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All or nothingMorning guys, So, the 1st stage of our trading plan is competed - AB-CD retracement hits the target that agrees with major 5/8 resistance. It means two things. If BTC indeed is bearish - it has to turn down right from here. If it doesn't do it it means that it is not bearish. That's simple. Because Agreement resistance is sufficient argument to turn down any bearish market. Thus, if you intend to go short - here is the moment when you need to make a decision on taking short position. Bulls should wait for one of two things - either completion of downside breakout or failure of current setup. At current moment it is not good situation for taking long position
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Daily bearish engulfing patternMorning guys, We still follow our scenario with daily false upside breakout and suggest that BTC could show deeper retracement, somewhere to 8.8-8.9K area. We have two scenarios how this action could start and one of them is on the chart. Now price stands in upside AB-CD that agrees with major 5/8 Fib level around 9.9. This is the point where BTC could turn down and start second leg of downside action. Alternatively, if BTC turns down right here - we get 4H Butterfly "Buy" with approximately the same target.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
Classic tricks of market makersGreetings everybody, Well, guys, it is "big surprise" of BTC price action in headlines today, but, those who trade on classic markets could say only one thing "Welcome to exchange-traded markets". BTC, once exchanges added them in trading list, starts to show the same classic tricks of market makers that calls "Stop grabbing". In DiNapoli terms it calls "wash *& rinse". As a result, on daily chart we have grabbed stops (overall loss is around $350 Mln.), failure breakout and good engulfing pattern. As a rule, it leads to the action that you can see on the chart - levels might be different, but overall shape should stand the same. Thus, downside action should take the shape of some AB=CD pattern and reach 8.5-8.8K level, depends on the depth of current pullback. In a longer-term, it could put the foundation of deeper retracement on the daily chart...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
We keep our bullish view on BTCMorning guys, Although we correctly have estimated the direction but missed with the patterns a bit - neither 3-Drive nor reverse H&S have been formed and upside action started from simple butterfly "Buy" . But the probability has the tails... Anyway, this is tactical question, making no changes to the core - overall sentiment on the market stands bullish and we keep our major pattern valid - daily upside butterfly with the nearest target around 10.5-10.6K level. Until market stands above 8K area we could consider taking of long positions. Currently, as we also have triangle on 4H chart - it would be nice if BTC shows pullback somewhere to 9050 major support area, forming "222" Buy". That would be just perfect. But H&S pattern looks weak and we can't totally deny idea of immediate upward action right from K-support of 9.3K, i.e. the neckline of the pattern. Thus, it would be better to split entry in two parts 30/70 and consider taking of small position around neckline as well. It seems that previous top around 10K area should be challenged soon.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
Still watching for 8500$Greeting everybody, Last time we've talked about the point where upside action potentially could start and I said - 8.5K due to some reasons that we've specified last time. Now I could confirm the same - another minor drop really could happen before reversal. As you can see on the chart, we have two side-by-side butterflies that together create perfect 3-Drive "Buy" pattern. We think that is should become the major technical tool here and background of potential upside reversal. Thus - no shorts, for longs - either wait for drop to 8.5K or you could buy right now but stops anyway should be below 8.40-8.5K. Also recently we've prepared fundamental analysis of BTC - now we clear understand what impact of the Halving was on the market and how we should treat drop in a Hash rate and what is going on in the mining sphere and on the market in general. You could read it on our FPA site in my Blog. A usual - the whole video FPA site as well.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Catching the wingMorning everybody, We continue our journey with potential upside butterfly pattern on 4H chart and trying to catch the starting point of the right wing. On Friday we've called to buy around 9K area, once XOP has been completed, promising bounce at least to 9.2K. Market is done to 9.3K but then has dropped again back to the same 5/8 Fib support. There are some moments exist that worry us a bit, for example dropping of the hash rate, but technically - it is too early to cancel bullish scenario. Overall downside action is slow, market even has not reached major daily 3/8 Fib support around 7.8K, so, retracement is really very small. Thus, we are not ready yet totally deny upside scenario. It means that we continue to do the same - estimate acceptable points where it is relatively safe to go long until price stands above 8K area. On 1H chart we have butterfly in progress and coming MACD divergence. Potentially this is bullish pattern, but the one thing that I do not like is acceleration to the butterfly target. It means that is more probable that price will drop to 1.618 butterfly target around 8.5K. This is next level to consider long entry. Entry technique is the same - once position is opened, move stops to breakeven as soon as possible. Minimal upside reaction again should be 150-200$. Then we will see what will happen.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
7.9-8.1 invalidation pointMorning guys, Well BTC was not able to complete our cup pattern, so we were out at breakeven. But it doesn't mean that bullish scenario is failed. Invalidation point is 7.9-8.1 level. 7.9K stands for daily K-support, while 8.1 is a butterfly vital bottom. Dropping below these levels BTC breaks the tendency of higher lows and this means the reversal. Until this happens - BTC keeps chances on upside continuation. Now price stands at 5/8 Fib level and Agreement area. If you take a look at 1H chart you'll see pretty nice engulfing pattern which is also puny "222' Buy. It suggests upside bounce at least to 9.2 area, so you could try to buy with stops against the lows and then move to breakeven. If BTC is not able start upward action right from here, then it drops to 7.9-8.1 area and it will be decisive. As usual - detailed analysis in the video on forexpeacearmy website.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
10.6?Morning folks, So, let's see what do we have today... Please combine this chart with our Cup&handle pattern from previous update. We have bullish context by far. But what I do not like. I do not like dropping of the hash rate and I do not like exhausting of optimism on stock market too fast. Just on Monday we've got news on vaccine and everybody were happy, but now this euphoria is blowing away. It means that right now we hardly could count on extended and stable upside trend. More probable is Wash & Rinse of previous tops on daily chart. For example we could get this butterfly with minimum target around 10.60K. But, this level is above daily tops, where more stops stand. This could push price higher, even to 1.618 butterfly target. So, just keep nose to the wind. We're in on handle's bottom accurately. Now we could move stops to breakeven. Our invalidation point is 9.5K lows and cup's bottom as well. Thus, bulls could keep positions while our vital area holds with minimum target around 10.6K. Bears have nothing to do by far. Do not use too extended upside targets by far. Analysis of all time frames in video on FPA website, as usual. Take care, S.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4
It is always tea timeMorning folks, Do not want to bore you with long speeches. Market keeps bullish context - H&S at 4H chart is cancelled, and only minimal reaction on our "222" Sell here has followed - just 3/8 retracement. Currently bullish cup is forming near the top, suggesting upside action. May be it will not become a rally continuation but at least stops should be grabbed above the top. Still, foundation of bullish setup is fragile - Hash rate starts dropping, retracement on stock is widely expected as market that totally has lost touch to reality. That's why try to follow near standing targets, move stops to b/e asap, etc. For the bulls - wait for the handle around 5/8 support ~9.5K area with stops below the cup. Alternatively - you could use Stop "Buy" order around 10035$ level, we've talked about it already. Or - combine these two ways. For the bears - nothing to do by far. If market will break cup's bottom - then, may be something will be possible. Take care and good luck S.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
8
Demand more market confirmation for any positionMorning folks, hope you're doing well... Well, while on daily chart nothing has seriously changed and BTC keeps chances on 2nd leg of downside retracement, on intraday charts price action differs from "perfect" way and we need to get additional insurance before taking any position. "Perfect" scenario suggests market reversal right around 9.2-9.3K area as it should happen due H&S shape. This is good resistance of AB=CD target agreement with major 5/8 Fib level. But - we do not see this reversal yet. Market currently is coming to the upper range of the area where reversal potentially should happen - this is the top of left arm. Since price action steps out from "perfect" way - bears need more confirmation that market indeed is turning down. It means no "blind" sell just because we're at resistance. Bears should follow two possible ways. First is - drop the time frame more, say to 15 min chart and watch for bearish reversal patterns. Most probable are butterfly or H&S, or their combination. Once you will get it - this should let you to place tight stop, based on the patterns. Second way - wait for reversal and downside action then try to enter on minor pullback. For the bulls not much to do right now - market has to climb above XOP to prove ambitions on upside breakout. In this case you could use Stop "Buy" order around 10-10'050 area. Take care. S.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
5
Retracement trading routine.Morning folks, As our bullish trade is over due completion of AB=CD 10K target - this gives us "222" Sell pattern on daily that suggests at least 30% pullback to ~7.7K. Thus, our first target is K-support area of 7.7-7.85K on daily chart. Downside action is taking the shape of H&S pattern as we've said on Friday (or Thu... don't remember exactly). Thus, for bulls - nothing to do but wait for 7.7K support, or, who knows - H&S failure and rally through 10.2K level. IN this case you could use Stop "Buy" order above this level. As now chances for rally are phantom, let's focus on first, more probable scenario. For the bears... consider 9.15-9.3K area for short entry. This is the level where the top of right arm should be formed. Now it seems that we have "222" Sell around 5/8 Fib resistance, also you could recognize puny reverse H&S here, right at the bottom. Both patterns have approximately the same target. And keep an eye on halving that should happen within 9-10 hrs probably...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Be prepared to pullback/reversalMorning folks, So, our major daily target is hit. Price stands at daily major 5/8 Fib resistance level, our 4H AB=CD target is completed as well. We were considering different ways, how this could happen, talked on retracement first, then talked on immediate upside action and using Stop "Buy" order above 9.2K area - all these stuff is tactic minor nuances. Major thing is market hits primary target before NFP release. It makes overall task more simple. On 4H chart we have bearish signs. Upward action has been completed by butterfly, MACD divergence is growing here and potentially we could get reverse H&S pattern. It means that we have to manage our longs somehow - book it totally, or, at least book it partially and tight stops. Do something. In current situation technical picture suggests no new longs by far. Shorts are possible. But, we're in NFP release turmoil guys. Our bets today mostly looks like gambling. Although I suggest that NFP should be bad, as gold, EUR shows bullish background and stocks should be hurt today. But nobody could tell it definitely. Thus, most conservative approach is close your longs and wait for the next week. Good luck to everybody today.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
5
Be aware of NFP dataMorning folks, BTC accurately keeps bullish context by far, forming nice pennant pattern on daily and keeps chances on reaching our next 10K target. Halving is postponed on 12th of May, so it stands outside of this week. It means that on this week we have only single disturb - NFP release. Our fundamental analysis shows that BTC/Stocks correlation stands near 80-90% on short-term charts and this makes overall situation tricky. As you know, general expectations on NFP numbers is "-20 Mln" jobs. This is 50 times greater than any worst numbers in the history. Usually negative numbers stands for -450-500K. Releasing of -20Mln could hurt stocks and put them in despair condition. This is the reason why I'm still worry and keep on the table BTC collapse. Besides, on weekly bearish setup is not cancelled totally. So, what we could do. If you could wait - it would be better to not trade this week. If you can't stay aside - the better way, IMO is to use Stop "Buy" order somewhere above 9.2K area. In this case, you get some chances at least, to miss fill, if NFP will be bad. In a case of so-so NFP, we could get common scenario of retracement to the same levels that we've pointed previously in a way of butterfly first...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
Still watching for pullbackMorning folks, hope you're doing well... So, setup today is mostly the same as last time. We're watching for long entry on BTC. First level is 8130 - AB=CD target that agrees with first 3/8 Fib support, second level is K-support around 7.5-7.8 area. Two moments to consider this week. Halving is coming and it should happen within few days. Market stands in standby mode to react. Second - BTC-stocks correlation stands near 100% now. S&P has record bearish positions now and stocks prepares to pullback. It means that there are good chances to see 7.5-7.8K area this week. Thus, if you use scale-in entry, it makes sense to hold 70% till K-support area.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
10K area is next stopMorning folks, So, here is we get major signal that we've discussed - straight breakout of major 8K resistance area in classic bullish manner. Now area to 10K level is open as we do not have any strong resistance levels till that level. At the same time, market is overbought on daily and we expect slower pace of upside action. Some pullback is also possible, but we consider only near stand levels. In current environment BTC should not show too deep retracement. Any retracement should be above 8K broken level, and more probable this is nearest Fib support on the chart. Our AB-CD pattern has the target that agrees with major daily/weekly 5/8 Fib resistance level. Also be aware of resistance on stock market. Now as DAX as S&P stands at major 5/8 resistance level. Our fundamental analysis shows strong correlation to the stock. (actually there was strong rally yesterday on stocks as well). Don't be upset if you've missed to catch this rally - there will be pullback and there will be chance to buy at good price.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
7
Upward trade is over.Morning everybody, Slowly but stubbornly - we're at the target. Yes, it is still 100-200$ room for market flirting around it, but in general, in a scale of weekly chart - upward action is done. And this week is exceptionally important for us. Because whatever direction will be - it will be long term. If market fails to break 8K area up, it continues action with our major weekly scenario and 3.3K target. If, instead it breaks 8K area up - it might be major reversal and start of new upside trend. 8K area is major K-resistance, including all time 3/8 Fib level. In short-term it means to things. First is - if you keep longs, tight stops. BTC could show 1.618 butterfly and hit 8K level, but I'm no sure that it definitely will happen, as major target are done. So think about booking the result. Second, you could consider short entry using the same butterfly as a background pattern with stops above 8.2K area. It is relatively safe to do this, because of level's strength. If later upside breakout will happen - at first touch, some technical respect should follow. This pullback will let you to move stop to breakeven. That's being said - we gradually close our long positions that we've opened through this long-term action. Second - we consider short entry with stops above 8.2K area.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
8
If we will not go up...Morning guys, As our entry levels have been hit perfectly, now we in positive zone with b/e stops, I hope... It is nothing to do with the position by far. We still keep our scenario with 7.8-8.0K target - just take a look at recent update with 4H chart that we've placed here. The chart that I show here for the case, if our major scenario will fizzle. Understand this update correctly - this is not the mind change, this is the alternative scenario if BTC will not go up with our major scenario. In this case we could get deeper AB=CD retracement to ~6.25K area. But it cares nothing bad to you as our positions are already protected by riskless stops.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Consider 6.8 - 7K levels for long entryMorning guys, Just minor update today. Currently no signs of bearish reversal exists yet, so... as market turns up again, we keep our target of 7.8-8.0 level intact and suggest that you could consider one of Fib support levels for long entry against 6.5 lows. Unfortunately i can't show it here, but our major target could be finalized by butterfly "Sell" pattern on 4H chart. And retracement, that we suggest, should become the right wing of this pattern. If want to see it - watch my BTC video on FPA site. Good luck.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Bullish trade continuesMorning everybody, here is just minor update. (it is really tough task to show the whole setup here). In two words - we have reaction on 1st our target, H&S AB=CD at 6.45K. This was our first point where we should have taken 30% of our trading position, right? Rest 70% we have intended to take in a case if H&S will be totally completed at 6.0K area. Now, if you've bought here - move stops to breakeven. If not - you could consider small reverse H&S pattern and try to buy around the right arm of 6.7 K level. All other points of our trading plan are the same. If BTC still will drop to 6.0K we consider long trade again. If it goes directly to our 7.8-8.0K target right now - all the better.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
10
Too early to deny upside tendencyMorning folks, A lot of questions on reversal on BTC... In two words, in my humble opinion it is too early to say that upside tendency is over. There are a lot of reasons for that. I prefer you to watch our video - there I give detailed explanation. Here I would say that current drop is even smaller than harmonic retracement on daily chart. Market still stands above former strong 6.4K daily resistance. And the only thing that I'm worry about is tight relation of BTC to Stocks. If you take a look at recent CFTC report on S&P speculative positions - you'll see that it has shown huge collapse on Friday and turned bearish. This is worry me a bit... On 4H chart we have minor 1.27 H&S pattern and currently it seems that it could be used for taking long position as our previous longs have been closed by trailing stops once 7.5K target has been hit. H&S has two targets. First one is around 6.5K and agrees with minor 3/8 Fib support, second is around 6K and agrees with strong K-support area. Thus they could be used for position taking in 30/70 ratio. For the bears I do not see something really valuable by far. Bears should wait either long-term bearish tendency continuation if 6K level will be broken, or appearing of greater H&S pattern in case of inability of the market to go to our major XOP target.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
7
7.5 and 8KGreetings everybody, BTC keeps our tactical bullish setup pretty nice by far. Despite we still think that this is just a pullback in a longer-term, it still could climb a bit higher. As we've said previously, next target is 8K area - major 5/8 Fib resistance on daily chart and our 1.618 AB-CD target on 4H chart. Still we have another setup on 1H chart as well, just recall our H&S pattern that we were following last week. Its first target, 7K is hit, next one is ultimate H&S target at 7.4-7.5 area. Thus, it is possible to keep tactical longs, just do not forget to tight stops as well. Currently we have two objective points - 7.4 and next one is 7.8-8K
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3