SLV
OPENING (IRA): SLV NOVEMBER 20TH 18 SHORT PUT... for a .46/contract credit.
Notes: 30-day at 52% with expiry-specific implied at 55.4%. Adding to my SLV (See Post Below) to establish a precious metals position in my IRA that is more scalable than GLD. I'd ordinarily ladder out here, but there's no December monthly.
Break even: 17.54.
Gold Retracement StrategyI've been following the path of gold ($GLD) and silver ($SLV), and how it's been relating to $DXY. Here is the path that I think it will take. First, I think we're going to get to the .382 fib (~1838), then we're going to go back up to the .236 fib (~1929), and then back down to complete the 50% retrace at the .5 fib (~1765). From there, we should move up substantially. This lines up nicely with $SLV as well.
That's my best guess based on what I see! (Not financial advice!)
SLV - one possible wave countDear EW experts, please chime in with your insights for our members here. The count since the July take-off seems reasonable to me as one scenario. Appreciate everyone's feedback/insights.
Disclaimer, this is only for entertainment and education purposes and doesn't serve by any means as a buy or sell recommendation.
THE WEEK AHEAD: COST, GDXJ/GDX, XOP, SLV, EWZA late "Week Ahead" post after a short road trip ... .
EARNINGS:
There aren't many options liquid underlying volatility contraction plays on tap this week. COST (35/38/6.8% (October)-10.1% (November) announces on Thursday after market close, but the volatility metrics aren't the greatest for a contraction play with 30-day at 38, the October monthly at expiry-specific 37.8%, and the November monthly at 34.8%. My general cut-off to pull the trigger on something is a 30-day greater than 50%, so I'm likely to pass on this one.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH 30-DAY GREATER THAN 35% AND RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING:
TQQQ (42/103/33.7%)
GDXJ (23/58/18.3%)
XOP (17/55/17.8%)
GDX (24/49/15.0%)
SLV (45/48/15.2%)
EWZ (20/48/15.1%)
XLE (27/44/14.0%)
SMH (25/40/12.2%)
QQQ (36/37/11.6%)
IWM (33/35/11.0%)
Pictured here is a GDXJ November 20th 45/65 short strangle with the short options camped out at around the 20 delta that's paying 2.95 at the mid price. Although it's a little early for the November cycle (58 days until expiry) if like to keep things in that 45 day wheelhouse, this is the best bang for your buck as a function of stock price on the board, followed by XOP, GDX, and XLV.
BROAD MARKET:
QQQ (36/37/11.6%)
IWM (33/35/11.0%)
SPY (23/29/9.0%)
EFA (23/24/7.5%)
I've been engaging in programmatic 45 days until expiry, 16-delta short put selling in broad market in the highest 30-day implied instrument on the board. Here, it would be QQQ. However, there are only an October 30th (37 days) or a November 20th (58 days) expiry available, where the 16 delta strikes are paying 3.27 (the October 30th 235) and 4.22 (the November 20th 226). I've already got an October 30th short put hanging out there, so may just wait until next week when an early November weekly becomes available.
IRA DIVIDEND-GENERATORS WITH 30-DAY GREATER THAN 35% AND RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING:
SLV (45/48/15.2%)
EWZ (20/48/15.1%)
KRE (26/44/14.5%)
Silver Trust SLV updateHit my target for this correction. Expecting ~20 right now. More bullish above ~22.85
Dangerous Silver LiningSilver, SI1!, which made its wonderful rally recently, is now under serious headwinds.
Not only is it technically challenged, it is also under pressure from a rising USD, and a strong Gold retracement.
Breaking down from a triangle, with deteriorating MACD, and triggering a Sell signal, silver has a probable support around 23, else should check in at 19. Possible extension to 17.50, about US Elections.
Gold - Still holding strongI am not sure what gold's long term outlook is, but it has been holding strong after the ATH rally. This morning was a really deep test, but the price rebound very quickly. I don't think there is much to worry about. Its normal to see these kind of tests to determine support. The fact it bounced back above support was promising. I would not be surprised if gold makes a break to the upside. Will have to see what the closing price is today.
This represents a serious breakdown for silver (SLV)As I expect many others have commented on, this breakdown from the consolidating triangle bodes ill and represents the correction and reversion to mean I've been expecting in precious metals. I am still very bullish long-term but please watch the cup and handle pattern in gold to ensure it sticks, otherwise something more serious is afoot. What worry's me also is the shortness of the tail so I definitely expect this to fall further!
$SLV - Pennant on Daily Resolved Bearish ! Headed Much Lower !As we can see from the above daily chart of the Silver ETF, the nail biting pennant that has formed over the past few weeks and kept us all on the edge of our seat - along with GLD - has resolved bearish with todays move. Target is $18 - $19.
Silver looking for 25 or less...Previously projected on Silver, and called a top accurately, this is part two... the retracement. Perhaps much to the disbelief of many, and precisely the reason it would be happening.
Technicals, particularly MACD, point to more downside risks.
Looking for a lower low and to test 25.
Gold - 50% RetracementBased on the strength of the US Dollar ($DXY) and the movement of gold, it looks like it could be retracing back to the $1765 area. $DXY $GLD $XAUUSD $XAGUSD $SLV
Time to sell silver for Goldi definitely believe this is the time we have to sell silver for more Gold. it is struggling to surpass the green pivot point . Meaning i do not think it is going to lower the silver price any time soon. . Also it has already broken out of the red pivot point. i was looking at the overall silver analysis and i believe another bull market is potentially on the way. This ratio is just proving it . silver is going to cost more resulting in a lower gold silver ratio. Im buying silver now before it makes another big move. Please leave some feedback! Are you buying or not ?
Hi Ho Silver, we go like this till we go up!As you can see on the tremendous chart, silver will go and do things before it goes on a tremendous rocket ride.
Some little gap resitances and supports being seen on the different time frames.
Overall bigger picture is a symmetrical triangle which should resolve bullishly based on the SLV/GLD ratio chart.
In the shorter term we may follow roughly follow the yellow line into some of the gap candle resistances on different time frames.
Upper spot which the yellow path I've drawn hits comes into a moving average at the same time, then back down into our triangle before we resolve to a grind upwards out of September before final rocket up.
I haven't posted the SLV/GLD ratio, but I guess I should to show that the timeframes are in alignment for the bull run.
Gold Technical Wedge for 9/17A better entry is on the way next week for gold, with multiple reasons for price to be supported at 1900/oz.
Gold to 2500 USDNice confluence of fib extensions/projections at $2,500.00 USD. Also terminates right at the upper band of the trend from 1980 and 2011 (not drawn) when viewed on a log scale. I believe gold is finishing up a symmetrical triangle from early Aug. '20, and before continuing it's parabolic move up. If so, get ready for some fireworks!
SLV OBV divergence still distributing it looks like, on the 30 min chart.
Disclaimer, this is only for entertainment purpose and doesn't serve by any means as a buy or sell recommendation.
Silver big day analysis, continued..the OBV story on the 8 hour chart still holds. 2 possible PT based on 200 hullma for 6 hour and 8 hour chart for reference. Still the OBV indicator points to a downward correction soon. let's see how this will play out.
big day Wednesday potential big move for silverOBV is downward during this period of sideway trading..could possibly signal downward pressure with sellers in control.
Disclaimer, this is only for entertainment purpose and doesn't serve by any means as a buy or sell recommendation.
Silver looks really complicated herewait for clarity. but one possible scenario here.
Disclaimer, this is only for entertainment purpose and doesn't serve by any means as a buy or sell recommendation.
OPENING (IRA): SLV NOVEMBER 20TH 21 SHORT PUT... for a .43/contract credit.
Notes: The highest background implied on the board in my options liquid exchange-traded funds at the moment, with 30-day at 51.93%. I'm viewing this as a starter position to replace my GLD for exposure to precious metals, since the implied is generally higher, so you get more bang for your buck. There is no December currently, so just doing a "one rung" here. 2.09% ROC at max; 11.56% annualized. A similarly delta'd GLD short put in the same cycle: .871% ROC at max; 4.82% annualized. This is due to GLD's lower implied at 20.8% (30-day).
