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9700...9000...Morning guys, So, our 11K-12K ping-pong trading plan has done perfect. The H&S pattern that we've discussed on Thu is almost done. Due to the solid drop on Friday, BTC stands oversold on daily chart and at the same K-support area. As a result, it is difficult to count on immediate downside continuation. Nearest target is H&S AB=CD at 9700. BTC could try to reach it despite OS condition on daily, as it stands relatively near. Then we expect small pullback, as respect of target and to leave uncomfortable daily Oversold area. Our major short-term target is large AB=CD @ 9K. (8970 to say precisely). Now it is not good area to take new short position. Wait for pullback.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
To 11K then to 12K and then we will see ;)Morning everybody, So, reversal setup around 13.12K predefined area has worked perfectly. Thanks to JPowell negative comments on Libra, BTC has got downside acceleration. Still, on the daily chart we do not cancel totally idea of upside butterfly, at least until price stands above 10K area. Today - tomorrow we're mostly focused on tactical price action. Our H&S is done perfect, and now market is coming to 11K 5/8 Fib support area. Here, on 1H chart you also could recognize direct H&S pattern - head and left arm are already in place. The last detail that we miss is right arm - and it could be formed by upside bounce to 12K area.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
The moment of truthMorning everybody, So, it seems our yesterday suggestion was correct and BTC perfectly (almost) completes as 1H H&S pattern as 4H AB=CD. Also you could recognize minor butterfly "Sell" on CD leg of this pattern. I said "almost" because target stands slightly higher, around 13.1K area. But this is minor detail... What is really important - what will happen next. We have two possible patterns, as we've said already. Either it will be upside butterfly to major 15-15.3K target, or larger daily downside AB=CD (as it is shown on the picture). And what pattern it will be depends on current point. Thus, today, we're watching for reaction on 13.12K target. This is moment of decision for bears, as it is most comfortable point for taking short position. Also price is flirting with MACDP inidicator line. If bearish grabber will be formed it adds more confidence with downside action. Conversely, moving above 13.12, coming closer to previous top tells that market will show upside breakout and upward action continues.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Upside chances increasesMorning folks, Last week we talked on two possible ways of major retracement - either in the shape of wide AB=CD pattern or extended H&S pattern. And we said - keep an eye on price action inside triangle. If BTC will not break it down, or stops downside action by some reason - be careful. It could be early signal of possible upside continuation. This has happened. Although it doesn't totally cancel AB=CD pattern down, making it a bit wider, but it definitely tells that BTC has no intention to go down right now. Here you could recognize some shape of reverse H&S pattern. It means that some upside leg should be formed, at least AB=CD, forming "222" Sell on daily. Ultimately BTC could continue upside action right to our major weekly target of 15.3K, forming butterfly "Sell" on daily chart. Currently we see that situation is not attractive for taking short position.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Dual way of major retracementMorning folks, We conitnue our journey with major retracement on BTC market. The price shape points that usually retracement takes two most common directions. First scenario we already have considered, and it suggests AB=CD downside action first to ~9K area then pullback and second CD leg to 7K area. Thus, it will be big AB=CD, based on weekly shooting star pattern. Second way starts equal, but later turns to triangle and leads to appearing of upside butterfly, which later becomes a part of huge H&S pattern. On weekly chart all-time 0.618 AB-CD extension stands around 15.3K, and if we consider butterfly on daily, it has 1.27 extension precisely around 15K area. Downside reversal that we've suggested two days ago is started. And now we have important task - identify the way of retracement. Here we need to keep an eye on 10-10.2K area. If market suddenly stops there and turns up again, starting to form triangle - it means that we're on the second way and be prepare to 15K rally. Normal downside continuation, drop below 10K and folloing our 3-Drive "Buy" pattern on 1H chart confirms 1st way of retracement. So, don't relax and keep an eye on 10-10.2K area ;) Plan your trades accordingly depending on type of the retracement that we will get.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
8800-9000$ is still on the tableMorning, guys So, yesterday's factors were really strong, deadly combination for the bears of daily K-support and oversold. As a result our suggestion on pullback seems to be correct. But, still, we treat it just a reaction on daily oversold, but not as starting of new upside swing. Mostly because bearish pressure stands strong, and two days ago market ignored strong intraday levels. This is not normal for bullish market. These thoughts leads us to conclusion that before major upside bounce on daily chart, we should get another swing down first to complete major OP target of AB=CD pattern. The same butterfly that we've discussed yesterday could finalize this action as its 1.618 extension also stands there. On 1H chart this action to take the shape of 3-Drive "Buy" pattern as well. Thus, our suggestion now is downside continuation to 8970-9000$ area and then major upside bounce on daily. As we do not intend to trade BTC short right now, we do not worry too much on the shape of downside action, as we're mostly watching for bullish opportunities. We keep an eye on downside action to control its shape and identify levels where it could finish.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Bounce is possible but we keep in mind 8900-9000$ areaMorning everybody, It is difficult to express in one post the whole picture that we see. It would be better if you watch the video, where we cover all time frames... Market ignores strong technical issues. Yesterday it drops deeper in oversold and broken through intraday K-resistance area. Now BTC stands at major daily K-support and OS area as well. On intraday charts our "222" Buy turns to Butterfly. Odds suggest minor pullback, 30% maybe a bit more. As we have downside AB=CD target around 8900$, after pullback downside action should continue. This area also will be 1.618 butterfly extension. As soon as it will be reached - price will complete huge weekly evening star pattern and the first leg of our predefined retracement. Second leg should follow to 6500-7000 area as we've suggested. As we do not trade BTC short right now and mostly wait for strategical point to go long, we do not care much on the shape of retracement. It is possible probably to do some scalp long trades, based on shown butterfly as well but we wait for strategical point. If you would like to go long right now, you should understand the risk, because bearish pressure is very strong as market drop despite oversold. Odds suggest no short position as market at daily Oversold and strong K-support area.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Odds suggest tactical upside bounce todayMorning guys, While we keep our long-term view intact and now it is really good chances that recent huge spike on weekly chart is a starting point of the retracement that we're waiting for, today we take a look at short-term perspective. As sell-off was rather fast, last week we've suggested that some downside continuation should happen in a shape of AB-CD pattern and this has happened. At the same time market right now has limited downside potential, because on daily chart it stands at strong Fib K-support area and daily oversold. So, this is not good point to go short. Odds suggest upside bounce. Thus, on 4H chart we have '222" Buy that could trigger it. It is good chances that downside action continues this week but market needs few days to leave Oversold area. For bears - sit on the hands and wait for pullback, while bulls could consider this "222" Buy, but do not treat it as continuation of long-term bull trend. Depending on the shape of upside bounce, we make conclusion on further action and the patterns that could be formed this week. As usual, on our website you get the video on all time frames analysis.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Retracement starts... Tactical or strategical?Morning guys, So, as we've said last time - we go from one major resistance to another and nearest was major 5/8 on weekly around 13500$. It has been hit. We do not consider right now our major target here of 15.3K, just because it stands beyond weekly Overbought and we do not need it for few weeks probably. As a result we've got DiNapoli bearish "Stretch" pattern here on weekly, as combination of Fib level and OB and huge shooting star pattern. Thus retracement stands on horizon. But the question is - whether this will be major retracement to 6-7K$ that we're waiting or tactical? For major retracement some extended bearish reversal pattern has to be formed either on daily or 4H chart and we will keep an eye on it. Meantime, as we've got huge bearish engulfing pattern on daily, we could count on AB=CD pattern somewhere to 8.8-9K area. Now BC leg is forming. Thus, for short entry - watch for intraday "222" Sell pattern at some Fib level. For long entry on daily chart, it would be better to wait at least until major AB=CD action ends. So long entry is not the subject of this week.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
13500 and 15300$ are next targetsMorning guys, It seems that we have to show our longer-term view, because not everybody watching our videos on FPA website. Our previous updates stands at daily and below and doesn't show total view. In fact our trading plan consists of two parts. Longer-term, strategical one suggests two things - major retracement and take long-term investing on BTC market. This retracement should happen sooner rather than later and take 50-60% of recent upside action. Thus, speaking on current levels, retracement should be somewhere to 6-7K level. Definitely it should happen from important resistance level. And here, on weekly, we try to recognize the levels where retracement could start. Now on the table we have two of them - major 5/8 Fib level around 13500$ and all time AB-CD COP (0.618) target at 15300$. Thus, nearest level that we're wathcing is 5/8 Fib resistsance. Besides, BTC comes close to weekly Overbought. Second part of the plan is tactical - to see what we could do on lower time frames. Now, as market has broken 50% level and we have very good thrust as on daily as on 4H chart, we could watch for DiNapoli B&B "Buy" trades, i.e. bullish momentum continuation trades around 3/8 support levels. They are relatively safe and let to ride on a rally till next resistance level which stands 1000$ higher...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
11550 is next resistanceMorning guys, Our strategy on weekly/daily time frames stands the same - we watch for reaction on major resistance/target levels and wait for healthy retracement to step in. It doesn't suggest any short positions on BTC right now Market gradually is coming to all time 50% Fib resistance around 11550. On daily chart we have XOP target 100$ lower - 11450. Thus, this is next area where we will keep an eye on market reaction. As market stands overbought here, on daily, this distance probably will take few sessions. Taking of short positions is not forbidden, of course, but we call for few moments. First is do not marry any short position as overall bullish momentum stands strong right now and consider nearest targets. Second - get strong resistance, and finally - get clear bearish pattern. Applying to current situation - wait reaching of 11450-11550 and watch for bearish patterns.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
10100-10200 is next tactical targetMorning everybody, Our 3-Drive "Sell" that we've discussed last time on daily was disrespected by BTC market and has not triggered any major retracement. But this is doesn't change the core of our major trading plan. Sooner or later but major retracement will start, this is just how market works. Our suggestion - once it starts it should reach ~6500$ area. Trading plan now stands as follows. We estimate next potential upside target on daily and once it has been hit, we watch for reaction, whether retracement starts or not. If not - we estimate next upside target. Now, next level stands relatively close - 10100-10200 area. This is AB=CD target and 1.618 extension of previous retracement (you could treat it as butterfly "Sell" as well). So, let's see what will happen there...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
9500-9700$ as a short-term ceilMorning everybody, Our H&S setup has been erased by market as price has climbed above 8300$ on Friday. We warned in our report, if this will happen - H&S setup will fail and market moves above the top (i.e. the head). Still, we keep our larger context the same - we expect moderate retracement on BTC and sooner or later but it should start. Our context doesn't suggest bearish trading and we're interested in bearish patterns only as a tool for retracement. But it is not forbidden of course, to trade it if it matches your trading plan. Now, BTC comes to major all time 3/8 weekly resistance at ~9580$ area. On daily chart market is forming 3-Drive "Sell" pattern instead of H&S pattern. This combination increases odds that our retracement could start from this area. If you plot MACD here, you'l see huge bearish divergence as well. Thats' being said, despite that reversal pattern was changed, our major context stands the same. Whether to trade BTC short based on the patterns that are forming here is up to you. Our major context is bullish and it doesn't suggest short-term bearish positions, as we're waiting for the point to take long-term strategical bullish position.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
AB=CD is done, now to 6600$?Morning guys, So, our upside AB=CD action, based on last report to 8300$ area is done. As a result our "222" Sell on 4H chart stands ready to trigger downside action. In fact, "222" Sell is a part of our H&S pattern on daily. Currently the final stage of our retracement trading plan should start. We should get downside continuation to 6400-6600$ area. This is rather strong support and we treat it as major level to taking long-term investing position on BTC. Thus, bears - could consider short entry, based on "222" and H&S pattern. Target is ~6500$ range. If market will move to 8500$+ - it means that setup has failed and market is going to new highs. Bulls should wait when retracement will be over and provide good entry levels.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
On a road to 8300+$Morning everybody, It seems that our trading plan is working and here is minor add-on to the one that we've said yesterday. Today on daily chart we've got bullish engulfing pattern as BTC moves higher. Thus, we expect some upside AB=CD pattern that should finalize our upside retracement and put the start then to major downside swing. The only concern that we have is placing of "C" point by far. I draw it a bit lower, in this case AB=CD ends right at 8300$. But, if upside action will start from higher level - adjust "C" point and calculate the target by yourself. There will not be vital difference.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Minor update on last reportMorning guys, Unforunately it is impossible to combine weekly and lower time frames analysis here, so watch the video on our website, but shortly speaking - here on 4H chart I've tried to combined our view on nearest perspective. As you know we keep an eye on possible H&S pattern on daily/intraday charts and its potential target around 6500-6600 area in a way of AB=CD action. This scenario also is confirmed by what we see on weekly. Meantime, although some upside bounce has happened, on Friday, market has not quite reached 8300 area, where we suggest the top of right arm should be. As market stands at strong daily K-support, we think that chances on another leg us still exist, thus maybe "222" Sell will be formed and then major downside action will start. Thus our suggestion for the bulls is to sit on the hands and wait for 6500 area, for bears - try to take position as close to 8300 as possible, but avoid fast upside action. Any upward thrusting action means no bearish positions. But overall setup is still valid and it is still the same as last week.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
8300 then 7020 (and 6500$) part IIMorning guys, This is update on previous setup, so it should be considered in relation to the one. In fact, everything goes well, as BTC shows upside retracement, as we've suggested. Price reacts on Oversold condition, our AB=CD intraday target and take a look - strong K-support level (it consists of two different Fib levels) Still, our long-term view suggests appearing of extended bearish pattern here, that should trigger meaningful retracement on weekly chart. And we're watching - whether this action could become a part of it. Now, it is possible appearing of H&S pattern. Actually we've talked about it last time as well. But last time we've taken a look at 4H chart, now it is more representative to watch over daily time frame... Thus, now we suggest appearing of right arm of this pattern, with upside retracement somewhere to 8250-8300 level. Then action to the target should start. AB=CD down creates an Agreement with next 6500$ Fib support, and this could become particular the retracement on weekly, that we are watching for. Also we have intermediate XOP target on 4H chart around 7025 area. You can see it on previous update. Depending on your view - you could follow different setups. Bears could consider short entry around right arm's top, while bulls should wait for deeper support level or... failure of this H&S pattern.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
8350$ then 7025?Morning guys, Thus, our downside setup has done well, as we've got perfect AB=CD pattern, based on daily reversal candle. Now market stands at 5/8 Fib support and very close do daily oversold (not shown here). It means that in nearest 1-2 sessions it will be difficult to proceed lower and more probable that BTC turns to upside pullback. Taking in consideration recent tops, we suggest that most probable target of this action stands in 8300-8400$ range. As a result for could get another "222" Sell. We consider another leg down to XOP target @ 7025 by two reasons. First is - drop to OP was fast, and usually, market proceeds lower in such cases. Second, here, on 4H chart, we could recognize H&S pattern with right arm top around 8300$. This could give us larger AB=CD with the same 7025$ target. Bearish scenario will be destroyed if price climbs above 9090 top, or, at least will not turn down around 8400. Thus, we suggest upside pullback first, somewhere to 8300-8400 then downside continuation with 7025$ target
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Downside continuation due daily reversal sessionMorning guys, As you know, on weekly/daily charts market stands at the area which is friendly for starting major retracement. And 9050-9400 range is the one where this, at least theoretically should happen. Retracement should start by well-recognizable reversal pattern, which we do not see yet. As this is longer-term scenario, price could flirt around the top and spend some time here. In shorter-term, on Friday we mentioned reversal session on daily chart, which finished upside rally to our XOP target. As a rule, reversal sessions have continuation, in a shape of AB=CD action of different depth. As upside retracement is done - now, on 1H chart we have clear "222" Sell pattern, which could become a background for this action. Thus, if you trade on intraday charts and think about fast short trande, you could consider this scenario.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Preparation to major retracementMorning guys, Final upside swing has happened, as we've suggested, but BTC limits it just by nearest target - XOP of daily AB-CD pattern. On daily chart we've got reversal session. It means that chances on completion of 1.618 4H batterfly around 9400$ area are not as good as they were last week. Thus, as our major target is hit - we expect that BTC starts preparation for meaningful downside retracement of weekly/daily time frames. Right now we can't estimate target with precision, but it should be more than 3/8 level. Thus, 6100-6500$ is the one that we will keep an eye on. Later we could estimate it better. It means that on daily chart it is not time to go long. If you want to buy BTC - wait when retracement will be over. There are few patterns that could be formed on the top. Actually, we already have the butterfly. Another one - is H&S pattern when butterfly becomes part of it. On intraday charts market stands at K-support area right now. Scalp traders could watch for bearish continuation patterns, such as "222' Sell' . But the major conclusion - we watch for bearish reversal pattern here and deep retracement.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Momentum upside swing is still possible to 9040-9400 areaMorning guys, Just brief update on current situation. Last time we said, that BTC should turn to major retracement somewhere from 9040-9400 area - and we still keep this view. So it is not time yet to go short. Currently, price action reminds bullish flag and shows definite features of retracement action. Upside action to 1.27 butterfly target was fast, and daily XOP for a few bucks, but still has not been totall completed. This lets us to suggest another upside leg, let's call it as "last one", just due existed strong upside bullish momentum. By this action market should step in our so-called "reversal area". Thus, upside continuation should follow either right from here or, at least from 8040-8050 level. It means, that trade under consideration is "Long", with target inside 9040-9400 (tell the target with more precision later) with stops below 8000 area...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
1
BTC steps in target rangeMorning guys, Our upside setup has done well. Daily 9042 XOP target is not completed totally yet, but we could say that mostly it does. Now we have some issues that makes the background for our trading plan. 1. On weekly chart, we've got bullish reversal swing. At the same time, previous bearish momentum is strong and it should trigger moderate retracement sooner rather than later. 2. On daily chart market is overbought and steps in our target range. 3. Now we have completed 1.27 butterfly on 4H chart. But, as upside action to the target was strong, we do not totally deny chances on 1.618 continuation to 9500 area. Taking it all together makes us think that BTC comes to the moment when major retracement should start. Reversal should happen in 9050-9500 area. Since we have a butterfly pattern, chances on H&S appearing looks significant. Now we point as target "floor" 9050$ area and "target ceil" 9500$. It's time to think about profit taking (at least on part of the position) and tight stop on the rest.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Market is ready for upside continuationMorning everybody, In our last update we talked on the way of tactic retracement. It makes no impact on our final target and major pattern, but it makes impact only on the way how market prepares to upside breakout. We've suggested AB-CD retracement and forming of "222" Buy as a right wing of upside butterfly. Our target stands at 9040$. Thus, our "222" has been formed, also BTC shows gradual and slow flag consolidation, which also has bullish features. Price spends a lot of time with retracement but was able to reach just 3/8 Fib support, which hints on existence of solid support. So, may be not today, but on the next week upside action should start as preparation to upside breakout is done.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten