BTC has dropped. Right now, interest rates suggest minor retracement, as "222" Sell pattern has been completed there. The reflection of this we have on BTC - a bit ugly 3-Drive buy, suggesting possible pullback to 48.1-48.3K area. But this is only for scalp traders. In a bit longer perspective, we think that the time is not come yet to invest. First is - drop was rather deep and choppy. Market stands at 5/8 support for the second time, which increases the chance of further drop back to the lows. Second - right now we do not have any clear bullish pattern and no solid bullish performance that could assure us with reversal. That's being said - if you trade on 1H or lower time frames, you could try to buy with 48.1-48.3 target at K-resistance area. While on higher time frames, daily/weekly basis, we do not see sufficient context for long entry right now. Chances on re-testing of major lows have increased as well, with this recent downside action...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
I would wait for the pullback still...Morning folks, So, H&S performance was rather nice, despite that market was thin. Now is the major question - whether we're ready for new rally, or its not the time yet. My personal view is the latter. Despite that jump was nice, but if we take a look at 4H chart we see that - market stands at strong K-resistance area, and overall action on CD leg is a bit slower than on AB pullback. Besides, bearish grabber could be formed within few hours. Personally I'm a bit conservative, and in the conditions like that I prefer to wait for clarity and try to catch the possible pullback around major support areas - the nearest one is around 48K. THere are some other reasons exist on higher time frames as well. But, this is just my personality. Tastes stand to differ. So, if you would like to possess on immediate upward continuation, which also has chances to happen - you could try to do this. For this purpose you do not need to place deep stop. In fact, downside reaction on COP is done already and if market goes up at all - it should do it right from here. Otherwise, "my" scenario above starts to realize. So, chose what you like more and what is better fits your trading style.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
47.10-47.60 for potential long entryMorning everybody, So, last time we said that market shows no bullish performance that could be sufficient to consider the long entry. Finally, we've got something. Maybe this is the result of thin market, but anyway, this is at least something that have bullish sentiment. On 1H chart first is - price has formed upside bullish reversal swing. This action makes possible appearing of reverse H&S pattern. The right arm theoretically should be formed around 47.10-47.60 area - around major 5/8 Fib support. Invalidation point is, as usual - below the head. If H&S fails, and BTC can't start upward action - we should again recall the downside XOP target @ 42K.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
42.40K stands on the horizonMorning folks, As BTC shows really weak performance, we suggest it would be better to wait with any long positions by far. One of the reasons is recent reaction on major AB=CD target on 1H chart. The reaction was only minor AB-CD (blue) retracement and not even attempt to form, say, reverse H&S pattern. It makes us think that XOP target is the next one - 42.40K This also should be the big test for the major lows as XOP stands just 50$ above it. Thus, we suggest that it would be better to wait when XOP will be reached, or until situation will change in some other way and BTC starts to show bullish signs. Currently we do not see it. Breaking of 42K lows will be bad thing suggesting much deeper drop on higher time frames. To keep bullish context BTC has to stay above this low.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Anemic action provides nothing valuableMorning everybody, So, BTC is so stunned by recent collapse that it can't show anything interesting by far. The only things that we could discuss is intraday performance. Thus, our '222" Buy on 4H chart has started well, but it already has completed the minimum target. Recent reaction on Fed statement makes us think that this is more the profit booking by speculators rather than change in sentiment. It means that BTC could try to climb slightly higher to complete 50.11K target, but hardly (at least we do not see any signs for this) it will go to the next "blue" XOP . That's being said, if you have long position with "222" Buy - you could try to hold it until 50.11K target, but now we do not see comfortable conditions for taking new long position by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
No sighs of recovery yetMorning folks, Currently BTC follows to our basic scenario that we've announced after collapse has happened. Market should fluctuate in a range as it has happened after May sell-off. There are few reasons for that as fundamental as technical. Technically - market has solid bearish momentum that should be faded first. Recent performance makes us think that BTC still could creep lower and even re-test the low that is set now. Fundamentally - market is entering into new environment of tighter Fed policy that happens for the first time in its history. And nobody can predict how BTC reacts. First test looks not very optimistic as BTC was sold off as well as some 2nd quality risky asset. Since within few days another Fed meeting comes and we think that hawkish comments are highly likely, BTC could get 2nd hit. Right now price action on 1H chart doesn't show any signs of recovery. This is mostly indecision behavior. That's being said, in current situation we do not see something else, except potential "222" Buy pattern around 45-45.5K area. This is something, at least, that could provide more or less acceptable background. Besides, 45 is closer to 41k lows then current price action. If we get strong downside action - this pattern should be ignored. Only gradual downside retracement, in the way how we see it now will be acceptable for this setup.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
We need to be patientMorning folks, This time we do not discuss any clear trading setups, as we do not have any of them yet. But what we see interesting right now is comparison of May collapse and the recent one. First is, we expect some similarity on how market should react and behave on it. Last time it was flat consolidation before BTC has shown real thrusting action and breaks the consolidation up. The same thing we expect to see now. But first market has to confirm the lows by multiple testing of them. The reason why we need it - different background of collapse. Last time it was single factor - banning of the mining in China. This time we have more serious and time extended pattern - Fed policy. And currently it is not definite yet that lows are set already. In nearest time we expect wide BTC fluctuation and re-testing of previous lows. Thus, we do not consider any long positions by far. Be patient...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Crucial 3 weeksMorning everybody, So, once again H&S from our last report has become great indicator of further action. It has failed, and failed miserably. Once again it shows how important to have clear pattern that lets you to minimize potential loss. I'm sure, somebody, who have traded H&S failure were able to get good result. Anyway, today is nothing to discuss on lower time frames. Collapse just has happened, and market has not enough time to response. The major thing we have on the monthly chart. Market has dropped to strong K-area and potentially could form the bullish grabber. Hopefully we'll get it. In this case market keeps bullish context and will remain on the way to 76K+ area. But, before taking long-term position - we have to get grabber confirmation, i.e. wait until December close. The reasons are simple. First is, BTC was looked like cheap 2nd quality risky assets and it has taken the first, initial impact of changing fundamental background. It has dropped almost for 30% - much more compares to the stocks, for example. It explains how investors treat it, and proves that it is too far until BTC could even pretend on the quality of safe-haven. It means that current pullback might be just technical reaction, but not buyers step-in. We're dealing not with just reaction on some news headline. Market react on changing of economical background, that is extended in time. This is the risk, that once first reaction will be over - BTC could keep going lower. So, be patient and not hurry up with long entry.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
The lovely H&S againMorning folks, As we've suggested last time, in general BTC keeps bullish context but it would be better to buy as close to local lows as possible. It seems that H&S pattern becomes the favorite one for the BTC market. Now - once again, if you intend to go long, this is the time for decision making, as price is coiling around the right arm's bottom. The stop is better to place at least under 55K area, as market still could form a kind of butterfly here, with slightly deeper action. But it is not definitely, and only to choose the stop area. Position taking time has already come. In a case of H&S failure we suggest downside action somewhere to 51K - market will fluctuate inside wide weekly support area of 51-54K. It is vital for long term performance. So, if you have bearish view - then your choice is to watch for H&S failure signs, such as price dropping below 55K and moving to the head's bottom.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Watching for upside reversalMorning folks, So, BTC finally has dropped to predefined 51-53K strong support area, and based on technical picture it is suitable enough to reverse price. At the same time with Omicron panic around the Globe, the reversal process might be tricky and BTC could show more volatility around this level. In fact, we have a lot of different bullish signs that point on possible upside reversal (if not major but moderate, at least), and it is impossible to show them all on this chart. So, if you would like to - watch the video on FPA site. Its free. Here we just tell that current support is crucial for BTC sentiment. We suggest that invalidation point stands under the level, and right now it would be better to not place stop too tight below the recent lows. By our view, reasonable area is below 50K. In this case your stop will be as below strong support as below weekly oversold and has minimum chances to be filled occasionally. Hence, the task is to buy BTC as close to the lows as possible. We see few patterns that might be formed here - and one of them reverse H&S that already we could recognize, but it looks better on 4H chart. Also you could consider intraday support levels for entry as well by other reasons (watch the video). Finally be aware of bearish grabber that is forming right now on daily chart. We hope that it will be cancelled by the end of the day, but who knows... With new variant fears around, market could challenge the lows few times, if we get some bad news headlines.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Looks a bit heavy...Morning folks, Last time we've said that price performance with supposed H&S pattern should clarify the sentiment and direction. Now we see that performance looks a bit heavy. This is not the one that you expect to see with bullish reversal pattern. The logic of H&S suggests that the 2nd half of the pattern should be controlled by bulls, that we do not see here. In fact, market has made attempt to touch the neckline but failed and drop back to the head. Now right at the bottom BTC has formed "222" Sell pattern (that you could see on 1H chart). This performance provides not sufficient context for immediate long entry and increases chances on another downside action to major 51-53K support area. For long entry here we need more confirmation of bullish sentiment. With the things as they stand now, we suggest not to take long position by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4
Watching for the pattern #2Morning folks, Last time we were watching for H&S on 1H chart that perfectly clarified situation to us. Now, market has completed next downside 4H target at 15.5K and is forming the same pattern but of a bit bigger scale. So, we once again intend to use it. For the bulls - you have to make decision right now as price stands at the bottom of the right arm. You could place relatively tight stop, somewhere in the middle between the head bottom and right arm's lows. Because if market doesn't turn up here - it doesn't turn up at all and keep dropping to next support area. For the bears - you could use Stop "Sell" order slightly above the Head's bottom. If H&S works - do nothing and wait when it hits the target, at least. These setups are not mutually exclusive, so you could combine them if you want...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten