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go long OIHAfter almost 7 years of bearish price action, oil services will be essential in the transition to electric vehicles and clean energy. Most automakers are shooting for 2025 to have an entire EV fleet or mostly EV fleet. That's a 4-7 year runway for a bull run; assuming that it will take time to transition and for all automakers to be on the same page. Freight and travel will only increase with time further improving demand for oil and oil services. Tom Lee from Fundstrat gave this oil services ETF a price target of $740 if oil hits $80 a barrel which seems extremely likely with the macroenvironment. Playing this trend through an ETF is the safest way to play it because you are taking out the idiosyncratic risk of being tied solely to a single company. The top ten holdings of OIH are: SLB: 22.46% HAL: 13.21% BKR: 5.84% FTI: 5.22% CHX: 4.97% TS: 4.63% LBRT: 4.57% NOV: 4.37% HP: 4.13% RIG: 4.00% Weekly Chart: Daily Chart with Golden Cross:
AMEX:OIHLong
by EBITDAtiger
2
Keep on Watchlist.Please note this is only an idea, invest at your own risk. Currently sitting/fighting a key level of resistance/support at around 31/32. I would like to see it form a good base and stabilize around this level. If it surpasses next resistance of previous swing high, at around 34, then I would consider it a good entry point up until 40. The opening of the economy and summer might have a positive influence on it, so expect moves around these key levels within the next few weeks. Happy to get feedback on my idea.
NYSE:SLB
by contador7
I believe that Gold is gonna blow off then jump down.This is an early development but, I believe that since GOLD is in a downward trend in the short term, a breakout will occur but then once it reaches to 1950s, then I expect a drop-down or a continued up. Just a theory. The RSI is in the normal territory, which does not signal it is a blow-off or a blowdown but check the coming days and then see if an up is made or a down is amde. Warning! I am not a financial adviser and take this with a grain of salt. Happy trading!
TVC:GOLDLong
by informalStar16695
THE WEEK AHEAD: UAL, DAL, SLB, WBA EARNINGS; XOP, SLV, QQQEARNINGS: There are four options highly liquid underlyings that pop up on my screener for next week with 30-day implied of >50%: UAL (23/88/22.6%)* (on Wednesday after market close); DAL (13/74/19.1%) (Tuesday before market open); SLV (18/59/16.4%) (Friday, before market open), and WBA (43/54/12.2%) (Thursday, before market open). Pictured here is a directionally neutral 29/50 short strangle in the November monthly with the options camped out at the 16 delta, yielding a 2 x expected move break even on the put side and > 2 x expected move on the call. Delta/theta -.41/6.00; paying 1.87 at the mid price as of Friday close (.94 at 50% max). The DAL November 20th, 16 delta 27/42 short strangle was paying 1.83 at the mid price as of Friday close; delta/theta 1.48/4.39. SLB is small enough to short straddle, but would go "skinny," as the November only has 2.5 wides to play with. The November 20th 15/17.5 was paying 1.48 as of Friday close, but treating it as a short straddle and taking profit at 25% max (.37) isn't particularly compelling, so would probably pass on the play and deploy buying power elsewhere. WBA suffers from a similar affliction (2.5 wides out in November), but the 32.5/40 is paying 1.54 there, albeit with break evens greater than the expected move, but not quite 2 x. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AND SCREENED FOR THOSE PAYING >10%: XOP (15/56/14.5%) SLV (45/51/13.1%) GDXJ (15/49/12.9%) EWA (15/42/11.6%) XLE (27/43/11.2%) GDX (15/40/10.7%) XBI (29/43/10.3%) USO (4/43/10.1%) BROAD MARKET RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING: QQQ (28/33/8.2%) IWM (25/32/7.6%) SPY (19/25/5.9%) EFA (13/20/4.8%) DIVIDEND PAYERS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AND SCREENED FOR THOSE PAYING >10%: KRE (25/44/11.7%) EWZ (15/42/11.6%) XLE (27/43/11.2%) GENERAL MUSINGS: I already have a UAL covered call on, so am unlikely to partake in that underlying further here. Moreover, in the IRA/retirement account, I'm already deployed in everything at the top of the heap from an implied volatility standpoint, although I may carry on with my standard weekly 16-delta short put in the broad market instrument with the highest implied volatility, which would be QQQ. Alternatively, I'll do a QQQ 10-percenter (See Post Below) instead, as NDX isn't fantastically liquid, and a November 27th (currently, 48 days until expiry) will be available. To emulate a 50-wide, however, in NDX, I'll have to go 10-wide with 5 contracts or 5 wide with 10, etc. For example, the November 27th 240/245 is paying .50, and I'd have to sell 10 of those to emulate the NDX November 27th 9925/9975, paying 5.04. I would naturally prefer just selling one NDX spread, since it means fewer fees, but if the bid/ask is grotesque, I'll just have to go with QQQ or a RUT 50 wide. (The RUT November 27th 1385/1435 was paying 5.04 at the mid as of Friday close). * -- The first metric is the implied volatility rank (where implied volatility is currently relative to where it's been over the last 52 weeks); the second, 30-day implied volatility; and the third, what the November at-the-money short straddle is paying as a percentage of stock price.
NASDAQ:UAL
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: IBM, SLB, KMI EARNINGS; XLU, SMH, IYR, EWW, VXXEARNINGS The earnings on tap aren't looking very enticing to me, as I generally look at getting in on these where the implied volatility rank is >70% and the background implied volatility is >50%. However, they might be worth watching running into earnings to see if implied ramps up. KMI (implied volatility rank 79/implied volatility 30) announces earnings on the 17th after market close. The January 19th expiry's implied volatility is at 40%, with the 26th's at 31.4% (a 27.5% potential contraction). Given the underlying's price, it's probably best to go short straddle. Unfortunately, the Jan 19th's 19.5 short straddle isn't paying much -- .70 at the mid, with break evens clear of the expected move. Given what that's paying, a defined risk play won't pay. IBM (implied volatility rank 93/implied volatility 26) announces on the 18th after market close. January 19th's implied's at 43.2; the 26th's at 31.3 (38.0% potential contraction). The January 19th 157.5/170 short strangle (23 delta) is paying 2.30 at the mid; the 152.5/157.5/170/175 iron condor's only paying 1.49 (<1/3rd wing width), so would probably pass on a defined unless implied volatility frisks up running into earnings. SLB (rank 100/implied 27) announces on the 19th before market open. January 19th's implied is 35.4 vs. Jan 26th's of 27.9 (26.9% potential contraction). The 19th's 76/80 short strangle's paying 1.07 at the mid. Defined -- not worth it. NON-EARNINGS Another area in which implied volatility rank makes potential plays look promising, but where background implied volatility isn't up to stuff. Currently, there are no exchange-traded funds whose implied volatility rank is in the upper one-quarter of so of where it's been over the past year and where background implied is greater than 35%. For what it's worth, though, here are the top ones: XLU (73/15), SMH (59/23), IYR (57/14), and EWW (51/24). VOLATILITY PRODUCTS Recently I've been working VXX* in two ways: (1) "price agnostic," where I enter either a long put vertical or short call vertical when the next weekly expiry open on Thursday or Friday; and (2) on pops where the VXST/VIX ratio is >1.0 (the higher the better). Unfortunately, it's tough to forecast a pop (although I've seen people repeatedly make the attempt), so you just have to set up an alert to trigger on a VXST/VIX ratio print of >1.00 or a VVIX print of >110 and keep powder dry for when it happens. * -- I've been waiting for UVXY to reverse split on the notion that a 1/2 strike of movement in an 8.67 (UVXY Friday close price) underlying is somewhat more of a heavy lift than a 1/2 strike of movement in a 25.85 one, even though UVXY is leveraged.
NYSE:IBM
by NaughtyPines
1