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Few dry numbersMorning guys, So, our daily XOP 6.3K target mostly is hit as well. This is vital area for long-term BTC perspective. If market will not able to hold above 6.3-7.2K Agreement area (agreement of 6.3 target and major 5/8 Fib support) - it turns to downtrend on weekly. So: Drop below 6.3 and moving toward 6K will mean that we're going to 4.2K Drop below 4.2K will lead us to ultimate all time target around 1.8-2K If price will able to hold above 6.3-7.2K - BTC will keep chances on upside continuation but it needs some tome to wait when clear bullish patterns will be formed. In short-term (in few hours), bull scalpers could try to take long position around 6.3K area, because at least minor pullback should happen, I suppose. Move stops at breakeven as soon as possible. Use 4H butterfly "Buy" for this purpose. Bears that do not have any position right now should do nothing - wait for pullback.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Watching deeper...Morning guys, Two days ago we've said that while BTC shows no reaction on relatively strong OP target of 4H AB-CD pattern - it means that it will go to XOP around 7.3K. Now this destination mostly is done. We do not have any other targets on intraday chart and could take a look at broader picture, which is daily time frame. Here we have old target that we've specified few months ago which is also XOP but from daily AB-CD pattern and it stands around 6.4K area. Recent drop is important not because it has reached 7.3 level but because It has erased recent rally, which makes strong bearish effect as technically as pshychologically. Now we will not look too deep, but focus on nearstanding destination which is our XOP target. Also this target agrees with lower border of the channel and 1.27 extension down of Mr. Xi rally. Thus, if BTC will show some minor upside reaction on 4H XOP target - we could get 1.27 Butterfly "Buy" here. In current circumstances we do not see any reasons to go long. If you would like to take new shorts - wait for upside pullback and bearish patterns (say, "222" Sell") on 1H chart
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Moment come - nothing has happenedMorning guys, Market finally has hit our OP target. Last time we've talked about signs that market has to show, if it is really bullish. They were suggesting upside reaction on combination of 5/8 Fib support and OP target. Conversely, no reaction and drop below OP we've agreed to treat as bearish sign. Thus, you could make conclusion by yourself as overall picture is rather clear by our view. BTC shows no reaction on OP + 5/8 Fib level target and opens road to the lows where we have next XOP target. Drop to XOP could trigger chain reaction of breakouts as reaching of XOP suggests erasing of Mr. Xi's rally. Which, in turn, open road to daily $6.35K target. Once Xi rally has happened - we've called to not fall in euphoria but wait and see. Time tests any politician statement (recall Trump, for instance) and BTC has failed this test. Maybe situation will change, but now we do not see any bullish signs - no patterns, no bullish performance, positive reaction on support, nothing...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Almost there...Morning everybody, So, market follows to our suggestion of more extended downside action and we gradually is coming to culmination point - 8325 major AB=CD target, which stands slightly below major 5/8 Support area. This level is crucial for short-term term direction, because bullish market should turn up from there as technical support of Fib + target is strong enough. Conversely, drop below the target without any response tells us that something is wrong with bullish sentiment. Based on this simple logic bulls could watch for upside reversal patterns here (such as a butterfly that we've put here). Once any will be formed - it is possible to make attempt to buy. Stop should be placed by the pattern. Bears should watch for opposite thing - downside breakout of 8.3 K area and erasing of bullish setup. In this case chances on total reversing of the Xi rally will be significantly higher.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Minor update Morning guys, Here is the situation when details are important. Today we focus on short-term situation. As you can see on the chart our secondary AB=CD pattern is completed, while primary AB-CD (red letters) is not yet. Its OP target stands around 8.3K area. So, I would ask you - how do you think, whether it will be completed, or not. And where bull scalpers should consider long entry here? Here is my suggestion... Take a look that we have downside action, while MACD trend shows up. This is the situation that called as "bearish dynamic pressure" by DiNapoli framework. In this situation odds suggest the new lows, at least. And it makes me think that major OP target probably will be reached. Hence, if you consider long entry - wait a bit more, at least until OP will be hit.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
8.3-8.5K short-term vital areaMorning folks, BTC gradually is coming to the target that we've specified last week. In fact here we have two major AB-CD's but their targets stand relatively close to each other. Top AB-CD (red letters) has OP target around 8.3K area, slightly below major 5/8 Fib support, while another AB-CD pattern has OP target precisely at the level. This level is very important, because it will act like a test. If BTC indeed stands in bullish mode, and Xi rally is real upside reversal - price should not erase this rally. Thus, breakout of 8.3K area and drop back to 7.2K lows could put bullish perspective under question and open road to 2K major target on weekly chart. But this is long-term story... So, what we could do in short term. If you have bullish view and search chance to go long - this 8.3-8.5K area is the one that you could consider. But you have to control two things. First is - you have to avoid long entry if nasty black candle will be formed, and this level will be broken by some fast action. Second - once you take long position, move stop to breaven as soon as possible. Because this is "test" level and we do not know what will happen. It might be just technical respect of support, but not upside rally continuation. Here I also draw a butterfly, just as example of bullish reversal pattern that you could use for entry. It is not the fact, of course, that precisely butterfly will be formed here... but it could... For bears - wait for breakout of this level down. Now it is not time yet to act.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
Let's check the bullishnessMorning guys, Sorry for silence, but actually it was nothing to comment here. The triangle that we've discussed last time indeed was broken up, but this breakout appeared to be very short-term. We need to check the bullish ambitions of the market. Shortly speaking long-term perspective stands in direct relation to Mr. Xi rally. If BTC will able to keep it - it will continue upside action to 15K and above. If not and Xi's rally will be erased - first target is our daily XOP around 6.4K. Thus, in short-term perspective our task is watch for retracement. Now we have different AB-CD patterns here, one of them I draw on the chart. Market is forming "222" Buy pattern. Our checkpoint is ~8.5K 5/8 Support level which agrees with AB=CD target. This is potential level for long entry as well. 30% bounce should happen at least. If BTC will keep falling under 5/8 Fib level, coming back to the bottom and erasing of Mr. Xi rally - this will be bad sign. For those who want to know how all this stuff involved in long-term view - you could watch the video on our website. S.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Upside continuation looks more probable nowGreetings everybody, Well, we put no comments for few days here, just because it was nothing to comment. After revolutionary Mr. Xi words market has frozen in flat action, forming triangle consolidation. While we do not see any superb content in Mr.Xi words that could be worthy of such a rally that we saw - it has happened anyway. Now we suppose that market shows indirect signs of positive mood. The fact that these rally has not been reversed fast and market stands near the top for second week, forming a kind of pennant consolidation makes us think that upward breakout is more probable. We are not sure that it will be major upside reversal yet, but price could move slightly higher on a momentum of Xi rally. The only problem here that we do not have any other patterns/tools except this triangle. Thus, if you intend to take a position (at any direction), now you could do it inside the triangle with placing stop outside of it. Everybody has to think twice, whether this context sufficient for trading...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Xi has made the dayWell, well, well... While we were preparing to market reaction on our major 7200$ support area, which is vital for bullish scenario - Mr. Xi has decided to accelerate this and stepped in with revolutionary speech on Friday. As a result BTC has shown immediate reaction on support. It was so fast that we were not in time to make any preparation... At the same time, guys, I would not be too hurry to make conquest cry. This is just the words, guys. Yes, this is powerful leader of 2nd largerst economy, but he is a politician. I remind you that China ban all cryto exchanges in the country and started miners' retaliation in North China. Besides, just take a look at D. Trump what he has told tomorrow and what he tells today and what chaos his words usually trigger on the markets accross the board. Previously we saw too many brave statements that ended with nothing. These thoughts make me be careful on market's gudgement right now. It means that we should not fall in euphoria and see how durable this rally will be. I'm just worry that it will used for a new big short positions, because, outside of Xi statement - overall sentiment on the market was negative. Thus, we offer two things - in longer-term perspective we need to sit on the hands and see what will happen. Second - while we're waiting for longer picture clarity and if you get an itch to trade BTC anyway, take a look at the chart. This is relatively safe trade that is based on recent momentum. Around 5/8 support of 8.4-8.5K area we will get "222" Buy pattern. Odds suggest at least minor upside bounce out from there, which should let us to turn trade to riskless and move stops to breakeven. If we will be super lucky - rally will continue. This setup is possible only if we will not get miserable collapse to 8.4K area. Right now it is not good area for long entry as BTC stands at major 3/8 Fib resistance and Overbought on daily chart.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Moment of truth is comingMorning folks, So, finally BTC has completed our suggestion. While 7.2K target has not quite reached yet, but I suppose it will be, we need to wait just a little bit. Now market is coming to 6.4-7.2K support area. It will be crucial for long-term perspective of BTC market. 7.2K level is normal weekly retracement and reaction on first upside reversal swing to13K level. But breakout of 7.2K support will not be normal and means the breaking of bullish sentiment. That's why this level is important. What trades we could suggest right now? If you have shorts - you could keep them a bit more, somewhere to 7.1-7.2 area, as we have butterfly on 4H chart that has not been completed yet. If you do not have any positions and trade on daily chart - do nothing as it is too late to sell, but a bit early to buy. For scalp traders - you could wait for some bearish continuation pattern, such as 1H "222" Sell, and try to ride down a bit more to grab additional 300-400$ per coin. Our next major step - attempt to understand market response on vital 7.2K area.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4
MInor updateMorning guys, In last three weeks the trading range has contracted drastically. It can't last too long and sooner rather than later strong action will happen. Our suggestion that it should happened to the downside. We keep the same 6.4-7.2$ target by far and do not see any signs that could force us to change our view. On daily/intraday charts BTC continues action inside the channel. As we have bearish view - we will keep an eye on any hints that suggest downside breakout and the most probable one could be early reversal down, somewhere in the middle of the channel. Now we have 8.3-8.5$ level as nearest target of upside action, where potentially it could happen. Conversely BTC will continue moving to the upper border of the channel which is also K-resistance area and AB=CD target. That's in two words what we're going to do in nearest few days.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Dowside target is completed - all eye on bearish signsMorning everybody, BTC action is slowed so we had have to wait a bit more, when price will reach our target. Finally it has happened. BTC has completed AB=CD target right at low border of daily flag consolidation. As our daily analysis stands the same - its bearish, and we expect downside breakout and reaching of 6.4-7.2 area, here, on 1H chart we need to watch for first signs of weakness. Most common is - early downside reversal and inability of the market to return back to opposite, upper border of the flag around 8.9K area. Once BTC will turn south somewhere in the middle of the channel - this will be early hint of coming downside breakout.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Our suggestion is 7.9K Morning guys, We keep our long-term bearish view on BTC and suggest that it should hit 6.4-7.2K area within few weeks. In shorter term it seems that market is preparing to downside breakout. At least on daily chart we see flat channel, that mostly reminds a flag consolidation. No thrusting action. It seems that downside breakout should happen sooner rather than later. Inside the channel - BTC has failed to breakout our K-resistance area, forming bearish reversal session there. It means that short-term sentiment is bearish and market could reach lower border of consolidation around 7.9K area. Downside action probably will take the shape of AB=CD pattern.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Either right now or around 9-9.2K areaMorning everybody, Last time we've talked about market weakness and possible trigger of bearish scenario if market will break recent lows. But, somehow BTC has found some power to show deeper retracement, which, actually we were waiting last week. Anyway, we consider two levels, where market potentially could start dropping from. First one is where it stands right now - this is K-resistsance, combination of two different Fib levels and few targets - minor AB-CD and big flat AB-CD (not shown here). Still, taking in consideration that BTC shows fast upside action, level could be broken. In this case we follow the target of Double Bottom which agrees with major 5/8 FIb resistsance here of 9.3K area. Besides, on daily chart 9-9.2K level is natural support/resistance zone. Thus, it is most probable candidate to stop upward action.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
7200$ is next targetMorning guys, Last week we've talked about possible deeper retracment on BTC, but to complete it market was have to keep valid intraday 5/8 Fib level. This was a vital area for this tactical scenario. Despite minor respect, this level still has been broken and market now is coming to the 7.6K lows. It means that next stop will be at our major target of 7.2K. Currently we do not have good bullish context as market has broken all potential bullish patterns on intraday charts, showed week reaction on support level. On daily chart we have signs of bearish dynamic pressure - downside action with bullish MACD. Finally we have also Dinapoli bearish grabber, which suggests drop below recent lows. Bears could consider position taking. One of possible solution is to use Stop "sell" order near the 7.7 lows, but not below them.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
80 area is a clue to directionMorning guys, So our last udate setup is done - market has completed retracement to 5/8 Fib support area, forming "222' Buy" pattern and now is the moment of truth, because 8K level is a key to further direction. Downside breakout will significantly diminish chances on upside continuation and, in fact, will mean continuation of major downside trend. While, until BTC stands above it, it still could show deeper upside retracement, in a shape of AB-CD pattern. Its target stands around 8.8 area. Thus depending on your view - you could act accordingly. Bulls could drop time frame more and take long position, as current price lets to place very tight stop, just below major 5/8 level, hoping that upward action will happen. While bears should wait either for completion of 8.8K target or - yes, downside breakout of 8K level. So, Stop "Sell" order could be used.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4
9K could be re-testedMorning guys, We keep our bearish view in longer-term perspective, watching for two destination points - 7.2K first and potentially 6.4K second. But in short-term context, BTC could show upside pullback. Last week we call to not take shorts by far and wait for pullback as market was oversold on daily chart. Now you can see that indeed, it stands flat. We ignore pullback and do not intend to go long, but it should provide us better chances for short entry. Potentially in could re-test major broken 9K level, but only if everything will go positive. Here, on 1H chart we see something that looks like double bottom pattern, but for BTC, to keep bullish chances, price has to hold above major support levels. Now it stands at 3/8 level. Only in this case upside AB=CD will be possible. Conversely, breaking of 5/8 will mean that we're going down on daily chart and pause is over. Thus, our plan - sit on the hands and wait, whether we will get upside AB=CD to 9K where we could consider short entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
6.4-7.2K all time vital areaMorning guys, As BTC has dropped vital 9K area last week now we have only one direction - down. Our suggestion is 6.4K-7.2k area. Here on weekly chart you can see that this is major 5/8 Fib support level and AB=CD target, which creates Agreement with the level. Still, daily/intraday analysis points few targets around 6.4K. Thus, we expand our target range to 6.4-7.2K. For the weekly chart it is allowable. In fact, despite dramatic collapse on last week, BTC shows absolutely normal action in a longer-term perspective. In fact, as soon as market has climbed to 13K area and formed bullish reversal swing - we talked about AB=CD retracement. So, this is normal - AB=CD action after reversal swing. Once it will be completed, we will get "222" Buy pattern here, right? But, this is also tricky moment. Because this is last outpost. Breaking of this area will be very pitty sign and could resurrect major downside AB-CD pattern (at all time high), and its 1.618 target around ~ 2K. But this is ultimately bearish scenario. Meantime, all eyes on 6.4-7.2K area.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Road to 7200-7500 is openedMorning everybody, Well, it is not needed to talk too much. Few days ago we already noticed our doubts on price behavior and that it doesn't correspond to normal price action of bullish market. As we've pormised the breakout of right arm lows of our H&S pattern triggered chain reaction of breakouts, including last major support of 9K area. As a first result of collapse, market hits daily Oversold and completes 1.27 butterfly extension. This is not good moment to go short right now - wait for pullback to get bearish continuation patterns, such as "222" Sell and take short position. Next target is 7200-7500 area - our major bearish scenario. This area includes weekly 5/8 Fib support, AB=CD target and 1.618 butterfly extension. This is major retracement down guys and by its end we should get sweet entry point for major long-term trend. This collapse is not something outstanding - it is normal. We talked about it two months ago. The question only was whether it happens right now or after market will hit 15.3K target. Now we have the clarity...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Pattern reshapingMorning guys, Today we need to adjust our major pattern on 4H chart - reverse H&S, based on recent price action. Price action is the key to sentiment now. On daily chart we see hammer pattern has been formed, which means that buyers have stepped-in when market has dropped a bit. I we would get the drop and price would stand there start coiling around 9K area - this would be quite different tune. This fast return makes us think that BTC still keeps chances on upward action to our upside target. This, in turn, means that our H&S on 4H chart is still valid - we just have to re-shape it a bit, and appoint as a bottom of right arm recent low. Indeed, if you carefully take a look at this H&S pattern, you'll see that both shoulders consist of two lows - major one and additional higher lows. And this structure was formed at both arms. Amazing. Thus, H&S keeps harmony very accurately and this gives us reason to suggest that pattern is still valid. On 1H chart our minor H&S has failed indeed, as we've suggested and price has dropped significantly below the head. Now on 1H chart we have big 222 Buy pattern - which is a right shoulder of 4H pattern.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Chances on upside continuation decreaseMorning guys, We consider just 4H chart today where it is clear that BTC looks heavy. Current price action doesn't correspond to idea of H&S and increases chances on big failure with potential breakout of 9K area that we've discussed previously. Theoretically bullish scenario are possible and not valished yet, but price action looks irrational. Today is also Fed meeting and we expect hawkish surprises from JP. Thus, our call - do not take new longs, if you keep them from last week - move stops to breakeven and grab 30-50% profit.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Hit or Miss #2Morning guys, Actually, we already have done all preparations for possible BTC action, but traditionally we prepare BTC update on Mondays ;) As you can see, you second chance to take long position has worked nice. H&S on hourly chart stands valid. Now if you stand long based either on our 4H H&S pattern or 1H H&S pattern - move stops to breakeven. The price of failure here is extremely high. Collapse of minor H&S pattern here will lead to cosequenses of failings that drop BTC to 7.5K area. I'll show you why. Imagine that this H&S will fail - market will drop below the right arm. Any H&S failure leads to drop below the head. The head of this pattern in fact is a right arm of large H&S on 4H. Drop below the right arm of 4H will lead to drop below the head as well around 9K area. This area has been tested three times and this time will be the last one. Breakout of 9K area will destroy bullish setup and lead market to next support area of 7.5K. This is a kind of nested doll. Thus, if we will see irrational price action, failure of 1H H&S - close longs and consider position reversal...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Good news for the bulls Morning everybody, So, BTC keeps our H&S setup pretty nice - congrats to everybody who has taken long position according to our previous update. I suppose you do not have any questions guys, right now. That's why, today's update is mostly for those who have missed this chance. Unfortunately I can't put everything on single chart, so detailed analysis you could see on our video (link below). I just say that we have bullish grabbers on daily which confirm H&S pattern and let us suggest 11.5K area as a target. Now, how to take position at current moment, when the bottom of right arm already is formed. We could consider 1H chart and here you could recognize another, minor H&S pattern. Most probable that its right arm will be completed around 10.15K area. Thus - watch for "222" Buy around 10.15K Support level (it is also 5/8 Fib support around it) and this will be another chance to go long. Thus, we keep our reverse H&S scenario on 4H chart and suggest that BTC could reach 11.5K area on next week.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten