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SLV

THE WEEK AHEAD: AAL, TSLA, SNAP, NFLX EARNINGS; XOP, GDXJ, SLVEARNINGS: Got a bunch of potentially worthwhile, earnings announcement volatility contraction plays on tap this coming week. Here there are, ordered by "bang for your buck": AAL (29/99/19.7%), announcing Thursday before market open: Due to its size, I would probably go short straddle or iron fly, with the November 20th 12 short straddle paying 2.46 (19.7% as a function of stock price), and the November 20th 8/12/12/16 four-wide iron fly, paying 2.00 even. TSLA (29/79/19.1%), announcing on Wednesday after market close. Pictured here is a 10-wide iron condor, with the short option legs set up at the 20 delta. Markets are showing wide in the after hours, but would adjust strikes as necessary to get at least one-third the width of your wings in credit (i.e., 3.33 for a 10 wide, 1.67 for a five, etc.). SNAP (35/97/17.2%), announcing Tuesday after market close. The November 20th 19 delta 24/35 short strangle was paying 1.35 at the mid price, with the defined risk 22/25/33/36 iron condor paying 1.11. NFLX (43/62/14.3%), announcing on Tuesday after market close. The November 20th 455/465/635/645 was paying 3.91 at the mid price as of Friday close. As with the TSLA defined risk play, look to adjust strikes as necessary to get at least one-third the width of your wings in credit. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS, RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AND SCREENED FOR THOSE PAYING GREATER THAN 10%: XOP (14/55/13.1%) GDXJ (18/49/12.6%) SLV (39/50/11.2%) XLE (26/45/10.2%) EWZ (15/42/10.0%) BROAD MARKET: QQQ (33/35/8.0%) IWM (29/33/7.2%) SPY (23/27/5.8%) EFA (18/22/4.6%) IRA DIVIDEND EARNERS, RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AND SCREENED FOR THOSE PAYING GREATER THAN 10%: SLV (39/40/11.2%)* XLE (26/45/10.2%) KRE (24/43/10.1%) EWZ (15/42/10.1%) MUSINGS: 16 days left until the general election. Out of an abundance of caution, I'm not adding anything here, but may do some "window dressing" rolls of my IWM and QQQ shorts puts I have on in the November 20th expiry just to lock in realized profit, and I'll do an educational post as to what that would entail. Handsitting, thumb twiddling while the markets do their thing is the hardest part ... . * -- Neither SLV nor GLD pay a dividend.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by NaughtyPines
5
SLV closed at trend lineClosed at just at the trend line and a major confluence point. The trend is clearly down from the 8 hour view. RSI just broke up trend giving a big warning sign. RSI trend breaking is normally a LEADING indicator which could mean trend line break for the price line. SInce this is 8 hour chart it would carry more weight for sure. Disclaimer, this is only for entertainment and education purposes and doesn't serve by any means as a buy or sell recommendation. Personally I hold both long term long positions and occasionally short term short position, for disclosure purpose.
AMEX:SLV
by hanzhao311
OPENING (IRA): SLV JANUARY 15TH 18.5 SHORT PUT... for .48/contract. Notes: Selling some more SLV (30-day at 47.7%), as well as collating my "ladder" into a single post. Will add in a December monthly "rung" once that becomes available, assuming the volatility hangs in there. Collected 1.74/contract in total. Here's the way I look at this trade relative to one put on in GLD: Currently, GLD is trading at 178.16, SLV at 22.65, so GLD is about 8 times the notional value of SLV here. The November 20th GLD 15 delta 184 strike is paying 1.14; the November 20th SLV 14 delta strike at 19. .31 and 8 x .31 = 2.48. Consequently, you're getting more than 2 x "bang for your buck" in risk premium as a function of stock price in SLV than GLD here, primarily due to the differential between SLV 30-day IV at 47.7% versus GLD's 20.4%.
AMEX:SLV
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: UAL, DAL, SLB, WBA EARNINGS; XOP, SLV, QQQEARNINGS: There are four options highly liquid underlyings that pop up on my screener for next week with 30-day implied of >50%: UAL (23/88/22.6%)* (on Wednesday after market close); DAL (13/74/19.1%) (Tuesday before market open); SLV (18/59/16.4%) (Friday, before market open), and WBA (43/54/12.2%) (Thursday, before market open). Pictured here is a directionally neutral 29/50 short strangle in the November monthly with the options camped out at the 16 delta, yielding a 2 x expected move break even on the put side and > 2 x expected move on the call. Delta/theta -.41/6.00; paying 1.87 at the mid price as of Friday close (.94 at 50% max). The DAL November 20th, 16 delta 27/42 short strangle was paying 1.83 at the mid price as of Friday close; delta/theta 1.48/4.39. SLB is small enough to short straddle, but would go "skinny," as the November only has 2.5 wides to play with. The November 20th 15/17.5 was paying 1.48 as of Friday close, but treating it as a short straddle and taking profit at 25% max (.37) isn't particularly compelling, so would probably pass on the play and deploy buying power elsewhere. WBA suffers from a similar affliction (2.5 wides out in November), but the 32.5/40 is paying 1.54 there, albeit with break evens greater than the expected move, but not quite 2 x. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AND SCREENED FOR THOSE PAYING >10%: XOP (15/56/14.5%) SLV (45/51/13.1%) GDXJ (15/49/12.9%) EWA (15/42/11.6%) XLE (27/43/11.2%) GDX (15/40/10.7%) XBI (29/43/10.3%) USO (4/43/10.1%) BROAD MARKET RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING: QQQ (28/33/8.2%) IWM (25/32/7.6%) SPY (19/25/5.9%) EFA (13/20/4.8%) DIVIDEND PAYERS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AND SCREENED FOR THOSE PAYING >10%: KRE (25/44/11.7%) EWZ (15/42/11.6%) XLE (27/43/11.2%) GENERAL MUSINGS: I already have a UAL covered call on, so am unlikely to partake in that underlying further here. Moreover, in the IRA/retirement account, I'm already deployed in everything at the top of the heap from an implied volatility standpoint, although I may carry on with my standard weekly 16-delta short put in the broad market instrument with the highest implied volatility, which would be QQQ. Alternatively, I'll do a QQQ 10-percenter (See Post Below) instead, as NDX isn't fantastically liquid, and a November 27th (currently, 48 days until expiry) will be available. To emulate a 50-wide, however, in NDX, I'll have to go 10-wide with 5 contracts or 5 wide with 10, etc. For example, the November 27th 240/245 is paying .50, and I'd have to sell 10 of those to emulate the NDX November 27th 9925/9975, paying 5.04. I would naturally prefer just selling one NDX spread, since it means fewer fees, but if the bid/ask is grotesque, I'll just have to go with QQQ or a RUT 50 wide. (The RUT November 27th 1385/1435 was paying 5.04 at the mid as of Friday close). * -- The first metric is the implied volatility rank (where implied volatility is currently relative to where it's been over the last 52 weeks); the second, 30-day implied volatility; and the third, what the November at-the-money short straddle is paying as a percentage of stock price.
NASDAQ:UAL
by NaughtyPines
SLV Upside SLV has been taking a beating towards the latter half of September. It gapped down pretty drastically from the 25 range down to 21s but over the last week, it has been building up nicely. I will be watching SLV this week, and hoping for a gap up to the high 23's low 24's. Ideally, we can get some action trapped in the box, like we saw during Aug until late September I think we can get action back up to the mid 25's as RSI looks like it has some more room to run, and received buy signal with MACD. Also price action crossed 20 MA and using 50 EMA as support today.
AMEX:SLV
by itsmiguelsol
1
Will the miners offer one more dip?I am wildly bullish on the miners and precious metals over the longer term but I suspect another corrective leg down. GDX has been forming a giant ascending wedge from 2013-2020 and just broke out of that pattern this year. The drop in March was just a small piece of that puzzle that flushed a lot of new & experienced traders out of the trade. I pointed out several times that it was potentially an extremely good buying opportunity. That turned out to be true and the miners have been one of my best trades this year. I'm not an expert on Elliott Wave Theory but I'm seeing what looks like 5 waves up that completed in August. Perhaps now price is still stuck in some type of correction before a much larger move takes place. Take note of the red flag on my lower indicator. There's clearly a trend there and price has not dropped enough to complete another touch. There's no rule that says it must but it's just something to watch. Be patient. Be smart. Do YOUR OWN homework. Follow price. Ignore emotion... and get ready!
AMEX:GDX
by gghsusa
THE WEEK AHEAD: DAL, CCL EARNINGS; GDXJ/GDX, SLV, KREEARNINGS: CCL (28/88/25.9%) and DAL (18/77/22.1%)* announce earnings on Thursday. The DAL November 20th 21 delta, 2 x expected move 26/41 short strangle is paying 2.41 or 7.6% as a function of stock price (1.20 at 50% max; 3.8% as a function of stock price). I've pictured a short put here as the simplest play to get in on a sector that has been hammered by the pandemic, assuming you don't mind potentially being assigned at that price to work a longer-term play (i.e., covered calls). CCL is small enough to play via short straddle, with the November 20th 15 short straddle paying 3.92 or 25.9% as a function of stock price (.98 at 25% max; 6.5% as a function of stock price). Alternatively, the > 2 x expected move 10/20 short strangle is paying .93 (.46 at 50% max; 3.0% as a function of stock price). EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH >35% 30-DAY IMPLIED RANKED BY PERCENTAGE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE: TQQQ (41/103/30.2%) XOP (19/60/17.3%) USO (10/55/146%) GDXJ (20/50/15.1%) SLV (39/48/13.5%) EWZ (21/46/14.1%) XLE (30/44/131%) XBI (36/45/13.0%) GDX (19/42/12.7%) SMH (27/47/11.2%) QQQ (35/35/10.5%) BROAD MARKET: QQQ (35/35/10.5%) IWM (32/34/9.8%) EFA (25/22/9.0%) SPY (21/26/8.0%) IRA DIVIDEND EARNERS/PREMIUM SELLING: KRE (28/47/13.6%) (Current Yield: 3.83%) SLV (39/48/13.5%) (No Yield; Precious Metals Position) EWZ (21/46/14.1%) (Current Yield: 3.80%) XLE (30/44/13.1%) (Current Yield: 7.52%) XBI (36/45/13.0%) (Current Yield: .35%; Premium Selling Play) SMH (27/47/11.2%) (Current Yield: 0.00%; Premium Selling Play) QQQ (35/35/10.5%) (0.60% Yield; Premium Selling Play) MUSINGS: With the general elections now 29 days away, I'm not doing much here in terms of adding new positions. With the margin account in particular, I'm looking at going completely flat at or near October opex and then watching the show from the sidelines. On the IRA/retirement account front, I'm already in most of the underlyings at the top of the implied volatility ladder, so don't anticipate doing much here anyway. I will naturally look at delta on a portfolio-wide basis to see whether I need additional delta one way or the other to make myself less directional running into the elections. We could, after all, conceivably see one of a variety of things depending on how things play out (i.e., relief rally, sell-off, "sideways nothing burger"). With Friday's sell-off, however, I'm tempted to add a smidge more of QQQ in the November cycle for my weekly 16 delta, 45 days 'til expiry broad market short put (the November 20th 16 delta 237 short put was paying 3.73 at the mid as of Friday close; 1.60% ROC as a function of notional risk). * -- The first metric is where 30-day implied volatility is relative to where it's been over the past 52 weeks; the second, 30-day implied volatility; and the third, the percentage the November at-the-money short straddle is paying as a function of stock price.
NYSE:DAL
by NaughtyPines
Silver gets AO buy signal on 15 min chartThat said, we are at a critical stage again with the resistance of key level and not yet reach HH breakout at 23.6. At the same time if Silver can not push up above 23.6 and keep the momentum, then the AO divergence from the double top will probably incur many sellings. These are all short term analysis. However, we can't loss sight that silver is still in strong down trend on 4 hour (and 8 hour/daily) charts. Disclaimer, this is only for entertainment and education purposes and doesn't serve by any means as a buy or sell recommendation.
OANDA:XAGUSD
by hanzhao311
Silver seasonality analysis that could helpPlease refer to the following link for a great seasonality analysis from Kitco: www.kitco.com If history tells us anything, Silver seasonality shows that October will normally see a bounce up in silver even though it could be short lived . Then from October peak through early December it is normally a down trend. Mid December through February will a good bullish period for Silver, so is end of June through mid September that is the second bullish phase for silver. Disclaimer, this is only for entertainment and education purposes and doesn't serve by any means as a buy or sell recommendation.
AMEX:SLV
by hanzhao311
The Absurdly Low Cost of SilverAny good trader or investor will tell you to buy low and sell high. Unfortunately, the masses tend to do the opposite- either because they follow the crowd into popular stocks/assets or they like something too much and make it personal (they believe strongly in something). In my opinion, the best way to actually measure value is to compare it to something. We all know TECH stocks are big right now- and they might continue to be for the next year or two. I don't know. But let's measure a hard asset against tech stocks to compare what is "low" vs "high". You can do this with oil, natural gas, coffee, lumber, toilet paper, etc.. In this case, I'm looking at silver compared to tech stocks (NDX). If you look at SILVER divided by the NASDAQ (SILVER/NDX), you get this really neat ratio that can help to identify the value of silver compared to the NASDAQ and look at the history of how the rotations work. You can be sure, SMART money is all over these ratio's. I prefer to buy low.
TVC:SILVER
by gghsusa
12