Hi Ho Silver AwayThe longest term charts display a multi decade Cup and Handle in Silver, best seen on the 100-year log chart. While I will not be around for it in my life, the target is around $100 per oz.
SLV
Silver will try retest $27 level very likely in few days...📈Just today fresh idea of near silver market movement...
The wedge is ending SilverWe are approaching the crossroads of three trendlines, each of them having potentional impact on the price action of Silver. The price has bounced down from the upper blue trendline every time but once when it continued to test the resistance above it, but still retracing nicely below the trendline during the same day. The lower blue trendline has acted as support since late November. Together the blue trendlines form a rising wedge.
The brown trendline held the price above it all the way from early May until 28 October when the price finally broke below it. Since then the brown trendline has acted as resistance.
There is a high probability that the rising wedge breaks downwards. If however, the rising wedge of the blue trendlines breaks upwards, there is a potential new rising wedge formed with the brown trendline as upper boundary. In any case I am hoping that the price will break down to offer one more buying opportunity between 23.7 and 24.8.
Trade safe and take care.
Cheers Whoop
GC - Inverse head and shoulders on dailyTrump just officially signed the relief bill, so DXY dropped 12 cents. Metals - Gold futures up .85% and SLV futures was up 3.5%. GC has possible bullish inverse head and shoulders on daily. The GLD etf has bullish Feb 2021 put/call options ratio of .22. GOLD - Barrick gold, Warren Buffett has stake in that. The most common fibonacci retracement is .50 , which is $1928 for GC. GL!
Silver to breakout next week! $slvSilver to break out next week and target the monthly resistance before the end of January. Great time to long silver.
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THE WEEK AHEAD: SLV, GDX, XLE, IWM/RUTWith two shortened market weeks in a row for Christmas and New Year's, I probably won't be doing a ton here, but figured I'd do a post for how exchange-traded funds are looking in the waning weeks of 2020 ... .
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY PERCENTAGE THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE NEAREST 45 DAYS IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE:
SLV (32/46/11.9%)
GDX (18/43/11.0%)
XLE (25/42/10.7%)
EWZ (14/40/10.0%)
XBI (21/36/9.1%)
KRE (18/36/9.3%)
I'm currently in small XLE, EWZ, KRE, and GLD positions, but will consider adding on weakness if any comes my way and the implied volatility sticks in there. One thing I don't want to do is to constantly follow high implied volatility, only to find myself grossly overweighted in energy, Brazil, and regional banks, however, so don't want to go too crazy adding in sectors that have been high in the list week in and week out over the past several months.
BROAD MARKET:
IWM (22/29/6.9%)
QQQ (19/26/6.5%)
SPY (13/22/4.9%)
Pictured here is an SPX 50 wide set up to pay at least 10% of the width of the spread, or around 5.00/contract in the expiry nearest 45 days, which would be the February 5th weekly (currently 47 days until expiry). I would ordinarily opt for a higher implied volatility RUT setup, but there currently isn't a February 5th expiry available. You can certainly go with the January 29th (40 days) or the February 19th (59 days), with the preference being to put these on in a down day or days. Smaller account should consider going with SPY or QQQ spreads* with the appropriate combination of of contracts and spread widths commensurate with your account size.
BOND FUNDS:
TLT (1/15/3.5%) (1.609% Yield)
EMB (11/8/2.6%) (4.024% Yield)
HYG (7/10/2.1%) (4.917% Yield)
AGG (29/9/1.9%) (2.252% Yield)
In the IRA, I've been selling HYG short put here of 30 days' duration or so for a credit that is around the monthly dividend. With the December 18th short put having expired worthless, I'll look at adding some in the January 22nd cycle, where the 85 is paying .41 at the mid. As I've pointed out before, the premium in bond funds generally stinks, but I've been using this strategy as a way to deploy buying power that would otherwise be sitting there earning virtually nothing while I await down days or a higher volatility environment.
* -- Unfortunately, NDX isn't as liquid as either SPX or RUT, so I virtually never trade NDX spreads, opting instead for equivalent sizing in the QQQ's (e.g., 5 10-wides).
SLV looking goodWaiting for a top in micro for buying opportunity. Looks good to get above previous highs on this move
SLV - Patiently waitingSilver has not taken out last week's high despite a spirited rally today. I lightened up some on SLV last week anticipating a three week test of the low. With quad-witching on Friday, could be lots of volatility even extending to metals. Dollar continues to be super weak.
Could be wrong and SLV can continue to move higher but I play the patterns that I know and will patiently wait to see how we are going to close on Friday. Holding at or above 21.05 would be an intermediate-term entry point and onward to the 30s.
Last year, I had been anticipating a double bottom formation with prices taking out a top just below 20. Theory says that after breaking through that top (occurring around Aug 2016), prices would come back down to test that breakout point and move much higher. The March madness in the markets caused silver to make new lows. But ignoring the March craziness, I'm am sticking with that philosophy that we did make a double bottom, have come back to test and will then move to higher prices.
That being said, previous posts showed that I had expected still lower prices and they still might occur, actually testing that breakout level around 20. But as the Stochastic indicator is now heading upward, momentum is shifting. If we wind up closing below the 21 level on Friday, a little more patience will be in order. But I think we are close. This weekly setup is important to keep an eye on and if successful, is worth placing your bets on it.
Silver (AUD)- Daily chart. Likely respect 50% retracement. Silver (AUD)- Daily chart. Likely respect 50% retracement.
GOLD 19 YEARS AGOThe GOLD to SPX ratio currently looks similar to 2001. Where were you 19 years ago? I know where I was and I was clearly not buying enough gold! Hindsight is clear.. or should I say 20/20? Seeing as history tends to rhyme, precious metals look like the better deal over the next decade- especially if you hold them in your possession.
SLV to 30 by Mar?Doesn't it look like a nice huge pennant?
We might see SLV @ 30 by Mar.
In any case I would be very cautious about this one as there are many additional inputs to be taken into account before trading this just on the basis of this pattern.
Long AGQ, Gold mining companiesWe are almost there with a new bull cycle.
AGQ entry price 43, but could be slightly better in the next couple of days.
personally, I am not planning on stop loss for this one but if you want, stop loss at the previous low. The first profit target should be around 55.
This is a monthly cycle trade that should happen around mid-Jan.
THE WEEK AHEAD: GDXJ/GDX, XLE, KRE, SLV, IWM/RUTEARNINGS:
No options liquid underlyings announcing earnings this week that meet my criteria for a volatility contraction play, although ORCL (24/31) and WORK (2/33) both announce and could be played in some other way.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE THE JANUARY AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE:
GDXJ (14/41/12.1%)
XLE (25/41/10.4%)
KRE (23/40/10.6%)
SLV (28/41/10.2%)
GDX (15/38/10.2%)
EWZ (15/39/10.0%)
BROAD MARKET EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE THE JANUARY AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE:
IWM (23/28/7.1%)
QQQ (20/27/6.3%)
DIA (15/21/5.2%)
SPY (12/20/4.8%)
EFA (17/24/4.4%)
Pictured here is a RUT January 22nd 1655/1705 short put vertical with the short option leg camped out at the 16 delta. Markets are showing wide in the off hours, but look to get at least 10% of the width of the spread out of any play, with the preference being to put something on in a down day with the accompanying rise in volatility and expansion of the "probability cone." A smaller alternative would naturally be in IWM, where I'd look to get at least .50 out of January 22nd 162.5/167.5 5-wide.
For those who like to swim naked, the IWM January 22nd 162.5 (15 delta) and was paying 1.91 as of Friday close (1.15% ROC at max as a function of notional risk; 8.93% annualized).
* * *
On the IRA/retirement account front, I'll be looking to programmatically deploy buying power in broad market over medium to long-term time frames over the next several weeks and then turn to focusing on shorter term plays, so you're likely to see some apparently oddball things in my ideas feed that won't make a ton of sense looked at in isolation and won't be for everybody not only due to buying power effect, but due to duration. I'm using SPY here, but one can certainly do something similar in another of the cheaper (a relative term) exchange-traded funds with high liquidity that will allow you to ladder out in time without giving up too much to lack of liquidity in longer duration.
Essentially, it will look like a short put ladder, but with the rungs put on over time in increasing duration in similarly delta'd strikes or in strikes which pay a certain ROC %-age relative to the strike price (e.g., the SPY February 19th 321 short put, paying 3.27; the March 19th 300 short put, paying 3.02; the April 16th 283, paying 2.87, etc.), after which the individual rungs will be separately managed.
Although this isn't particularly buying power efficient relative to defined risk spreads, I'm shooting for a setup that is relatively set and forget running into retirement where I don't necessarily have to pop my portfolio open on a daily (or even weekly) basis to manage trades, but can go for fairly lengthy periods of time without having to touch or manage rungs and with modest expectations as to ROC %-age.
As a "quasi-cash" option, I'll also continue to deploy idle buying power in things like HYG puts (See Post Below) just that I'm not earning 0% of 0 and where I'm comfortable taking on shares and selling call against. Point in fact, that is probably not a bad stand-alone setup for an extremely conservative investor who isn't keen on taking broad market bullish assumption positions at all-time-highs where a number of people are calling "bubble" week after week. That being said, even this type of setup isn't riskless, as we saw in the March "sell everything" dip. At some point, you will potentially have to take on shares ... .
Is gold bullish again. Reasearch, setups. ExplainedGold was a safety hedge in an uncertain world. There is no surprise we saw a massive sell-off with Covid vaccines being announced. Both vaccines are still waiting on final FDA approval. The real game-changer however could be Johnson & Johnson's vaccine which only requires one shot and no special refrigeration outside that already widely required for current vaccines. Johnson & Johnson are expected to have interim data on its vaccine sometime in January which could mean emergency use authorization as soon as February.
So overall the vaccine news is still very promising. However, the damage to the economy is already done and it will take years to recover after COVID. Despite massive stimulus key economic data is very weak.
Middle-term setup
Gold was unable to rally even with a weak dollar. It seems last week metal finally rebuilt its correlation with the greenback. MA200 turned out to be a buyers zone. But is it a jerk reaction or gold is trying to start a new wave to the upside?
Formation of higher low or kind of base formation is needed to have confidence in buying gold. However, we already can identify a bullish setup:
Cycles point we are close to the bottom and new rally.
The seasonal indicator is turning to the upside.
Valuation model shows gold is undervalued.
Technical analysis
With that in mind let's have a look at the technical picture. Gold used to follow flagging formations. We had three similar patterns on the weekly chart during the last two years and it played very well. There are early signs gold is getting ready for the next wave up with another flagging formation.
The metal reached the Fibo retrace zone that is also near MA200 along with the 2012 bounce highs as support. Technically till gold holds above this zone, there are chances to test 2400 and 3000 in extension given enough time. This is not something that will happen in a few weeks – this trend will likely take place over months, and even years. Breaking below mentioned range is a trend change.
Will Gold rally if the Dollar goes up?
Let's not forget the huge government debt and potential asset bubble. Gold and Dollar are both means of safe haven. Definitely, under certain circumstances (like mentioned above) they can move in one direction.
GOLD - WHAT IS THE DEAL WITH NOVEMBER?Gold has entered the pivot zone. The hard metal is always a hold to me personally, but it helps to study the charts to get an idea of the algorithmic driving forces and other oddities. In this case, I couldn't help but see this Nov Nov Nov trend and the math behind the madness. The pattern suggests it'll be supportive. Watch it closely the next few weeks. We need to see strength come in to confirm support and upward continuation. Do not dismiss the possibility of a deeper correction.. There's no such thing as "impossible" when in comes to financial assets.. especially in 2020-after all, we did see oil trade MINUS $37 this year. Keep an open mind while in wonderland.
Silver (AUD) - Symmetrical triangle consolidation. Silver (AUD) - Symmetrical triangle consolidation.
Everything Update 11.20.20Taking a look at the weekly progress of multiple correlated markets and updated price targets: Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, USD, S&P500
Bitcoin
Excluding the March mayhem deviation in price, weeks ago there were hints of a parabolic trend starting to develop.
The breakout of a macro downtrend and weekly candle close above it was the buy signal.
Using macro fibonacci extensions I'm still anticipating a relentless squeeze with occasional dips to the longer term target of about $33,700, and will be watching for volume to start trending up.
US Dollar
Weeks ago it appeared a consolidation pattern was forming and momentum was to the downside.
I am still projecting one more leg down followed by a swift rebound up to the 200 week E M A. Eventually rolling back over to the longer term target below.
Gold
Not much changed with gold this week. Looks like a base is still building at the previous all time high levels.
Using macro fibonacci extensions, the intermediate term target is still $2300ish.
Next buy signal for Gold is a break out of the downtrend with the daily MACD above zero.
Silver
Weeks ago a consolidation pattern was forming.
Now that pattern has been validated and a breakout is imminent. Target $35ish.
Using the macro fibonacci extensions the longer term target looks to be around $58 or even $86.
SandP 500
Lots of speculation of a crash here. My thoughts are that reality lies somewhere in the middle and money will flow into the SandP stocks that have not fully recovered yet. I'm looking to buy short term dips, especially near the grey bars where heavy volume came in previously. If the dollar continues it's descent into the abyss then the SandP, along with all the aforementioned markets, will surely go up, up, and away.
Trading is risky. Don't do it and don't listen to me.
Long
Crypto: BTC, ETH
Gold: MGCG21, PHYS, GDX, other mining stocks
Silver: SLV, CEF
Other Equities: Oil/Gas stocks, TCEHY, BABA, and others
Silver $SLV offering a 10 percent ROI with some Patience: YAWN?$SLV makes a nice long, on silver futures. The gain is not tremendous, but it seems "safe" (A word I loathe using, but will).
With Au trending up, Ag should match it after it finishes this bottom out -- It's down 0.5% pre-market and may fall a full percentage point, at which entrance can be considered.
This won't knock the socks off a thing - but who flicks boogers at actual gains? Not this trader.
LUCK, BS, and whatever else,
BDR
