USD/JPY: Strategic Insights for Navigating Market Trends👋 Hello everyone! I’m Skeptic , and this is my second analysis. Today, I will be analyzing the USD/JPY pair. In the daily timeframe, we can clearly see the strength of its bullish trend. If you’re interested in the conditions, risks, scenarios, and triggers I’ll discuss, I appreciate you staying with me until the end of the analysis.
Analysis
Let’s start with the major trend of USD/JPY. In the previous corrective leg, the price retraced up to 50% of the Fibonacci level. However, in the current corrective leg, it has only retraced to 23%, which may indicate the strength of the trend. 📈
Trend Analysis:
The daily chart shows that during the previous bullish trend’s correction, the price experienced significant declines.
In the current corrective phase, the price has been moving sideways and even in the direction of the trend.
Corrections in the direction of the trend are excellent indicators of trend strength and are often applicable in trading strategies.
We can also observe a similar analysis using the RSI indicator. It’s worth noting that the daily support level at 156.226 has held well, stabilizing the price above it. If this support level is broken, we could anticipate a bearish scenario for the pair. ⚠️
Trigger Analysis
Now, let’s move to the four-hour timeframe for our main trigger.
Four-Hour Chart:
We are witnessing a false breakout, and the price is still attempting to break through the resistance level at 158.070.
For a long position, we should wait for a confirmed breakout and stabilization above this resistance level. 🚀
Given the strong bullish trend, we can expect significant upward movement. However, it’s crucial to manage risk effectively for each position.
Risk Management:
Maintaining proper capital management is vital for survival in financial markets.
If your maximum risk per position is 0.5%, you can fully risk that amount. If you observe signs of trend weakness, negative economic news, or any other factors that might increase your risk, adjust your risk percentage accordingly. 💡
Thank you for staying with me until the end of this analysis! ❤ Your support motivates me to provide more daily insights, allowing us to grow together in our trading journeys. If you have any questions or topics you’d like me to cover in future analyses, feel free to reach out. Let’s continue to learn and succeed together!✨
Skeptic
Bitcoin’s Path to $100,000: Analyzing Recent Trends and Trading📈BITCOIN JUST HIT $102,000. Yes, you heard it right. After a price correction and the formation of a four-hour range box, it seems that Bitcoin has successfully broken the upper channel. I am Skeptic , and this is my first analytical post on TradingView.
📊Analysis
Long-Term Trend: After breaking the resistance area at $72,000, Bitcoin resumed its primary upward trend, achieving significant price growth up to $106,000. The primary trend remains bullish.
Market Influences: Factors such as decreasing U.S. interest rates, Trump’s presidential candidacy, and the increasing public interest in decentralized financial systems signal potential higher targets for Bitcoin.
Secondary Correction: The recent correction coincided with Christmas and the holiday season, which may have contributed to the market’s pullback.
Trading Strategy: As the saying goes, “ always trade with the trend .” Trading in the direction of the trend generally leads to higher win rates and better risk/reward ratios.
📍Four-Hour Time Frame:
Bitcoin has recently corrected to the $92,000 level and has broken above the range ceiling at $92,738. The RSI entering the overbought level of 70 confirms the momentum and breakout.
Moving Averages: The three SMA of the previous seven candles is below the four-hour breakout candle, indicating a bullish slope.
🔎Triggers for Long Position
First Trigger: Wait for a pullback to the $99,600 level for a reactive buy or wait for renewed momentum and a breakout above $102,593.
Range Box Strategy: Look for a range box formation and place a stop buy above it. There are numerous strategies available; find one that suits you best. It’s essential to open enough positions to discover what works for you.
Short Position Consideration: If the four-hour candle fails and reverts back to the range box, consider a short position. However, since this goes against the trend, it’s advisable to reduce risk with smaller stops and lower risk/reward ratios.
🧵Additional Notes
Bitcoin Dominance: Keep an eye on BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance). Currently, Bitcoin seems favorable for opening positions, but if signs of weakness or a downward trend emerge, consider focusing on altcoins. Personally, I am watching BNB and XRP.
Pair Analysis: Monitoring Bitcoin pairs like BNBBTC can provide insights into which coins may outperform or underperform relative to Bitcoin.
Thank you for staying with me until the end of this analysis. I look forward to sharing fresh insights and a new coin with you tomorrow. I believe that growth together can be beneficial for both you and me. Until tomorrow, goodbye!❤️
Dollar and Gold exchanging position ahead of Fed Chair TestimonyThe shiny metal #gold has limited resistance until $1236 as US #Dollar Currency #Index should maintain its weight above 96.33 for a channelized healthy market.Though we have some probable possibilities on the other hand which can be unfavorable for short sellers,but we can carry on bear trend with higher selling until $1236.