Get started

SIVE

About retracement againGreetings everybody, So last week was relatively quiet with no impact on higher time frames. Market stands in consolidation, slightly was hit by CPI report. So the same question we have on the table now - whether it will be deeper AB=CD retracement or, market could start moving higher immediately. To answer it, we need to control two vital levels that are mutually exclusives. First, let's start from the bearish scenario. Market has formed reversed H&S on 1H chart and almost hits its first, AB=CD target. This target creates Agreement resistance with daily 5/8 Fib levels. And overall shape looks like "222" Sell pattern. So, if you have bearish view - this is the area that you need to think about. Once you take the position - move stops to breakeven as soon as possible. Next one is bullish scenario. Once pullback from resistance starts - we need to keep an eye on 64.8-65K area. This is neckline, and K-support area. If BTC indeed is bullish - it has to stay above it. Downside breakout means that bearish scenario wins and we get deeper daily AB=CD action. Hence - this level is for bulls to consider. If 1H H&S keeps working - next target stands around 69K top.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
CPI effect durabilityMorning folks, So the drop that we've discussed last time has happened but due to absolutely different reason - CPI report. Now the question is, how long CPI effect will be. As BTC has general bullish context sooner rather than later it should keep going higher. Here we have two scenarios. To understand which one will be formed - we need to keep an eye on daily chart and intraday one. On daily, we need to watch for bullish grabber, as BTC stands at support of recent ATH and K-support area on intraday charts. If grabber appears tod-tom, it means that BTC is able to start rising immediately. Alternatively, if no grabbers appear - we could get downside AB-CD that could start from ~ 66K area lead price to next support of 62K. This action anyway is tactical and doesn't hurt long term background. But, it is solid action anyway. That's being said we're watching for daily patterns and price performance around 66K resistance where "222" Sell might be formed.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
63.5-64.5 are for entry, 70K is nearest targetMorning folks, So, it seems our bet on triangle's direct breakout is worked and we hope that we're in continuation mode to the major upside targets. At least fundamental background that we've got last week stands supportive to BTC upward action. So, those who haven't taken position inside the triangle now we could consider 63.5-63.8 K-support area on 1H chart and optionally nearest support at 64.5K. Market hits AB=CD target, so, at least minor respect we should get. Hopefully it will be enough to step-in. Our nearest upside target is the daily one, and it stands at 70K area.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Direct upward continuationMorning folks, So, H&S pattern has played nice, despite that we saw some speculative tricks during Fed statement... Now we should pay attention to daily chart that is forming bullish context. We're tending to suggestion that BTC should show direct upward continuation without any deeper retracement. Once first downside bounce happened, we had few potential scenarios - triangle, some DiNapoli patterns and downside AB=CD. Now, based on performance that we see on intraday charts, it seems that triangle scenario is most probable. As triangle is continuation pattern and is forming right under previous top - it means that market is building an energy to challenge it. So, as a conclusion, we do not consider any bearish position right now. For long entry, it is possible to catch intraday bullish patterns, such as recent H&S or "2222" Buy, whatever will be formed. Also pay attention to recent top inside the triangle. If price jumps above it - most probable that upward continuation is started. More details in the video on FPA site. Take care, S.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Additional scenario of retracement appearsHey everybody, BTC still stands with suggested retracement out from 67K month target. We still have two major destination points for it - 56.25K and 51.65K, although we hope that it wouldn't go so far... Today we would like to share with some add-on to the retracement's shape that might be interesting. Currently it is impossible to say, whether this scenario works as reversal and triggers direct upward continuation to next long-term target, or it just pushes price to 65K target before 2nd downside leg starts. If this setup fails, then it could reshape into downside butterfly and complete 56.25K target. So, for conservative traders, it is not necessary to follow it. At the same time it has some adv., and the major one is ability to place very tight stop. We're talking about H&S pattern that is formed around daily support line. Market stands at the point of right arm's bottom, where upward action should start. Whether to follow it or not - is up to you. Thus, for a conservative approach - look for more clarity. Otherwise, you could try this one, if it fits to your view and trading style.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Retracement targetsGood morning folks, As BTC is getting clearer shape, now we could talk about potential targets of downside retracement. Triangle has not been formed, so, immediate upward continuation was taken off the table. Now it is clear H&S shape and it has two potential targets. First one is very close, that is AB=CD that agrees with strong Fib support area. This is the first level for accumulation and attempt to buy, as market has good chances to bounce, at least temporary, that lets us to move stops to b/e. Currently we do not have serious reasons to suggest drop to XOP and next Agreement area with major 5/8 Fib support. But, if this happens, still - you know what level to watch next. These two levels are enough to hold retracement on any bullish market. If BTC somehow breaks them both - it will be clear signal that something is broken in bullish machine.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Retracement shapeGood morning folks, So the first downside reaction starts as we've discussed it last time. Now, it is too big task to explore possible shapes and describe them here - just watch the video on FPA site if you're interested... Here I would say only that we need to control the depth of the reaction. First is, if market starts to form the triangle - this is the clear sign to buy and coming upside continuation. All other shapes suggest deeper retracement. The first one you already could see on 4H chart - this is H&S. This pattern could lead price to 55K at, least. Alternatively we could get the Double Top, that suggests even deeper retracement and re-testing local highs around 52K. So let's start with H&S and see how it will turn. Once we get more information - we return to this subject on Thu, with our next update.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
To back or not to backMorning folks, So, BTC hits ATH and 0.618 (COP) 67K extension on monthly chart. This is first upside target of new large AB-CD pattern. Also price hits weekly overbought. Technically, picture definitely suggests that BTC should go higher in long-term. Our first target is 75-77K. But in near-term the major question is whether it shows any reaction on the top and what reaction will be. As usual it could be either wash&rinse of the top and deeper pullback or market could start coiling around it. The former is more bearish for lower time frames than the latter. Hence the strategy is different depending on what you would like to do. For bulls we suggest it makes sense to wait for pullback to 56.5-59K area where nice bullish setup might be formed and this area is attractive to possess for upward continuation. Besides, hardly you would like to buy at ATH and weekly overbought level. For the bears picture is not as pleasant, mostly because of the major tendency. Right now the background for taking position is not ready it. Yes, market hits the targets but it is unclear the reaction yet, as too few time passed since then. As targets stand at long term chart, do not scare to miss the entry moment. If reaction starts - it will be clear and extended. That's being said - now we should understand what the reaction will be (if any). Approximately, bulls should keep an eye on 56.5-59K, while bears have to wait for clear signs and patterns before pull the trigger
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Pullback after 64-67K targetsMorning folks, So BTC stands nice and we have no doubts in long term bullish context. So our attention right now mostly on short term performance as many people ask where next chance for entry could appear. Right now BTC stands at weekly overbought area and is coming to targets of COP ~ 67K on monthly chart and daily OP at 64K. I suspect that 67K might be hit technically on triggering buying stops above ATH.... Anyway, whatever shape price takes on a way up and around these targets, it seems we could consider 55K support area (this is current level) as we potentially could get DInapoli B&B "Buy" trade if our suggestion will be correct and, indeed, market shows some tactical bounce once targets will be reached...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Buying on deepsMorning folks, BTC performance now looks great. We consider at this moment only long position taking, at least on daily and above time frames. But to do this we need more or less moderate retracement. Right now, as price hits 1.27 upside extension on daily chart, this is the chance that maybe we get some pullback. In this case we consider 50.7-51K as primary level to watch for. Retracement also could be very small - just to 53K. At current moment other support levels have less chances to be reached.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
50.3K seems attractive for long entryMorning folks, So, BTC has got rather strong positive injection from JP so it has not formed even minor pullback before the rally that we have discussed lat time. Now market has no significant barriers till the former ATH top. Besides, based on the market mechanics, BTC should not show any deep retracements any more. It means that currently we could consider only more or less moderate pullbacks for new position taking. Now price stands at Overbought on daily chart and 56.6K is extension resistance (not shown here). It gives us some chances that BTC could show some pullback starting somewhere around current levels. In this case we could keep an eye on few support levels for new entry. Our favor stands at 50.30K K-support area which seems most reliable for this purpose.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
It seems that direction is setMorning folks, Once we were watching for deeper action, market suddenly has got the injection of positive mood from JP that drastically has shifted situation and our supposed retracement was over in a blink of an eye. Now, we the patterns that we have on higher time frames - weekly and monthly, we could say that upward direction seems to be set. As we have signs of thrusting action, we suppose that extension mode is started. Our long-term target is 75K. So, the recent lows become now vital area for current bullish context and market has to stay above it to keep it. At current moment we do not consider any short positions. As price now stands at major 5/8 resistance and Agreement with upside AB-CD target, flirting near Overbought area, maybe it makes sense to consider tactic pullback to 44-45K area for long entry. Especially because H&S shape is becoming clear now.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
It would be better to wait a bitMorning folks, So market drifts a bit lower as we suggested, but at the same it shows good resistance to dollar appreciation and situation on EUR and Gold looks worse. Still, personally I feel uncomfortable to take long position right now as few bearish signs still stand in place. Thus, daily OP target and major 5/8 support area have not been touched yet. Today also we could get bearish daily grabber that agrees with potential butterfly shape that still could be formed. Until it will be cancelled by direct upward breakout - it is not safe to buy. Thus, we think that for short term trading it would be better to wait for more clarity. Recent rally is good but we saw it before how they were cancelled. For long-term investments and accumulation 38-40K area is good enough as we do not see any problems on longer-term charts. Our next long-term target is 75K
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Reversal might be trickyMorning everybody, So, our last setup works more or less properly and now it seems that BTC shows nice upward action. Still, we have some reasons to suggest that downside action is not over yet and warn you about few scenarios that might appear here. At the same time whatever we get it - it doesn't hurt our long-term scenario which is bullish with 74.5K target in medium term. So, all that we tell here is mostly tactical and for daily/intraday basis. So, the first level to watch is 44.9K where market is going first. It stands at the same strong resistance area that has triggered downside drop last time. Major daily AB-CD target at 38K still has not been completed yet. It makes us think, that butterfly has big chances to appear here. It could make technical picture perfect. First is - become a background for reversal. Second - finalize daily target. Next level that also makes sense to watch is 46.3K. Although it stands above resistance, but it is the potential reversal point of "222" Sell pattern that we could get. Not necessary that BTC starts dropping to new lows out there, but some downside pullback has big chances to happen. Thus, we think that for long entry it would be better to wait either reaching of major target of 38-38.5K, or upside breakout above 46.5K, while bears could consider current setup with 44.9K level and butterfly. It is very comfortable as it lets to place very tight stops - just above recent top of 45.25K. As you can see, despite that we have upward bounce - there are a lot of tricky moments around it.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
38K still...Morning folks, So BTC has shown nice reaction on our H&S pattern, showing another collapse down, barely has not reached major 38K support that was an our target. Currently we have to say that 38 still "IS" our target. Despite that we have nice upward bounce, we treat chances for V-shape reversal now and direct upward continuation as "low". There are few reasons for that. First is too strong and fast downside action that has solid momentum. Second - price is going to very strong resistance area around 45K and, finally, intraday performance that stands week. All these moments make us still keep an eye on another leg down to 38K level. It means that if you would like to buy BTC, it would be better to wait for either upward breakout of 46K level or completion of our scenario around 38K. For the bears - you could consider short entry around major resistance with stops above it. The major advantage of this setup is very tight stop, so the risk is minimal but reward might be very significant, if we right and BTC returns later to 38K, finally to complete it... Take care. S.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
38k?Morning folks, So, market is confirming our suggestion of deeper retracement, and now price takes more evident shape of H&S pattern on 4H chart. It is very comfortable to deal with it as you definitely know the target and invalidation point. Potentially pattern has the target at 38K - around next major daily Fib support area. So, for long entry you have to wait either H&S failure - if price jumps above the right arm's top or its completion around 38K. Bears could consider short entry around minor resistance levels with stops above the right arm's top - this is classic way to deal with it. Another reason why we suggest that market could proceed to 38K, or at least try to challenge recent lows is bullish pattern on Dollar Index, so BTC probably remains under pressure this week.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
6
Deeper retracement is not cancelled yetMorning folks, So, market has changed the shape a bit and we haven't got the butterfly that we've discussed last time, but it doesn't mean that deeper retracement will not happen. In fact, we have bearish reversal bar on weekly chart and, as a rule - they have continuation. That's why despite that market forms upside AB-CD instead of butterfly, but 2nd leg down could start from 59K resistance area. Besides, now we have "222" Sell pattern. If we get bearish grabber today on daily chart as well - we could get necessary context for another drop. It means that bears should keep an eye on reversal patterns around 59K area today and avoid any fast upward breakouts. If everything goes smooth and market forms bearish pattern on top - it is possible to try to go short here. In a case of strong upward action above 5/8 resistance - do not go short, as it means that no 2nd downside leg happens. Conversely, bulls should wait for either strong upward breakout or, have no choice but wait when big daily downside AB=CD pattern will be completed.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Bearish signs are worthy of our attentionGood morning everybody, Current price action makes us think that chances to get some downside continuation are significant. We do not know the way that it takes - it might be just stop grabbing action below recent lows or real downside breakout and action to next daily 38.2K support area. But bearish signs that we have suggest that at least new challenge of current lows should happen. First is overall market sentiment. Despite some deteriorating in US statistics - we see no inspiration as on FX as on Gold market. The same we could say about the cryptos. So, despite that recent factors, including ECB and Fed statements make dollar weaker - this doesn't add points to the rivals. So, markets stand not in very positive mood. Second - in current action we do not see any attempt to play back the drop, no attempt to show the thrust up. It makes us think that market just reacts on strong daily support and oversold area, building an energy for challenge. Price action takes the shape of the pennant and price action shows signs of bearish dynamic pressure. Besides, don't' forget that this week we get CPI, Retail Sales and some other data that seems to be important. This leads us to conclusion that it would be better to wait with taking new long positions for speculative purposes, as we easily could get the downside butterfly to one of the extensions, showing on the chart. Speaking about bearish positions - theoretically it is possible but the problem with the stop placement, as it has to be placed above 47K top that is too far right now. At it makes not very attractive short entry. For accumulation purposes and investing, we think that current level could be considered for some increasing of coins reserves.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
AB-CD down is possibleMorning folks, So, BTC was able to completed only the butterfly at 53K and reversal has started. We suggest that recent sell-off is a technical issue that makes no impact on fundamental background and market sentiment. Still, it perfectly fits to market mechanics that as a rule shows deep retracement after first upward swing, because rest of previous bearish momentum has to be faded. Currently price is forming the pennant that theoretically is bearish continuation pattern. That's why we do not exclude appearing of extended downside AB-CD pattern after minor upward bounce. So, for speculative purposes I would wait a bit more to understand the way of price reaction at current support area. For investing purposes, we suggest that current support area could be used for buying some coins for long-term perspective. If we're correct on second leg down - next level to watch for is 38K. But now we do not have clear signs that 2nd leg down should happen
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
53 and 58KMorning folks, So, NFP was in a row with our expectations which, together with JP Wyoming statement, creates positive background for all dollar rivals, including cryptos. Now market is breaking through 51K resistance area and performance looks strong enough to suggest further upward action. Thus, we do not need to invent something else, 1.27 butterfly is completed but we have next one at 53K and 58K XOP target on 4H chart. 58K BTW agrees with daily/weekly overbought areas. So we suggest that it will be the ceil for current week as well.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
51.64K and maybe 53KGood morning everybody, So, as we've said on Monday - market has got Wyoming positive injection. Daily price action was forming the triangle that now is broken. Still, NFP report stands ahead. Although ADP numbers were 2 times worse but who knows... This is the major concern guys, right now - whether we get just wash& rinse of previous top or we get real upward breakout. The first idea is also important because of existence of 51K AB-CD target on 4H chart, and the fact that 5/8 major resistance is not tested yet. That's why, now we consider potential upside butterfly pattern with first and major reliable target around 51.64K, that hopefully could be tested even before NFP... Next target of 53K is also real, but if it gets support from weaker NFP report. Action above 53-54K is hardly possible this week, as market ceil to weekly Overbought area.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Two ways of retracementMorning folks, Sorry for a bit messy chart but all these lines we use to explain our view. Last time we've talked about possible pullback that would be perfect to consider buying coins for longer term perspective. As on Friday all markets have got injection of positivity from the Fed, the price shape here, on BTC has changed as well. It doesn't deny retracement totally, and price still could reach 45K area in a shape of AB-CD (as it is shown on the chart), but as risky assets is becoming stronger, we need to consider additional scenario that might be formed here. As we have decided to not consider any short positions - recent action has not made any negative impact for us. Recall that we have uncompleted 50.8K AB=CD target on 4H chart and BTC has not touched 51K major Fib resistance as well. Now, on 4H chart price is taking shape of triangle, which makes us think that BTC could try to challenge mentioned levels. Thus, we think that it makes sense to pay attention to 47.5K area as well - here we have "222" Buy potential reversal point, Fib support and lower border of 4H chart triangle. If even we're wrong and BTC will keep dropping further - this is relatively strong area for intraday chart and some minor bounce should happen at the first touch. This bounce has to be used for stop moving to breakeven. This is our idea. Thus, next is up to you - you could try it, or, if you have doubts - wait for larger AB=CD downside pattern. Once market completes it, we take a look what to do next.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Retracement is startedMorning everybody, so, downside reaction on resistance is started. As context stands bullish, we're mostly interested where an how to buy rather than to sell. From that standpoint, first point that it makes sense to consider is 43.5-44K area. Now, based on AB-CD shape on 1H chart we could calculate the targets. First is OP stands around 46K, but taking in consideration the speed of CD leg most probable that it will be passed. Thus, the first one that it makes sense to focus on is 1.618 XOP extension at 43.8K. It is interesting that XOP leads us to potential neckline of greater H&S pattern on 4H chart. But this will the next story... Maybe it will not be formed at all. We'll see. With the Jackson Hole ahead everything is possible... Take care.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten