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Six000

Market Comparison - What Will Happen to Altcoins?The question on everyone's mind right is... When will the altcoin market recover? WHAT IS GOING ON? There seems to be a serious misunderstanding on the way markets move, I see a lot of comparisons to the tech bubble, although from a cyclical standpoint the principles are similar, you need to realise that the details will always change. As you can see from my chart I have listed XRP, ETH, LTC and DASH which are all quoted against BTC. Let's take a look at all of these trading pairs individually. 1. XRP/BTC As you can see from 2014 to 2017 price went through a major correction of 95%, imagine you were holding XRP from the top... This is how many of you may be feeling right now. Many of you could still be holding XRP from the previous top. Price has corrected the exact same amount as it did previously, we're currently sitting at a 95% correction for 2017. 2. ETH/BTC Ethereum went through a major correction which lasted over 9 months, this decline was 80%. Now we are experiencing a similar move, the current correction started 6 months ago and we are at a downfall of 83%. As you can see price has kept a stable price structure on the weekly chart, providing a solid support level at the current price. 3. LTC/BTC 86% decline from 2014 to 2015. 90% decline from 2015 to 2017. Where are we now? Currently in a corrective phase at a 76% decline. 4. DASH/BTC 90% decline throughout 2014. 80% decline throughout 2015. Current decline at 73%. I don't want to drag it out too much, you guys get the gist of it. I mentioned in my BTC analysis yesterday... "as a general rule, the greater the amplitude of price during the major phase... The greater the correction will be". Think about this in comparison to the charts shown, you cannot expect an asset to increase 10x or 20x and correct 30% followed by the same move consistently. I recommend to take a step back from the charts every now and then and evaluate what is truly happening, the altcoin market won't disappear overnight. This may be a wake up call for many of you, from this point forward start taking your trading/investing seriously instead of buying into pump and dumps or chasing 1000% returns on sh*tcoins. I want what is best for everyone, don't take that too personally :) Just to add I used a logarithmic scale for all 4 charts. I will be adding more analysis to this idea, there's so much that I could not cover it all in one, I've got a lot more thought behind this. This post is open to discussion, feel free to leave your own analysis below.
by LewisGlasgow
59
EOS - Price StructureTraders, I hope you're all having an excellent weekend. EOS/BTC was requested by one of my followers and I found the price structure extremely interesting, therefore, I'd like to share my thoughts with you all. The chart shown is on the daily timeframe. Considering this asset only has over 5 months worth of price history, it has more to show than the vast majority of cryptocurrencies in the top 50. As soon as EOS became available we experienced an impulsive move over several days, followed by a 96% decline. Once the bottom was found during late October, price climbed over the period of 5 weeks amounting to a 386% increase. We're currently experiencing a correction period which is less than 45% as we speak, I'm expecting price to drop to the support level indicated which would be a 51% correction. This would be a key area to buy EOS in my opinion, at 0.00020000. Feel free to contribute to this analysis, if you have anything to share leave a comment below.
Long
by LewisGlasgow
22
GBPUSD Bat Pattern, Potential BAMM 4h - Harmonic PatternGBPUSD is in a large uptrend since the beginning of 2017, and those are shown by the diagonal Support and Resistance lines in yellow. We also have a S/R around the ~1.309 point (which works great with D Point). As you can see, we just broke out of a cup and handle that created the a valid bat pattern with the measurements A = .382 - .5 B = .382 - .886 C = 1.618 -2.618 X to D = .886 I'm looking to short (BAMM) the pattern from B to D and then BUY the reversal at D point. This is all depending on our candlesticks, and IF it breaks the long Support trend on the bottom. I'm hoping it can go through the Support, but this support has built up all year. Note: always draw it on your own chart to get exact measurements! Make sure you have confirmation candlestick patterns CLOSED before entering - it may shoot through the D reversal zone! You're welcome to repost this, just mention @corganmusic! :) For those looking to learn to trade, message me! Good luck out there!
Short
by corganmusic
1
IOTA - Bullish 5-0 (A Parabolic State)What's up traders, today I've got another outlook on cryptocurrencies and my target is IOT/BTC on the 4h chart. Price has formed a valid bullish 5-0 pattern which aligns with the majorities vision for the asset... I believe there is huge upside potential and this trading setup could potentially identify the end of the correction. The measurements for a valid 5-0 pattern are detailed below. B: 1.13 - 1.618 C: 1.618 - 2.24 D: 0.50 The B point forming at a solid 1.13 which is a failed price wave, as price quickly reversed from this level preventing the price of the asset declining further. All point of the pattern formed on exact projections, such as the C point at 2.0. The pattern officially completes at the 0.5 retracement level of B to C but in this situation I'm using 0.618 as the maximum buy point, which you will see happen frequently in these formations, price will pass 50% to test the lower level... If we see a clear close below the 0.618 the pattern is void in my opinion. As you can see we have a price gap on the left of the chart which aligns with the 3.14 projection for this parabolic move, I see the market attempting to fill this gap. I hope you all have a great weekend when it comes.
Long
by LewisGlasgow
96
Bitcoin - Cyclical MeasurementsOh another post predicting the market top for bitcoin... No, this idea is far from it, today I'd like to present the facts surrounding the technical aspect of bitcoin to help provide a better understanding of the asset. Please read the full post to gain a better understanding of what I'm looking at. Today I'm analysing the weekly chart on BTC/USD. As mentioned I'm using a logarithmic scale which presents prices in the proportional amount of percentage increase or decrease, providing us a fair representation of where bitcoin was, is and could be. I've broken down each cycle measured from the breakout of an all time high to a new all time high being the market top. Also detailing the percentage increase upon achieving targets at $20,000, $50,000 and $100,000 as there seems to be a lot of financial articles relating to these figures as the predicted long term value of the asset. This month will be interested as CME and CBOE -0.29% launch bitcoin futures . Below I have detailed the increase throughout each phase of the market from low to high on the weekly chart. The median trendline seems to be acting as a support and resistance level as price returns to it over time, I would pay attention to this going forward. As a general rule, the greater the amplitude of price during the major phase... The greater the correction will be. The first major phase we experienced was an increase of 11729% throughout 2011-2013. The correction that followed was 82%. Our second major phase was an increase of 2472% throughout 2013. The correction that followed was 87%. We're now in our third major phase at a current growth of 8697% from 2015 to present. Correction phase, yet to establish itself. I believe the correction to follow the next top will be of similarity to previous cycles, being a minimum of 50% and a maximum of 93%. I'd like to present the works on major bull trends by H.M Gartley who wrote Profits in the Stock Market (1935). How to recognise a bull market ending. 1. The daily volume has risen to an all time high. 2. Wide daily fluctuations are a regular occurrence. 3. Nearly everyone you meet appears to be in some way interested in the market. 4. Most financial news writers and financial commentators can see no reasons for any important decline. "The thought of a bear market being around the corner is not seriously considered". "A bear who presents what appear to be sound and logical reasons why a collapse is imminent, is considered to be either an out-and-out dyspeptic, or at least a very unpatriotic citizen." "He can count on being very unpopular". "Each bull market breeds a crop of traders who fail to recognise the unmistakable signs of a storm." The above is relevant to bitcoin, you should always be analysing both sides of the market. If we do achieve $20,000 I believe we'll see a major reaction. I will be adding more analysis to this idea, there's so much that I could not cover it all in one, I've got a lot more thought behind this and where the market is headed. This post is open to discussion, feel free to leave your own analysis below.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by LewisGlasgow
161
USOIL - Bearish BAMM, Bullish Bat and Market StructureToday I've brining you all an in-depth view on USOIL, firstly I'll break down the base of my analysis on the 1h chart which shows two setups, bearish bamm and bullish bat. The measurements for a valid bat pattern are detailed below. B: 0.382 - 0.50 C: 0.382 - 0.886 D: 1.618 - 2.618 Final X to D: 0.886 I understand the BAMM theory will be relatively new to most traders, this style of trading simply focuses on a breakout of the B point. Upon a break and close below/above B, in this situation below, I look to capitalise on the move towards D which confirms the potential reversal zone of the bullish bat pattern. We can see there has been various tests of this level. Taking a look at the daily chart below we can see a clear demand zone between roughly $55 and $54 which aligns with the support trendline. I'll be looking for a sell off to drive prices towards this area, from there I can further analyse the bullish bat for a long opportunity if this level of support holds. Although, I do expect price to drop lower than D to the demand zone at X. If you have any analysis to contribute feel free to leave it below :)
TVC:USOIL
by LewisGlasgow
7
Decred - Bullish CypherWe're looking at another cypher pattern but this time on the 1h chart with DCR/BTC, this is an excellent long opportunity with 1:2 risk to reward! The D point forms above trendline support on the 4h chart as shown below, I'm expecting price to stall out on this level or at completion of the pattern. The measurements for a valid cypher are detailed below. B: 0.382 - 0.618 C: 1.272 - 1.414 X to D: 0.786 Feel free to share your own analysis below, and as always trade safe!
Long
by LewisGlasgow
3
FCT/BTC - Bullish GartleyWe're now heading into a new week, I'm putting out as many potential opportunities as possible for you guys to analyse over the next few days. Right now I'm looking at FCT/BTC on the 1h chart with a bullish gartley pattern. The measurements for a valid gartley pattern are detailed below. B: 0.618 C: 0.382 - 0.886 D: 1.272 - 1.618 Final X to D: 0.786 This has formed in a key demand zone. I'll be updating all of my positions as they progress :)
FLong
by LewisGlasgow
3
MAID/BTC - Bullish ButterflyWhat's up traders, today I'm looking at MAID/BTC on the 1h chart with a bullish butterfly pattern, this has some serious potential. The measurements for a valid butterfly pattern are detailed below. B: 0.786 C: 0.382 - 0.886 D: 1.618 - 2.24 X to D: 1.272 The completion of this pattern aligns with the all time low for the asset, meaning it is a crucial area of support and a key area to buy at depression lows. In addition a 1.13 A, B, C extension completes in the potential reversal zone further confirming this zone. I'll be waiting until the pattern completes before placing the trade. As always feel free to connect with me below!
M
by LewisGlasgow
10
LONG AUDUSD Shark & 5-0 Patterns 1DBeautiful Shark pattern on the Daily. Lines right up with our measurements B = 1.13 - 1.618 C = 1.618 -2.24 X to D = .886 - 1.13 The fantastic thing about a Shark pattern is that it has a possibility to turn into a 5-0 if the reversal is at the halfway point, so you have the chance to profit twice! Making sure to have a 1:2 Risk VS Reward, in this case it's a 1:3!!! Note: always draw it on your own chart to get exact measurements! Make sure you have confirmation candlestick patterns CLOSED before entering - it may shoot through the D reversal zone! You're welcome to repost this, just mention @corganmusic! :) For those looking to learn to trade, message me! Good luck out there!
Long
by corganmusic
Ethereum - Harmonic OutlookTraders, I advise you to read this entire post to gain a better understanding of what I'm looking at. It's been a while since my last trading position on ETH, back in August price completed a valid bearish bat pattern (shown on the chart) which was followed by a decline of almost 50% in two weeks. Taking the time to reflect on Ethereum's situation from a technical standpoint the future direction is now becoming far clearer. It has been struggling to break the $300 range for sometime now but a move above $400 is on the horizon. Today I'm going to break down every aspect of the chart and explain in detail what I feel is happening from a technical perspective. We're on the 4h chart with ETH/USD. 1. Bearish bat The measurements for a valid bat pattern are detailed below. B: 0.382 - 0.50 C: 0.382 - 0.886 D: 1.618 - 2.618 Final X to D: 0.886 A closer look on the 4h chart at my previous pattern, take profit levels 1 & 2 were achieved in a relatively short time period. 2. Daily price structure Right now price is trading within a small zone, between a minor resistance and newly formed support trenldine, which aligns with levels A & C of the bearish butterfly. 3. Bearish Butterfly The measurements for a valid butterfly pattern are detailed below. B: 0.786 C: 0.382 - 0.886 D: 1.618 - 2.24 X to D: 1.272 It's not uncommon for harmonic patterns to occur one after another, especially with the previous pattern securing a nice return. Currently price is completing the C to D leg of this structure and I estimate the pattern will complete on the 30th of November based on my measurement rules shown below. The amount of time it takes price to form X to B is the projection for B to D. Now remember, this is not certain... There will be many times when patterns take 2x longer to complete and still result in a profit. I am only using my common principles to accurately determine the completion of the pattern. 4. Current price action I would focus on the basics as of right now, I'm looking for a break of minor resistance and the support trendline to hold in order for the bearish butterfly to complete. In the near future I will update this idea with my thoughts on Ethereum. If we experienced a situation where the following happened. It would still be a valid setup, as long as the C point does not exceed 0.886 and the lower trendline support is in tact. If the bearish butterfly pattern completes I will let everyone know if it is a good area to short or close long positions, what we may find it the future is price pushes to around $520 at a 1.618 extension. I hope this post has been helpful, feel free to leave a comment below.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by LewisGlasgow
43
USD/JPY Bullish SharkAlong with the long pattern on CHF/JPY, we have another bullish setup on the USD/JPY. I am currently looking at a bullish shark that has just touched the entry zone (between 0.886 and 1.3). That said, I will not look to enter until price drops lower to the lower entry level. This evening, the Japanese Trade Balance came in at 45 Billion below consensus. Now I am awaiting the consensus for next week's CPI rate (previously 0.7). A negative consensus following the recent trade balance release will all but ensure a profitable trade on either this pair and/or the CHF/JPY long. The completing of these 2 patterns at the same time also bring harmonic confluence to each pair. Across the board the JPY is sitting at support and/or showing as extremely oversold. I am expecting yen sentiment to turn bearish in the coming week. Shark ratios: A:C = 1.13:1.618 B:D = 1.618:2.618 X:D = 0.886:1.13
Long
by KyleMcQuade
CHF/JPY Bullish Bat Looking at this pair we have a bullish wedge (*See Below*). Inside the wedge we have a bullish bat pattern with an exact 50% B point. The technical analysis looks good on this pair- the pattern is meeting the wedge at a level where there has been support in recent weeks also. Looking ahead this week we have the trade balance to be released for the Swiss frank, along with the agreed consensus for the Swiss GDP and Retail Sales on Nov 30th and Dec. 1st. Retail sales came in at -0.4% on the last release. This may rise significantly heading into Christmas which wouldn't necessarily increase the value of the currency as it's just seasonal pump. An increase in GDP prior to the retail sales however would see this pair rise to our TP level. Bat Ratios X:B = 0.38-0.5 A:C = 0.382-0.886 B:D = 1.618-2.618 X:D = 88.6%
Long
by KyleMcQuade
1
CAD/CHF - Bearish BatHello traders, here we have CAD/CHF 0.02% on the 1h chart with a valid bearish bat pattern. All-round excellent opportunity with over 1:2 risk to reward. The measurements for a valid bat pattern are detailed below. B: 0.382 - 0.50 C: 0.382 - 0.886 D: 1.618 - 2.618 Final X to D: 0.886 This is one to watch right now, I thought I'd share this before heading off after a loooong day. I'll be looking for additional confirmation before taking the trade!
Short
by LewisGlasgow
23
EURCHF Bearish GartleyExpecting in a drop in the Euro across the board this week, just going through the process of picking the best set ups. As per usual, I may not take this trade depending on the candlesticks but I will keep an eye on the progression as price approaches the PRZ. This bearish Gartley (on the 1 hour chart) comes as price recently reached its highest level since 2015. This pair dropped rapidly in one day and has steadily retraced ever since. The weekly chart is now showing as overbought and I believe we should see some consolidation as the retirement begins to level out. Gartley ratios: X:B = 61.8% A:C = 38.2%:88.6% B:D = 127.2%:161.8% X:D = 78.6%
Short
by KyleMcQuade
EURUSD Bearish SharkHi Guys, i've been looking mostly at dollar pairs this weekend and I'm expecting the beginning of short-term volatility in some places. The Euro-USD has soared to new highs in recent weeks but is now in a position where it is looking for a new support level on the daily frame. The daily chart has presented a bearish wedge formation, while price has found some support on the lower timeframes. After the break of a head and shoulders, we are now re-testing the neckline as an area of resistance. In the midst of retesting resistance, there is a bearish shark formation on the 1hour chart. The pattern is forming right at our neckline; the area we should be looking to sell has been highlighted green, in accordance with the rules of the shark pattern. I will be looking for a short position around the 1.169 level until 1.1625 (risk at minimum 1:2 as always). See overview below. Shark ratios: A:C = 1.13:1.618 B:D = 1.618:2.618 X:D = 0.886:1.13
Short
by KyleMcQuade