SLV
Silver Breakout fail? This is the bearish idea!Lets keep it semi simple.
I posted a few silver charts, and as I haven't really changed my position. I have came across another pathway that doesn't go in my favor that I just cant ignore.
Check my other charts on silver to see more detail into this trade idea. They are more bullish then this possibility.
I've labeled some worse case scenarios and possible wedge fails with levels of support. I know everyone wants silver to boom, only time will tell.
My indications and more thought are detailed in my other charts.
Happy Trading, debating and speculating! I want everyone to win! FOLLOW for UPDATES!
Silver Breakout soon? Possible small retrace. Perfect Storm!I've been watching silver for quite some time now, and I can say I feel fortunate to be around for this long 20 consolidation coming to the next step.
This chart is fairly simple, as it should be.
Looking at the weekly, you can see the squeeze performing for the last 4 weeks, which would be a first, (or second if your counting 2015 in march, which went short)
Also we have our moku cloud cross, and our wedge of the last 3 years it has respected perfectly is coming to a point. Ironically the point is ending at new years almost exactly.
This leads me to believe that our DOW crash in the beginning of the year could have been worse, but "delayed" to this coming new years instead.
If the safe haven silver is "expected" to break out, but only in "bad times", it would make perfect sense for it to break out considering the DOW is ready for a bigger dip, and new years can create market fluctuations.
I believe we could dip to 14 before its next inevitable bull run.
Silver is extremely undervalued, with the most room for gains compared to gold, and people will start to realize that much quicker then we think. Ill continue to stack silver for the long haul, as one of my only assets i wont ever plan to short for 10 years.
Happy Trading, debating and speculating! I want everyone to win!
AG First Majestic Silver Corp, Down before up?Keep it simple.
I drew a yellow brick road to the next target zone. This is a 2 to 3 month play.
We have sell signals, no buy signals, with momentum even still bearish.
I dont want AG to drop to here, but I just read charts and drop emotions.
Were at the top of the wedge, with the Ichimoku turning bearish.
The bottom of the wedge is a long term support line and great value area.
Happy Trading, debating and speculating.
Check my other charts as well!
OPENING: SLV AUG/SEPT 15.5/13 CALL DIAGONAL... for a 1.89/contract debit.
Metrics:
Max Loss on Setup: $189/contract
Max Profit on Setup: $61/contract
Break Even: 14.89 versus 14.93 spot
Debit Paid/Spread Width Ratio: 75.6%
Notes: Taking a directional shot on SLV weakness here. Will look to take profit at 20% of what I put the trade on for ... .
Gold may plummet!Gold has been a terrible investment over the past several years, and while bulls expect inflationary pressures to put a bid under the metal, it doesn't appear they're winning.
Looking at GLD as a proxy, we've just violated major support. How major? We've broken the trend line going back to GLD's inception in the mid aughts. This monthly chart shows that we could be set to plummet for quite a while longer, as my oscillators are signaling sell (again, on a monthly time frame). Exacerbating the fall is the lack of meaningful inflation, but that, of course, may change in the coming months and years as growth accelerates and central banks unwind balance sheets.
Short term, I expect a bounce from this $118 level up to the support-turned-resistance trend line. So, I'm actually going long for the bounce, but I'll be looking to switch teams as prices rise and position for another leg lower.
Support is at par, or $100 (or spot gold at about $1,000).
Silver Explosion | SLV for the long termWith crypto and stocks, many overlook that boring shiny thing that used to be the basis for sound money.
Personally, i like the actual physical silver...and it's a good idea to have some for a rainy day...or financial collapse....or a zombie apocalypse (and based on how many people are on side-effect laden meds, maybe that's not so far away, though i digress).
But for now, I wanted to draw your attention to some things to note for silver. In this SLV chart, you can see a bollinger band squeeze never seen before since SLV was created. You can see prior movements when the bollinger bands got anywhere near this close...
Also, there is a years long trend line on RSI.. and another trendline to notice on MACD.
I can't be sure, but just considering mining costs, the price of silver can only go so low.
Also, there is threat of inflation (as well as deflation) and there have long been publications about global dwindling supply of silver and COMEX rigging with JP Morgan and HSBC and a whole bunch of games with the paper price of silver while the real physical metal is acquired...on and on...
Anyway, be on a lookout for silver to finally spring after being coiled for so long.
Silver Breakout soon? Possible small retrace.Ive been watching silver for quite some time now, and I can say I feel fortunate to be around for this long 20 consolidation coming to the next step.
This chart is fairly simple, as it should be.
Looking at the weekly, you can see the squeeze performing for the last 4 weeks, which would be a first, (or second if your counting 2015 in march, which went short)
Also we have our moku cloud cross, and our wedge of the last 3 years it has respected perfectly is coming to a point. Ironically the point is ending at new years almost exactly.
This leads me to believe that our DOW crash in the beginning of the year could have been worse, but "delayed" to this coming new years instead.
If the safe haven silver is "expected" to break out, but only in "bad times", it would make perfect sense for it to break out considering the DOW is ready for a bigger dip, and new years can create market fluctuations.
I believe silver could dip to 14 before its next inevitable bull run.
Silver is extremely undervalued, with the most room for gains compared to gold, and people will start to realize that much quicker then we think. Ill continue to stack silver.
Happy Trading!
AG upward channelOn one hand, it retraced to the .786 line of the Aug 2016 high on June 14...
On the other hand, it is at the bottom of a channel... MACD on pace to cross over on the 3 hr.
Leaning long, but not placing trade at this moment...May be something to keep an eye on... ill look at options prices today.
Travis
JMJ - UIOGD
OPENING: SLV JULY 20TH 16 SHORT/OCT 19TH 13 LONG PUT DIAGONAL... for an .79/contract credit.
Taking a directional shot here on silver weakness. In essence, it's a synthetic covered call with the short put aspect of the setup around the 70 delta. The long put is thrown in to bring in buying power effect over the naked for those that are working in a cash secured environment. On margin, you won't be saving much in buying power by buying the long ... .
Will look to take profit on just the short aspect at 50% max and look to reuse the long if another bullish assumption setup presents itself between now and October ... .
Silver - Price in Bottom of Range of the SLV, Is It Going Up?Silver - still a good entry point as the last couple days, and moving up from the bottom of its range.
There is a whole, whole lot going on in the silver (and gold) story, but that's another article. For now I'd like to point out some action on the SLV 's chart.
Silver has been bouncing in a tight range for much of 2018. Buying in the low $15's and selling on the way up has worked for a lot of this year. Betting against silver has worked too, but because of the accumulation of physical silver by several large entities and for other reasons, I don't believe price will stay this low much longer.
Silver is being pushed lower by a stronger dollar, rising yields, and a host of other factors including competition with cryptocurrencies as a place for capital to go. But sentiment is rising for silver as a standby that, put bluntly, isn't gold and isn't subject to gold's issues; in addition to being recognized as a safe asset that has strong potential for appreciation as other things - markets, stocks, bonds, cryptos, presidents, deals, etc. - decide what they want to do.
In the interest of simply disseminating a good entry point in the SLV and saving a more in-depth article for later this week, I'll cut this short and just point out the action in SLV's price - indicators and patterns alike are pointing to upward movement out of the bottom of the range.
Please like, follow, and share, and maybe we can have fun and do great things together.
Thanks again!
See it on the site: holsturr.com/category/markets/charts/
** For speculative and research purposes only - good luck! **
XAGUSD - Watching for bullish price action from key supportSilver has reached a key support level. Price action has been range bound for a long time which means we will be looking to trade off of key support/resistance levels. Silver has reached the bottom of it's sideways range and will absolutely need to hold to prevent a bearish trend. It's the moment of truth for the bulls. We will be watching for any bullish price action to get long at this level. That may come in the form of bullish pinbars, morning star, engulfing bars, etc.
Fourth time the charm for Silver?Silver shot up to resistance several weeks back but dropped hard testing support. My expectation was that if silver once again failed to break out to a higher high, it could break out of the pennant and drop, building a bear channel.
It appears that silver is now set up for another three week test of the high. As the arrows point out, the last three times we had a similar setup, price failed. Forth time could be the charm. If not, might be the last chance to get out before much lower prices.
The Stock Market Swings From Bullish Signs to Stop Signs.A snipper from my latest post.... drduru.com
The stock market faded from bullish undertones and back into the resting position. Now we can just look back at what could have been.
For the first time in a long time, I feel compelled to change my short-term trading call from neutral. While the S&P 500 (SPY) still sits well within a trading range of churn, I see several signals which give me bearish vibes starting with my favorite technical indicator: AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs).
Through Wednesday, April 18th, AT40 rallied relatively consistently with 9 up days out of 12 trading days. The last two up days featured weakening momentum and the top, an intraday high of 67.6%, came just short of the overbought threshold of 70%. I typically interpret a rejection at the overbought threshold as a bearish event. I am particularly keen to follow this interpretation given a similar rejection preceded the big February sell-off, and I was very slow to react to that rejection. AT40 swiftly fell all the way back to 55.2% to close the week. I am now eager to see AT40 hold a higher low.
The S&P 500 (SPY) provided one component of a bearish confirmation. At its last high, the index closed just about even with its close after the Fed’s last decision on monetary policy. Not only did the index fail to maintain momentum from there, but also the subsequent selling pushed the S&P 500 right back below its 50DMA. The NASDAQ and the PowerShares QQQ ETF (QQQ) both pulled up short of their post-Fed closes before dipping below their 50DMAs to the end the week.
The volatility index, the VIX, might as well have sealed the deal. Last week, the VIX traded right down to the 15.35 pivot and convincingly held that level as support over the next 3 trading days. While the VIX did not pop as much as I would have expected, I am still respecting this hold of support. I am staying patient before shorting the iPath® S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures™ ETN (VXX) again, and I am holding onto call options on the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY).
The Australian dollar (FXA) versus the Japanese yen (FXY) provided one more piece to the puzzle by breaking down below its 50DMA again. Just a week ago, AUD/JPY looked like it was leading financial markets higher. Now it looks set to grease the skids pointing downward....