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Platinum - Bullish BatWhat's up guys, here's a setup I've been looking at for a while. I'm not a position trader- I don't like to hold trades for any longer than a couple of weeks max. That aside, I have saw this pattern coming for almost 2 months since the B level was broken (one could have BAMM'd it!) Here we have a bullish bat formation on platinum. The support level where the pattern falls has not been broken since 2016, and even that was brief. Since the chart in front of us began back in 2006 price has not been below the current support level for any longer than one month. For a precious metal of which there is less than one swimming pool on earth, price seems to be pretty low. This my prove to be a reasonable level for anyone looking to hold platinum long term. Bat Ratios B = 0.382-0.5 C = 0.382-0.886 D = 1.618-2.618 X to D = 0.886
OANDA:XPTUSDLong
by KyleMcQuade
EUR/AUD ShortHey guys, hereI'm looking at a potential bearish position on EUR/AUD. Price has entered into a zone of monthly support/resistance. Price may become volatile as we look towards the ECB and RBA both releasing their interest rates within the next 2 weeks. The Euro and Aud will both be currencies to watch- it'll be good to see how these to battle it out! I'll be keeping an eye on this pair and looking for a possible entry. Bat Ratios B = 0.382-0.5 C = 0.382-0.886 D = 1.618-2.618 X to D = 0.886
Short
by KyleMcQuade
USD/CAD - Bearish 5-0Continuing with the majors before moving onto the crosses, I am monitoring a bearish 5-0 on the USD/CAD. Even without the harmonic ratios, price has made a clear head and shoulders, broken the neckline and is now re-testing the neckline as resistance. As per usual with a bearish 5-0 pattern, I will be on the looking for any reversal candles (hanging men/bearish engulfing) before price reaches the 0.618 retracement level of the previous wave. Next week, Tuesday 1st of May, we will see the release of Canadian GDP data. This announcement can be very volatile so the trade must be managed effectively- I will give further updates as this move progresses. 5-0 Ratios B = 1.13-1.618 C = 1.618-2.24 D = 0.5
Short
by KyleMcQuade
1
AUD/USD Bullish Shark Hey traders, looks like there is potentially ample trading opportunities heading into this week. Here's the first of my charting from over the weekend. First I'm looking at a bullish shark formation of the AUD/USD. Price has been charted on the 1 hour for greater detail of movement, but I will be looking for a sign of reversal from the current price level on the 4 hour chart. Price seems to have found good support on the 4 hour and daily chart, whilst also entering into a key support/resistance zone on the weekly chart (see below). This week (London Time) we are seeing the Australian Consumer Price Index release early Tuesday morning (2% consensus) and US GDP figures on Friday afternoon. I believe consensus may already be written into the market, but of course any upset in the release data will cause imbalance in the market so this may be one to watch! Shark ratios are as follows: C = 1.13-1.618 D = 1.618-2.24 X to D = 0.886-1.13 This trade should have 1:3 risk, with your SL below the area of support (detailed below also).
Long
by KyleMcQuade
EUR/NZD Bearish CypherHappy Friday everyone, Just before the market closes for the weekend I am eyeing up this potential short. Heading into next week I will be monitoring this pair on the 4 hour chart to look for an ideal reversal candle (hanging man, shooting star or bearish engulfing). This pair may become volatile on Tuesday 26/04 as a result of the European Central Bank's decision rate. French Finance Minister, Bruno Le Maire, this week described ECB interest rates as 'clouds'. This can be taken in many ways however, since price has broken the weekly trend line and began to consolidate on the daily timeframe at a level of resistance, I don't mind looking for a potential short position should the correct candles arise. The ideal reversal candle I am looking for may come after price has surpassed my stop loss- in which case I will not take a trade, but know that price is currently in an area where a reversal is possible. The weekly trend line has broken after hitting resistance at 1.7481 (the highest price has been since 2016) back in December. Since then the daily time frame has made a lower high and re-tested the 1.71 area several times (see below). Since the last re-test of this level, price has also made a lower low. This may indicate loss of faith in the Euro before further decline or continuous consolidation. Cypher ratios B = 0.382-0.618 C = 1.272-1.414 X to D = 0.786 Risk as always is at 1:2 minimum (most commonly with the cypher pattern).
Short
by KyleMcQuade
U.S. Oil - Bearish SharkHey guys, here we have another bearish shark on our hands. Similarly to the GBP/USD trade, the daily chart has found resistance and is re-testing in the form of a double top. Within the re-test we can find a bearish shark formation. Price has already hit our D point but I am now monitoring the 4 hour and 1 hour charts for an entry. I'm currently simultaneously monitoring U.S. Oil and the Canadian Dollar. The value of the Canadian Dollar relies heavily upon the value of oil since this is their main export, so should the value of oil drop, the CAD more often than not follows suit. There's currently a potential bullish 3-drives on the USD/CAD (see below) which, indicating a weaker Canadian Dollar, would compliment this setup on Oil. Another idea containing full analysis will be posted for the 3-drives. Shark ratios are as follows: C = 1.13-1.618 D = 1.618-2.24 X to D = 0.886-1.13
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by KyleMcQuade
GBP/CAD - Bullish Bat In addition to the bearish GBP/USD trade, I am also looking at a potential long position on the GBP/CAD. Again this trade may be heavily influenced by the announcement of next week's British CPI release- also by the BoC interest rate decision on 18/04,followed by the Canadian CPI release the following day. Price has recently broken weekly resistance. The bullish bat is essentially retesting that level now as support (see below). I will mainly be watching the 4 hour chart for my entry. Risk:Reward at 1:3. Bat Ratios B = 0.382-0.5 C = 0.382-0.886 D = 1.618-2.618 X to D = 0.886
Long
by KyleMcQuade
GBP/USD - Bearish SharkGood day traders! This week I'm looking at a potential bearish shark formation on the GBP/USD. This trade will be heavily influenced by next week's British CPI release on 18/04. No general consensus for this announcement has been settled upon yet, but I believe this consensus will make or break the pattern. This will definitely be one to watch in the coming week! The daily chart is entering into an area where we have had previous support turn to resistance and the pattern at hand is forming within the second test of a potential double top! Lets keep an eye on this and see where it takes us. Shark ratios: C = 1.13-1.618 D = 1.618-2.24 X to D = 0.886-1.13
Short
by KyleMcQuade
GBP/CHF Bearish SharkOver the next few days I'll be keeping an eye on this bearish setup on the Pound-Franc. Looking at the structure of the daily chart you can see were consecutive higher highs and higher lows have previously been made. We were now at a stage where price has ultimately ran out of steam and made a lower low (see below). Following the lower low we are witnessing the possible formation of a harmonic bat pattern on the 4 hour chart. Combining this with the structure of the higher timeframe, this may be the re-test of daily resistance- a double top on the 4hr. Furthermore, the Bank of England's interest rate will be released on Thursday 23rd of March. The rate is highly expected by most parties to remain at 0.5%, however these releases are known to bring extreme volatility to the foreign exchange markets so we will be very cautious. This announcement, and its impact, may well make or break this set up. I will be updating this further should I be looking to enter the position. Ideally this will not happen before the rate is released. All this aside, the rules stay the same. Shark Ratios are as follows: C = 1.13-1.618 D = 1.618-2.24 X to D = 0.886-1.13 Risk at a minimum of 1:2 4-hour and daily candlesticks will be monitored in the aftermath of the rate announcement. Watch this space!
Short
by KyleMcQuade
EUR/AUD Bearish BatWhat's up traders, hope everyone had a good week! Following my last set up on this pair (see below) I am now looking at a potential short position using the bat formation, using the resistance from the failed high of the previous shark pattern. It is not often that we take a contradicting position after a successful trade, but in this instance the structure of the pattern is almost perfect. Price is very overbought and it looks like we may be entering a consolidating/ranging market following the pair's bull run since the beginning of 2018. Of course, this will depend on what the candle sticks tell us. I will be watching the 1-hour and 4-hour charts very closely for a potential reversal. Ideally risk in this case will be 1:3. Bat Ratios B = 0.382-0.5 C = 0.382-0.886 D = 1.618-2.618 X to D = 0.886
Short
by KyleMcQuade
3
CHF/JPY - Bullish CypherHello traders, it appears CHF/JPY has formed a bullish cypher pattern on the 15m chart. This is an excellent long opportunity with a potential 1:2 risk to reward. The measurements for a valid cypher are detailed below. B: 0.382 - 0.618 C: 1.272 - 1.414 X to D: 0.786 As always keep your risk in check and apply sound trading knowledge to come to trading decisions. I have not yet executed this position, I will be monitoring today and analysing the minor/major timeframes. The same pattern can be found on NZD/JPY 15m chart as well. Feel free to connect with me below :)
Long
by LewisGlasgow
1
Bitcoin is King - A Comparison of Market CyclesThe million dollar question, does the cyptocurrency market solely depend on the success of bitcoin? To some extent, yes. It has the potential to cause altcoins to advance, decline or become stagnant for sustained periods of time. I believe this is down to three simple factors. 1. The overall flow of money (entering and exiting the market). The overall flow of money can be observed as markets move from depression to euphoria and back again. The cryptocurrency market capitalisation on the 7th of January 2018 was $833 billion which is the highest recorded figure to date, and right now the market is currently valued at $369 billion. In two months the market has lost almost $500 billion in value, this figure is not just based on money moving out of the market but assets devaluing in the process. 2. Investor confidence in bitcoin which either has a positive or negative impact on altcoins. The success of altcoins can depend on the current sentiment towards bitcoin. If investors are not confident in the #1 cryptocurrency, it's stagnant, they most certainly won't be buying altcoins to run it through a new cycle. I'd like to break this down using the current market cycle and previous market cycle. I have used bitcoin, ripple and ethereum for comparison since these are the top 3 cryptocurrencies. Current market cycle (2017-2018) As you can see from the chart shown above, during July 2017 and November 2017 investor confidence was high for bitcoin as price moved from $1835 to $7900. This is an overall increase of 334%. During this same period, altcoins were stagnant as investors piled into BTC. You can see as the cycle progresses for bitcoin, investor confidence is through the roof and the market becomes overextended at the psychological price level of $20,000... Money starts flowing out of BTC into various different altcoins (this relates to point 3). Investors begin to reduce their holdings and move from BTC to altcoins or BTC to fiat. Also to add to this analysis when BTC was trading at $20,000 on the 17th December it controlled 55.11% of the market. Once we entered a bullish phase for altcoins this dominance eventually dropped to 32.55% on the 4th of January. Bitcoin remained at this level of market dominance until the middle of February. Previous market cycle (2017) A similar scenario, investor confidence begins to build as BTC breaks the all time high of 2013 and creates a new high at $1352. Within two months the market breaks the all time high at $1352 and progresses towards $3,000, at this point investor confidence is through the roof and money starts flowing into the market causing a new cycle to begin for altcoins. You can see how these two cycles hold many similarities yet they are completely different in their own way. The most interesting aspect for me was seeing the market dominance correct itself, until 2017 BTC held above 74.28% for years. Although bitcoin was creating new highs throughout 2017 and covering a lot of ground, the market dominance dropped to 37.82%. Market cycles may appear to be the same but the details are always different :) 3. All major exchanges offer altcoin trading pairs quoted in BTC (more popular than trading USDT or fiat), this means bitcoin is at the core of the crypto economy. Below is a representation of a typical transaction (deposit, trade, withdraw). Fiat > Bitcoin. Bitcoin > Altcoins. Altcoins > Bitcoin. Bitcoin > Fiat. Below is a representation of the average trader (deposit, trade, withdraw). Fiat > Bitcoin. Bitcoin > Altcoins. Altcoins > Bitcoin. Bitcoin > Altcoins. Altcoins > Bitcoin. Bitcoin > Altcoins. Altcoins > Bitcoin (rinse and repeat). This is partly the reason why many altcoins follow the price of bitcoin, like we are seeing right now, the price structure for ripple and ethereum is almost identical to the movement we are seeing in bitcoin.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by LewisGlasgow
14
EUR/AUD - Bullish SharkHi guys! Looking at the week ahead there are several potential setups on my watchlist. One of which is this bullish position on the EUR/AUD. Using the shark formation, price has already entered our PRZ whilst testing a strong level of daily support! Since this level has been tested previously we have every reason to believe history will repeat itself (see below for support). Should this support be broken, we would see a clean break down to the supporting weekly trendline (also see below). We will assess the candlesticks on the 1 hour and 4 hour chart for confirmation of our entry. This week we're awaiting releases on CPI for Europe, which will also be monitored closely should we not have already entered before this release. Shark Ratios are as follows: C = 1.13-1.618 D = 1.618-2.618 X to D = 0.886-1.13 As always, risk:reward should be 1:2 minimum- in this case 1:3. Keep an eye on this one guys; I'll update as time progresses.
Long
by KyleMcQuade
3
Bitcoin - Steady Climb to the TopEveryone seems to be in a state of panic following the recent correction for bitcoin as I receive 99750798 messages (possibly exaggerating) asking for my opinion on the situation, which I don't mind as I love helping out other traders where possible. This recent move really doesn't concern me as all of the technicals on the higher timeframes still indicate the uptrend is intact. As you can see from the daily chart the support trendline which I presented in my previous analysis on market cycles is still holding, price has returned to this daily support at $8,360. As many of you know I use a logarithmic scale when analysing cryptocurrencies (just in case you are confused about the appearance of my charts). I suggest anyone who has not read my coverage on bitcoin they do so now. I'm always asked by my followers "when will we see price return to 20k?" or "when will btc moon?" This is why I've placed my prediction for $20,000 on the charts which in my opinion will occur in the last week of April going into May, as long as we stay on track, if my opinion changes I will let you all know. Never be stuck with one opinion and fail to see the errors in your own workings, I'm an open-minded trader that analyses all potential risk. There is one point I would like to correct and that is people who continually say "BTC is rising on falling volume" and there is some truth to that in comparison to previous trading years but if you look at the daily chart you can see the average volume has been increasing steadily since Jan 2017. Taking a look at the weekly chart below we can see that the average volume is quickly approaching the highest average volume during 2014, I believe we will pass this area this year when BTC creates a new all time high. The current trend in volume represents steady growth just like the volume shown on the daily chart. Below is the weekly chart showing basic price structure with the daily support trendline and the lower support trendline on the weekly. If we did see any major downside for bitcoin this is the chart I would refer to, however, I do not see this happening. To finish off this analysis here is my view on the 4h chart, we can see that price increased by 99% followed by a 21% correction, then a 26% increase creating a double top formation which caused the decline of 28% to the low of $8,360 which formed at the 1.272 projection. Price is now re-testing resistance, pay close attention to this level for short-term direction, failing to close above would indicate another move back down to the daily support trendline. That's it from me, I hope you all gained value from my analysis. Don't forget to leave a like and comment below with your opinion on Bitcoin.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by LewisGlasgow
59