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3717 is short term destinatinationMorning guys, Our K-resistance area of 4250-4300$ that we've mentioned last week is working well. Market indeed has failed to break it on marche. Taking in consideration strong bearish momentum that still stands on the market, our most conservative expectation is deep retracement to 3717 area and completion of AB=CD pattern, which should give us daily '222" Buy. Ultimate result of the same action could be butterfly with new lows. Thus, ones our H&S pattern has done well on Friday, we've talked about it in our video on website, today we're watching for butterfly. First target is 3800 - 1.27 butterfly extension and major 5/8 support, next target is 3717 - completion of larger AB-CD pattern and 1.681 butterfly target. Watch our video on website (see sign links at the bottom of the page) for more details. Thank you for watching.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Retracement at least to 3900$Morning guys, yesterday we've talked about possible sell trade around 4300$ K-resistance area, which also was an Agreement with our AB-CD pattern. As a result we've got "222" Sell, which suggests at least pullback to 3900$ area. Although drop could be stronger, since bearish momentum still stands here and BTC now shows first moderate upside retracement after collapse. Our major focus on daily chart, where we're watching for DiNapoli direction patterns - either B&B "Sell" or DRPO "Buy". Which one will be formed depends on price action within 1-2 sessions.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
3000?Morning guys, Miracle has not happened, (to be honest we don't count on it too much) as market has failed to complete our AB-CD pattern and dropped after it has failed to break trendline on hourly chart. Now, again, theoretical chances exist with action to 4200$ by AB=CD retracement, as market has two bullish grabbers on 4H chart. But my suggestion is - appearing of butterfly with 3000$ target looks more probable. In fact, if market has failed to break trend line on good uspide pace that was yesterday, today, chances to do it look phantom. BTC has negative fundamental background and from technical point of view, it has only one support by far - daily oversold level, which stands now around 3000. Thus, although AB-CD upside action theoretically could happen, we do not recommend to go long and use any rally as chance for short entry. In fact we have pennant pattern forming on daily chart...
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
BTC uspide retracement scenarioHey everybody, Here we introduce possible scenario of upside pullback on BTC. This is not the call to buy it, this is just a suggestion the shape of retracement. Depending on your view, you could treat this either as setup for scalp buy trade or rally to sell into. In general we have long-term bearish view, we've talked about it many times in our previous reports. Today we also have prepared special report on BTC that explains background of going things and they are not tehcnicals of course - hard fork of BTC cash, postponing ICE futures introduction, breakeven level of ETH mining - just to name some. Anyway, if retracement up will happen - that's the scenario to watch. Now BTC shows AB-CD retracement up and AB=CD target already has been hit. NExt destination point is XOP - 1.618 extension around 4360$ area. Then we need to keep an eye on pullback, as reverse H&S could be formed. The right arm lows will be interesting for those who intends to go long. If you have bearish view - just wait when H&S action will be over on larger time frame. In general market keeps our "creeping with oversold" price action.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Upside relief at least to 5000 area is possibleMorning everybody, BTC has hit long term targets around 4000-4200 area - daily 1.618 and weekly 1.27 butterflies. Since they are accompanied by daily oversold as well - this good background at least for technical pullback. On 4H chart we also have steep AB=CD pattern. At first glance, pullback is possible at least to 5000 $ area which is Fib K-resistance area, including 3/8 level of major stage of collapse. Thus, if you would like to go short - better to wait for pullback. Scalp long position theoretically is possible, but we do not have good bullish patterns yet on hourly chart. Once it will be formed we could a) better estimate upside target, b) get more confidence with scalp buy. Currently we see nothing of this kind yet
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Mining breakeven point?Morning guys, So, our long-term weekly trage that we've talked about in recent 2-3 months has been mostly reached (just 100$ difference). Collapse was really miserable. BTC has completed our daily butterfly as well and now stands oversold on daily chart. There is definitely some kind of shock exists here, which turn BTC to some time of flat action and retracement. But, since drop was really miserable, we do not exclude downside continuation a bit later. Today, it is possible AB=CD retracement on hourly chart somewhere to 5800$. But what is really interesting - what will happen with mining. BTC stands around global average price of mining. How crypto world will react on this moment, what will happen with mining and what impact on BTC price will follow. It needs some time for accompdation to this price. So, as on Bitfinex action, as on yesterday collapse - we expect some silience in trading while investors will come in habit with a new reality and new prices of BTC. you can see daily videos on BTC on our website, with more charts in it.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Some Psychological issues on BTCMorning guys, As you know we keep long-term bearish view on bitcoin market. Previously we've discussed a lot of patterns that chould be formed here - daily butterfly with 5800 target and 4H one with 6100 just to name some. Today we would like to talk on psychological backround of BTC situation. It has started on Bitfinex collapse and explosive demand for crypto. Many traders said "at last", we're at the the eve of upside reversal. But close look at what has happened after that makes us think that sentiment is mostly bearish here. This huge rally has not become a starting point of upside continuation. Market stands inside its range for 2 months but never moves in upper half of the range. This week on downside action major trendline support has been broken and price is coming to the range's lows for second time. We suggest that this time these lows will be broken. Taking in consideration exceptional role of huge candles - when they are broken, market follows in the direction of breakout, usually on a distance equals to the range. It means that this should lead us somewhere to 5600 $ area, which stands close to our daily target.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
3
EUR will drop to 1.12 area next weekMorning guys, At first glance overall momentum and sentiment looks bullish for EUR, but we see alternative factors from US 10 year yield jump, short-term sentiment analysis and dollar index price behavior. Thus, instead of upside bounce from 1.1360 and forming reverse H&S pattern, we mostly expect to see big 1.618 3-Drive "Buy" and drop to 1.12-1.1230 area next week. Maybe Nov 8th Fed meeting will become major driving factor of this process.
Short
by Sive-Morten
Last chance for bullsMorning guys, Yesterday we've said that BTC has to hold above major K-support area to keep bullish sentiment. Despite dollar-supportive Fed decision yesterday, BTC was able to stay above major K-support and formed "222" Buy pattern. Currently I'm not sure on real upside continuation, as upside channel has been broken, but minor pullback as respect of this area is possible, somewhere to 6450 area. At the same time, we do not like sighs of acceleration in downside action in recent 2 session. As our long-term view is bearish on BTC and we treat this action just as a retracement, adding mostly dollar supportive sentiment on the traditional markets - we suggest with high degree that downside action on next week will continue. Right now market stands at final bullish outpost. So, if you still would like to go long - that's the last area and bullish invalidation point. Breaking of this support will turn technical picture bearish. We still suggest move stop to breakeven asap on any long position here as foundation for BTC appreciation looks fragile.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Moment of truth for BTCMorning guys, Market has reached our predefined retracement target. In fact, we have side by side two K-support areas and for BTC it is crucial to hold above 6400$ to keep bullish sentiment. Otherwise, market will form bearish reversal swing, which could mean deeper retracement, at least or, even downside reversal. So, market right now stands at the point which gives perfect risk/reward ratio, because this is also invalidation point for short-term bullish setup. Taking position here doesn't promise you success, but it does promise minimum loss in case on short-term trend breaking. Today's Fed results will be major driving factor, I suppose.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
6300 support area is the key to performanceMorning guys, Although longer-term picture still stands bearish, in shorter-term trend has turned bullish and bitcoin has returned in flat consolidation that has been broken last week. This makes possible to reach 6500 first - upper border of consolidation and later 6600 - AB-CD 0.618 target on daily chart. But, to complete this, we need to keep an eye on hourly chart and 6300 strong support and channel border in particular. To keep bullish sentiment market has to hold above this area and turn up. Downside breakout will erase short-term bullish scenario. So, 6300-6400 area is very good for long entry as it gives best risk/reward ratio, because this area is also an invalidation point.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
1
Pullback todayMorning guys, Market almost has hit our minor 6400 COP target that we've mentinoed today on our forum. Still, it is not enough to break bearish context yet. Despite recent upside action, market was not able to return in rectangle consolidation yet, and in fact, stands in range of the collapse that has happened on Monday. Since we have "222" Sell pattern here, on 1H chart, and COP target has been hit - at least 3/8 pullback should follow. Depending on retracement depth, we will see, should we expect any other upside action in nearest future. Another warning moment is possible bearish grabber that could be formed today on daily chart.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
6030 drop is a first step to 5100$ targetMorning guys, We keep our long-term bearish view on BTC with 5100 extended target. Meantime, we wide daily AB=CD 6034$ target and it seems that it will be first destination point. Yesterday we've discussed scenarios of short entry and thought that pullback to 5/8 resistance might be good way to sell the rally, but now, on houry chart we have pennant/triangle consolidation with signs of bearish dynamic pressure, which suggests drop right from current levels.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
5100$ target for BTCMorning everybody, finally we've got an action on BTC market, which confirms our bearish view. We think that BTC now stands under scrutiny revaluation by investors, and not in positive direction. Fundamentally we do not see any long-term supportive factor for BTC. Technically, weekly chart shows clear signs of bearish dynamic pressure. While MACD trend stands bullish, price is forming lower tops. Within few weeks we think that BTC will hit 5100 target of weekly butterfly. Today upside retracement to 6330$ 5/8 Fib resistance is possible, which we think should be good area for short entry
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
6520 seems good level to go shortMorning guys, Finally some activity lets us hope on appearing of patterns. We keep our bearish view on bitcoin and still suggest short entry at any attractive level and bearish pattern on the back. Now our attention is on 4H chart. Right now BTC has completed "222" Sell. But, as CD leg of inner AB-CD pattern is a bit faster than AB, we keep hope that price could move slightly higher and form Butterfly "Sell". It is interesting that potential butterfly reversal point coincides with 3/8 Fib resistance around 6520$ area
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Dropping our time frame to find at least somethingMorning guys, BTC shows so weak volatility that it couldn't even complete the minimal upside targets. Still now on 1H chart it is a clear shape of pennant/triangle pattern which potentially is continuation one, i.e. bearish in our case. We still keep our bearish view on BTC and do not see any factors that could support demand for BTC right now. Thus, any bearish continuation pattern inside the triangle could be used for short position taking.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten