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SLV

THE WEEK AHEAD: M, CLDR, CRWD EARNINGS; GDXJ/GDX, SLV, QQQTHE WEEK AHEAD: EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENT VOLATILITY CONTRACTION PLAYS: M (41/103/September 18.7%): Announces Wednesday before market open. Potential Plays: September 18th 13 short straddle, paying 1.30 as of Friday close, .33 at 25% max. September 18th 5/7/7/9 iron fly, paying 1.07 as of Friday close, .27 at 25% max. Look to take profit at 25% max. CLDR (68/116/September 20.1%): Announces Wednesday after market close. Potential Plays: September 18th 13 short straddle, paying 2.60 as of Friday close, .65 at 25% max. September 18th 9/13/13/17 iron fly, paying 2.13 as of Friday close, .53 at 25% max. Look to take profit at 25% max. CRWD (32/74/September 15.0%): Announces Wednesday after market close. Potential Plays: September 18th 101/145 short strangle, paying 4.03 as of Friday close, 2.01 at 50% max. September 18th 100/105/140/145. Markets are showing wide in the off hours, but look to put on a setup that pays at least one-third the width of the wings in credit. Comments: Not a ton is shaking next week for options liquid underlyings, but here are what appear to me to be the best candidates for volatility contraction plays. Naturally, I'm just preliminarily pricing these out to see whether they're potentially worthwhile, and actual strikes are likely to change somewhat running into earnings as price moves. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY IMPLIED/OCTOBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYING >10% OF STOCK PRICE: SLV (45/56/15.2%) XLE (24/39/11.2%) GDX (22/47/13.3%) GDXJ (21/58/15.7%) EWZ (17/44/12.3%) XOP (13/50/14.1%) GDXJ is paying the most as a function of stock price (15.7%), followed by SLV (15.2%), XOP (14.1%), and GDX (13.3%). WHAT THE SHORT STRANGLES NEAREST 16 DELTA ARE PAYING: The GDXJ October 16th 15/75 short strangle: 2.15, 3.6% as a function of stock price, The SLV October 16th 22/32 short strangle: .97, 3.6% as a function of stock price. The XOP October 16th 45/63 short strangle: 1.84, 3.5% as a function of stock price. The GDX October 16th 38/47 short strangle: .84, 2.0% as a function of stock price. Comments: I've already got a miners play on, so am likely to avoid getting into another closely correlated underlying here. BROAD MARKET: QQQ (29/32/8.8%) IWM (22/28/7.6%) EFA (17/20/5.6%) SPY (12/22/5.3%) WHAT THE SHORT STRANGLES NEAREST 16 DELTA ARE PAYING: The QQQ October 16th 257/320 short strangle is paying 6.51, 2.2% as a function of stock price. The IWM October 16th 140/170 short strangle, 2.93, 1.9%. The EFA October 16th 60/69 short strangle, .93, 1.4%. The SPY October 16th 317/391 short strangle, 4.95, 1.4%. Comments: In the IRA, I've been mechanically selling 45 days 'til expiry puts at the two times expected move strike (basically, the 16 delta) and will pretty much continue to do so until 30-day drops below 20%. There's always hesitancy to continue to do this at successive all-time-highs, and, yes, it is likely I will be assigned shares at some point in a >2 times expected move sell-off, after which I'll proceed to cover. That being said, I've got an inordinate amount of undeployed buying power after all the acquisitional short put ladders I put on in the sell-off have come off; I'd rather take some risk here to earn "something," all while keeping a reasonable amount of dry powder free to take advantage if we get another one of those bodice rippers we had in mid-March. This week, I'll follow the implied volatility, and as of Friday close, that was in the QQQ's. DIVIDEND EARNERS: XLU (21/23/7.1%) EWA (20/24/7.0%) TLT (18/19/4.8%) EFA (17/20/5.6%) EWZ (17/44/12.3%) IYR (17/24/6.5%) HYG (17/14/2.8%) SPY (16/22/5.3%) EMB (11/11/2.7%) The Brazilian exchange-traded fund leads the pack for the umpteenth week in a row, with XLU and EWA in distant second and third places. I'm fine with continuing to hit EWZ via acquisitional short put over and over again if that's where the implied volatility leads, but, yes, it's kind of getting old. For what it's worth: The 2 times expected move EWZ October 16th 28 short put is paying .36 per contract as of Friday close (1.2% as a function of stock price). Key: The first number in parentheses is the implied volatility rank or percentile (i.e., where implied volatility is relative to where it's been over the past 52 weeks); the second, 30-day implied volatility; and the third, the percentage of stock price that the specified monthly expiry at-the-money short straddle is paying.
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by NaughtyPines
SLV and silver continue weekly bullish trendSLV needed to close above the $24.90 higher low of last week today to continue i's bullish trend on the weekly chart. Nothing fancy here, simple upward bullish trend. Yesterday Feds promised inflation which is the ultimate bull signal for precious metals, when considering phys demand remains very high and supply is very low in the US, falling dollar, and China and other countries starting to buy electronics again, all signs point to continued rise with expected small pullbacks due to bank manipulation of the COMEX/ETF. I suspect silver, SLV and most mining stocks will out perform gold here on out since it is still extremely undervalued. As inflation rises, silver, the poor man's gold will have continued retail interest in physical as well as ETF's See my other charts for support and resistance levels, Fib levels Fed policies, and other analysis...I have been adding on every pull back and now just hanging on for the the ride up to $50 with $45 Jan calls. Don't miss the boat.
AMEX:SLVLong
by Fibonacci43
Silver - Next PlayChecking back in with Silver $SLV. If you saw our previous charts on Silver, both Gold and Silver have been on bullish runs this year. SLV seems to be consolidating at the moment and wouldn't be surprised to see a bullish break on this pennant pushing to the $34 levels. We'll be keeping a close watch on this one. Looking for confirmation before entering. Good zone would be a breakout and $26.50 buy in with a 2% trailing stop loss. Give us a follow and shoot us a Like for more analysis updates. Cheers! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. I am an amateur investor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, or stock picks, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on here, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.cHE
AMEX:SLVLong
by MannyLo
3
Silver levels show Long Term Bull PricingDay trend in pricing still show strength. Days trades still show some support and resistance levels are valid. We'll see more squeeze/consolidation before breakouts. Pullback will be expected short term. Watch Gold/Silver ratio for more buy/sell signals! GOLD-SILVER RATIO TREND GOLD AND SILVER TREND SIGNAL Gold-Silver Ratio Uptrend Gold and silver in Uptrend Buy Gold Gold-Silver Ratio Uptrend Gold and Silver in Downtrend Sell Silver Gold-Silver Ratio Downtrend Gold and Silver in Uptrend Buy Silver Gold-Silver Ratio Downtrend Gold and Silver in Downtrend Sell Gold
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by egillis214
SLV - More upside than downside - Strong supportSilver has been resilient, yet still dropping slightly as the DXY struggles at best to stay afloat trading near .94 Fed continues to print = falling Dxy = rising silver. Still extremely tight phys supply in US will keep silver prices supported and elevated as the price fluctuates due to Dxy There is strong support for from April 2013 and Aug/Sept 2013 at $23.88, as well as some recent support on the 4 hr at the same level. 4Hr chart shows SLV hitting the 50 SMA right at $23.88(ish), which further affirms strong support at that level.
AMEX:SLVLong
by Fibonacci43
THE WEEK AHEAD: GPS; SLV, GDX/GDXJ, XOP, IWM/RUTEARNINGS: GPS (37/82/17.0%) is really the only earnings announcement that interests me from a volatility contraction perspective. Pictured here is a September 18th skinny short strangle, which was paying 2.03 as of Friday close. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR IMPLIED >35% AND WHERE THE OCTOBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING >10% OF STOCK PRICE: SLV (50/61/17.4%) GDX (22/47/14.1%) XLE (21/37/11.6%) GDXJ (19/55/16.7%) EWZ (18/45/13.2%) XOP (14/49/14.0%) Juice as a function of stock price resides in SLV (17.4%), followed by GDXJ (16.7%), GDX (14.1%), and XOP (14.0%). BROAD MARKET: QQQ (23/28/8.2%) IWM (23/29/8.4%) EFA (17/21/5.6%) SPY (16/22/5.8%) IWM/RUT is where the premium is, relatively speaking, followed by the QQQ's. DIVIDEND YIELDERS: XLU (18/22/6.8%) EWA (18/22/7.8%) EWZ (18/45/13.2%) IYR (17/22/6.9%) EFA (16/22/5.6%) SPY (16/22/5.8%) HYG (15/13/3.3%) TLT (14/16/4.6%) EMB (11/10/2.8%) Brazil ... again?!
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by NaughtyPines
EXK FIb - Waiting for next move up for silverEXK is playing the Fibonacci game well on the daily and other time frame charts. Patience is key here knowing that silver is inevitably going higher between now and January. If you're holding EXK and waiting for $5 (which is not far off), the rewards will be fruitful, and $7 price range is not far-fetched due to silver's demand. Everything is pointing towards a silver rise. As CV19 subsides, miners are put into action, Fed keeps printing as they promised yesterday, dollar keeps rising, CV19 starts to abate, inflation keeps rising., inventories in the US are dried up, wholesalers are unable to receive deliver until January or February, etc. ...On every metric silver has nowhere to go but up. Scotia Bank was just fined for manipulation of silver markets so this will spook other banks and make them think twice. The near future is looking very bright and positive and EXK has way more upside than downside. I added to my position today, and will add on any future drops if any. See my other charts for SLV.
NYSE:EXKLong
by Fibonacci43