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XAU/USD - Bullish ButterflyHello traders, it appears XAU/USD is now forming a bullish butterfly pattern on the 1h chart in addition to a bullish 5-0 which I posted on here at the beginning of February. You can see more on this analysis below. Two valid harmonic setups are forming in the same area, the bullish 5-0 at $1,300 and the bullish butterfly at $1,295. The measurements for a valid butterfly pattern are detailed below. B: 0.786 C: 0.382 - 0.886 D: 1.618 - 2.24 X to D: 1.272 The daily chart provides several indications going forward, price is quickly approaching the support zone where both of our harmonic setups complete, at the bottom of the zone price will meet the 200 EMA which is an additional dynamic support. The next support to follow this is most likely the lower support trendline near $1,250. I will most definitely be waiting for the next daily close before executing, the decline is extremely aggressive so wait on confirmation of a reversal. In addition to the analysis provided above, price forms a valid AB=CD formation at $1,300 with the reciprocal ratio of 0.5 which is 2.0. Stay safe, stay harmonic! Have an excellent weekend when it comes.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LewisGlasgow
22
Finding my first harmonic pattern. NZDUSD Bullish Bat.This is my first attempt at creating a harmonic pattern on the charts. I believe this is a bullish bat. I have matched up all the numbers and they seem to be within the required ratios. The only thing bothering me is my D point. It is within the correct ratios but the placement of the D point is causing me some confusion as to whether the placement is valid with the surrounding candlesticks. Any comments, pointers, feedback etc is extremely appreciated.
by AndrewGilbert67
MaidSafe - Bullish Bat (Low Buying Level)What's up traders, today I'm looking at MAID/BTC on the 4h chart with a bullish bat pattern, this pattern completes near the all time low for MaidSafe and it's exactly why it caught my attention. The measurements for a valid bat pattern are detailed below. B: 0.382 - 0.50 C: 0.382 - 0.886 D: 1.618 - 2.618 Final X to D: 0.886 Credit to www.tradingview.com for spotting this formation. Right now price has decline by 52% and the overall correction at the PRZ is 64%. Once the pattern completes I will update the idea before going long!
MLong
by LewisGlasgow
11
XAG/USD Bearish 5-0Hey guys, tonight I'm looking a 5-0 position on silver! I previously had my eye on a bullish shark, which has turned into a bearish 5-0 (see below). Price has already touched the 50% retracement and is beginning to show signs of reversal after the bearish engulfing candle! Price is also about to make a double top on the 1 hour chart. Taking this into consideration, this will be a good area to enter a short position. Price is also re-testing previous support which has turned to resistance due to the change in trend. With 5.0's they are invalid once price reaches the 0.618 level retracement level, so our SL should be just above this point. Risk as always should be a minimum 1:2. 5-0 Ratios B = 1.13-1.618 C = 1.618-2.24 D = 0.5 Analysis will be updated as we go along!
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by KyleMcQuade
9
EUR/USD - Bullish GartleyFollowing up from my previous successful bullish gartley for EUR/USD, we've now got another bullish gartley but this time on the 30m chart. The measurements for a valid gartley pattern are detailed below. B: 0.618 C: 0.382 - 0.886 D: 1.272 - 1.618 Final X to D: 0.786 As you can see the PRZ forms on a critical level of support, this is an ideal area for a reversal to take place. You can check out my previous EUR/USD idea here. I'll re-analyse upon completion, this setup provides a 1:2 risk to reward.
Long
by LewisGlasgow
3
Bitcoin - What's Next?Traders, I believe you will like the facts put forward in today's analysis. I've previously spoke about the direction of BTC on the 15m, 1h and 4h charts but I feel a reflective post on the weekly chart is well overdue. Since my post on the cyclical measurements of bitcoin in December, price has created a new low at $5,900, it is now time to start analysing the potential for 2018 and not to concern ourselves too much with intraday movements. You can read my post from December below. Today I'd like to present a more focused view on bitcoins current situation, analysing minor and intermediate cycles. As mentioned I'm using a logarithmic scale which presents prices in the proportional amount of percentage increase or decrease, providing us a fair representation of where bitcoin was, is and could be. I've broken down only the most recent cycle measured from the breakout of the all time high at $1,180 to the potential new all time high being the market top. There is now a new measurement in this piece of analysis from the low created at $5,900 to the potential new all time high. The measurements show the percentage increase upon achieving targets at $20,000, $50,000 and $100,000 as there seems to be a lot of financial articles relating to these figures as the predicted long term targets for the asset. $5,900 to $20,000 = 240% increase $5,900 to $50,000 = 750% increase $5,900 to $100,000 = 1580% increase If you compare our most up to date targets with those measured from the breakout of the all time high at $1,180, you can see how these levels are more than achievable long term now that the market has corrected. To those who simply don't understand why market cycles occur, to put into the most simple context it operates on a basis of two main emotions. 1. The greed for profits. 2. The fear of losses This is why the public gets in at the top and gets out at the bottom, because their prime drivers are just that, nothing more, nothing less. It's funny, whenever Bitcoin was sitting at $18,000 all I ever heard people say was "If bitcoin went back down to $10k I'd be the first to buy it" or "I wish I bought BTC at $6k, I would've made a fortune". Those people are the same ones who are still not buying now, the ones that bought at $18k because it's "booming" and they failed to recognise the signs of a storm. In this post, I will not rant about these types of traders, I will keep it strictly technical and provide a deeper understanding on bitcoins situation. I will need to continue this idea in the updates section.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by LewisGlasgow
114
AUDCAD - Bullish CypherLooking forward to a new week, I have added the AUD/CAD to my watchlist- keeping my eye on a bullish cypher pattern on the 4 hour chart. If you scroll back on this timeframe you can see our PRZ has landed in an area where there is a history of price consolidating as support or resistance, as well as times where price has quickly reversed. Keeping this in mind, I expect to see some nice price action should price reach this level. As always I will be analysing the candles for signs of reversal- hammers, engulfing candle, you know how it goes... With this pattern our first Take-Profit level will fall exactly on 0.98, with our final target for 0.98784. With any pattern, risk to reward should be at least 1:2. In this instance we are doing just that as our stop-loss should be below the point of X. This may vary for people depending on when they enter. The stop-loss and profit targets should ever move, so if you enter slightly lower than the PRZ you would see a small difference. Cypher ratios B = 0.382-0.618 C = 1.272-1.414 X to D = 0.786 *To anyone drawing this pattern, please remember to use the Cypher tool- NOT the XABCD tool as normal for other harmonic formations* I am currently short the AUDJPY, so I do expect some further weakness from the AUD (see below). I'll update further once price has reached our PRZ. Have a good week guys!
Long
by KyleMcQuade
6
GBPUSD - Gartley & Bat - 4HHi Guys, Here we have the GBPUSD chart on the four hour please see detailed breakdown of the analysis below: Gartley (Blue Pattern): The Gartley completed and price reversed from 'd' point twice. First hitting the 0.23 retracement then 0.50. Price has now dropped straight past the 'd' point and is hovering between x and d of the Gartley. It is yet to reach x point. Bat (Pink Pattern): A larger bat is forming and price is dropping towards d point for a potential reversal. I see two possible scenarios: Scenario One: Price rejects 'x' of Gartley and reverses to complete full 0.618 target on Gartley Scenario Two: Price rejects 'd' of Gartley and drops to complete bat. I will be watching price closely at opening. Personally, I think it will reject 'd' of the Gartley and continue to travel towards the 'd' of the bat inline with the downtrend shown on the chart (grey line). Not the simplest of analysis but covers a few options. Would appreciate any thoughts or opinions on this. Thank you! Victoria
by Atomic_Pips
GBP/NZD - Bullish BatHello traders, here we have GBP/NZD on the 1h chart with a valid bullish bat pattern. All-round excellent opportunity with over 1:2 risk to reward. The measurements for a valid bat pattern are detailed below. B: 0.382 - 0.50 C: 0.382 - 0.886 D: 1.618 - 2.618 Final X to D: 0.886 This is one to watch right now, I thought I'd share this before heading off for the day. The D point forms on a key daily support level, I will share more analysis as the pattern progresses. I'll be looking for additional confirmation before taking the trade!
Long
by LewisGlasgow
5
GBP/CHF - Bearish CypherIt's been a busy week of charting so far, and now I'm looking at a potential bearish cypher on the 1 hour chart. You can see from my analysis of the daily chart below that price has begun to test resistance at the high before the X point- meanwhile price has recently made consistent higher highs and higher lows. However after the recent re-test of the high at our X, we have now seen a lower low. This is a sign that growth in this pair is easing and we may need some big news before higher highs are made. Within the next 24 hours we will see the release of the Swiss Unemployment Rate- as well as the British Trade Balance and GDP estimate. I wouldn't like to take a trade while this news is being announced, however it may be the cause we need to push price towards our PRZ for another re-test of resistance. Cypher ratios B = 0.382-0.618 C = 1.272-1.414 X to D = 0.786 Please keep an eye on the candlesticks as they will tell us which direction price is looking to turn. I will update the analysis as time goes on. Risk with this trade is at 1:2.
Short
by KyleMcQuade
Ripple - Measured MoveI'd like to present a short post covering Ripple in relation to the market-wide correction. As mentioned in my Bitcoin post the magnitude of the correction for most cryptocurrencies has been amplified as the entire market capitalisation dropped from $830 billion to $310 billion, which is over a 50% decline market-wide. As you can see from April/May 2017, price increased by 1453% within 27 days followed by a correction of 72% inside 10 days. This was followed by a period of congestion which lasted 194 days until we experienced the next bullish cycle. Now looking at the current cycle which started in December, price increased by 1545% inside 28 days which is extremely similar to the move back in April/May 2017. This was followed by a correction which now stands at 82%. XRP has lost 82% of its value within 33 days, which is 3x longer than the previous correction, although this was followed by 6 to 7 months of congestion. The lowest price I see XRP returning to is $0.44 at the previous high which means it would be standing at an 87% decline from the all time high. I will be waiting for the next daily close to determine if the market has bottomed, which to me it appears it has, we cannot be sure for now. From here we can use this opportunity to accumulate XRP at low levels.
by LewisGlasgow
14
XAU/USD Bullish SharkHey guys, Today I am looking at Silver, with a bullish shark formation on the 4 hour time frame. Normally for this pattern I would feel more comfortable if the B point was at least 0.382, but the level of support at the PRZ is very strong. The support is holding as high as the weekly timeframe, which is why I am feeling drawn to this trade. Shark Ratios are as follows: C = 1.13-1.618 D = 1.618-2.618 X to D = 0.886-1.13 There have been a few spikes below the support- my stop loss has been placed below all of these (still with a 1:3 risk). As always I will be watching the candles to signal a reversal before entering. I will update everyone as I go! :) Good luck guys.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by KyleMcQuade
NZD/JPY Bullish 5-0 Type-II Entry Hi guys, Here I'm on the 4 hour chart, looking a potential type-ii entry on a bullish 5-0. The pattern has already made an absolutely PERFECT 5-0 formation; all key reversal areas are bang on our key retracement/extension levels. Price has already touched the 50% retracement for the D point, however if price returns to re-test this level we should be looking for a long entry! With this pattern, price should be trader until it re-tests the previous high at the C point .Our stop-loss should be below the 0.618 level, as if price closes below here then the pattern is no longer valid. By keeping the stop below we are minimising the possibility of price testing our stop before the rally to our TP begins. With this in mind, there is also an inverse head and shoulder pattern forming on the daily/weekly chart with the C point at the neckline. The right shoulder has not yet formed and I would not be surprised if this is it in the making. Should this be the case, I will adjust my stop loss once price either meets the neckline or the first TP level of 0.382 (whichever comes first). 5-0 Ratios B = 1.13-1.618 C = 1.618-2.24 D = 0.5 I am also short the GBP/NZD AND expecting a drop on the AUD/NZD if similar support is broken (see below). Using this position as sentimental confluence, it is conceivable that the NZD strength may be present in the Yen pair also. If price does return to the D point I will drop down to the 1 hour time frame to judge my entry. Analysis will be updated as time goes on! Thank you.
Long
by KyleMcQuade
2
GBP/NZD Bearish BammHi guys, I have entered this bearish bamm formation on the GBPNZD. The Bat Action Magnet Method (BAMM) is triggered when the C-D wave of a potential bat pattern has broken the support/resistance of the B point. Price has broken the support at the B point and since re-tested this area as resistance. As most traders will know, support and resistance acts as a magnet, pulling price towards key levels. As harmonic patterns are in themselves price action formations built around key levels in the market, this approach normally works very well! The next level of support is actually a key level on the daily and weekly timeframes. I like to wait for a re-test of the resistance before entering, which has already took place, and I'm also looking at the symmetrical triangle that is forming on the 30 minute chart. I have already entered, however if you feel you need further confirmation, feel free to follow this also (see below). Bat Ratios B = 0.382-0.5 C = 0.382-0.886 D = 1.618-2.618 X to D = 0.886 Risk to reward is 1:3 as I feel this gives us a good average return whilst keeping a healthy stop loss for any volatility that may occur. I will re-assess the bat bat pattern as a whole once price has reached the PRZ. Again, I am in this trade at the moment so feel free to enter, or wait for the break of the triangle. Good luck everyone!
Short
by KyleMcQuade
The Major Impact of High Risk TradingI feel this post is well overdue, and considering the current market standing in cryptocurrency it couldn't have come at a better time. Today's post will be an eye opener for many, and others common knowledge. I hope you guys gain a lot of value from my insights and use this to your advantage in the markets. The following educational post relates to the trader behind the charts, it is not specific to one financial market meaning it applies to all but today, I will be talking about this in relation to the cryptocurrency market. The Major Impact of High Risk Trading Right now, the cryptocurrency market has lost 50%+ of its overall value, meaning a lot of new and existing traders are suffering huge losses (to anyone who comments "you only lose when you sell" - we'll talk about this later in the post) and their portfolios are in the red. I receive a lot of messages on a daily basis, recently they have been of the following context. Follower: "I'm holding XRP (BTC, ETH, TRX, ETN, LTC, the coin doesn't matter, the message does) from $3 and it's now at $0.70, should I sell?" I know most of these messages are out of panic, looking for an option, hopefully advice on how to regain those losses. Do I tell people to buy or sell? Of course not, it's their investment, however I do provide my insights on where the market is heading next to help them understand their situation. If you are this person, there is good news... You've already held through a serious correction, why are you thinking about selling now? Take a look at the chart shown, as you can see I have illustrated "percentage loss" which is of course the amount you have lost on one given position or your entire portfolio. We have "percentage difference from previous loss" now let's say for example you're holding XRP at a 33% loss and this quickly changes to a 50% loss, you can agree the difference is 17%. And finally we have "percentage gain to break-even", this points out the required increase in capital to regain the losses that have occurred. If you invested $1,000 in XRP $2 and sold at $1, you can agree this is a 50% loss in capital and you now have a $500 portfolio. To regain those losses and return to break-even you would need to gain 100% which is 2x. Let's start to break down the numbers. If your portfolio is down 33% you will need to gain 50% to get back to break-even. At this point, you are concerned but you're convinced the market will pick back up next week, so you don't take any action. The following week your portfolio declines a further 17% which brings the overall loss to 50%, to get back to break-even you need to gain 100%. This is when panic sets in, you've went from $10,000 to $5,000 in one month, the entire market is down and at this point you consider selling. Now, you can see where this is heading. The market declines a further 16% bringing your portfolio into a total decline of 66%. At this stage you now need to increase your portfolio by 200% to get back to break-even. What do you noticed when you get further and further down the list? The percentage difference becomes smaller but the percentage gain to return to break-even increases drastically. If you lose 83.3% of your portfolio, which I have witnessed, you will need to increase your portfolio by 500% which is 6x just to get back to break-even, a further 2.4% decline would require a 600% increase which is 7x. Am I telling you to sell? No, not at all, there is an extremely valuable lesson here. Let's say you are the person who has bought Ripple (XRP) at $3 and it's your only crypto, you're now holding at $0.70 which is a decline of 75%+ meaning you need to increase your portfolio by 300% to regain initial losses, which is 4x. Buying high is a rookie mistake, many people can't think of anything worse but I definitely can. Buying at the top followed by selling at the bottom. I will need to continue this idea in the updates section, it's too long.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by LewisGlasgow
35
EUR/JPY Bearish BatAnother possible position for the position traders out there on the daily chart of the EUR/JPY. Before the X point, price became slightly volatile- rapidly rising and falling- before resuming it's natural wave south. Using the X from the high following the retracement we find a bearish bat formation. Bat Ratios B = 0.382-0.5 C = 0.382-0.886 D = 1.618-2.618 X to D = 0.886 The higher the timeframe you use, the more fundamental they become so please be aware of what's happening in the market when analysing this pattern. And by all means use the lower time frames to judge an entry. See below my previous bat on the JPY against the AUD where we have seen the Yen gain significant strength. Will the Yen strength continue?
Short
by KyleMcQuade
2