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9000 then to 7'500?Morning folks, So, our riddle is resolved relatively fast, which mostly confirms our doubts on upside perspective that we talk about in recent month. Now, we're watching for butterfly with 9K destination point and challenging of recent lows. As recent downside action perfectly corresponds to idea of H&S pattern failure and erasing of upside 15.3K upside scenario, it is simultaneously confirms scenario with retracement to 7500K area within few weeks. 9K lows are important for BTC. Breaking through them will erase weekly bullish pattern and provides final confirmation of our daily large AB=CD pattern.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Do not read this, its boringSo, it seems that you still decide to read... Market now stands mostly indecision, although it keeps long-term positive mood and stable demand for BTC exists, but it sharply needs some strong driving factor, that could push market out of wide consolidation where it is right now. We believe that ICE Bakkt launch should become the one. Meantime, BTC in triangle. In short-term perspective it will proceed in direction of breakout. Downside breakout should lead it back to 9K lows, while upside breakout will lead price to 11-11.2K area. Thus, if you do not trade breakouts - wait for it will happen. Those, who trades them could use stop entry orders - Stop "Sell" around 9,85K and Stop "Buy" around 10.5K, I suppose.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Deadly mixMorning guys, Sorry for this mix of patterns on single chart, but we need all of them to explain our view on BTC. So, last week we've said that market could try to show deeper upside AB=CD retracement as it was forming 3-Drive Buy pattern. And indeed that has happened. Although we haven't got 3-Drive, but it was more like skewed H&S pattern, but, anyway, upside bounce started. This AB-CD pattern is shown on the chart by red lines. Once first upside action was done - situation starts to develop in different manner as deep retracement has followed. As a result we've got "222" Sell pattern (green). Appearing of bearish pattern in the middle of CD leg is not common and natural issue. This is risk factor, which significantly increases chance on downside reversal. If this indeed will happen - then we could get downside butterfly to 9K level instead of upside AB=CD. We have two invalidation points. For large butterfly, this is recent ~11K top, for AB-CD - low of B point. These are points where you could hide your stops depending on your expectations and direction of position. IMO, all this butterfly stuff looks a bit bearish and I'm more gravitate to downside reversal, but, I'm not dare to absolute view. Finally, as alternative method, you could use Stop entry orders instead - Stop "Buy" slightly above 11K, Stop "Sell" slightly below 9700 lows...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
All eyes on 9675$Greetings everybody, Let's take a look what we have on BTC today. So, our "222" Setup is done perfect. Now, on longer-term chart we mostly consider large AB=CD downside pattern with potential target around 7.5K. Our task for today is to clarify, whether this downside action is continuation of our bearish swing or not yet. Alternitavely we could get larger daily upside retracement and "222" Sell pattern. It will not destroy our view, but change the shape of the pattern. To do this (I mean clarification), we need to keep an eye on 9675 lows today. On 1H chart you could see that market is forming 3-Drive "Buy" pattern, which potentially is bullish and could become a reversal point of 2nd upside leg. Thus, if market fails to form 3 Drive and drops back to the lows - this will lead ot their challenge and following breakout, as BTC is neither at daily Oversold nor at some Fib support right. Conversely, upside reversal around 9675$ will mean at least to pullback and completion of 3-Drive "Buy" target (which is the top between 2nd and 3rd Drives) or full CD upside leg, as maximum result. Thus depending our your view on the market, you could consider these setups. Bears - drop below 9675 and action back to the lows, bulls - using this 3-Drive "Buy" pattern as a background of the trade.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2 cents on BTC retracementMorning folks, Yesterday we said that it is not sufficient context for taking long position and action of last week makes us worry that downside action could continue. Despite that BTC has climbed slightly higher - we still treat this as retracement, but 11.25K area will be important for us today by some reasons. First is, this is short-term border between retracement and "not retracement", as 11.25K is major 5/8 Fib resistance and AB=CD upside target. Also this is natural resistance area. Depending on what will happen there - we understsand the sentiment. Upside breakout tells that this is not a retracement anymore and suggests upside continuation, while downside reversal will confirm our bearish scenario. Thus, you could make a conlcusion on trading there. Bears could consider short trade, based on "222" Sell pattern. While bulls to keep an eye on upside breakout.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Nothing sweet on BTC yetMorning guys, Today we can't say anything sweet to the bulls. Recent action shape doesn't correspond to idea of upside reversal and mostly reminds retracement due reaching of daily oversold area on Friday. Now, BTC is not at oversold anymore, and on 4H chart we have signs of bearish dynamic pressure as trend stands Bullish by MACD but price action shows no upside action. This leads us to couple thoughts. First is - currently we do not have good background for taking long position. Second - it seems that our scenario with large downside AB=CD 7.5 K retracement is valid.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
80% prob. of downside continuationMorning guys, Now you probably understand why we've paid so much attention yesterday to 10.30K area. This is decisive level for Bitcoin market. And this is the reason why we've said yesterday - do nothing, wait for reaction on this level. Now, if you let me, there are few observations: 1. Market has dropped with acceleration through 5/8 Fib support, ignoreing as 1.618 AB-CD target as larger AB=CD target - both were standing at 10.30K, making an Agreement with Fib level. 2. We see acceleration of downside action, which is bad sign for H&S pattern, especially on the right arm. 3. BTC has hit daily Oversold, and I would suggest that we could see 9K level breakout yesterday, if we wouldn't have Oversold support. The cornerstone of our medium term scenario is weekly bullish grabber and its lows around 9K area. Recent daily action significantly increases chances on 9K level breakout once market will leave Oversold area. Of course we will watch for few days, whether wind will change or not, but miracles aside, and taking "2+2" suggests large daily AB=CD retracement to 7500K now as chances on breakout of 9K area significantly increased. This doesn't change our strategy as it is suggested deep retracement before major wave of long-term rally, but it changes the price shape, how this retracement will happen. Currently we put "on hold" and "under revision" our former view of possible action to 15.30K target as it totally depends on survival of 9K lows, which now seems phantom. Thus, bulls should do nothing today, while bears could use recent downside thrust on 4H chart and watch for DiNapoli B&B "Sell" pattern, but, this is short-term stuff...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
5
Keep up with retracement. Part IIIHey folks, So, It seems that our suggestion was correct and retracement target almost is done. It is no doubts that market will hit 10.3K major 5/8 Fib support. Here, on 1H chart, I show you another, wider AB=CD extension (in addition to the one that we showed last time), but it also has the same target and creates Agreement with major 5/8 Fib level. Why it is a lot of attention to 10.3 area. In fact, this is separate line between bullish and bearish scenarios. If BTC will be able to hold above it and turns up - we will follow to our upside setup that we've discussed this week on weekly time frame with potential target around 15.3$. But, drop below 10.3K and failure to form reverse H&S shape will lead first to drop below the head (recent lows on daily chart) and, potentially deeper large AB=CD retracement. That's why 10.3K level is very important right now. It seems that we should do nothing today, as we need to get the reaction on the level. Hopefully it will be bullish reversal patterns on 1H chart. We will be right back as soon as we will see something valuable. Take care.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Keep up with retracement. Part IIMorning guys, So, retracement that we've discussed last week, down from our daily XOP target is started. Now we turn to second problem - how to estimate its bottom. Just to remind you - we have medium-term bullish view on BTC and suggest that it should reach 15.3K area. Thus, this retracement is our way to get on board. Trade it down is not forbidden, of course, but this stands a bit beyond of our talk. So, retracement is not very nice as it rather choppy and provides no clear patterns. It makes difficult to estimate its target. But, still we have two things that could help us. Major one is harmony. If you take careful look at daily chart, you could recognize potential reverse H&S pattern on top (I've tried to put it here). It is curious for classic technical analysis, but for modern market it is common thing, which you could see very often. Following the harmony of this pattern, its right arm should be somewhere around 10.3K, which agrees with 5/8 FIb support and AB-CD 1.618 extension as it is shown on the chart - this is second issue that we have. The process of position taking could be different - split position and buy in parts, wait for 10.3K, wait for the bottom of retracement wherever it will be then wait for upside reversal and buy on tactical retracement, etc... Now 10.3K seems a bit deep, but we think BTC still could reach it. P.S. those who familiar with DiNapoli technic, we have B&B "Buy" short-term setup on daily...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Tactical retracement is a next stepMorning everybody, So, our first target of 12,4K mostly is done and market stands at solid resistsance now - major 5/8 Fib level, daily overbought (blue line) and Agreement as upside 1.618 AB-CD is hit. (for those who familiar with DiNapoli technique - in fact we have DiNapoli bearish "Stretch" and Kibby trade setups at once). In such sircumstances odds suggest a pullback. There are two Fib support levels that we intend to keep an eye on - 11K which is 3/8 and 10.3K of 5/8 Fib supports. As usual, on intraday charts we're watching for AB-CD shape down, to identify where particular retracement will be over and "222" Buy pattern will appear. Once technical retracement will be done - our next target is 15.3K, as we've discussed in our longer-term view previously. Currently we do not consider any bearish trades as they are too small for our updates and mostly watching for bullish setups. But it is not forbidden to make scalp shorts of course...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
12400...15300...Morning guys, As we've said last week - breakout of 10K area opened new trading range for the market where it stands now. Today we put weekly chart, because it forms the background for 1-2 months of trading. Last week was bullish grabber (by DiNapoli terms), which means that BTC should take out previous top. As we have all time COP target around 15.3K - this is most probable nearest destination point on weekly chart. In shorter-term perspective we have our upside AB=CD pattern. Our OP at 11.3 is reached, the next short-term target is XOP @12400$. As BTC stands at 5/8 resistance, chances on pullback, somewhere to 11-11.3K exist. If we will get, say, "222' Buy" we could take the long position. Any short position right now meets hihgher risk until price stands above 9100$ lows. Take care. S.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
1
Just brief update on BTCMorning everybody, It is a silence on the market as all eyes stand on Fed statement and its impact on FX and other market. As a result BTC mostly stands in the range of sell-off that has happened last week. Previously we've mentioned that BTC shows bearish action as it has broken normal market behavior that should follow on a background of daily morning star pattern but has not happened. Although price indeed has dropped - recent lows still stand valid. Now we do not have some clear and bright patterns that could shows us the direction. In such circumstances possible solution is to keep an eye on important levels. Thus, first one is daily lows, of course. Once they will be broken, downside action continues. But another important level stands on 4H chart. It splits two trading zones and market now is challenging it. If BTC fails to break it up, chances on downside breakout increases. Conversely upside breakout of this level suggests upside AB=CD action somewhere to 11.3K area. Potentially we could get large "222" Sell pattern. While we do not have clarity, it is better to sit on the hands.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Intraday bullish setup has failedMorning folks, Market confirms our suspicions on weakness, as even last week we had doubts on upside perspective as BTC was not able to show adequate reaction on our 4H reverse H&S pattern. Now price drifts even lower and almost erased daily "Morning star" pattern. Although theoretically pattern is not failed yet as BTC stands above its lows, but price action is irrational for bullish market and probably it is a question of time, when market will drop further. Thus, we do not see yet good context for long entry. For short entry there are two ways - wait for bearish pattern and use stop Sell entry order slightly above the Morning Star lows. 8.5K is daily oversold, so we could use it as short-term floor. Our long-term view suggests that major retracement should be over in IIIQ, i.e. BTC should reach our major target of 6.4-7.2K area. Then major long-term trend should start. We think that starting of ICE Bakkt trading could become a catalysts of this process.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
It's all about right arm's lowsHowdy folks, hope you're OK, Let's keep up with our H&S pattern on 4H chart. Market finally has appointed the bottom of right arm and technically setup becomes simple. Now it is difficult to say whether upside AB=CD retracement will happen or not. Personally, I'm tending to bearish view as we expect dollar supportive as GDP data today as Fed statement next week. Theoretically this should trigger downside continuation of our major daily retracement. Still, if you have bullish view and want to buy, you could act against recent lows. This is perfect invalidation point that lets you to place tight stop. Bears should wait either H&S completion by upside AB=CD action, or, downside breakout of recent lows, which be first signal of H&S failure and drop below the head. Now few words on our long-term view. Our recent analysis of market sentiment (you could read it if you want on our website) tells that BTC should turn to bullish trend in IIIQ of 2019 and breakout point will be ICE Bakkt contract. This is not because of Bakkt itself but because of breakout in BTC regulation as Bakkt will become a culmination moment of agreement between investors, regulated exchange trading and regulation authorities (CFTC and NFA). This is a green line for institutional investors and will be turning point for whole cryptocurrency market. IT means that our major retracement on weekly chart should finish within 2-3 months with reaching 6500-7500 area. We treat this area as suitable for long-term investing. But now, let's see what we will get on GDP today and Fed next week.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Tricks around H&S patternMorning guys, So, yesterday it was a bit dramatic action around our culmination area - bottom of right arm. As you know, that was not due some market factors but external intruding. D. Trump and Congress adopt new debt ceil for US national Debt, which was increased and should be sufficient for ~2 years. That was positive factor that supported USD. Thus, BTC/USD has shown the same reaction. As a result we have following things. Market stands not too far from the perfect point of right arm's bottom and recent drop was mostly due external factors. But... we have bearish reversal candle on 4H chart, on 1H chart we have just ordinary harmonic swing reaction to the point where major reversal had to happen. Drop down stands with acceleration (and 3 black crows, right?). Thus, overall siuation now stands not as friendly as it was yesterday. If you already have longs, you could try to close it with minor upside pullack to entry level @9850 (or keep them if you have different view on situation). Bears could step in soon, if BTC will continue dropping. If you do not have long position - wait for upside breakout on 1H channel and action above 10K area. All these scenarios are still possible as BTC has not leaved yet equilibrium area, but probabilities stand a bit different with a bit more in favor of downside continuation.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Make your decision - we're at 9850$Howdy folks, Let's step out a bit from long-term suggestions and focus on our tactical setup that we have. Yesterday we've discussed reverse H&S pattern on 4H chart and now it comes to culmination point. Right arm's bottom is almost completed. Thus, if you plan to go long - that's your point where you have to make a decision. On 1H chart we could see the whole process of appearing of right arm. Market is forming perfect AB=CD pattern which agrees with major 5/8 Fib support. CD leg could be finalized by puny butterfly "Buy". What else do we need? Bottom of the right arm is very informative point. Market has to turn up there to keep up with H&S or, downside continuation, tending to the bottom of the head will tell us that H&S is failing and we should reverse position. This is classic setup for trading any H&S. That's being said, for bulls - take long position around 9850$. If no signs of upside reversal happen and price continues downward action to 9400-9500 - reverse position down. Bears should wait the same.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Reaction on 9K targetMorning guys, BTC shows response on major daily 9K target, which is also strong Fib support area and former oversold level. Now we could recognize Morning star candlestick pattern on daily, which takes the shape of reverse H&S on 4H chart This is common thing. Thus, within 2-3 sessions we will deal with this pattern. As usual, those who wants to go long - keep an eye on right arm's bottom with stops below the head, while bears should wait when H&S hits the target. AB-CD upside pattern will give us "222" Sell.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Be aware of 8970$ targetMorning guys, As we've discussed medium-term perspective yesterday, today we pay attention to minor thing, technical price action around major target. Depsite that our AB=CD journey to 9K area mostly is done - BTC has not quite reached the target yet, as it stands at 8970$ area, but started upside action. We want to warn you - if you consider long entry by some trading plan - be aware of this level. As a rule, markets very rare leave behind major targets. Despite minor upward action right now, it is a big risk of return back and finalizing of AB=CD. On 4H chart we also have DiNapoli bearish grabber, that suggests drop below recent lows. This is the only thing that we want to say today. So, if you plan to go long - place your initial stop either below 8970$, to not been washed out by final downside leg, or wait when target will be totally completed.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Beyond 9000$...Morning guys, So, yesterday setup is done perfect, market stands in few bucks from 9000$ major daily AB=CD target. But today we want to talk on medium-term perspective... what's next and what we see from recent price action. If we pay some attention to details then we could recognize strong bearish efforts. Indeed, as yesterday as two days ago - sell-off was so strong that BTC has paid no attention to Oversold condition (blue line is DiNapoli Oscillator Predictor, showing OS area). Combination of strong K-support area (despite it has been tested once earlier) and Oversold was not able to hold price and BTC has pressed it down anyway. The same story repeats yesterday. Depsite oversold BTC was tendning lower, showing tail close candles and coming to major target. Once AB=CD will be completed, we expect some retracement as usual. But when BTC calms down a bit and leave Oversold, we suspect that next 1.618 AB-CD extension appears on horizon. It is too strong downside pressure right above the major target. Very often it leads to downside continuation later. Besides, this continuaiton to major 5/8 Support around 7K area totally corresponds to our long-term view of major retracement. Thus, as soon as technical response on 9K target will be over, we keep door open for another leg down.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Watching for downside continuationMorning everybody, So, upside bounce that we've suggested yesterday is done. Now we have to match the facts. Such combination as uncompleted major targets at 9680 and 9000$, downside acceleration on daily chart and reaching of strong resistance on 1H chart (BTC is not at oversold on daily any more). Upside harmonic swing is done as well. Thus, if market still stands bearish, this should be enough for downside continuation. Breaking 1H resistance area and move above consolidation doesn't match to bearish market and it changes short-term sentiment.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
9700...9000...Morning guys, So, our 11K-12K ping-pong trading plan has done perfect. The H&S pattern that we've discussed on Thu is almost done. Due to the solid drop on Friday, BTC stands oversold on daily chart and at the same K-support area. As a result, it is difficult to count on immediate downside continuation. Nearest target is H&S AB=CD at 9700. BTC could try to reach it despite OS condition on daily, as it stands relatively near. Then we expect small pullback, as respect of target and to leave uncomfortable daily Oversold area. Our major short-term target is large AB=CD @ 9K. (8970 to say precisely). Now it is not good area to take new short position. Wait for pullback.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
To 11K then to 12K and then we will see ;)Morning everybody, So, reversal setup around 13.12K predefined area has worked perfectly. Thanks to JPowell negative comments on Libra, BTC has got downside acceleration. Still, on the daily chart we do not cancel totally idea of upside butterfly, at least until price stands above 10K area. Today - tomorrow we're mostly focused on tactical price action. Our H&S is done perfect, and now market is coming to 11K 5/8 Fib support area. Here, on 1H chart you also could recognize direct H&S pattern - head and left arm are already in place. The last detail that we miss is right arm - and it could be formed by upside bounce to 12K area.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten