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BTC direction will be estimated after breakoutMorning, guys It is difficult to comment spaghetti chart of BTC that we have right now, but we'll try. Speaking on larger perspective, since the reason for rally was not fundamentals or economy value of BTC but force-major technical situation, we suggest that chances on drop are better than on upside reversal. Here again an issue of absence of regulation appears and investors again will think about risks of BTC as financial asset. Technically, final direction, whatever it will be, will be estimated on a breakout of huge rectangle that we have, range of the Monday's rally. target will be the height of this range (~600$) counted in direction of breakout. Meantime, while BTC is coiling inside, all that we could do is try to get some small patterns. One of them is "222" Sell that could appear around 3/8 Fib resistance level of ~6520. This will be chance to make scalp shorts. In general we suspect that sequence of such events as Mt. Gox crush, now is Bitfinex and Tether issue and no regulation of BTC market will significantly reduce attractiveness of cryptos for potential investors. Besides, BTC gives no % return on investments, this is also valuable issue on an upside rate cycle in US.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
BTC is preparing for downside breakoutMorning guys, Yesterday we've said that BTC has no fundamental or technical background for growth and force-major situations that we've got yesterday never lasts too long. Conclusion of our view on Monday was - this spike is good chance to go short at better price level. Price action today doesn't provide us clear patterns that nuances point that BTC looks heavy. Take a look - on 30 min chart we have bearish engulfing pattern of huge size. During pullback from the top BTC has broken major 5/8 support area and was not able to return back, now any minor upside attempts are pressed by sellers. As a result we have pennant pattern in progress, which stands more in favor of downside continuation. As a bottom line - we keep our bearish view. For more detailed discussion - visit our forum by signature link, there we put daily videos on BTC.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
5
BTC-short on any upside pullbackMorning guys, BTC has shown outstanding rally today, that was impossible to foresee as technically as fundamentally. This is force-major issue - Bitfinex has a problems with Noble bank, where major assets stand and Tether has a problems with liquidity then, to keep BTC-USD peg ratio. This has triggered explosive demand for exchange assets that investors hold in Tether and Bitfinex for crypto currencies. It means that this reaction will be short term, because it doesn't have any fundamental reasons, and when the wave of exchanges will exhaust, BTC should return to previous levels. We think that this is good opportunity to go short. On daily chart we have perfect AB=CD "222" Sell" at 5/8 Fib resistance and daily overbought area. Now we need to keep an eye on hourly chart and watch for AB-CD upside retracement and smaller "222" Sell, which should give us acceptable area for position taking.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
5900$ is next BTC targetMorning guys, It seems that our bet on collapse yesterday was correct - as soon as market has reached 3/8 Fib level drop has happened. Now market has completed some intraday targets. It means that within few hours minor pullback is possible, but we keep our bearish sentiment and look for 5900$ target on BTC. So, 3/8 retracement again, as yesterday is an area to sell again... Also - take a look at our previous ideas, dedicated to stock markets and our charts of DAX and NASDAQ... and don't tell that we didn't warn you. This is beginning of the catastrophy, guys...
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Minor upside bounce todayGreetings, It seems our bet on collapse yesterday was correct and BTC indeed has reached lower border of the triangle. This action has completed AB=CD leg and gives us 1H "222" Buy pattern. Still, we are not exciting on it too much. Recent collapse was fast and we treat this "222" just as background for minor pullback. Most probable is just 3/8 retracement to ~6600$ area, but not higher than 5/8 level @ 6650$ After that we expect that downside action will continue and treat today's bounce as a chance to go short. Our longer-term view stands intact and it's bearish.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
6500$ is a vital level for short-term perspectiveMorning guys, BTC shows very narrow price action, activity has dropped significantly, so we do not need even any update on daily and 4H analysis. Today is NFP release and preliminary balance stands not in favor of BTC as market mostly expects to get good numbers. Anyway, BTC stands tight and is forming something like reverse H&S on 1H chart. Whatever it will be - 6500$ area has been tested multiple times and supports BTC from collapse. This level will be crucial today either. Drop below it could trigger chain of breakouts of lower stand levels and trigger action to our downside targets that we've mentioned before on 4H chart. Standing above 6500$ and breaking 4H trianlge up could turn short-term sentiment to bullish
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
BTC looks heavyMorning guys, our 1H H&S pattern has been completed on Friday by occasional spike up of NFP release. Longer term analysis mostly makes us to look south. It means that every time when market will come to long-term trendline - it is time to go short, especially if we have some bearish continuation/reversal pattern. Now it is around 6800 - 7000$ on daily chart. Longer term analysis holds us from taking any long position. It will be possible if long-term triangle will be broken up. Now we see more chances of 6000$ breakout. Please follow our signature link to see other charts - weekly, 4H, 1H.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
1
EUR up to 1.1623 then down to ~1.1560Greetings guys, So, yesterday market has touched our 1.15 support area and neckline of 4H H&S pattern that we've talked recently and still keep in focus. Now it's time to talk on upside perspectives. Following the harmony of the pattern, upside action should reach 1.17-1.1730 area. Our butterfly has worked perfectly and market turns up. Now, on 1H we're watching for minor reverse H&S pattern, with upside continuation to 1.1622 Fib resistance first and drop to 1.1560 - 5/8 Fib support second.
Long
by Sive-Morten
BTC looks to heavy for upside contextMorning everybody, Recent price action makes us keep bearish scenario valid. BTC action looks heavy, no signs of thrust up. Current action as on daily chart as on 4H chart looks like retracement after fast drop. Besides, we have uncompleted our major daily 5900$ target. Putting it all together, our expectation stands with downward continuation. The only uncertainty is not about the target but around the point where this action should start. Either it will start right from here, or, market could form 1H "222" Sell". Please for daily and 1H patterns visit our signature link, dedicated to BTC analysis.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
EUR is tending lowerMorning guys, Last week was a reversal one right from strong daily resistance. As a result, we've got bearish engulfing pattern on weekly chart, which, as a rule, takes the shape of AB=CD action on lower time frames. Since we also could recognize H&S shape here, our expectation is EUR should reach ~1.1450 area, by forming right shoulder and upside retracement first, as it is shown on the chart: Deeper all time frames EUR analysis and fundamental market background you could find on our signature link.
Short
by Sive-Morten
BTC on crossroadsHey everybody, While we keep bearish context on daily chart still, since market was able to hold inside the channel - our bearish scenario was not realized. As result market has followed to bullish MACD divergence and completed 1.618 AB-CD inside the channel. Now price stands very close to 6900 Fib resistance area. Also we have larger AB=CD pattern with 7100$ target. Today we expect some technical pullback from 6800-6900 area, just because of resistance stands here. Next week, breaking up the previous top will lead market to 7100 target, where potentially we could get large "222" Sell pattern. If market will not be able to break recent top at all - we could get butterfly and downside action will start right from current point. So let's watch for pullback and see, whether it will turn to reversal or not.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
BTC short-term snapshotMorning everybody, Market stands in sideways upside channel action that we clearly see on 4H chart. Since this channel has started right after miserable plunge, it mostly has features of a retracement, a kind of flag consolidation. Hence, sooner or later, retracement should be over. This makes us keep our daily bearish view on BTC with 5900 target. On intraday chart we have two moments to watch for today. First is trendline support, this is crucial line here. While market stands above it - it keeps chances on upside action For example, today "222' Buy pattern could be formed. But, breaking of this line will shift "222" to butterfly probably and lead price to 1.618 target of our AB-CD pattern here. Recent Fed statement mostly supportive to USD, and honestly I would watch any upside action as a chance to go short with better price, rather than trade it long. Other charts - 4H and 1H with "222" we've put on our forum, just follow our signature link.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
$5900?Morning everybody, Yesterday we've provided two possible scenarios for BTC. First scenario was destroyed by price collapse below neckline of 4H Double bottom pattern. Usually this type of action leads to drop below the bottoms, which agrees with our daily 5900$ target. Our view on BTC was bearish and is bearish and it was just a question from which level downside action will be re-established. It seems that this process stands underway. Here is some phantom bullish hope exists for upside turning, but, to be honest, with short-term bearish view on FX and gold markets, Fed ahead and breaking of double bottom pattern, I would watching for rallies to sell into with 5900 target.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten