Morning folks, So, based on some recent news, which we think definitely are overpriced, BTC was able to show upside bounce. Our view that the major events are still ahead and 30K level should show whether the major rally starts or not. But, first - BTC has to get there. Now we have short-term bullish context and consider position accumulation around 27 and...
Morning folks, Any rally are rejecting fast due to overall fundamental background. And this is not surprising when you have 10-year yield around 4.6% (which will be 5% within a month, we think) and collapse on stock market. As you could see recent rally has been rejected fast. Now we have few targets, but nearest one is based on bearish engulfing pattern, which...
Morning folks, As we've said emotional reactions never stands for long and fundamentals sooner rather than later will take the domination again. BTC not just has reached our 26.4K target but also has broken the K-support area that was around. Now we're turning to the next one - 25.6-25.8K and do not exclude return back to 25K lows in perspective of 1-2 weeks
Morning folks, BTC has completed our target of 27.4K. Since current background is not friendly for any rally on BTC, we expect normal market reaction on completion target and strong daily resistance level, watching first for 26.4-26.5K support area.
Morning folks, Situation has not changed significantly since Thu update. We still keep our short-term upside target around 27.4K. Now price is coiling around 4H K-resistance after completion of COP target (0.618 AB-CD extension). Here we have two bullish signs. First is - tight standing right under the level suggests attempt of breakout. Second - we have...
Morning folks, BTC now is living from one news to another, with record low trading volume and no interest to the market from investors. Despite any short-term spikes, BTC has nothing to offer when Fed rate is around 5.5 and forward stock market yield is already lower than short-term T-Bills one. It makes us think that long-term bearish tendency is intact. In...
Morning folks, BTC is totally dead, very anemic and tight action. 54% of all transactions now is just deposit/withdrawal operations from broker accounts... We have three reasons to keep our bearish scenario and 24.7K target intact: uncompleted downside AB-CD (XOP) target, signs of bearish dynamic pressure (MACD is bullish while price action is not) and high...
Morning folks, As we've warned on Thursday - all this hype around Grayscale ETF is purely emotional and speculative. This topic just was used to shake the boat - that's all. Two days after everything returns back. As we've said already - we do not expect any rally if even Fidelity, BlackRock or whatever else ETF will be approved by SEC. Yes, minor emotional...
Morning folks, Poor BTC has got occasion to show the rally on a background of Greyscale Hedge Fund and its SEC dispute. SEC has been obliged by court to review its decision, but, guys, to be honest - how this relies to BTC pricing? Whether it will be Hedge fund or ETF, what's the difference. Its just the way of money investing. Besides, SEC intends to make...
Morning folks, So, markets are a bit frustrated by recent J. Powell speech and its indecision. Fundamentally nothing has changed - we still have bearish view on BTC market in long term. High interest rates and coming new spiral of inflation in the US leaves no chances to non-interest bearing BTC. When T-notes and T-bills already give 1.8% premium to S&P...
Morning folks, just minor update for our setup - we keep 24.7K intact. BTC has got unexpected support from the drop of the US interest rates, but we consider this as temporal moment. Still the butterfly pattern has not been formed. For now, we see upside target around 27K, and this is the first level where BTC could turn down again.
Morning folks, BTC performance once again shows that fundamental factors always dominate over news stream and hype. First is, we've got first Jacobi ETF in EU - and nothing. Investors start doubt about explosive reaction on BlackRock and Fidelity ETFs, whether people will bring their funds there. Second - while US yields jumped above 4% - BTC has collapsed. We...
Morning folks, So, market once again tells that fundamentals - rules, confirming our mid term bearish view and slowly but stubbornly going to our 28.1K target. Potential bullish scenario of rounding bottom (or cup), has failed, that we've mentioned last time. Now, we're watching for 28.10K downside AB-CD target, with potential continuation within few weeks to...
Greetings everybody, BTC picture remains tricky. Fundamentally, we do not see any reasons for BTC rally and keep untouched OP target that we are discussing in lat two weeks. Still, since market is forming symmetrical round bottom on 1H chart, it seems it stands now in perfect position for long entry where risk/reward ratio is maximal. It doesn't guarantee...
Morning folks, Situation has not changed. Additionally we've got few new bearish grabbers on daily chart. That's why, we do not see any reasons to change our trading plan and still watching for 28-28.3K target area. Now we do not consider any longs, let's see what will happen when (&if) our target will be reached.
Morning folks, So, our 28.5K Butterfly target was perfectly completed. Then market has shown reaction on the US downgrading from Fitch Agency. But this reaction was very short-term. As a result, we've got bearish grabber on daily chart, suggesting that our 28.1K target is still valid. Besides, US yields are rising, which makes additional pressure on BTC. Thus,...
Morning folks, So, based on BTC performance we do not see any reasons to change our view and we still keep the scenario with 28-28.5K target. BTC absolutely doesn't support main market stream, based on recent "positive" statistics of GDP, PCE, CPI etc. This is indirect sign of weakness. Here, on the chart we put the butterfly, but actually this is just one of...
Morning folks, So, first dive has happened. While all other markets - FX, Gold, Stocks show positive reaction on Fed statement - BTC can't support the major trend. This is indirect sign of weakness. Now price mostly is supported by 4H K-support area that you could see in our previous update. We do not see any reasons to take off the table our 28-28.5K target...