ZM: Zoom has officially topped...Short it.I'm short $ZM since earlier today, I believe it has peaked here. Investors are likely to take profits now that competition has increased dramatically for them.
They thrived when the world was locked down due to the threat of COVID-19, but now that vaccines will be widely available and distributed globally very soon, holding shares has become extremely risky. I'd urge everyone holding to sell and buy something oversold with proceeds...If interested in knowing what to buy now, contact me.
A short here has very low risk, I think it can last for a long time falling, so do your own due diligence with sizing to not risk more than 1-2% if it goes against you by 3 average ranges.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Slack
Let's all buy a metric shit ton of $CRM and get rich.This is a chart of $CRM. The bars pattern is of $FTNT. You can do this with $ADBE and a number of other tech stocks as well. You'll probably notice $ADBE is leading, I'm betting $CRM will follow. Both will catch up to $FTNT.
The structure is ready, we've been drawing this bull flag forever. We've lost all hope in stocks. Biden flushed everyone out that is scared of a little tax bump but only poors worry about taxes... they sold the bottom. It's time.
SLACK BUY OR SELL?NYSE:WORK
Watching SLACK
BUY if price breaks and close $44.50
SL: $43.99
TP: $56
TP2: $61
SELL (short and risky): if price drops and close below $44
SL: $44.5
TP: $40
Any insight is welcome.
Remember, this is only published to share my view and analysis!!!
Always do your own due diligence before making any trade.
Direct Listings: An overview of opening day patternsOn 4/14/2021, Coinbase went public with the ticker NASDAQ:COIN . This was a pretty heavily-anticipated listing if for no other reason than that there aren't really any other crypto exchanges you can buy that are traded on a major US exchange. There are some OTC options, but when it comes to a symbol that trades on a US exchange this is a big milestone. Tons of people scrambled to buy into the listing right when it went live and ended up closing out the day reasonably red. Even people who are experienced traders jumped in and ended up closing out for a loss by the end of the day.
So what happened here? Why did the stock go down with so much hype, why are there so many insiders selling, and really what even is a direct listing?
What is a Direct Listing?
With a traditional IPO, a company works with an underwriter (typically a bank or large financial institution) to put together their initial stock offering. This usually involves a road show where the company's representatives will travel around drumming up investment from institutional investors prior to the stock going live. On IPO day, the underwriter facilitates the transfer of these pre-IPO shares to the institutional investors they snagged during the road show prior to the stock going live on secondary markets (where you, the retail investor can buy in). There is also a lockup period in an IPO that limits selling and hedging on the stock for specific holders until a set period of time has passed.
A direct listing is when the shareholders of a company decide to sell shares in the enterprise directly to secondary markets without the help of an underwriter. With a direct listing, none of the road show stuff happens and there's no real lockup period unless that's specifically negotiated internally at the company. The company sets a reference price for the stock and on listing day the stock is just listed straight to secondary markets.
With both a traditional IPO and direct listing, we're usually looking at around 10% of the company's stock being up for sale. With a traditional IPO, the underwriter often buy all the shares being offered directly from the issuer and then be responsible for selling those shares. With a direct listing, shareholders sell their shares to the market directly.
What happened with Coinbase?
What happened with the Coinbase direct listing isn't new or weird. It seems to happen more or less with every direct listing. I went back and got some charts for some of the big direct listings that have happened over the past year or so and it happens to varying degrees more or less every time.
Here's NYSE:RBLX :
Here's NYSE:PLTR :
Here's NYSE:SPOT :
Here's NYSE:WORK :
Out of all of these, Roblox fared the best the fastest after going live but still had the same end of day drop as Coinbase. Slack had the worst performance and didn't bottom out for months.
So it's a pretty common phenomenon that direct listing stocks are probably a bad idea to buy into on the first day they list. The question becomes why.
Market Mechanics and Direct Listings
As I've said, with a direct listing the shares are coming directly from existing internal shareholders of the company. So in a market, there needs to be a willing buyer and a willing seller. In this case, there is an avalanche of selling that happens when the stock goes live and this has the kind of impact you would expect from a roughly 10% selloff of internal shares in a company. It makes the stock go down. Once the stocks are out in the market, it's up to the market to decide what they're worth. That could be more or less than the reference price set before going live. However, this selling has to happen by the very nature of what a direct listing is and this (among other technical factors) is a giant part of the reason why direct listings often end up red on the days they go live on the market.
So when you see stuff in the news about insiders selling some insane number of shares on the day the company does a direct listing, take it with a grain of salt. Chances are substantial that it's really just the normal kind of selling that is necessitated by this type of stock listing. I'm not saying that you should trust the CEO of Coinbase blindly and assume he'd never do wrong. But even in a world where this wasn't how direct listings work, the amount of heat it would bring down on him to just liquidate his entire ownership stake in a company he just brought public in some kind of "offloading the bags" scheme would be extreme. The incentives aren't there.
Summary
Based on averages alone, even if you knew nothing about the market mechanics of direct listings, it doesn't appear to be a smart move to buy into a directly listed stock on the day it starts trading. There is too much downward selling pressure involved and all the price discovery starts on opening day so volatility is expected.
If you're interested in following along with the other stuff I do outside of TradingView, definitely make sure to follow my Substack and my Twitter (details in my signature space at the bottom of this idea).
As with everything I write, remember that this is just my observations and that you should not assume that everything is perfect or works the same way every time. Trading is a risky thing to do and no matter what you're always taking risks when you trade, so keep that in mind.
SLACK LOOKING BEARISHSo slack is looking very bearish on the Weekly TF. With its RSI over-bought/ BlueWave giving red dot (sell signal) with a bearish divergence. Also, earnings are coming, and I don't expect slack to go higher EVEN with great earnings.
SLACK (WORK) flirting with a breakout?over 2 months long rectangle that's probably close to break out, volume is still an issue
Salesforce - is it correction time? or is slack to heavy...So CRM bought slack in a fairly expensive price and this caused investors to pull out and run -which is good because the stock needed to retrace and retrace the gap area between 220 -250.
let’s focus on technical :
Stock is moving in a downward trend with no lower highs only lower lows which means we are technically not in a downtrend ! the gap from 25th of August was finally filled and now the stock can keep climbing in a safer manner.
the best part is we are seeing the correction from the drop beginning to correct and it fits our Stoch & ATR but most importantly it fits our POC and volume that indicates price should go back up to 250 (which is where the august gap ended - the wonders of volume never stop :))
So, stock needs to climb up to the 250 and make sure you keep in mind the 270$ line resistance that was tested several times and not broken
To sum up, buy position to the 250$ line then we let it correct down for a day or so and jump back in to the 270$ line
please note this trade is a quick one I assume a rise in Monday morning premarket and once market will open, we will already be halfway there so make sure you are in on time
Happy Xmas and trade safe!
Salesforce bought Slack for $27 billion. What next?I think the Salesforce acquisition of Slack was genius. Why? They now have access to all of Slack's clients and companies. They can integrate all Salesforce products into it and go right after them to upsell them Salesforce products. This is a great attempt by Salesforce to keep growing revenues. However, there is more to this story...
Before we get to the bear case, let's dive into one more interesting thing:
Salesforce is officially going after Microsoft and Microsoft is going after Salesforce. Microsoft bought LinkedIn to essentially build its own CRM system for sales and contacts. They saw what Salesforce was trying to do. Now however, Salesforce is flipping the script. Imagine the following:
Slack docs
Slack spreadsheets
Slack video
You name it
They are now going right after Microsoft Word and Excel. Also, to some degree, Google Business Solutions. That's where the bear case begins, however.
This space is extremely competitive now and it's requiring more and more risk. A $27 billion acquisition? Salesforce could not build their own Slack for $27 billion? Salesforce could not find another cheaper company to acquire? Meanwhile companies like Discord are growing fast and coming for Slack.
It seems that Salesforce's recent weakness, and point of this chart that Salesforce will return to its Volume Profile node, is that some long-term investors and holders are slightly weary of the cash spend and M&A mania that Salesforce has been on.
They keep buying, rather than growing organically.
SALESFORCE - Oversold and a good entry pointSalesforce is looking oversold to me and is heading straight for a support level that previously was a significant resistance (look at that breakout once buyers broke through). RSI is showing this as oversold.
I am betting on a resistance to support flip and think this is a decent entry with small downside. Bullish on Salesforce as companies continue to rely on their tech setup to maintain, and reckon with a working from home / office blended culture in the post-vaccine near future.
Salesforce recently bought Slack which is an interesting development, they seem to have sights set on conquering the end-to-end "sales conversation" within businesses.
I'm buying this for a mid to long term hold.
SLACK TechnologiesFundamentals:
Salesforce.com acquires Slack for $27.7B.
I would like for price to reach between the $24 - $27 levels.
SLACK Possible Reversal Area SoonSlack's stock has been following this descending channel since it's boom in June.
Investors noticed that Slack is a good "corona" stock since people are working from home and therefore need some kind of communication tool. However, Slack is losing the fight from Microsoft's teams, which is simply a better and more developed product.
My play would be that the stock will rise another few percent towards $31, consolidate for a while, and later drop off on the perspective of bad earnings.
If the stock would beat the resistance around $33, a long play might be worthwhile. Watch out for earnings though, since it can go both ways.
$WORK updated analysis. Confluence at $40 post election.EW analysis shows that $work is working on a a wave 3 sub formation (yellow) within a larger wave 3 impulsive structure (white) that started back in march. Its hit the technical levels perfectly. The algos are in play!
On a shorter time frame, the Andrews Pitchfork shows a beautiful bounce off the bottom of the channel, with and 80% chance the price will approach the median of ~$35. A dip is likely to occur here, followed by a continuation to $40 over the next few weeks to complete the wave 3 sub-formation (yellow)
Market volatility around the US election will likely keep the price movement small. Im expecting a large move upwards by mid Nov, as election chaos settles down and markets have a more firm view of what to expect in the future.
The stochastic RSI is oversold, but will likely stay at these levels for another week or two (just like the last time it was in that zone) as the election uncertainty passes.
I expect great things from $WORK in the new year.
ps: this model is invalidated if price falls below $24
Slack break out from 3M downward trend rejectedSlack (WORK) has failed to break out from its downward trend that started in June.
Despite my strong bullish long term view on Slack the outlook for the next few weeks remains not very positiv - support levels at 28.60 / 27.30 / 23.60 could be seen as entry points to accumulate.
$WORK Slack - Overbought, Bearish Options Activity$WORK Slack - Hitting resistance today at $30.50 and beginning to retrace.
Unusual Bearish Options Activity Yesterday -
12k $30.00 strike (ITM) Dec'20 puts traded vs open interest <2k or 6x OI for a total premium outlay of $5M
Near term target: $25.00-$26.00 range by late October
Note: This is NOT investment advice.
WORK STRANGLE WIN WIN$WORK got destroyed by Zoom? will it get pumped by the Nasdaq? Who knows.
What I know is that is sitting and coiling on the lower channel structure...big move can happen soon.
So, LET'S PLAY BOTH WAYS.. WIN WIN situations that's what I like
PT1:30 bull
PT2:23.4 bear
$ZM $SLACK
Healthy up movement on SlackI see a clear healthy on SLACK with RSI above 50, breaking the channel on RSI as well.
14 and 21 periods EMA giving a buying signal so overall this looks good to me.
TP1 - $26.50
TP2 - $28
Please let me know your thoughts.
WORK aka Slack unfortunate downward channelWORK aka Slack was a very promising trade with the work from home (WFH) explosion driving stocks like ZOOM, PYPL, SQ, FB, AAPL, MSFT and CRM to name a few.
Unfortunately WORK's performance was lukewarm, and quarterly results proved the same. With services like Zoom Video, Facebook Workplace, Microsoft Teams, Salesforce and more providing a lot of tools that compete in one way or another with Slack's tools, the business is growing steadily but is failing to see the hypergrowth curve driving market gains for its peers.
The downward channel should be observed and any break out of it to the upside with volume would have a greater risk-reward trade than trying to play a $4 trade. Though, with a $1000 investment at a price of $26, one has the opportunity to scalp up to $152 with a sale near or at $30. We don't recommend any trades for those with a low appetite for risk, and we ALWAYS recommend a stop-loss, or the opportunity to cost average if you are longer-term on the stock.
*Note: Risking a downside of anything more than your upside potential is never a good idea. With a chance at 15% upside, one should also assume the risk of 15% downside MAX and take the applicable stop-loss at this level.
The fundamentals of this stock are sound. We'd rate it neutral or HOLD in the short-term, though your money might work for you better in another stock. Alternatively, one could argue that WORK benefits vs other technology stocks having not been "overbought" in recent months. Though, the overall weakness and slow growth make a stronger argument, as well as the general market trend to the downside which Slack's Beta has proved prior (March) to be sensitive to.
If you are in the stock, getting out now or anywhere close to $30 in the short term might prove opportunity to get in at cheaper prices again. However, the long-term potential with this household name makes one want to hold a small position to take advantage of any surprise gains (For example those found regularly in tech stocks such as liquidity events (acquisition) or product releases).
Disclaimer: I am not a professional, nor do I claim to know what I am doing. I chart for my own education and revealing potential trade setups. I am always open to constructive feedback and resources that you can recommend to "up" my game. Thank you!
WORK stopped SLACKING?Been holding the bag since the lasts ER. Looks ready for a breakout!
- Tested and hold the support at 27 a couple of times
- Long bottom trendline has been held and bounced off
- Short bottom trendline has been held
- Short top trendline is about to be surpassed
- Downwards momentum is fading
- 20 day EMA is about to be surpassed.
- We've seen more green days in the last week than past months
- Dowbeating during the day seem to have been stopped.
Hopefully the upwards trend will continue. Conformation when passing resistance at 30.
WORK IT BABY!
WORK looking like a perfect Cup & Handle, Bullish SetupSlack stock (WORK) has been setting up a really nice Cup & Handle, I recommend keeping your eyes on it!
We HAVE to make sure it breaks upwards with volume before trading on it.
Slack Buy Zone and Sell Zone $WORKWhat i think $work will do in the next few weeks. (Assume the buy zone holds)
(Not financial advice)
Slack: Long, 5-10% Trade!TA:
Short Term Downward trend but currently sitting at support zone; good place to enter with stop losses set diligently below.
Has been following Fib Retracement levels on moves up and thus why I have outlined the target area due to the downward trendline and the fib retracement level.
-Megalodon (Rahim)
PS: Don't take this for Gospel, manage risk accordingly
You are welcome to start discussions below and post your own charts, enjoy!
NYSE:WORK XETR:8S0