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Only small retracements now...Morning guys, So, setup that we've discussed yesterday is done, but it seems that not everybody were in time to come aboard. Today we discuss how to join the rally. But first about targets... now market stands at minor target - 1.27 extension of our "BC" leg, next one will be 1.618 extension around 9.7K, and finally, major destination point is 10.5K - AB=CD target here. As BTC has broken major daily resistance area, and major retracement (which is BC) leg is done already - we do not have any reasons to count on deep retracement again. BTC is not at Overbought as well. Thus, taking '2+2" it seems that most proper level to consider is previous top and minor 3/8 Fib support on 1H chart around 9.2$. Watch for minor "222" Buy around it. BTC keeps bullish context.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Fear shifts the shapeMorning everybody, So, market was frightened a bit yesterday by virus news, as well as other markets across the board and shows different shape. Although it is indeed has tested 9K top again but shape has changed drastically and we haven't got expected H&S pattern. Now we need to change the trading plan. The breakout of daily K-resistance area @ 9K has vital meaning for short-term BTC performance. And our task is try to join this party with minimal risk. Here is what we offer. First, and most simple way to act is to use Stop "Buy" order above daily K-area. Once market will break it, stops will be triggered and you will be on ride somewhere around 9.2-9.3K area. Next target will be 10-10.5K level. Second way is more difficult but it also provides better entry price. We talk on possible momentum trade on 1H chart. Virus news have scared society and it let BTC to show solid rally yesterday with good upside momentum. Now we need to wait for moderate pullback. Our favorite level here is K-support around the same 8.8K area. Here we could consider long entry. The only must condition is to move stops to breakeven when BTC starts to show upside action from this area. Both scenarios reduce risk but have their own adv. and disadv.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
from 8.8 to 8.5$ but what's next?Morning guys, Today's analysis is a bit more sophisticated because we have to consider more scenarios for the market and specify criteria of direction. Our first step is done perfectly. BTC indeed has reached predefined Confluence support area and turned up from it. Now, we have two patterns for estimation upside target. First is AB-CD pattern, which points on 8727$ target and Double Bottom shape which, in turn, suggests that target should be in Agreement with major 5/8 resistance around 8.8K. It means that most probable destination point is the range between these two targets. Next stage should follow down as we just can't miss obvious H&S shape here. Besides 8.8K area is potential neckline of the pattern. Supposedly the right arm bottom should be around 8.5K$. And this will be "Point of clarity" as I call it. Because this is invalidation point for H&S. If market will break it down - be prepared to drop below the "head" and larger downside AB=CD on 4H chart. If market will hold there, I mean around 8.5K - upward action will be re-established, at least BTC has to challenge daily resistance again of 9-9.5K area. Plan your trade accordingly. For instance, to make long entry consider 8.5K - the bottom of the right arm. Bears could think either on neckline resistance or on stop "Sell" order somewhere below right arm but above the Head bottom.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Still waiting for 8150-8250 major support areaMorning guys, The whole week BTC stands inside the range of sell-off candle. And in current condition we follow to the odds. They, in turn, suggest two-leg, compound retracement, rather than "V" shape of retracement. Right now price takes rectangle shape, and it keeps valid as our former H&S suggestion as possible direct downside breakout. This background now is suitable for scalp traders only. Rising back to 8.9-8.95K will the right arm of our H&S pattern and potential situation to consider bearish position, while right now as market is coiling around the "neckline" this is potential situation for scalp long position (although it is more risky). Daily traders have nothing to do by far, as their aim is 8150-8250 major K-support area and potential "222" Buy pattern for taking the long position.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
To 8.9K then to 8.1K ?Morning guys, BTC still has made 1.618 H&S pattern - which is classical, compares to 1.27... Anyway this makes no impact on our trading plan as we mostly were waiting for reaction on major daily resistance area. Now this reaction has started. All that we need to do is to adjust shape of H&S pattern a bit. As a result, it suggests upward action first to ~8.9K area where the top of right arm should be formed and then action to 8.1K in a way of AB=CD pattern. 8.1K is also strong support area on 4H chart. Potentially it is suitable to consider long entry... but only potentially. Thus, depending on your trading style - scalptraders could search chances to Sell around 8.9K against the Head's top with 8.1K target while daily traders should sit on the hands until either H&S failure and upside rally or, reaching of 8.1 K area...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
To 7880 and then up to 8925$Morning guys, Our former setup was done accurately. Indeed BTC has re-tested the neckline of daily pattern and was able to hold above it. Current consolidation has bullish sentiment and we suggest that butterfly pattern could be formed here, because it's target coincides with daily H&S final destination and major 5/8 Fib resistance level of 8925$. Still we have reasons to suggest that upside action of right wing should start a bit lower, somewhere around 7880$ level. The bottom of the butterfly is crucial area for this setup. Because it is not just about butterfly, but about H&S as well. If BTC will drop below 7.7K - it will drop below the neckline which will be bad sign and mostly erase upside scenario. That's being said, while BTC stands above 7.7 lows we keep an eye on 7880$ level as potential area where market could reverse up. Final destination is 8925$.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Next H&S target is 8.9K areaMorning guys, the pullback that we've discussed last time, stands under way. Although, for the truth sake it has started not from our OP 8150 target but from 8.4K level which is daily 5/8 Fib resistance. As we have good upside pace, tail closed candles, market is not at overbought - we do not expect deep retracement right now. Other words - upside action could be re-established from current level which is actually 1H K-support Since there are no reasons to suggest that H&S scenario is over - we keep an eye on next destination point which is 8.9K... If you prefer conservative approach and need more protection - wait for clear bullish patterns around 1H support levels - current K-support area and next one around 7.6K if maret will get there.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
8000-8145$ to tight stops and book some profitMorning guys, Just minor update. BTC is approaching to our first target - H&S AB=CD pattern, based on the head and the shoulder. It stands at 8145$. Be careful around 8K area, because this is also daily 3/8 Fib resistance. So, some turbulence could appear around and reaching of the target could be choppy. Once target will be hit - be prepared to downside pullback. Ultimate target of H&S should be around 8.9K, which agrees with another daily Fib resistance. But whether BTC will go there or not we could say only when we see how market will react on first target...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Additional 7.4K area for long entryMorning guys, It is no need to make big update today as our major pattern is valid, BTC gradual creeps to the neckline and we keep an eye on its breakout. Those who has missed our major entry but still consider taking of long position could think about 7.4K area on 1H chart. Touching of neckline of daily reverse H&S right before its breakout hardly will trigger deep retracement, but some minor pullback is possible. And this minor pullback could be right to 7.4K - combination of two Fib levels from different swings (DiNapoli calls it as Confluence support). If we will get AB-CD type retracement there and small "222" Buy - all the better. That's all that we would like to add today. Let's see what will happen with our H&S pattern...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Riding on the H&S patternMorning guys, Hope you're well after the Holidays. So - our AB-CD downside retracement to 6.9K area is done, giving us "222" Buy on 4H chart, which is actually a part of daily H&S pattern. Currently our task is clear - 6.9K is a bottom of the right arm and BTC has to hold it - to keep bullish scenario valid. Thus, if you have taken long position at 6.9K - now you could move stop to breakeven and watch the movie. Based on H&S our target is 8.3-8.4K area - near major daily 5/8 Fib resistance level. If you have missed long entry - today you could consider 7.1K 1H support area to do this. Conversely, if H&S will fail - it means big failure of bullish context on daily/weekly basis and downside continuation, somewhere in 4K area. But our sentiment analysis of the market tells that chances on this scenario are not very high... Detailed analysis you could watch in the video on our website.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4
Still watching for 6850-6900 areaGood morning, Last time we consider downside AB-CD pattern a bit different shape but with the same target. As BC leg becomes more extended, we change the shape of the pattern a bit, but still watching for the same 6850-6900$ area. From technical point of view it creates comfortable level for long entry because of 5/8 Fib support, AB-CD target. Besides, once AB-CD will be completed we will get "222" Buy" pattern in place and right bottom of reverse H&S pattern on daily chart.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
6850$ to consider long entryMorning guys, As we've suggested upside bounce from 3/8 support was really great, and there was minor reverse H&S formed but it has not turned to real upside continuation, as price of BTC has dropped back to the level. It makes us think that we would better to consider for long entry Agreement of AB-CD target and major 5/8 support at 6850-6900$ area. This level, by the way could become the right bottom of daily reverse H&S pattern. Also we keep our experiment with Hash Ribbon Indicator that shows mining capitulation periods based on Hash rate level. Today it gives "buy" signal. You can see it in our video on FPA website. If our suggestion is correct, then downside AB-CD action should give us "222" Buy pattern on daily as well.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
Retracement to 7.2-7.3$ areaMorning guys, Last week I was confused a bit by price action, as Bitcoin has shown behavior absolutely irrational in relation to our daily major XOP target. This was a reason why we've suggested a bit deeper drop and appearing of butterfly pattern, thinking that XOP is not done yet. As I found out - Coinbase provides not accurate quotes which leads to unproper aplication of technical tools, so I've turned to Bitfinex and by its quotes our XOP has been completed even on first downside spike two weeks ago... As a result, on Friday, market has hit our intraday 4H target of 6.5K area, grabbing stops below recent lows and jumped up. Now we do not exclude appearing of double bottom on daily chart. Its potential target stands around 8.6-8.9 - major daily 5/8 resistance area. But, we will go step by step. As first upside action is done and now market stands at 3/8 daily resistance level, today we expect pullback to 7.2-7.3K area
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
6200-6300$ area first...Morning guys, As we've said in last report - 6800 support will be vital for direction of the market. BTC has failed the test and dropped below AB-CD target and major 5/8 support area. It means that odds suggest further downside action. Now, we consider daily butterfly and our untouched XOP target - this is approximately 6200-6350 area. Then we will see what will happen there. If reaction again will be weak, it gives us reasons to consider weekly AB=CD with 4K destination point.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Watching for 3-Drive progressMorning guys, This update is better to combine with previous one, as here we discuss just the final moment of our setup. Last week, we said, that 6940 area is the one that will be very important for BTC. Breaking of this level down will open road below daily lows while upside bounce could lead not just to simple retracement but, ultimately to extended upside action. At the same time, if you have bullish view and search setup for long entry - here is the one to consider. 6940 is Agreement of our downside AB=CD target and 5/8 Fib support, now we have 3-Drive "Buy" around as well. All this stuff makes it interesting for taking long position. If even market will stay bearish, it should show some pullback out of this level at first touch. This lets us to move stops to breakeven and significantly decrease chances to get loss.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
7000 is a key point to considerMorning guys, Price action is lazy on BTC market this week. It seems that ivestors are too busy with classic FX, stock and gold markets as a lot of trading setups are forming there right now. Anyway, let's see what we could get here in nearest time. Our triangle indeed has been broken down, but action stands slow, which tells that it is more the retracement of recent upside swing than downside continuation. As a result we could consider potential "222" Buy" pattern around major 7K Fib support. This level set next direction, that's why - bulls could consider long entry around 6850-7000$ with potential target around 8.3-8.5K based on "222" Buy pattern. bears have to wait either for breakout of mentioned area down or wait until upside target 8.3-8.5K will be reached. It would be better to not anticipate the breakout of this level and do not take short position in advance.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
BTC UpdateMorning guys, BTC is forming two inside weeks in a row which makes us gravitate more to bearish scenario. Usually, markets shows fast reversal when stops are grabbed below recent lows. But now it is a bit different case. Market shows sideways action, which could be the sign that we're just at retracement. On daily chart we also have bearish dynamic pressure and our major 6378$ target on daily chart for a few bucks but has not been completed. In general BTC is forming triangle consolidation which keeps chances for both directions. Still, taking in consideration things above, we gravitate more to bearish view, as I said, and possible butterfly "Buy" pattern with 6150 target. If you have bullish view, it would be better to wait for upside breakout of trianlge and recent tops. In this case butterfly will be cancelled.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
6900$ is to considerMorning guys, Situation stands a bit tricky. Despite our 3-Drive "Buy" setup has worked perfect - following reaction with fast drop mixes the context and doesn't provide clear answer what we should do and in what direction trade. We have as bullish as bearish patterns in place. Bullish is the DiNapoli grabber that suggests upside action above recent top. It seems hardly possible but take a look at price action in circle - there was the same "Evening star" and grabber after it, which pushed price higher. Bearish sign - is Evening star itself, which suggests downside drop. In current situation I would consider large downside AB=CD pattern to 6860-6900 area and possible butterfly "Buy" that could be formed here. If BTC will hold above major 5/8 Fib support and formed both patterns - this will be sufficient context to make attempt to buy. Conversely, bears should wait for downside breakout of all this stuff. In this case we could get large daily downside butterfly...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
7040-7060 potential "Buy" areaMorning guys, Our short-term trading plan is focused on major 5/8 Fib support, which should be reached by our view. This stuff we've discussed yesterday. Now we have new details here, on 1H chart and think that BTC is forming 3-Drive "Buy" pattern, which agrees with our major support level. Thus, bulls could consider long entry around 7040-7060 area. As soon as (and if) market will show first response to support - don't forget to tight stops at breakeven. Bears probably should sit on the hands by far and be patient, as they need downside breakout of the major support, which suggests 3-Drive failure.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
7000 is the key levelMorning guys, Indeed, market has made an attempt to climb higher, but was not able to reach our XOP target around 8.3K area and daily retracement (aka B&B "Sell) has started. The minimal target of this retracement is 7K - major 5/8 Fib support level. This level has special role in short-term perspective. Potentially, this level is the one that bulls should consider for long entry. At first touch theoretically it should provide minimal protection and price response which will be enough to move stops to breakeven. Holding above 7K will make possible large upside AB=CD pattern to ~8.5K area. Our H&S pattern is not valid any more as price first - has reached minimal target, second - dropped now below neckline. If this level will be broken, I mean 7K - BTC will drop back to the "A" point and challenge recent lows. So, this level is important for bears as well. Right now we do not see any valuable bearish setups...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Riding on retracementMorning guys, Today situation stands a bit more difficult and gives chances to go in both directions. Yes, yesterday's trade was good, but let's not fall in euphoria as there were setups when I was totally wrong :) As you understand this is all about probability. It is too much to write, and it would be better if you watch the video, but I'll try to to keep it short here. Now we stand at daily 3/8 resistance. Potentially situation is suitable for the trade that could reach at least 6960 5/8 Fib support. But the problem is - we do not know exactly whether it will start or not, because the point where it could start differs. That's why we have to keep an eye on market reaction in this resistance. If price will stuck between neckline and strong 7170-7235 Support area - BTC will keep chance to proceed higher to XOP target which is ultimate H&S destination point - 8230$. If this level will be broken - be prepared to drop at least to 6960, but ultimately below recent lows. Depending on your view, you could take following trades: For bulls - grab profit on recent trade. If you do not want to close - move stop higher, at least below 7170 level. Watch for entry around 7300-7350 with stops below 7170. For bears - you could try to go short with initial stop above the recent top, but move stops to breakeven as soon as possible when market will extend retracement. Neckline should be re-tested, I suppose. Then whatch what will happen around 7.2-7.3 area. If market will not break it down - close the trade or out at breakeven stop. In general upside momentum recently was not bad, and chances on upside continuation exist.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten