SLV
OPENING (IRA): SLV NOVEMBER 20TH 21 SHORT PUT... for a .43/contract credit.
Notes: The highest background implied on the board in my options liquid exchange-traded funds at the moment, with 30-day at 51.93%. I'm viewing this as a starter position to replace my GLD for exposure to precious metals, since the implied is generally higher, so you get more bang for your buck. There is no December currently, so just doing a "one rung" here. 2.09% ROC at max; 11.56% annualized. A similarly delta'd GLD short put in the same cycle: .871% ROC at max; 4.82% annualized. This is due to GLD's lower implied at 20.8% (30-day).
GOLD/SILVER RATIO UPDATEThanks for viewing,
Initially posted in 2019.
I was a buyer of silver bullion since silver crossed the 80 mark. That included adding significantly to the holdings during the steep drop earlier in the year.
It hasn't always been a comfortable trade, but it has worked out rather well to date.
What I expect next is, despite continuing tail-winds for bullion, the G/S ratio will head back towards the 50 line of the RSI/MACD. So both gold and silver will continue to gain as the money printing / negative nominal and real yields on bonds / geopolitical uncertainty / record-breaking government deficits / shortages of physical bullion etc environment continues (I expect at least 4 out of these 5 conditions to continue for at least 5 - 10 years). Silver will continue to gain at about a 2:1 ratio to gold despite overall % gains slowing down somewhat for a time (smaller, less liquid market). So the G/S ratio will level-off for a while before head further down - I HOPE to 45 or below - at which point I will sell silver and purchase (more) gold.
Silver is a swing trade only as a way to gain more physical gold. I have actually bought my first silver ETF this week (my silver holdings are less than 1% ETF and gold is 0% ETF). Sorry I digress, I a strong aversion of bullion ETFs and would be very uncomfortable with any significant portion of my bullion allocation being in ETF form - if you don't hold it in your hand, it isn't yours). Gold isn't a trade and I would be unlikely to ever willingly part with it and will probably continue to add to holdings (even at much higher prices) for a very long time. Gold is unsurance, money par excellence, and the best way to hedge holding a weak base currency.
If it all works out I will end up with well over twice (by weight) the amount of gold (almost 3:1 for some purchases earlier in 2020), as compared to the amount of gold I could have bought at the time I purchased the silver. I'm just using silver as leverage against gold. Medium term, an $80+ price is on the cards (yes I know that sounds rather speculative right now) and at a 1/45 ratio that would imply a gold price of only $3,600 an ounce. Remember both BofA and Goldman expect a $3000+ gold price before the end of 2021, so my trade could realistically be completed in 2021-22 (I set a 2-5 year time horizon on this trade in 2019). On a bit longer 5+ year time horizon, $5000/oz gold is more likely than not at the moment. Of course, that implies a significantly weaker USD - but we are already starting that journey as well.
Protect those funds (and your bullion).
GAAN Fan for silverNot nearly perfect but hopefully can service S/R from another angle. BTW, silver demonstrated good resilience in this tumultuous week and not down by too much, which is really a bullish sign IMO.
If you do performance comparison between silver and the Tech stocks, not many better performers out there.
Have a nice weekend everyone.
Missed the good divergence trade of the dayWhen you are looking at multiple screens it is hard to not miss out some very important structures. So elusive and ephemeral..wish I could have spotted this easy trade opportunity. someone chime in to shed some lights on how to not miss this kind of patterns? I don't currently have a way to alert myself of divergence.
SLV iShare I love trading SLV instead of XAG.
Simple reason, you get all the price action but you don't trade with leverage (at least on my trading platform I have that option)
I'm in for the long term with SLV. Might do a few small trades if the market signals are significant, but largely I'm HODLing.
Silver has been receiving lots of positive publicity lately wit Warren Buffet moving away from the USD. And being much more volatile than Gold, as well as cheaper, it is a great option to diversify and to be a part of the commodities market.
It is important to note that silver is used in electronics, batteries, nuclear reactors, touch screens etc. I don't see the demand decreasing for these items at this point.
Curious to hear what you trade, XAG, SLV, both?
Respectful and constructive feedback welcome.
Thanks, Ev
Silver (XAG) is trapped in a range with down bias short termBoth 1 hour and 2 hour stochastic show bearish divergence, with overarching 200 Hull EMA being resistance on the 3 and 4 hour charts. So the short term trend is a little bit tilted toward south.
Ichimoku Kijun line is showing some support, however. Pitchfork bottom line has been the resistance as well.
GLD Ascending TriangleI realize multiple people have identified the ascending triangle of GLD and stating it's bearish trend. Since the initial trend was bullish, why wouldn't it break to the upside? Congress is 99% going to pass another stimulus package which would be a positive catalyst for gold and silver. Any thoughts would be appreciated.
SLV XAGUSD Silver Rvalue TrendsTrends are trends ... don't fight them.
You trade by the second, scalp by the minute? Hold by the Day?
Then spot the trend the same way. Fit the R value, closer to "1" the better!
Then plan your price and watch the support resistance moves just fall in line to trace the trend again.
This plan had Rsquared above 0.90 for 21 days. Both the price pattern in Renko's and the Candles are valid. They show two sides of the same moves.
I used SD of 2.5 and then channels for the day were very clear.
Still see strong uptrends with sideways consolidations.
SLV XAGUSD
!Copper (+10.35%) [Hold] for Sep 20'I'm remaining long from this signal given on the 6th of last month. Currently floating +10.35% from this position-- un-marginalized. The margin account used for this trade risked 2% for a +21.034%% current floating gain on this long. Stoploss has been and is remaining just above entry.