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Fed reaction is weakMorning folks, So, first dive has happened. While all other markets - FX, Gold, Stocks show positive reaction on Fed statement - BTC can't support the major trend. This is indirect sign of weakness. Now price mostly is supported by 4H K-support area that you could see in our previous update. We do not see any reasons to take off the table our 28-28.5K target by far. To change the view we need stronger bullish context, reversal patterns that we do not have now. Thus, let's see what will happen around 29.8K resistance area. Supposedly it might be interesting for another short entry. In a case of upside breakout, most probable destination point is 30.3K and context could start changing...
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
1
Just waitingMorning folks, Situation is changing slowly here. Recent news of re-filling of big whales ETF registration with the SEC mostly have been ignored, as we do not see any inspiring action here. It means that overall technical picture has not changed too much. Our major bearish patterns are still in place - daily bearish engulfing, weekly bearish grabber. Markets looks heavy by far and shows inability to break through resistance. This makes us keep our trading plan and consider scenario with downside AB-CD, somewhere to 28-28.5K area. Later we could say this with more precision. By this reason we do not consider long positions now.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
1
Downside scenario is still validMorning folks, I've prepared but forgot to place update yesterday... So, as we've mentioned in recent two weeks, BTC seems has not enough power to proceed upward action immediately. Recent reactions, and inability to join other markets with CPI rally tells, that downside pullback scenario still stands on the table. Last time we've discussed perfect engulfing pattern on daily chart, and possible downside AB-CD, based on it. Target is the same around 28-28.5K area which is the support on 4H chart. Now, on 1H chart we see that upside bounce, based on H&S is over (yesterday it was still in progress), and we consider 2nd leg of extension down. Theoretical chances exist that BTC could try to touch 5/8 resistance first, showing more extended upside bounce, before downside leg starts, but right now we do not see sighs of it, because H&S is done. If even this will happen, I mean 5/8 bounce, it doesn't change the core of scenario with large AB-CD downside pattern, but, just will change slightly the starting point.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
weak CPI reactionMorning folks, Today it is mostly sentiment analysis rather than technical one - because you will not find any more or less clear patterns on 4H chart now. But, what is really interesting - weak CPI reaction. Take a look at gold, at FX market and compares to BTC. Something is wrong here with the mood. ETF driver has exhausted, and market needs the new one, but doesn't exist by far. That's why we do not see reasons yet, to cancel our previous view that BTC could show deeper retracement, supposedly to 4H K-support area around 28.5-28.8K
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
More bearish signs appearMorning folks, So, the ping-pong action that we've discussed last time is under way, but, Friday's performance was dramatic and shows weakness. BTC was not able to proceed higher, forming huge reversal bar on daily chart and bearish grabber on weekly. Although they coul have serious consequences, but for now we do not talk about breaking the tendency or something of this kind. Nearest support stands around 28K, so this should be frist target of potentially deeper retracement. Still, as price still stands inside our range - let's get first the touch of the lower border. And then see what will happen. We do not consider any new long positions by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
1
IndecisionMorning everybody, So, first euphoria around BlackRock's ETF starts to fade and market immediately turns to indecision performance. Although our last time scenario has been completed accurately and BTC has re-tested the top, it was not able to proceed higher and continue major upside tendency. This makes us think that some time it could spend in flat, which is best scenario. But we also do not exclude more extended down, to 28.5K major support area. As usually we do with the range - depending on your preferable direction watch for patterns inside the range, take position closer to opposite borders or use stop entry orders around borders for the case of breakout. Now we do not have any clear patterns.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
31.5 KMorning folks, As you understand all this rally and sentiment is based only on anticipation of BlackRock&Co ETF approvements from the SEC. Thus, recent volatility also has happened due to the same driving factor. SEC said that Fidelity files are inadequate, but later releases commentaries that the file should be changed a bit and re-send. As a result, on daily chart we've got two bullish grabbers, that suggest upward action at least to 31.5K top. Overall performance also suggests the same - market stands in tight pennant consolidation. Intraday performance is very choppy and stable. Usually this happens, when market prepares to challenge the top. Let's see
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Preparing for breakoutMorning folks, BTC keeps positive mood. Technically picture looks bullish. Price is forming tight pennant shape near the top - classical sign of preparation for breakout. But, keep in mind, of this bullish stuff is based only on Blackrock ETF file. The driver for the market is purely external. Just think what will happen, if SEC will deny the file, as it was with Fidelity two years ago... Thus, it is good looking now, but who knows, what will happen tomorrow. Pay attention to risk management. And yes, if everything will be OK with BlackRock and Fidelity files - nearest mid term target is 36-38K
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Two things to controlMorning folks, BlackRock ETF file has made an explosive action in the news and triggered strongest rally on BTC of a last time. Technically this is good sign for the bulls, pointing that BTC starts new extension mode. Usually you're watching for two things on this stage. First is - market has not changed its mind and erased the rally. Second - strong support areas where you could consider long entry. For now, 28.30-28.80 looks interesting. Besides BTC was at daily overbought, which makes a bit deeper retracement probable.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
28-28.5 K pullbackMorning folks, With SEC problems to put under control Coinbase/Binance, attack on G. Gensler from some Senators and Congressmen and BlackRock bill to register ETF have changed BTC background significantly. If everything will be realised, then it will be absolutely different market in terms of regulation. It will loose freedom but a lot of money will be pour in. Thus, all this stuff is reflected in price. Market confirms bullish context, but now stands at overbought. So, we expect tactical bounce to 28-28.5 K-support area, and intend to consider it for long entry. Mid term upside target now is around 36-38K area
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
27-27.2K is in rangeMorning folks, BTC, on a background of common euphoria and anticipation of sooner Fed easing and QE has shown nice intraday rally, exceeding the level that we've specified as a target of retracement and potential resistance. Thus, expected bounce happened, but it has appeared to be much stronger. Now we have bullish reversal swing and a kind of reverse H&S shape. This let's us consider ~ 25.5-26K area support, where potentially right arm's bottom should be formed, for possible entry with bullish scenario. Nearest target is around 27-27.2K 4H resistance area. Just be aware of strong downside action and breakout of major 5/8 Fib support level around 25K. These two things that we do not want to see when we consider bullish continuation.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
SEC on FireMorning folks, We warned even in February that regulation will become one of the major drivers this year. And now we're getting only fist fruits. Our scepsis on reliability of current rally is confirmed by price action and explains why we haven't considered any long entry despite, at first glance, solid BTC jumps. On Thu, last week, we already warned about potential weakness on daily chart, as market was not able to re-start upward action from strong support area. Chances on downside continuation increases. On daily target remains around 24.2K. On this, 4H chart we have two more intermediate targets, based on potential butterfly. Market is forming flag consolidation right above the lows, which could mean preparation for challenge.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Tight SEC holdingsMorning folks, So, SEC seriously starts working with crypto. If you believe that G. Gensler will easily relief this subject - you're wrong, we're just at the beginning of nightmare for Binance and Coinbase. Just understand that stocks regulation is detailed statement of owners, reserves, cashflows etc. etc. And I'm sure that a lot of blank spots will come on the surface if real regulation starts. Traders do not like "regulation" topic, treating its boring, but we've warned about it two months ago in our fundamental report, dedicated to regulation topic. Now what? Well, in short-term, while SEC is preparing next step and while the court will consider initial lawsuit bill, BTC could get relief. But, at the same time, chances on downside continuation are solid. Still, if you would like to buy - technically you have reasons to do this. On daily chart we have nice bullish engulfing pattern, including reversal session, and here, on 4H chart it takes the shape of reverse H&S, suggesting upside extension. Price is already at the bottom of right arm - particularly point for decision making. Don't hide stops too low, use puny reverse H&S pattern on 1H. This, at least minimize your risk. Bears, it turn, should wait for H&S failure and drop under 26K lows. In this case downside action starts, supposedly to next daily target around 23.5-24K area. Guys, I place the direction for this analysis as "long" just because of technical picture, but personally I will not participate in this trade due to high legislative risks.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
26778Morning folks, We're keep watching for BTC suffering around bullish vital 26.5K support area. First pullback looks not impressive and is looking not like the start of new upside action. Now, market is coming on 2nd test. For the truth sake, our preferable scenario is downside breakout, just because of not friendly fundamental background. This week US Treasury starts grabbing liquidity for new 170 Bln Bond issues. Not too much, right, but this will happen week by week until the end of 2023, and until they grab ~1.5 Trln. Add here the Fed's QT of 95 Bln/week... So we will see... Meantime, today we have to watch for 26778 daily close price. If BTC will be able to hold above it, it keeps chances on some upside continuation. Breaking our support of 26.5K area means that we're going to next support area around ~24K. If you want to know precise downside targets, watch the video.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
26.5-26.8 is a vital area for the bullsMorning folks, As we've warned you last time - don't be too happy with debt ceil rally, as it is nothing to celebrate by far. Formally, BTC keeps bullish scenario valid, but it stands at the edge. We suggest that 26.5-26.8 is a vital area for the bulls, because this is last logical retracement level. Downside breakout opens road to next 23K support and target area. It means that bears should wait for breakout under 26.5 or lower to think about short entry, while bulls should wait when xop (blue) target will be reached, then turn to 1H chart and watch for bullish pattern (say, reverse H&S) for position taking.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Tricky rallyMorning folks, So, Debt ceil achievement, as any external factor, has brought its own adjustment to technical picture. BTC emotional reaction is understandable, but what will happen, when, say bill will stuck in Congress or Senate? In both Houses we have very fragile majority of Rep and Dems correspondingly. But, most interesting - what will happen to BTC (stocks and other markets) when US Treasury will come on stage and start sucking all liquidity that it could? So, I wouldn't overestimate recent BTC reaction. Still, in short-term, 29K XOP target could be reached. We do not consider new shorts by far, waiting when upside momentum will exhaust. Around 29 K resistance we get big "222" Sell pattern. And It takes bulls awhile, how it would be better to buy. From risk/reward ratio, it makes sense to take position only if you could enter/place stop not lower than 27K, because target is just 1K above the market.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Fragile backgroundMorning folks, So, BTC confirms our suggestion of weakness and slipped a bit lower. It is big temptation to think about possible upside reversal, treating this price shape as "222" Buy, or even potential double bottom, but I wouldn't hurry up with this conclusion. In general, I would wait for more bullish signs. If this is upside reversal indeed - market very soon will make itself evident. With major upside target around 37-38K area, we should have a lot of chances to step in, once upside action starts. Besides, we see few tricky moments here. First is, price performance on daily chart, that re-tests achieved 26K target. Second, here, we have "222" Buy, but CD leg shows acceleration that is not good sign for the bulls. All in all, at least for me, bullish context is not sufficient, and I'm afraid that "222" easily will shift to butterfly with 25.3K target that we've considered last time. You could not sell, but be aware of taking long position too early.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Even weaker than we thoughtMorning folks, Last time we've discussed possible upside reaction on daily target and support area, and suggested, that BTC could try to take it in a shape of upside AB-CD pattern. Since we were not considering and are not considering right now any long positions due to our fundamental view on BTC. And upside bounce should be nice chance to sell at good price. But now it seems that BTC even weaker than we thought and is not able to show even upside AB-CD action. On daily chart we see signs of bearish dynamic pressure and the grabber suggesting drop to new lows. Overall performance, as you could see hardly looks like bullish reversal. Price action is heavy. So, we still do not consider any longs and suggest that downside action could take the shape of the butterfly. Nearest (but not last) downside target stands around 25.3K
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
1
28.5K at bestMorning folks, Once our first major daily target around 25.7-26K has been completed, BTC has started reasonable retracement. By the price shape we can't treat it as upside reversal and suggest that most probable it could become an AB=CD shape up to 28.4K area, at best. Then, we think that downside action could continue. Our next downside daily target stands around 23.5-24K and we still keep it valid. We do not consider it, but if you want, you could think about long entry with tight stops, somewhere under 26.5K lows. Still, our major scenario is bearish and we consider upside 28.4-28.5K resistance area mostly for short entry purposes.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
PatienceMorning folks, So, our 1st daily H&S target is completed perfectly, in a way of downside AB-CD, with CD leg shape in a way of butterfly pattern. The question is - should be we buy already? I would say - no. First is, because daily H&S also has 1.618 ultimate target around 24K that agrees with major daily support area of 23.8-25K. But not this moment is a major reason. Take a look at overall performance - what bullish you could see in current action? Nothing. We do not have any signs of thrust, we do not have any clear bullish reversal patterns. Overall news and fundamental background hardly could be called as "friendly" for BTC rally. That's why we suggest to wait a bit and see what will happen. This is just for example, as one of the possible scenarios - if we get this H&S, then we could consider long entry around 27K. If nothing bullish will be formed - we need to prepare for another downside leg. And, to be honest, this is our preferable scenario for now.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
26KMorning folks, We do not need to make drastic shifts to our trading plan as BTC is going accurate with it. The core is daily H&S pattern with 26K destination point. Next week was some risk around the top of right arm and it was seemed that BTC could break it, but it couldn't, and H&S starts to work. Now, market is coming to 27K neckline area. We do not consider any long positions. If everything will be OK - H&S major target of 26K should be reached. In more extended perspective, 25-26K has vital meaning. Downside breakout could open road to 12K and will be negative for bullish context. Conversely, ability to hold above it, will keep chances on 36-38K target intact
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
3