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SLV

THE WEEK AHEAD: TWTR, TSLA; GDXJEARNINGS There are a bunch of heavy-hitters reporting this week, but I'll cull it down to the most options liquid underlyings amenable to a decent volatility contraction play ... . Pictured here is a TWTR (40/52) Aug 16th 39/42 short strangle camped out around the 20 delta strikes. Paying 1.30 (.65 at 50 max) with break evens of 31.70/43.30, it's got a delta/theta metric of .73/5.42. Also reporting: SBUX (52/25), FB (45/36), FCX (31/45), CAT (29/29), TSLA (20/60), and AMZN (20/29). As you can see, the rank/implied metrics aren't "ideal" (>70 rank/>50% implied) in any of these, so would probably pass if I was truly picky, and lean toward a play in TSLA out of this group if I was less so, since at least its implied is >50% with the downside being that even that high background implied is at the low end of its 52-week range. The TSLA Sept 20th 205/215/300/310 iron condor is paying slightly more than one-third the width of the wings if mid-price filled at 3.42 with break evens at 211.58/303.42 and delta/theta metrics of -1.14/3.14. BROAD MARKET TLT (34/11) SPY (18/13) IWM (15/16) QQQ (15/17) EFA (11/11) EEM (8/16) As with last week, broad market still pretty crappy here, with pretty much everything at the low end of its 52-week range and background 30-day implied all sub-20. SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS For yet another week, premium selling opportunities are in gold and the miners ... . Top 5 By Rank: GDXJ (98/38), SLV (90/35), GLD (80/15), GDX (70/32), and TLT (34/11). And, as with last week, the most "ideal" play is in GDXJ. The September expiry should open up and populate tomorrow, which is the expiry I'd probably sell in with August winding down to 26 days 'til expiry. IRA TRADES XLU, XLP: waiting for lower or, at least, the ability to sell not a penny more short puts for something decent that are also not incredibly ridiculously out in time. I may have to reevaluate the price at which I'm willing to take on shares if we stick in here at these levels.
NYSE:TWTR
by NaughtyPines
2
SLV - Not to be outdone by Gold, Silver making moves of its ownLooking at Silver's weekly chart, it has finally cleared the overhead resistance that's been keeping it down for years. I think long dormant bulls came to life with the Fed's recently stated intention to raise inflation (yes, as backwards as that sounds, that is what was said). Rising inflation = weaker dollar = stronger precious metals. Silver tends to be more volatile than Gold so if this is the bottom with the bulls ready to take the reins, I think this is a great spot for a long position. I will be curious to see how quickly the price action moves past the dotted white line. It has been a strong support area, so it may prove to be an equally strong resistance area. Regardless, I like what I see with Silver and I'm buying the breakout.
AMEX:SLVLong
by jpbrown1023
THE WEEK AHEAD: IBM, JNJ, NFLX EARNINGS; GDXJ, GLD, SLV, GDXEARNINGS IBM (54/26; Thursday), JNJ (56/23; Tuesday before market open), and NFLX (35/41; Wednesday after market close) announce earnings next week. Unfortunately, all of them have less than ideal metrics for a volatility contraction play (>70% rank/>50% implied), so I'm likely to pass on all of them. That being said: Pictured here is an IBM 130/135/150/155 iron condor in the August cycle paying 1.53, break evens at 133.47/151.53, and delta/theta metrics of -2.47/2.80. The rank/implied metrics aren't ideal here (<70%/<50%), which is probably why it's also paying less than my idea one-third the width of the wings in credit. I would pass on it if you can't get filled for 1.67 or greater ... . BROAD MARKET TLT (31/11) QQQ (8/17) IWM (7/15) SPY (6/12) EEM (3/16) EFA (5/10) Short-term, broad market premium selling is about as crappy as it can get here. Your options are to (a) wait for a pop in volatility; or (b) sell something farther out in time where the expiry implied is higher. I will probably opt for the latter if we don't get an uptick in volatility by July opex, since waiting can be unproductive, particularly if low volatility has infected the entire market and it becomes a "protracted thing." SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS Premium selling opportunities are in gold and the miners for yet another week ... . Top 5 By Rank: GDXJ (73/34), GLD (72/15), SLV (70/20), GDX (45/28), and TLT (31/11). Metrically, the most "ideal" play is in GDXJ (exchange-traded fund ideals: >50% rank/>35% background), although we're getting somewhat short in duration for another play in the August cycle. There isn't a September expiry available yet (there will probably be one after July expires), so it might be worth a look at GDXJ next week should volatility hang in there for a September play. IRA TRADES Not doing a ton here beyond managing my covered calls post-opex. Stuff on my shopping list (XLU, XLP, HYG) has all ground higher along with the rest of the market, so I just have to patient for another one of those December style "sell everything" dips or a major uptick in volatility in those instruments.* Although I have "not a penny more" short puts on in HYG, both XLP and XLU are out of range of that kind of play, it seems, unless I want to go far out in time and get paid very little ... . * -- XLU (10/14), XLP (29/11), HYG (13/6).
NYSE:IBM
by NaughtyPines
5
The SLV Lining of Monetary IdiocyHey everyone. The poor man’s gold looks like the deal of the decade at the moment. I know we’re all in a hurry to pick out Lambo interiors during the upcoming LTC and BTC halving cycles, but don’t miss out on this. Top chart: +408% move in the 2009-11 bull market followed by a 72% correction. Sounds eerily familiar, right? More mature asset + more mechanisms by which to suppress price = longer cycles. Markets win on a long enough timeline and price will be discovered when value is realized. No telling if the bottom is in, but it’s just a hair away from 2016 lows and a few bucks off of 2008 prices. Risk seems to the upside. Bottom chart: 1:92.8 gold/silver ratio. This chart goes back to September, 1997 if stretched all the way out. Never been this high and hasn’t spent more than several weeks above 1:80 until late last fall. Maybe nobody wants silver anymore. Like…ever, ever again. Not for redeemable silver certificates…mobile electronics…electric vehicles…batteries…solar cells…antimicrobial properties…something to soak up the next round of cheap money and QE…idk. Not financial advice…do your due diligence. But don’t say nobody told ya.
AMEX:SLVLong
by HRoark64
THE WEEK AHEAD: GDXJ, GDX, GLD, XLU, SLVEARNINGS FAST (41/31), PEP (19/18) and DAL (15/26) announce earnings next week, but the rank/implied metrics aren't there for me (>70 rank; >50 implied) for an earnings-related volatility contraction play. BROAD MARKET TLT (21/10) IWM (12/16) SPY (11/13) QQQ (10/17) EEM (7/17) EFA (5/10) Weak sauce. SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS Premium selling opportunities remain in gold and the miners, with some decent background implied in the oil and gas sector and semicons: Top 5 By Rank: GDXJ (86/37), GLD (75/15), GDX (62/32), XLU (61/14), and SLV (56/19). USO (30/36), SMH (27/25), and XOP (21/31) follow thereafter ... . Pictured here, remarkably, is the exact same setup strike-wise that I posted last week in GDXJ in the August cycle -- the nearest the 20 delta 32/39 short strangle, paying 1.06 at the mid price with break evens at 30.94/40.06 and delta/theta metrics of 2.82/2.92. IRA TRADES XLU (61/14) is on my IRA shopping list with a current yield of 3.05%, but as a rate sensitive, it's ripped way higher on all this talk of cutting, cutting, cutting.* You'd think with that rank (61), it would be paying something, but the background's only at 14, so it's really no surprise that it isn't. I can either man up and sell something closer to at-the-money if I want in, and then manage the short put from there, wait for lower, sell a "Not a Penny More" at a price I'm comfortable with and then whittle away at cost basis from that point forward before taking on shares if I'm not happy with my cost basis (e.g., the Jan '20 18 delta 55),** or do something a little funkier like a 90/30 call diagonal with the long leg far out in time at a strike I'd be willing to exercise at.*** With the possibility of a no cut looming in the July cycle, I'm opting for waiting for lower. If that December "sell everything" dip is evidence of anything, it's that we'll probably have opportunities at some point going forward. * -- So have all the other rate sensitives -- IYR, XLP, TLT, HYG. ** -- I generally do that anyways as long as it's productive. *** -- I looked at a Jan '21 (no, that's not a typo) 50 long/Aug 16th 62 short call diagonal, but it's hard to price out in off hours with the setup being bid 7.78/ask 13.05. I'd be fine with the right to exercise at $50/share, but would need a Dick to sell me the setup for a price that results in a break even at or below where the underlying is currently trading to even consider that setup (i.e., not more 60.68 minus the 50 long strike or 10.68; the broker's saying the mid price for that setup is 10.42 with a resulting break even of 60.42 versus spot at 60.68). The additional benefit of that particular setup is that it's far more buying power efficient in a cash secured environment than short putting: the buying power effect of a 50 short put is the strike (50.00) minus any credit received with no right of exercise/assignment if the short put stays out of the money. It kind of begs the question of: "Why the hell don't I do that setup in the IRA more often as an acquisition strategy versus short putting?"
AMEX:GDXJ
by NaughtyPines
2
THE WEEK AHEAD: GDXJ, GLD, GDX, SLV, XLVEARNINGS No options highly liquid underlyings announcing earnings this week. BROAD MARKET EEM (35/19) QQQ (23/20) IWM (21/18) SPY (21/15) EFA (15/12) SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS There's gold premium to be had (in them there hills ... ), particularly in the miners: Top 5 By Rank: GDXJ (86/36), GLD(86/16), GDX (63/30), SLV (62/20), XLV (60/15). Pictured here is a delta neutral GDXJ short strangle in the August expiry, paying 1.28 (.64 at 50% max), break evens at 30.72/40.28, and delta/theta metrics of -2.5/2.9. For those of a defined risk bent, the August 16th 29/32/38/41 is paying .92, with break evens at 31.08/38.92, and delta/theta metrics of 1.08/1.02. The XLV August 16th 88/97 short strangle is paying 3.10 at the mid, but the markets are so wide, I'm not sure how that'll price out in the New York session. Moreover, the background implied is about that of the broad market (15 versus SPY 15), so I'm unsure of whether that's worth pulling the trigger on even if markets tighten up, even though implied's in the top half of its 52-week range. IRA TRADES This has been a tough market if you're looking to acquire either broad market (e.g., SPY), bonds (e.g., EMB, HYG, JNK, TLT), or other divvy generating underlyings (e.g., IYR, XLU), with your basic options being to (a) wait for lower; (b) sell "not a penny more" puts and get paid to wait; or (c) throw some caution to the wind, take some risk, and sell closer to at-the-money and manage those trades reactively (i.e., rolling out for credit, duration, and cost basis reduction). I've opted for a few "not a penny mores," although the return on those isn't all that compelling even though it beats the basically 0% you get for staying in cash. (See, e.g., the HYG, SPY "Not a Penny More" Trades, below). Given my particular proximity to retirement, I'm not all that keen on acquiring a bunch of stuff at near all-time-highs, so I'm pickier and probably way more risk adverse than most, so naturally the "Not a Penny Mores" will not be for everyone since you're tying up quite a substantial piece of cash secured buying power to generate fairly mundane returns.* But just because I've kind of thrown in the towel over acquiring stuff in the short to medium term doesn't mean I'm not managing what's already there. Inevitably, there's always a covered call that may need to be looked at and/or a hedge that might be sensible to erect to cut covered call net long delta that is inevitably there. (See, e.g., Overwriting Post, below). * -- Although it's apparent that you can collect sufficient premium to emulate or exceed the dividend returns on some of these underlyings without actually being in the stock itself. It kind of begs the question: "Why be in stock at all?"
AMEX:GDXJ
by NaughtyPines
1
SLV LongSilver has broken out of a multiyear descending triangle pattern to the upside. Typically a descending triangle is a bearish pattern so for it to be foiled and having gone to the upside is extra bullish. Moreover, silver entered a bullish falling wedge pattern right after, back-tested the initial triangle's resistance-turned-support and continued upwards. There is likely going to be some consolidation/corrected in the very short term but as far as long term is concerned, silver has only up to go. Silver is also trading at roughly 93:1 compared to gold. This ratio has been proven to be a bottoming signal for silver before in the 90s before it corrects to a ratio of roughly 40:1.
AMEX:SLVLong
by BigMouse777
1
THE WEEK AHEAD: GLD, GDXJ, GDX, SLV, USOEARNINGS No options highly liquid underlyings announcing earnings this week. BROAD MARKET EEM (15/18) QQQ (19/19) IWM (19/18) SPY (19/15) EFA (10/12) One word ... . Well, maybe two: "Weak sauce," with ranks in the low quarter of their 52-week ranges and background implied at sub-20 across the board. SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS Top 5 By Rank: GLD (92/16), GDXJ (71/33), SLV (64/21), GDX (48/28), USO (47/43) TBT (52/24). Pictured here is a GLD Synthetic Reverse Jade Lizard, explained in the post, below. For those of a more nondirectional bent, the Aug 16th 127/140 short strangle is paying 1.72 with a 70% probability of profit, although I'd recheck that setup at New York open for delta balance ... . GDXJ: August 16th 34 short straddle, 3.45 credit with >expected move break evens, delta/theta -11.03/3.02. GDX: August 16th 25 short straddle, 2.12 credit with >expected move break evens, but a little on the weak side in terms of credit collection. Delta/theta: -10.52/1.84. SLV/USO: August has yet to populate ... . In petro, my go-to is generally XOP (34/35), but the August expiry has yet to populate. Given the size of the underlying, I would probably continue to short straddle it here, assuming that it's still paying greater than 10% of the price of the underlying (i.e., >2.70 or so in credit for the short straddle nearest at-the-money).
AMEX:GLD
by NaughtyPines