Backing Up The TruckIt seems silver is heating up. Better shine up your bullion and get ready for some crypto-like swings. From a macro perspective it looks very similar to the bullish cupping pattern on many other charts. Starting with the Fibonacci extensions measured out from the past major bull run it looks like once again, price clings to the levels like a magnet.
During the 2003-2011 bull market the most notable swings range from 65 to over 100%. The pullbacks sometimes just as violent. The 50 week EMA looks like it was a relatively solid support level and will likely remain so in the future.
Silver has already made it's first 75% move from off the 50 week EMA and has pulled back to the 0.236 fib. It looks like that could be the floor for now. Another 75ish% move would put it up between the 0.5 and 0.618 level around $40.
It will likely take some time to get there with a lot of chop. There is still a risk of the DXY having a technical relief rally especially if new starts rolling out of 'stimulus' disappointments. This is how I've been playing it considering these risks...
After it broke $20 - accumulating bits and pieces on dips, building a core long term position. Trimming and booking some profits into the larger swings.
Fib targets to watch for now:
0.382 --- 31.50
0.5 --- 37.45
0.618 --- 43ish
Trading is risky, don't do it.
Long (6% of portfolio)
Silver bullion and coins
SLV, PSLV, CEF
SLV
Gold is set for a breakoutHello traders and investors! Let's get into the business, shall we! We can see gold ina downward wedge and also a triangulation pattern. This is bullish as once the lines converge, there is a high chance that the price of GOLD will raise significantly. The RSI is maybe gonna go into oversold territory, before bouncing back to the high 1800s- low 1900s. The macd converged again, which signals a bullish setup could play out. I think you should buy GOLD when it dips below the range in the RSI, signalling a buying opportunity or when the commodity triangulates. Warning! I am not a financial adviser and take this with a grain of salt. Happy trading!
SILJ - LONG!SILJ is currently moving in an ascending triangle. We believe a breakout is very close. Fundamentally, Silver is looking very strong so we believe the breakout will be to the upside (targets are shown in the chart). External factors are out of our control so if for some reason Silver starts breaking down, $13.50 would be the first large support. Other than that, we believe the odds are in our favor. Trade smart, stay safe. - HH
THE WEEK AHEAD: TWTR, TEVA, UA, UBER, ZNGA EARNINGS; MJ, SLVA little late to the game this week, but don't think I missed much.
EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS IN UNDERLYINGS WITH HIGHLY LIQUID OPTIONS:
TWTR (53/84),* announcing Tuesday after market close.
TEVA (16/63), announcing Wednesday before market open.
UA (42/68), announcing Wednesday before market open.
UBER (11/59), announcing Wednesday after market close.
ZNGA (11/63), announcing Wednesday after market close.
Pictured here is a plain Jane 16-delta short put in TWTR in the March monthly, paying 1.48 at the mid price as of today's close with a 46.52 break even/cost basis if assigned, 3.18% ROC at max as a function of notional risk. If you're of a nondirectional bent, consider the March 19th 49/70 short strangle paying 3.00 or the 44/49/70/75 iron condor, paying 1.30.
Due to the obvious skew here, I'd also consider a double double, but it would require going ten wide on the call side due to only 5 wides being available on the call side in March at the deltas I'd want to camp out, so it's less than ideal: 2 x 42/2 x 47/70/80, paying 2.42, delta/theta 1.41/4.55.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY 30-DAY IMPLIED VOLATILITY:
MJ (74/89)
SLV (34/50)
ICLN (7/45)
JETS (7/43)
XRT (21/41)
EWZ (14/40)
XLE (18/38)
GDX (12/38)
BROAD MARKET RANKED BY 30-DAY IMPLIED VOLATILITY:
IWM (24/31)
QQQ (14/26)
SPY (10/21)
DIA (7/19)
EFA (13/18)
* -- The first metric is where 30-day lies relative to where it's been over the past 52 weeks; the second, 30-day implied.
AG to Fill Gaps and Rise!AG has left a couple of gaps on its way down in the last couple weeks. We believe these gaps need to be filled, therefore we see a rise in AG! Of course every analysis has its own story and ours could play out totally wrong, but we believe the odds are in our favor.
Right now, the orange uptrend line is being used as resistance. If the orange line breaks, next target for AG would be $24 and if that breaks then $27. At that point, we will realize our profits. If in the case AG plot twist on our story and decides to go down, then the purple line would be first support, followed by the very large bottom orange line support.
- HH
🥈Is the silver squeeze over? Things to look out forIf silver cannot break out of this bear flag to the upside, $25 seems likely leaving the people who bought in the #silversqueeze trapped, if trapped sellers rush to the exit and sell, price can waterfall down to $22-19 making it a great buy area to go long.
For a valid breakout, we should re-test the gap and it should act as support, in this example it has failed. For bulls to take control they need to break out of this bear-flag and quickly recover $30.
With the dollar rallying along with UST10 year, lower seems the path of least resistance for now.
SILVER $SLV $PSLV #SLV #silver #silversqueeze Technical View- We are breaking out of out of a 40 year old cup and handle.
- This is a pattern that is very familiar to me: The symmetrical wedge on the bull flag.
- To me it signifies an accumulation/distribution/ascendance cycle and I have traded it to great effectiveness in PLTR and PSTG:
- I believe that we are breaking out to make new ATH's, because of the strength of the bullish trend, even through the massive shorting.
- The strength of the upticks, even after the harsh rejections is shocking.
- This price action has yet to factor in the scarcity of the underlying on the market, and when this is priced in, we will begin true price discovery.
- It is only a matter of time... time I have to accumulate.
Check out my fundamental analysis and speculation in the comments.