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AUDCAD - Bullish CypherLooking forward to a new week, I have added the AUD/CAD to my watchlist- keeping my eye on a bullish cypher pattern on the 4 hour chart. If you scroll back on this timeframe you can see our PRZ has landed in an area where there is a history of price consolidating as support or resistance, as well as times where price has quickly reversed. Keeping this in mind, I expect to see some nice price action should price reach this level. As always I will be analysing the candles for signs of reversal- hammers, engulfing candle, you know how it goes... With this pattern our first Take-Profit level will fall exactly on 0.98, with our final target for 0.98784. With any pattern, risk to reward should be at least 1:2. In this instance we are doing just that as our stop-loss should be below the point of X. This may vary for people depending on when they enter. The stop-loss and profit targets should ever move, so if you enter slightly lower than the PRZ you would see a small difference. Cypher ratios B = 0.382-0.618 C = 1.272-1.414 X to D = 0.786 *To anyone drawing this pattern, please remember to use the Cypher tool- NOT the XABCD tool as normal for other harmonic formations* I am currently short the AUDJPY, so I do expect some further weakness from the AUD (see below). I'll update further once price has reached our PRZ. Have a good week guys!
Long
by KyleMcQuade
6
GBP/NZD - Bullish BatHello traders, here we have GBP/NZD on the 1h chart with a valid bullish bat pattern. All-round excellent opportunity with over 1:2 risk to reward. The measurements for a valid bat pattern are detailed below. B: 0.382 - 0.50 C: 0.382 - 0.886 D: 1.618 - 2.618 Final X to D: 0.886 This is one to watch right now, I thought I'd share this before heading off for the day. The D point forms on a key daily support level, I will share more analysis as the pattern progresses. I'll be looking for additional confirmation before taking the trade!
Long
by LewisGlasgow
5
GBP/CHF - Bearish CypherIt's been a busy week of charting so far, and now I'm looking at a potential bearish cypher on the 1 hour chart. You can see from my analysis of the daily chart below that price has begun to test resistance at the high before the X point- meanwhile price has recently made consistent higher highs and higher lows. However after the recent re-test of the high at our X, we have now seen a lower low. This is a sign that growth in this pair is easing and we may need some big news before higher highs are made. Within the next 24 hours we will see the release of the Swiss Unemployment Rate- as well as the British Trade Balance and GDP estimate. I wouldn't like to take a trade while this news is being announced, however it may be the cause we need to push price towards our PRZ for another re-test of resistance. Cypher ratios B = 0.382-0.618 C = 1.272-1.414 X to D = 0.786 Please keep an eye on the candlesticks as they will tell us which direction price is looking to turn. I will update the analysis as time goes on. Risk with this trade is at 1:2.
Short
by KyleMcQuade
Ripple - Measured MoveI'd like to present a short post covering Ripple in relation to the market-wide correction. As mentioned in my Bitcoin post the magnitude of the correction for most cryptocurrencies has been amplified as the entire market capitalisation dropped from $830 billion to $310 billion, which is over a 50% decline market-wide. As you can see from April/May 2017, price increased by 1453% within 27 days followed by a correction of 72% inside 10 days. This was followed by a period of congestion which lasted 194 days until we experienced the next bullish cycle. Now looking at the current cycle which started in December, price increased by 1545% inside 28 days which is extremely similar to the move back in April/May 2017. This was followed by a correction which now stands at 82%. XRP has lost 82% of its value within 33 days, which is 3x longer than the previous correction, although this was followed by 6 to 7 months of congestion. The lowest price I see XRP returning to is $0.44 at the previous high which means it would be standing at an 87% decline from the all time high. I will be waiting for the next daily close to determine if the market has bottomed, which to me it appears it has, we cannot be sure for now. From here we can use this opportunity to accumulate XRP at low levels.
by LewisGlasgow
14
XAU/USD Bullish SharkHey guys, Today I am looking at Silver, with a bullish shark formation on the 4 hour time frame. Normally for this pattern I would feel more comfortable if the B point was at least 0.382, but the level of support at the PRZ is very strong. The support is holding as high as the weekly timeframe, which is why I am feeling drawn to this trade. Shark Ratios are as follows: C = 1.13-1.618 D = 1.618-2.618 X to D = 0.886-1.13 There have been a few spikes below the support- my stop loss has been placed below all of these (still with a 1:3 risk). As always I will be watching the candles to signal a reversal before entering. I will update everyone as I go! :) Good luck guys.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by KyleMcQuade
NZD/JPY Bullish 5-0 Type-II Entry Hi guys, Here I'm on the 4 hour chart, looking a potential type-ii entry on a bullish 5-0. The pattern has already made an absolutely PERFECT 5-0 formation; all key reversal areas are bang on our key retracement/extension levels. Price has already touched the 50% retracement for the D point, however if price returns to re-test this level we should be looking for a long entry! With this pattern, price should be trader until it re-tests the previous high at the C point .Our stop-loss should be below the 0.618 level, as if price closes below here then the pattern is no longer valid. By keeping the stop below we are minimising the possibility of price testing our stop before the rally to our TP begins. With this in mind, there is also an inverse head and shoulder pattern forming on the daily/weekly chart with the C point at the neckline. The right shoulder has not yet formed and I would not be surprised if this is it in the making. Should this be the case, I will adjust my stop loss once price either meets the neckline or the first TP level of 0.382 (whichever comes first). 5-0 Ratios B = 1.13-1.618 C = 1.618-2.24 D = 0.5 I am also short the GBP/NZD AND expecting a drop on the AUD/NZD if similar support is broken (see below). Using this position as sentimental confluence, it is conceivable that the NZD strength may be present in the Yen pair also. If price does return to the D point I will drop down to the 1 hour time frame to judge my entry. Analysis will be updated as time goes on! Thank you.
Long
by KyleMcQuade
2
GBP/NZD Bearish BammHi guys, I have entered this bearish bamm formation on the GBPNZD. The Bat Action Magnet Method (BAMM) is triggered when the C-D wave of a potential bat pattern has broken the support/resistance of the B point. Price has broken the support at the B point and since re-tested this area as resistance. As most traders will know, support and resistance acts as a magnet, pulling price towards key levels. As harmonic patterns are in themselves price action formations built around key levels in the market, this approach normally works very well! The next level of support is actually a key level on the daily and weekly timeframes. I like to wait for a re-test of the resistance before entering, which has already took place, and I'm also looking at the symmetrical triangle that is forming on the 30 minute chart. I have already entered, however if you feel you need further confirmation, feel free to follow this also (see below). Bat Ratios B = 0.382-0.5 C = 0.382-0.886 D = 1.618-2.618 X to D = 0.886 Risk to reward is 1:3 as I feel this gives us a good average return whilst keeping a healthy stop loss for any volatility that may occur. I will re-assess the bat bat pattern as a whole once price has reached the PRZ. Again, I am in this trade at the moment so feel free to enter, or wait for the break of the triangle. Good luck everyone!
Short
by KyleMcQuade
The Major Impact of High Risk TradingI feel this post is well overdue, and considering the current market standing in cryptocurrency it couldn't have come at a better time. Today's post will be an eye opener for many, and others common knowledge. I hope you guys gain a lot of value from my insights and use this to your advantage in the markets. The following educational post relates to the trader behind the charts, it is not specific to one financial market meaning it applies to all but today, I will be talking about this in relation to the cryptocurrency market. The Major Impact of High Risk Trading Right now, the cryptocurrency market has lost 50%+ of its overall value, meaning a lot of new and existing traders are suffering huge losses (to anyone who comments "you only lose when you sell" - we'll talk about this later in the post) and their portfolios are in the red. I receive a lot of messages on a daily basis, recently they have been of the following context. Follower: "I'm holding XRP (BTC, ETH, TRX, ETN, LTC, the coin doesn't matter, the message does) from $3 and it's now at $0.70, should I sell?" I know most of these messages are out of panic, looking for an option, hopefully advice on how to regain those losses. Do I tell people to buy or sell? Of course not, it's their investment, however I do provide my insights on where the market is heading next to help them understand their situation. If you are this person, there is good news... You've already held through a serious correction, why are you thinking about selling now? Take a look at the chart shown, as you can see I have illustrated "percentage loss" which is of course the amount you have lost on one given position or your entire portfolio. We have "percentage difference from previous loss" now let's say for example you're holding XRP at a 33% loss and this quickly changes to a 50% loss, you can agree the difference is 17%. And finally we have "percentage gain to break-even", this points out the required increase in capital to regain the losses that have occurred. If you invested $1,000 in XRP $2 and sold at $1, you can agree this is a 50% loss in capital and you now have a $500 portfolio. To regain those losses and return to break-even you would need to gain 100% which is 2x. Let's start to break down the numbers. If your portfolio is down 33% you will need to gain 50% to get back to break-even. At this point, you are concerned but you're convinced the market will pick back up next week, so you don't take any action. The following week your portfolio declines a further 17% which brings the overall loss to 50%, to get back to break-even you need to gain 100%. This is when panic sets in, you've went from $10,000 to $5,000 in one month, the entire market is down and at this point you consider selling. Now, you can see where this is heading. The market declines a further 16% bringing your portfolio into a total decline of 66%. At this stage you now need to increase your portfolio by 200% to get back to break-even. What do you noticed when you get further and further down the list? The percentage difference becomes smaller but the percentage gain to return to break-even increases drastically. If you lose 83.3% of your portfolio, which I have witnessed, you will need to increase your portfolio by 500% which is 6x just to get back to break-even, a further 2.4% decline would require a 600% increase which is 7x. Am I telling you to sell? No, not at all, there is an extremely valuable lesson here. Let's say you are the person who has bought Ripple (XRP) at $3 and it's your only crypto, you're now holding at $0.70 which is a decline of 75%+ meaning you need to increase your portfolio by 300% to regain initial losses, which is 4x. Buying high is a rookie mistake, many people can't think of anything worse but I definitely can. Buying at the top followed by selling at the bottom. I will need to continue this idea in the updates section, it's too long.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by LewisGlasgow
35
EUR/JPY Bearish BatAnother possible position for the position traders out there on the daily chart of the EUR/JPY. Before the X point, price became slightly volatile- rapidly rising and falling- before resuming it's natural wave south. Using the X from the high following the retracement we find a bearish bat formation. Bat Ratios B = 0.382-0.5 C = 0.382-0.886 D = 1.618-2.618 X to D = 0.886 The higher the timeframe you use, the more fundamental they become so please be aware of what's happening in the market when analysing this pattern. And by all means use the lower time frames to judge an entry. See below my previous bat on the JPY against the AUD where we have seen the Yen gain significant strength. Will the Yen strength continue?
Short
by KyleMcQuade
2
Bitcoin - Market CorrectionI feel there is a need for another insightful post in regards to BTC/USD, today's analysis is on the 4h timeframe. This is following up from my post 2 months ago where I predicted the next corrective phase to begin at $20,000, from here we experienced a market decline of 50% before price settled. The magnitude of the correction was amplified as the entire market capitalisation dropped from $830 billion to $350 billion, which is over a 50% decline market-wide. We've been looking for low levels to buy bitcoin throughout January, although having two successful long positions this month price is yet to find the bottom. The current bullish bat formation looks excellent, the D point holds price at a 64% correction, which is substantial given this happened within a 6 week period. The measurements for a valid bat pattern are detailed below. B: 0.382 - 0.50 C: 0.382 - 0.886 D: 1.618 - 2.618 Final X to D: 0.886 The ratio alignment for this setup is excellent, the D point also aligns with a trend based fib-extension from A, B, C at 1.414, this is not shown on the chart. Below is a simple overview on the daily chart. We're still in a good area of support which of course aligns with the bullish bat, to me this is a reversal zone worth watching. To add, I'm using a logarithmic scale instead of the standard linear scale. Keep this setup on your watch list :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by LewisGlasgow
60
AUD/NZD Bullish SharkGood afternoon guys. Doing some generic charting today, I am looking at this bullish shark pattern. This pattern is a long way away from hitting, but will be a good buy for some position traders if price hits the expected PRZ. The PRZ is aligned with strong support on the weekly and monthly time frames. There will also be potential for this pattern to turn into a bearish 5-O. I will update the analysis when this occurs! Shark ratios: C = 1.13-1.618 D = 1.618-2.618 X to D = 0.886-1.13 Have a look at the overview below for my overview of the pair! Thank you.
Long
by KyleMcQuade
MaidSafe - Bullish BatThroughout its lifetime MaidSafeCoin has been seen to have one of the most solid structures among the altcoins; MAID is now approaching the all time low, where it should find a level of solid support. Going into the spring we are expecting the cycle to start again with a rush of buyers flooding the market in the coming months after a period of serious correction. With this in mind I have been looking at a potential bullish bat formation in a similar area to the all time low. As with all bat patterns I am looking for not only the PRZ to be tested, but for candle sticks to tell me where the market is going. A break in the bearish trendline would also be beneficial. Bat Ratios B = 0.382-0.5 C = 0.382-0.886 D = 1.618-2.618 X to D = 0.886 As always, use the ratios above to draw up your harmonic , and keep the risk at a 1:2 minimum. In this example I am using 1:3 as we have more returns, but with price still below previous support. Good luck everyone!
Long
by KyleMcQuade
3
BTCUSD Bullish ButterflyHi guys, tonight I am looking at a bullish butterfly on Bitcoin/USD. On the way up back in June 2017 we saw BTC hit resistance at the $7600 level, which them turned to support before price continued northward. Our PRZ lands at the $8200 mark, where price briefly bounced for 5 days back in November before proceeding to create new highs. As you can see from my previous bitcoin trade, these earlier support levels are holding well, so I expect this level to do so as well (see below). Using this pattern we set are looking for a TP of $11,180, with a stop loss at a minimum risk/reward of 1:2. In this instance I am specifically using 1:3 as this gives us a greater return, and the stop-loss is still below the previous level of resistance. Butterfly ratios: B = 0.786 C = 0.382-0.886 D = 1.618-2.24 X to D = 1.272 This move has already begun but should be good to go if price is to re-test the $8200 mark. I'll be updating as I go! Have a good weekend everyone. :)
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by KyleMcQuade
BTCUSD Bullish CypherThis week I am looking at a potential bullish position on Bitcoin, where support has recently been found between 9-10k (a good psychological number). Price has retested the $9100 mark and is beginning to consolidate as it approaches 10k once again, making this a good area for a double-bottom to occur. As always, this pattern comes with a 1:2 risk-reward ratio from the PRZ, but candlesticks will still be heavily monitored before any entry will be taken. Cypher ratios X:B = 0.382-0.618 A:C = 1.272-1.414 X:D = 0.786
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by KyleMcQuade
2
AUDNZD Bullish BatLooking at the Aussie-Kiwi this week, we can see a bullish bat setup, on the 1 hour timeframe, at a level of daily support (see generic overview below). The PRZ completes at 1.0862, with a preferred stop lost below the wick of previous support on the 4 hour chart. Of course, an entry may be taken at any point between the D and X levels so candlesticks will be closely monitored. NZD CPI will be released tomorrow (24/01/2018) however, this aside, the rest of this week's key economic data is focussing on the EUR, USD, GBP and CAD. As harmonic patterns are naturally occurring cycles, we should see little-to-no interference from outside fundamental factors. Bat Ratios X:B = 0.38-0.5 A:C = 0.382-0.886 B:D = 1.618-2.618 X:D = 88.6%
Long
by KyleMcQuade
Bitcoin - Bullish Deep CrabWhat's up everyone, I'd like to provide some technical thought amongst all of the madness in the crypto world right now. Bitcoin is currently forming a bullish deep crab pattern on the 1h chart, providing a trading opportunity with a 1:2.5 risk to reward. The measurements for a valid deep crab are detailed below. B: 0.886 C: 0.382 - 0.886 D: 2.24 - 3.618 X to D: 1.618 I'll be expecting price to stall out once it reaches the D point, this forms on a key level of support! As you can see from the daily chart below the pattern completes slightly above the daily support trendline. This is sufficient reasoning for a reversal to take place and seems likely considering Bitcoin has already corrected by 50% since the all time high. Keep this setup on your watch list :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by LewisGlasgow
104
CHF/JPY - Bearish 5-0Hello traders, here we have a bearish 5-0 pattern on the 1h timeframe with CHF/JPY. Price formed a valid C point at the minimum 1.618 level and is now heading towards completion at D. The measurements for a valid 5-0 pattern are detailed below. B: 1.13 - 1.618 C: 1.618 - 2.24 D: 0.50 I expect price to stall in between 50% and 61.8% retracement levels, this is a key area of resistance and most likely where price will reverse. I hope you all have an excellent week and safe trading!
Short
by LewisGlasgow
4
CADCHF Bullish CypherLater this month, the BoC are expected to raise their interest rate from 1% to 1.25%- should this go ahead we should see a rise in demand for the Canadian Dollar. Looking at the chart- price has broke strong weekly resistance, which has now turned to support. The Cypher pattern completes on the support level, where I believe price should rally if it hits this level. As always, I will be looking closely at the candlesticks for a valid entry- and keeping the risk:reward at a minimum 1:2. RSI is also approaching the oversold level. I am still holding my short position on th NZDCAD as i believe the cad will gain further strength. Cypher ratios X:B = 0.382-0.618 A:C = 1.272-1.414 X:D = 0.786
Long
by KyleMcQuade
4
The People vs. The BanksWelcome back traders, I hope you had a wonderful Christmas and New Year! We're now getting back into the charts it's a brand new year, new opportunities and what a start it has been :) cryptocurrencies are through the roof! Today I'm breaking down two assets which are breaking records and funnily enough one of cryptos most well known rivalries, ripple vs. stellar. As you will know by now, both of these cryptocurrencies have been making headlines for the past month, their growth has been tremendous and to those who took my advice at the beginning of 2017 on both of these assets will have a very nice portfolio, I've received many kind messages with people sharing their results and that's what I love most about this business! However, as good as all this sounds it's at times like this when investors are blinded by 10x and 20x returns, and I come along to bring them back to reality, markets move in cycles and I hate to see traders buy a market top or hold through a 95% correction. XRP current price = $3.68 1 month ago = $0.25 STR current price = $0.86 1 month ago = $0.09 Just take a look at those figures for a second, that's in one month alone. Similar to the moves we experienced in April/May 2017. First, let's take a look at Ripple on the left (XRP/BTC) As we can see from the chart the average increase is 1494% including the present price increase but not accounting for the 5412% total increase in 2017 as this was broken up by a 69% correction. Since the beginning of December 2017 price has increased by 1890% as XRP makes headlines all over the world, it is now the second largest cryptocurrency by marketcap. Let's take a look at the downside of these moves. As you can see these impulsive moves are followed by a correction greater than 69% and actually two of them resulting in a 95% decline. The average correction is 86%. Now, picking out a market top is not simple although I have done this in the past. If we experience a correction from the current level you can expect a correction of at least 50% before the move up continues. A lot of individuals claim XRP will hit $10 and for their satisfaction I have included a target level for this (this price level is based on the current BTC price) which is the exact same percentage increase as we seen in 2017... The total move = 5412% from low to high. If we do see price achieve $10 the correction to follow will be of significance, I expect XRP to lose more than 70% of its value at this price level. Now, we have Stellar on the right (STR/BTC) The average price increase is 2487% including the present price increase. Since September 2017 price has increased by 2794% bringing it back into the top 10 on coinmarketcap.com. We can see that both corrections for Stellar resulted in a 96% decline which is extremely similar to XRP. Again, I see a correction of at least 50% for Stellar very shortly. Taking all of this analysis into account, these charts need to be compared to the asset quoted in USD, I will update this post in the future with the comparison. I will also be updating the idea on a shorter timeframe to pinpoint where the correction will occur. Feel free to check out my previous posts on market cycles. Bitcoin: Altcoins: I wish you all the utmost success in 2018.
S
by LewisGlasgow
60
AudJpy Bearish BatThis morning, the AUD trade balance was released below consensus. Expected at a surplus of 550M; however, the release came out at a shortage of -628M. Here we have a bearish bat on the Aussie-Yen. Price is well overbought, so I will be keeping an eye on the 4 hour and daily chart candles for sign of a reversal. Price has broke the weekly trend line completely and began to consolidate- perfect conditions for harmonic patterns. I'm also looking at the NZD-CAD. The AUD-CAD will also be a good pair to analyse for a short position. Bat Ratios X:B = 0.38-0.5 A:C = 0.382-0.886 B:D = 1.618-2.618 X:D = 88.6%
Short
by KyleMcQuade
NZD/CAD Bearish Butterfly- Daily chartHi guys, here we have a Bearish butterfly pattern formed on the NZD/CAD currency pairs on a daily chart, this is a potential trading opportunity with a risk reward of just over 1:2 The valid measurements for a butterfly confirmation are: A-B: 0.786 A-C: 0.382-0.886 B-D: 1.618-2.24 X-D:1.272 I'm delaying entry on this trade because both ZND and CAD are performing weakly right now, I will wait for the overnight news announcement, test of the resistance and MACD to begin to show a sell off. I hope you's all day a great week again trading folk and good luck. Sorry that the pattern has been slightly obscured by the fibonacci tool If you wish to connect, let a comment below or send me a message
Short
by MichaelCollins18