SLV
Rolling (IRA): SLV May 21st 25 Short Call to June 18th 25... for a .32/contract credit.
Notes: A continuation of a long call diagonal with the back month at the 16 out in January. (See Post Below). Rolling a smidge early here in advance of vacation. Cost basis in the diagonal now 8.08 - .32 or 7.76/contract with a resulting break even of the long call strike (16) plus 7.76 or 23.76.
Call Option Strike $34I see a lot of people talking about the $34 strike price of SLV
So I decided to show how it looks like.
This option has 85 days until expiration, the last big move did 60% in 90 days.
$34 is "only" 40% from the current price.
The lines are profit and loss lines, the yellow line is the break-even, the dark green 1 point, the light green 2 points, and the blue 3 points.
Super-Cycle - You Are Here!Looking at the Monthly Chart for SLV - my count has SLV currently moving up in WAVE 3. The volume coming into SLV at the base of this wave structure is extremely BULLISH!
Silver seems to peak in the summer - predicting a WAVE 3 top summer 2021. WAVE 5 top with new all time highs in the shiny summer 2022.
Which silver stock? $AG or $PSLVAG and PSLV are both popular silver stocks that more or less track the spot price of silver. PSLV cannot be shorted as each share is backed by 1/3 of an ounce of physical silver. Meanwhile AG can be shorted, so let's look at this chart of AG/PSLV to get an idea of what short sellers are up to. At the beginning of the month it looks like short sellers got scared after the wallstreetbets headway with GME, and the rumors of setting their sights on silver. You can see the spike in the chart where the shorts relinquished their positions, sending a spike up on AG. Afterwards talk of silver was basically banned on wallsteetbets and short sellers moved back in. Now that the spot price continues to show massive support, the AG shorts seem to be sluffing off again. I'd say they're both great buys, and AG might see more upside movement in the short term. But will AG paper silver survive the squeeze as comex fraud is exposed? In that case PSLV might be the safer bet. Note you will need something like 30k shares to take delivery from PSLV, but at least it is an option and will more likely retain it's stock value in the event of a major unwinding of derivatives. This is not financial advice.
Gold is hated and I never liked it more.The weekly chart of gold is a giant cup and handle, looking extremely bullish. There is a double bottom that printed on the shorter term charts which is a good sign. Everyone hates gold right now which is a good sign it bottomed, similar to BTC at the 3k levels last bear market. Money printing is still continuing at a rapid rate so it's just a matter of time before gold busts back into its all time highs and people start to like it again.
HEX is smashing it up versus SILVER, I think the trend continuesCRYPTOCURRENCIES ENJOY NETWORK EFFECT
OPERATE 24/7
365
SLV CAN ONLY BE TRADED 32.5 HOURS A WEEK.
VERSUS 168 HOURS
WHEN IS THE LAST TIME YOU VISITED YOUR FAVOURITE RARE COIN DEALER.
YOU CAN'T EVEN BUY GOLD AND SILVER IN MY TOWN, LET ALONE TRANSACT IN IT.
EVERYONE CARRIES A SMARTPHONE... HOW CAN THESE TRADITIONAL STORES OF VALUE ITEMS
COMPETE WITH CRYPTOCURRENCIES.
SHORT ANSWER THEY SIMPLY CAN NOT!
HEX YIELDS 37% APY
IF LOCKED IN A CONTRACT FOR A 5.6 YEARS
THIS RATE AND AND AVERAGE STAKER LENGTH, DYNAMICALLY CHANGES ALONG WITH THE BEHAVIOUR OF THE USERS.
Goldaholics Anonymous Pour yourself a glass of Goldschläger and let's review the 12 steps before diving into this.
1. We admitted that we were powerless over the Fed -- that our balance sheet had become unmanageable.
2. Came to believe that a Power greater than our central bank could restore us to solvency.
3. Made a decision to turn our fiat over to the care of sound money, as we understood it.
4. Made a searching and fearless inventory of our finances.
5. Admitted to Peter Schiff, Lyn Alden, and Pomp the exact nature of our wrongs.
6. Were entirely ready to have big, fat Gains.
7. Humbly asked to avoid getting short squeezed.
8. Made a list of all the naysayers about to be harmed.
9. Sent direct messages to them to gloat in victory.
10. Continued to count our gains and polish our bullion.
11. Sought through fundamental and technical analysis to improve our entries and exits.
12. Having had a financial awakening as the result of these steps, we tried to carry this message to other goldaholics, and practice these principles in all of our trades.
Macro Fibonacci
Below we can see the magic of Fibonacci extensions, measuring the last macro bull run to the 2016 low.
Zooming in a bit, it is clear that these levels attract attention. Each one of these fibs acts as a step in the staircase. All we need to do is look at volume and price action to validate each level. The smart money had their sell orders at the 0.618 Fibonacci extension. The 0.5 could not hold which indicates that the next level down will be tested. Watch for heavy volume to come in there near the 0.382 level.
In the U.S. stock market and many other developed financial markets, about 70-80 percent of overall trading volume is generated through algorithmic trading.
Historical Price Action
Looking back to the last bull run there are a few simple patterns to watch for...
1. Weekly MACD flailing around above the zero level.
2. Mark the down trends and wait for the break.
3. Price action is above the 20 Week EMA.
Trading Setup
Using historical price action the trading setup becomes clear...
1. Weekly MACD is flailing above the zero level.
2. The down trend line is clear. Wait for the break.
3. Wait for 20 Week EMA support.
Now, the targets are the Fibonacci levels above, and the ghost bars look reasonable, however, it would be wise to take a look at what exactly is driving Gold on this path.
The U.S. Dollar
The Dollar index inversely pressures Gold prices so this is worth noting.
1. Momentum is shifting bullish as a bullish MACD divergence reveals itself on the daily chart.
2. This recent move was the 3rd wave down which often precedes a reversal.
3. The index is at the bottom of this future channel.
As this index recovers back towards the 200 Week EMA, it will surely scare the metals market. However, the macro downtrend is only on it's first wave down. From a technical standpoint, the second wave is often the deepest as panic sets in from the failed recovery.
Treasury Yields
Yields recently had a similar bullish MACD divergence with a very weak recovery that followed. The trend is still clear and it's highly likely to roll over as it timidly approaches the trendline in the coming months. Gold has been riding along side Bonds so this should continue to drive up prices. Depending on the severity of falling yields, it could trigger temporary crashes in the metals. But longer term, buying the dips is the way to go.
Trading is risky. Don't do it.
Long
Bullion: Gold, Silver, Platinum
Equities: GDX, PHYS, CEF, SLV, RIO, SPPP
Futures: (Not yet)
Rolling: SLV April 16th 26 Short Call to May 21st 25... for a .41/contract credit.
Notes: With only .11 worth of extrinsic left in the April 16th 26, rolled the short call down to the May 21st 25 for a .41/contract credit. Cost basis in the diagonal now at 8.08 with a 24.08 break even and a current max profit potential of .92/contract on a nine wide (10.2% ROC at max, which assumes a finish above the short call strike).