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Still keeping 3000-3100 targetMorning guys, Last week we made no update on BTC just because it has lost 90% of its volatility and speculators' activity. Market is not very interesting for active trading. As you can see, even with such events as Fed meeting and NFP data on the back - BTC shows anemic sensitivity and shows no reaction. Thus, everything that we've said last week mostly stands the same this week as well. if you've read our January fundamental briefing of BTC market you probably know that all major fundamental events that should have become major driving factors for BTC in the beginning of the year were postponed. In very long-perspective we see positive shifts and think that crypto topic will survive and continue its development but real upside long term trend hardly start first half of 2019. It means that in short-term perspective we're still watching for our ultimate 1800-2000 target, while on daily chart we expect drop below 3000$ On 4H chart we have AB-CD pattern that suggests precisely this action. Price moves slowly but stubbornly and shows 2 step forward 1 step back shape of action on 1H chart.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
3050-3100$ is next targetMorning, guys, Sorry for extended silence, but actually there were nothing to add to our former analysis. Bitcoin has lost 98% of its volatility and situation changes very slow now. Although market has spent some time in flat action, our suggestion seems to be correct and scenario of H&S failure, drop back to 3000 initially still stands on the table. Recently market has shown at least some activity with minor dive down. Here, on 4H chart we have downside AB-CD pattern. 1.0 target already has been passed, so next one is 1.618 that stands accurately around former H&S head botom of 3000 area. Next our downside target is 2800. Our long-term ultimate target is 1800$
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
3
Back to 3000$ ?Morning everybody, So, BTC has confirmed our suggestion and indeed has formed "222" Sell, just AB=CD retracement on 1H chart and dropped back to 3600 then. Here, on daily chart we have DiNapoli grabber that suggests drop below 3600 lows. Here I keep the shape of H&S pattern, just to describe the importance of possible breakout. Drop below the bottom of right arm means H&S failure, which, in turn, as a rule leads to drop below the Head. Our next target is based on butterfly pattern at 2800$. In general downside action stands in agreement with our long term view, as our ultimate all time 1.618 AB-CD target stands at 1800. This should be final leg down before trend changing. And it seems that BTC gradually steps in on this way.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
DAX - take a brief before another diveHere is we update our long-term view on DAX index and EU equities in general. It would be better to place weekly charts as well, but you're experienced guys, you'll get it ;) So, market last week has completed our minor weekly H&S pattern (you could see right at top of large monthly one) and hit XOP at 10200 area. This is also monthly oversold level and major 5/8 Fib support. Taking in consideration previous pullback from monthly oversold and H&S pattern that now is forming on daily chart - we suggest 3/8 upside pullback somewhere to 11800 area. After that downside action should continue and lead us right to the neckline of large H&S pattern, completion of the Head. Retracment up should be over somewhere in March...
INDEX:DEU40
by Sive-Morten
2
Current pause doesn't change the coreMorning everybody, So, it is difficult choice today what picture to show - either 4H or 1H. Finally I've chosen 4H, since it better represents the idea. Major thing has happened already - irrational price behavior on daily chart suggests drop below 3000 and potentially to our 2800 target. Thus, intraday price action is minor episode in this process and has no meaningful impact on the core. Current pause appears due market reaction on support area - 5/8 level and AB=CD completion. So, in fact we have "222" Buy pattern here. AS a result we could get retracement to ~3800 area as a reaction on this pattern. You could even recongize minor reverse H&S pattern on the bottom right now, right? If market will start dropping below 3500 within few hours - it will mean that no retracement will happen and downside action will continue. Whatever scenario will be realised - it has no impact on the major idea. Thus, getting upside retracement will be chance to go short, or breaking 3500 area also will be downside continuation. This tactical setup makes no impact on bearish scenario.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
2800$ becomes probableMorning guys, Last week we shared with our doubts on upside perspectives and our reverse H&S pattern in particular, because of irrational market behavior around its neckline. It was too calm without any momentum, slow and heavy, which is not typical for H&S pattern, where right arm should be controlled by bulls and upside acceleration should happen. As a result, we was needed breakout of 3600 area as a confirmation of H&S failure and bearish scenario. Now we see that market dropped below it and stands stable around, whitout any atempt on pullback. Take in consideration that all this stuff has happened on background of weak dollar, when all currencies across the board shows positive dynamic. Depsite that here we could recognize another potential "222" Buy pattern, H&S failure and solid sell-off in recent sessions are more valuable bearish context. As market is not at Oversold, we suggest that BTC could start final leg down that we expect to get before reversal will start. Our long-term target stands at 1800-2000$ area. Still, next daily step that could happen is downside butterfly pattern, with 1.27 target around 2800$ area. That is what we will keep an eye on.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
3600$ is a moment of truthGreetings, although market has shown minor upside spike, after our recent discussion, strong collapse has followed shows inability of the market to break neckline of daily H&S pattern. Although major invalidation point of right arm's bottom @3600$ has not been broken yet, and theoretically H&S is still valid, but this kind of action is irrational for H&S pattern and should be treated as big flaw in bullish context. Now we should at least escape any long positions. For short entry there are two different setups - either wait for bearish continaution patterns, such as '222" Sell, based on recent drop, or wait for breakout of 3600 area, which suggests drop below 3000$ and action to our all time 1800$ target that we still keep on the table...
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
4300$ is next target probablyMorning guys, Despite we have worried about bullish context due weak performance but worst expectations hopefully were in vain and market with delay but still has shown upside breakout that we were waiting for. So, first target of 4040, is completed. This is actually AB-CD based on 4H H&S pattern and two butterflies. Now we're coming to most interesting thing, as BTC stands right under neckline of larger daily H&S. Bulls could keep longs, just do not forget manage stop orders. Since we have nice acceleration up, there are not zero chances, that market will proceed to XOP target at 4300. Retracement now stands very gradual and smooth. We have "222" Buy on 1H chart and bullish grabber here, on 4H, which suggests action above recent tops.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Too flat action increases risk of failureGreetings guys, Although our H&S pattern on daily chart is still valid, at least on paper, but the action that we see on 4H time frame increases chances of failure. As you can see the daily right arm bottom takes the shape of smaller 4H H&S pattern. Normal price action suggests upside acceleration as soon as H&s has been formed. But here we see opposite picture - flat action and triangle shape. This is not normal. Only external driving factor could push BTC up, but technical picture warns that something is wrong. So, if you already have longs - move stops to breakeven or, just under the lows of daily right arm. If not - stands a side for awhile.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4040 is first minor targetMorning guys, welcome back, we hope that you had a good Xmas and New Year's day time. Mostly BTC supports our scenario with daily H&S pattern and now we turn to final stage - action to the target. Two entry opportunities have worked well. First was on the bottom of the right arm, second - on minor retracement, based on our hourly H&S pattern. Now, as we have minor H&S on hourly chart as well, we will follow to its targets first, and turn to daily H&S second. First target is AB=CD based on the head and right arm. It stands at 4040 area.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Wait for right arm and up...Morning guys, So, upstep is done - market shows upside bounce from our anticipated 3500 level, which is suggested by daily H&S shape. Now BTC has only one legal road - up. Illegal reversal will mean H&S failure which suggests drop below the 3000$ Head level. Now time has come for our "conservative" tactics, if you were scared a bit to buy right at the daily right arm bottom. Here, on 1H chart, market has formed upside reversal swing after butterfly has been formed. It means that deep retracement should follow and, here, we also could get minor reverse H&S pattern. I draw it as a combination of butterfly and "222" here. 5/8 Fib support stands around 3750$ level. This is potential entry area for those who would like to buy (against 3550$ lows). Potential target, as we've mentioned before daily AB=CD, based on H&S. Reverse down and breaking of 3550 lows will be early sign of collapse and drop below 3000$. Detailed video with all time frames analysis on our website (link at signature below), no advertisement or cross-links, as usual. pure analysis. Good luck.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Moment of truth for BTC - either up to 4500 or drop below 3000Morning guys, So, that's it. Price at the bottom of right arm of our H&S pattern. Potential target is 4500$ - AB=CD and strong daily K-resistance area. Failure of H&S will lead to drop below the head, i .e. 3000$. Those of you, who tracks our analysis, probably knows that we have long-term uncompleted weekly 1800$ target and treat this H&S only as a retracement. Sooner or later but due our expectations final leg down should happen. That's why possible H&S failure here is not minor question for us. The one thing that I do not like with this pattern is strong sell-off on right shoulder. Actually on right shoulder bulls should control the market. But, instead of gradual AB-CD that we've discussed previously, we''ve got sharp drop. This is not good. So, we offer to buy insurance - wait for upside action up from major 5/8 Fib support, where market stands right now, and appearing, say, reverse H&S on 1H chart. Butterfly we already have. This is instead of buying right now... But, this is just IMO.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Up to ~ 4000 and down to 3500$Morning guys, Everything stands according the plan. Market shows respect to our ~4000$ strong resistance area, which includes two Fib levels and intraday 1.618 AB=CD target that we've talked last week. Since we're watching for H&S pattern on daily, we need to get the last part - right arm. As market has formed bearish reversal swing here, first upside pullback should be, approximately 5/8 to ~4000$ and next we expect CD leg down to ~3500$. That should be the moment where we need to make decision on long entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Primary pattern to watch for is H&SMorning guys, yesterday we've met some misundertsanding in comments so here we try to clarify this. We wait for deep retracement to trade BTC long with some AB=CD shape. Most probable pattern that could provide it is H&S. So, we're waiting for the bottom of right arm. But we do not trade BTC short now and do not call for this. In fact, we do not care where downside reversal will happen and where neckline of H&S will be. All that we do care about - where this downside retracement will over. Because this is our entry point. And the fact that yesterday downside action is not started - doesn't harm our position, since we do not trade BTC short right now. It just means that we're still waiting...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3450 retracement stands on the tableMorning guys, BTC has completed 1st stage of our short-term trading plan and tested 4000$ resistance area. Since this is first upside reversal swing after long dropping - retracement down should be deep. As our yesterday AB=CD pattern is completed - BTC starts forming H&S pattern. It seems that right arm will take the shape of "222" Sell. Since our major context stands up - we do not call you to trade it short right now, but this is not forbidden of course. H&S target suggests drop to major 5/8 Fib support on hourly chart and this is our level where we think about long entry
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
4
Watching for next sky around 3700Morning guys, Our yesterday trading plan exceeds our most brave expectations as BTC jumped above our minor AB-CD targets. Existing of strong bearish long-term momentum and and 1.27 butterfly 4H chart makes us think that we could get 1.27 reverse H&S pattern. It means that as strong resistance on 4H chart will be hit we should get deep pullback, prefferably in the shape of "222" Buy which could be used for long entry again. Thus, if you've missed entry yesterday - don't upset with this. Ordinary H&S target should be around 3700$.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3320$ retracement is possibleMorning, guys, On Friday our minor 3170 target has been hit - its intermediary one on the way to major 2900 point. This target is based on two butterflies - 4H 1.27 one and 1H 1.618 that you see on the chart. Also AB=CD target has been completed. Now market is forming something that reminds H&S shape. It means that we could get at least AB-CD pullback to ~3320 area. Although we still keep bearish sentiment and mostly treat this pullback as the chance to step in on bearish side again - we should get '222" Sell by this retracement. Long position is not forbidden until "C" point is valid. Otherwise, it will be H&S failure and market will continue downside action.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
2900$ on the table?Morning guys, Market shows very weak reaction on any bullish patterns that was forming on intraday charts. Current situation is not an exception. This makes us to wait for 1.618 butterfly target on daily chart around 2900$. Reaction on 1.27 target was just minor harmonic swing. Once trend stands bullish by MACD but price shows flat action - this makes us think on existence of bearish dynamic pressure, which should lead to another leg down sometime soon. Analysis of intraday charts stand in the daily video on our website. Link stands in sign.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
4050 minimum target of 3-Drive "Buy" patternGreeting everybody, We're still watching for extention of upside retracement and patterns that could trigger it. Since taking of bearish position is postponed on indefinite time, because we need to wait either when upside retracement will be over or for clear signs of BTC failure and downside action. Now we do not have anything of this kind. For short-term bullish trading, BTC has formed 3-Drive "Buy" pattern on 4H chart. It suggests action above 4050$, but also could become the starting point of greater action. If you have bullish view, you could think about it. Pattern will be valid until market holds the lows. For position taking minor 3/8 retracement could be used on 1H chart, or some bullish continuation pattern, say "222" Buy.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
4100 or 3450$ ?Morning guys, Now we're investigating upside retracement on daily chart, which could happen by one of the three patterns - "222' Buy", Double Bottom or butterfly "Buy". As '222" Buy already stands in place - we're watching of market reaction on it. Yesterday we've talked that upside action could start by H&S pattern, and indeed, market hit the neckline and now is forming right arm. But, now it seems that arm is overextended to the downside and breaks the harmony of the pattern. This makes it weaker. Anyway, if H&S will hold, we could get action to 4100, as AB-CD target of this pattern. Conversely, dropping below recent lows and moving back to the head means that daily '222" triggereed only minor reaction, and next pattern stands on horizion, which is Double bottom. It means that BTC will drop back to daily lows...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten