Bitcoin - Cyclicality in ReviewA long-awaited and overdue piece of analysis, my current view of the BTC bull market. These techniques are how I was able to gauge a market top in the previous cycle, you'll find the analysis from Dec 2017 linked to this idea.
Although countless mistakes have been made throughout the years, like everyone else, I believe this piece of analysis will be beneficial to all traders as a reference throughout the current cycle. I've been using these methods to manage my holdings and dictate when/where I should be sitting in stablecoins and when/where I should be accumulating long term holdings.
I'll structure this post as best as possible as there's a lot of points I need to get across for those to fully understand my long term view, so be patient and enjoy!
To begin we'll look at a comparison of the 2013-2015 and 2017-2018 bear markets.
As you can see the decline from market tops to market lows was extremely similar in percentage decline and duration. The most interesting point about these two cycles is the seasonality, both the all-time highs and all-time lows occurred at the same time of year.
Now let's take a look at a comparison of the 2015-2018 and present bull market.
The previous cycle lasted 1,064 days with a total increase of 12,807% which is unlikely we will exceed. The current cycle stands at a total of 770 days with an increase of 1,250% (based on the current all-time high). When you compare the two it brings up the question of whether we will see similarities in these cycles based on duration and seasonality.
Once we take a look at what bitcoin achieved within the same timeframe of 770 days in the previous cycle, it's quite clear that we have far more momentum, not to mention the fact we experienced a minor cycle from June 2019 to March 2020 resulting in a 72% correction. Bitcoin is an absolute powerhouse!
Back to the point on duration and seasonality, if we see this hold true and the current bull market lasts an average of 1,064 days it will end in November/December 2021 which is far sooner than I initially expected.
This may seem unrealistic until you look at how price is currently moving, which brings us to my core analysis and the entire focus of this post.
Comparing both cycles we can see a clear area where price begins to accelerate and when price no longer adheres to the lower support trendline. It's at this stage price gains momentum and forms a higher support trendline which we can use as a guide for future corrections.
2015-2018
Present
It's doubtful we'll see bitcoin return to the lower support trendline at $20,000, which is why I see us forming higher support and this being the base level for future corrections. Based on this information, it's realistic to expect bitcoin to return to $28,500-$27,000 resulting in an overall, healthy correction of 32-35%.
If we see this come to fruition, then the following analysis is a likely scenario going forward and we could see $75,000 within 6 weeks.
I'll continue to expand on these ideas as price progresses in the coming weeks/months.
Thank you to all those who read the entire post, if you would kindly like and share it would be much appreciated as this took some time to put together.
Six000
Bitcoin - Bearish AB=CD MMWhat's up folks, I've not shared any analysis publicly in some time so I would like to share a short term view on BTC where I see a 5-7% decline near term.
Trading Pair: BTC/USD
Time Frame: 1 Hour Chart
Formation: Bearish AB=CD Magent Move
Once we see a close below $33,820 it's likely we will see a re-test followed by a decline to the region of $31,700 where it will find strong support.
EUR/AUD - Bullish AB=CD MMExcellent swing trading opportunity just formed on EUR/AUD.
Trading Pair: EUR/CAD
Time Frame: 4 Hour Chart
Formation: Bullish AB=CD MM
Price has fully tested the potential reversal zone, I'm currently waiting on the next candle close before entering which looks like it'll be a hammer or doji.
I'll be closely monitoring the progress of price and RSI.
CAD/CHF - Bearish AB=CDPrice has fully tested the potential reversal zone of the bearish AB=CD and it looks good to short.
Trading Pair: CAD/CHF
Time Frame: 15 Minute Chart
Formation: Bearish AB=CD
I was holding off until I saw a test of the 2.0 projection at 0.73485, which happened just moments ago. The main reason being is because of the small S/R range at the AB=CD measurement, price kept testing that upper limit at 0.73400 and finally spiked to test the final measurement in the zone.
This final push up to test the 2.0 projection aligns with resistance on the 1h chart.
Finally, pay close attention to the support trendline in the chart above as we'll want to see price break and close below to confirm the move towards our first take-profit target at the 0.382 retracement.
NZD/CAD - Bullish AB=CDWhat's going on traders, I hope you're all doing well. I've been quiet on socials for a while but I'll be putting out more analysis regularly for those interested in what I'm currently trading.
Trading Pair: NZD/CAD
Time Frame: 4 Hour Chart
Formation: Bullish AB=CD
The AB=CD completion is slightly beyond the 2.0 projection at 0.8500, this is where I will re-evaluate the setup and execute the trade based on price action in this area.
I'd love to have caught the breakdown from 0.86150, that was just something special! Perfect AB=CD BAMM trade for those who are clued up in harmonic trading.
That's it from me, if you have any questions or want to share your analysis feel free to leave a comment below.
Natural Gas - Bearish BatCommodities peaking my interest this week, we've got a textbook bat pattern on the 4h chart for Natural Gas that's in the final stages of the CD leg.
The measurements for a valid bat pattern are detailed below.
XA Retracement: 0.382 - 0.50
AB Retracement: 0.382 - 0.886
BC Projection: 1.618 - 2.618
XA Retracement: 0.886
There's a butterfly pattern on the 1h chart that aligns with this larger structure, we may utilise this for a lower timeframe entry once the bat pattern PRZ has been confirmed.
Looking to jump on this by the end of next week!
Safe trading everyone :)
EUR/AUD - Bearish BAMMEUR/AUD is almost ready to go! Bearish BAMM setup has formed on the 4h chart, providing a trading opportunity with a 1:2.33 risk to reward.
BAMM trading setups rely on a valid bat pattern, you'll find the relevant measurements below.
XA Retracement: 0.382 - 0.50
AB Retracement: 0.382 - 0.886
BC Projection: 1.618 - 2.618
XA Retracement: 0.886
The time proportions of this setup are absolutely spot on so far, we'll revisit this in a few days.
Currently waiting for a break and close below 1.63100.
GBP/USD - Bullish BatGBP/USD is currently forming a bullish bat pattern on the 4h chart, providing a trading opportunity with a 1:2.24 risk to reward.
The measurements for a valid bat pattern are detailed below.
XA Retracement: 0.382 - 0.50
AB Retracement: 0.382 - 0.886
BC Projection: 1.618 - 2.618
XA Retracement: 0.886
All 3 measurements form within a close proximity in the potential reversal zone, as you can see the last number in the zone being a 1.618 alternate AB=CD.
Once price pushes lower and confirms the 0.886 measurement we can begin looking at the 1h for an entry.
Have a good week everyone!
Bitcoin - Bullish CrabWhat's going on traders, I hope you've all had an excellent weekend.
Today I'm bringing you a trading setup that I've been watching unfold over the last few days, and now things are starting to fall into place as price has just re-tested the previously broken support at $10,310.
If you're a long time follower of my ideas you'll know that the majority of my setups are based on harmonic patterns, which is the main focus point of today's analysis.
We're currently looking at a bullish crab pattern on the 4h chart for BTC/USD completing at $8980 which I've marked as the prime level to buy.
The measurements for a valid crab pattern are detailed below.
XA Retracement: 0.382 - 0.618
AB Retracement: 0.382 - 0.886
BC Projection: 2.618 - 3.618
XA Projection: 1.618
You may ask why is this the prime level to set buy orders? The main reason behind this is based on how many different measurements form within a close proximity of this price level, it marks an overall correction of 35% from $13,873 and it's at the lower end of our buying range between $9481 and $8818 which is a 7% range from top to bottom.
I'm favouring a long-term hold from $8980 when you take into account the move to $13,873 is a 54.60% gain.
If you're trading bitcoin based on margin then using several take profit targets is recommended, the first one being $10,310.
I'd also pay attention to a break above the resistance trendline, this may indicate the beginning of a move to $13,873.
Feel free to comment below if you have any analysis you would like to contribute to this idea.
Trade safe everyone!
Bitcoin - Bear Market ComparisonTraders, I believe you will like the facts put forward in today's analysis on the weekly chart for bitcoin, it's a simplistic overview of what I see happening right now.
My main focus is the comparison between the current and previous bear market, there are a lot of similarities between both cycles that we can use to our advantage.
Firstly I'd like to talk about the overall decline in both market cycles.
During 2013 to 2015 bitcoin dropped from $1170 to $150 resulting in a decline of 87% which lasted 413 days.
During 2017 to 2019 bitcoin dropped from $20000 to $3140 resulting in a decline of 84.40% which lasted 364 days.
The percentage decrease and timespan are extremely similar in both cases, you'll find an in-depth calculation of bitcoins movements from my post regarding cyclical measurements below.
Going forward if I find this would be helpful to other traders I may revise and update the measurements shown in "Bitcoin - Cyclical Measurements" so they are more relevant in the current bitcoin market.
Moving onto my next focus point in today's analysis... The re-test of weekly resistance following the recently found "market bottom" which can be seen in both cycles as shown in my analysis.
Let's take a look at the price action from 2015 to provide more detail on what I'm really looking at.
As you can see this level held extremely well prior to price declining to $150, this support turned key resistance prevented a breakout during early July 2015, which was quickly followed up by a decline of 37.70% lasting 49 days. Only after this decline did price experience a breakout and continuation to the upside which resulted in a 2 year bull market and ultimately leading to the current all time high of $20,000 after years of progression.
When we take a look at the current price action for bitcoin, it holds a similar structure.
The resistance bitcoin is now testing is much stronger than before, this support level held for 9 months with at least 5 separate tests in which it finally broke during November 2018. For anyone looking at bitcoin I would pay close attention to the next few weekly candlesticks, mainly their closing prices and figure out what it is suggesting short-term.
It is highly likely bitcoin will fall short at this weekly resistance level and history will repeat itself, the bulls will be put back in their place (for now) and we'll experience a minor correction either to the support trendline or a similar decline to the previous cycle... 37.70%?
A smaller correction to the trendline would result in a decline of 20% or less which is unlikely, if a sell-off does happen it's likely it'll break that area and push further towards $4,000.
As mentioned this all depends on the price action in the following weeks.
This post is open to discussion, feel free to leave your own analysis below.
Binance Coin - Gartley 886What's going on everyone, I hope you all had a great weekend! Today I'd like to provide a short-term technical outlook on Binance Coin (BNB/USD).
BNB/USD is in the final stages of forming a bullish gartley 886 formation on the 1h chart, providing a trading opportunity with a 1:2.5 risk to reward.
The measurements for a valid gartley 886 are detailed below.
B: 0.618
C: 0.382 - 0.886
D: 1.13 - 1.618
X to D: 0.886 (Only applies when AB=CD completes beyond 0.786)
The reversal may well take place at the 0.786 retracement but the better option would be to wait on the lower entry level.
This setup should be executed in real time based upon the price action that follows the confirmation of the potential reversal zone. My main focus is 22.27, once price tests this area I'll be dropping down to the 15m chart to look for an entry.
If price starts slowing down and consolidates in the current area it'll be unlikely I'll take the trade (I've provided an example below).
We experienced this type of price action around the C point as shown.
Remember to keep your risk in check, don't set any pending orders at 22.27 this should be executed and managed in real time.
Let's have a good week of trading!
EUR/USD - Bullish AB=CDQuick post ahead of market open, I'm looking at EUR/USD on the 4h chart with a potential bullish AB=CD setup completing at 1.10440.
Structure looks great, once price tests the PRZ we will be able to gauge further price action. As always I will keep you posted on the patterns progress and if the trade is executed!
Enjoy the rest of your Sunday :)
Litecoin - Bearish BatLitecoin has now confirmed the potential reversal zone for the bearish bat on the daily timeframe, I've been monitoring the progress of this setup for several weeks and watched the C to D leg materialise. This opportunity is purely based on technical measurements and the reasoning for a market correction is perfectly logical.
Let's quickly review the previous price legs which lead us to the current price.
The price leg from A to B measured an overall increase of 87.99% over 32 days.
This was soon corrected by an exact 30% decrease in the B to C movement lasting only 14 days.
Our focus is primarily on the C to D leg which seen a 116.82% increase "ending" at the confirmation of the 0.886 XA measurement, this move lasted a total of 55 days.
My expectation is that we will see a near term correction to the 0.382 retracement resulting in a 24.82% correction. Ultimately based on whether the reversal takes place the optimal target is the 0.618 retracement with a 40.16% decline.
Pay attention to the structure shown below on the daily chart, this provides a basic indication of how price is currently moving.
Once the reversal takes place I would monitor the support trendline in order to confirm a continuation to the 0.618 retracement.
That's it from me! Enjoy your weekend when it comes :)
XAU/USD - Bearish BatTraders, today we have XAU/USD on the daily chart with a valid bearish bat pattern.
The measurements for a valid bat pattern are detailed below.
B: 0.382 - 0.50
C: 0.382 - 0.886
D: 1.618 - 2.618
XA Retracement: 0.886
Price has yet to confirm the PRZ which consists of a 1.618 AB=CD, 2.618/3.14 BC and 0.886 XA retracement.
Once the final 0.886 measurement has been confirmed we need to analyse price action in this zone to determine the extent of the reversal.
Have a good week everyone!
CHF/EUR Bullish Bat formationA day or so ago the candles formed a bullish bat. The RSI looks good and the support trend line is also aditional support. I placed the SL at the next resistance/support. Im still thinking of taking it down just benieth it to let some room for the price to bounce back of it incase it would drop as far. TP ar as always at 0.382 and 0.618.
Let me know what u think :)
USD/JPY - Bearish Deep CrabUSD/JPY is currently forming a bearish deep crab pattern on the 4h chart, providing a trading opportunity with a 1:2.6 risk to reward.
The measurements for a valid deep crab are detailed below.
B: 0.886
C: 0.382 - 0.886
D: 2.0 - 3.618
X to D: 1.618
Keep this on the watch list! Price has just confirmed the PRZ.
Thank you for your support everyone :)
AUD/NZD - Bullish BatTraders, today we have AUD/NZD on the 15m chart with a valid bullish bat pattern.
The measurements for a valid bat pattern are detailed below.
B: 0.382 - 0.50
C: 0.382 - 0.886
D: 1.618 - 2.618
XA Retracement: 0.886
Price has yet to confirm the PRZ which consists of a 1.618 AB=CD, 2.24 BC and 0.886 XA retracement as the final ratio.
Once the final 0.886 measurement has been confirmed we need to analyse price action in this zone to determine the extent of the reversal.
Have a good week everyone!
USD/SGD bearish bat on daily timeframeWe have a bearish bat pattern on the daily time frame and a nice double top, better visible on the H4 chart to add some more confluence to the trade. We also have nice rejections from the S/R area @ 1.37453.The two targets are represented by the green lines and the SL is shown as the red line.
Trade safe :)